NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

Team	W-L	GB	Strk
Brewers	47-29	-	W2
Cardinals	42-34	5.0	W2
Cubs	40-37	7.5	L1
Pirates	39-39	9.0	W1
Reds	37-40	10.5	L1

NL WEST STANDINGS

Team	W-L	GB	Strk
Dodgers	50-29	-	W1
Padres	40-37	9.0	W1
D-backs	39-39	10.5	L3
Giants	31-46	18.0	L3
Rockies	31-48	19.0	W1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

Date	Opp	H/A	Result
Jun 22	ARI	Home	W 3-2
Jun 21	KC	Away	W 12-10
Jun 19	KC	Away	L 5-6
Jun 18	KC	Away	L 6-14
Jun 17	SD	Home	L 1-6
Jun 16	SD	Home	W 3-2
Jun 15	SD	Home	W 3-0
Jun 14	MIN	Away	L 4-5
Jun 13	MIN	Away	W 9-6
Jun 12	MIN	Away	L 8-9

STARTING PITCHERS

Kyle Leahy (R)

2026 to date: 5-4, 4.63 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 70.0 IP, 59 K, 26 BB across 14 GS, 9 HR allowed. 2025 baseline: 22.0% K% and 7.7% BB% over 88.0 IP, 2.86 K/BB. Home/away gap is the loud signal -- 2.68 ERA on the road, 4.47 at home in his 2025 sample, and tonight is Busch.

Eduardo Rodriguez (L)

2026 to date: 6-2, 2.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 88.1 IP, 65 K, 35 BB across 15 GS. 2025 baseline: 20.6% K% and 8.6% BB% over 154.1 IP, 2.38 K/BB. Reverse TTO pattern -- 2025 OPS allowed climbed down by pass: .886 first, .819 second, .727 third. He sharpens with each turn through the order.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-22)

#	Player	Pos	Bats	2026 RISP AVG	2026 RISP OPS
1	Wetherholt	2B	L	.309	.875
2	Herrera	DH	R	.206	.715
3	Burleson	1B	L	.337	.888
4	Walker	RF	R	.304	.969
5	Nootbaar	LF	L	.111	.560
6	Winn	SS	R	.200	.580
7	Crooks	C	L	.300	1.064
8	Gorman	3B	L	--	--
9	Church	CF	L	.273	.621

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Diamondbacks (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

Player	Pos	Bats
Castillo	DH	L
Carroll	RF	L
Moreno	C	R
Perdomo	SS	S
Vargas	1B	S
Barrosa	CF	S
Marte	2B	S
Gurriel	LF	R
Groover	1B	R
Arenado	3B	R
Smith	DH	L
Tawa	LF	R
Troy	LF	R

Handedness: 6 RHB (Moreno, Gurriel, Groover, Arenado, Tawa, Troy), 3 LHB (Castillo, Carroll, Smith).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move details are available for tonight beyond what is reflected in the active rosters above.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

No Cardinals batter has a career plate appearance against Rodriguez in the career BvP sample. This is a profile bet, not a history bet -- lean on the platoon table (2C) and the TTO pattern (2E).

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Rodriguez.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Player	PA	AB	H	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Ketel Marte	2	2	1	.500	.500	1.000	0	0	0
Geraldo Perdomo	1	1	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	0	0	0
Corbin Carroll	1	1	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	1
Lourdes Gurriel	2	1	1	1.000	.500	1.000	0	0	0

Small sample: Ketel Marte (2 PA), Geraldo Perdomo (1 PA), Corbin Carroll (1 PA), Lourdes Gurriel (2 PA).

All four ARI rows above are small samples -- Marte 1-for-2, Perdomo 1-for-1, Carroll 0-for-1 (K), Gurriel 1-for-1. The slash lines look loud but carry essentially no predictive weight. The career ARI vs Leahy sample is functionally blank.

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Leahy beyond the four rows above.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Lars Nootbaar L	180	.201	.291	.289	3	17	47
Masyn Winn R	163	.255	.313	.349	2	11	31
Alec Burleson L	127	.271	.310	.398	3	7	20
Iván Herrera R	124	.330	.455	.660	9	19	18
Jordan Walker R	107	.255	.318	.347	2	8	32
Nathan Church L	14	.417	.417	.500	0	0	4
Jimmy Crooks L	8	.250	.250	.625	1	0	2

Cardinals lineup is 6 LHB / 3 RHB against a left-handed starter -- the wrong handedness mix on paper. Herrera (.330/.455/.660 in 124 PA, 9 HR -- 2025 vs LHP) is the elite platoon weapon and bats 2nd. Walker (.255/.318/.347) and Winn (.255/.313/.349) are league-average vs LHP. On the LHB side, Burleson (.271/.310/.398) plays acceptably, but Nootbaar's .201/.291/.289 in 180 PA is the loud weakness. Church (14 PA) and Crooks (8 PA) are tiny samples -- do not lean.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Geraldo Perdomo B	501	.267	.378	.451	14	68	68
Corbin Carroll L	443	.267	.354	.575	24	50	109
Lourdes Gurriel R	390	.229	.272	.413	14	18	64
Ketel Marte B	373	.286	.375	.516	19	43	58
Nolan Arenado R	324	.217	.272	.368	10	20	42
Pavin Smith L	264	.265	.361	.456	8	35	83
Gabriel Moreno R	232	.287	.353	.445	8	21	42
Tim Tawa R	143	.169	.262	.355	6	15	40
Ildemaro Vargas B	69	.277	.294	.385	1	1	9
Jorge Barrosa B	33	.125	.121	.156	0	0	11

ARI vs RHP in 2025: three bats stand out at the top of the table -- Perdomo (.267/.378/.451 in 501 PA), Carroll (.267/.354/.575 with 24 HR in 443 PA), and Marte (.286/.375/.516 with 19 HR in 373 PA, switch-hitter). The middle softens: Gurriel .229, Arenado .217. Tawa (.169 in 143 PA) and Barrosa (.125 in 33 PA) are the weak spots Leahy can hunt.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Pitcher	vs	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	K
Kyle Leahy	vs LHB	163	.252	.337	.364	.701	3	37
Kyle Leahy	vs RHB	200	.238	.270	.319	.589	2	43
Eduardo Rodriguez	vs RHB	543	.281	.351	.474	.825	21	114
Eduardo Rodriguez	vs LHB	151	.303	.333	.479	.812	4	29

Leahy is tougher on RHB than LHB in 2025: .238 AVG / .589 OPS vs RHB (200 PA, 43 K) vs .252 / .701 vs LHB (163 PA, 37 K). Tonight's ARI roster pool is 6 RHB, 3 LHB, 4 switch-hitters -- a likely RHB-heavy lineup that maps to Leahy's stronger side. Rodriguez is vulnerable to both sides: .281/.825 OPS vs RHB and .303/.812 vs LHB. The SLG values are nearly identical -- pitcher handedness gives little protection either way.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Pitcher	Split	BF	IP	ERA	K	BB	HR
Kyle Leahy	Away	173	43.2	2.68	46	13	2
Kyle Leahy	Home	190	44.1	4.47	34	15	3
Eduardo Rodriguez	Away	368	82.0	4.61	89	30	14
Eduardo Rodriguez	Home	326	72.1	4.73	54	30	11

Tonight is at Busch Stadium -- Leahy's worse 2025 split (4.47 ERA at home, 2.68 away). Nearly two runs of separation between the two contexts, and the K rate falls at home as well (34 K home vs 46 away). Rodriguez's 2025 home/away ERA is close (4.73/4.61), and tonight he is on the road -- a fractionally more favorable context for him.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Pitcher	TTO	PA	AVG	SLG	OPS	HR	K	BB
Kyle Leahy	TTO1	355	.247	.341	.645	5	76	28
Kyle Leahy	TTO2	8	.125	.250	.375	0	4	0
Eduardo Rodriguez	TTO1	262	.315	.523	.886	10	62	18
Eduardo Rodriguez	TTO2	257	.296	.461	.819	8	47	23
Eduardo Rodriguez	TTO3	175	.224	.421	.727	7	34	19

Leahy in 2025 was almost entirely a first-pass-through-the-order pitcher: 355 PA on TTO1 (.247 AVG, .645 OPS) versus only 8 PA on TTO2 (the second pass through the order). He rarely gets a second look as a starter, which means the bullpen typically carries innings 4 and beyond on his nights. Rodriguez shows a reverse-TTO curve in 2025 -- .886 OPS first pass, .819 second pass, .727 third pass. He gets sharper with each pass, so the window to score on him is the first pass through the order.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

Reliever	IR	Scored	Strand%
Kyle Leahy	29	11	62.1%
JoJo Romero	26	3	88.5%
Matt Svanson	26	13	50.0%
Gordon Graceffo	11	5	54.5%
Riley O'Brien	10	3	70.0%
Michael McGreevy	3	0	100.0%

Romero (88.5% strand on 26 IR) is the elite anchor in this pen and well above the league-average proxy near 68.8%. McGreevy is a perfect 3-for-3 (tiny sample). Svanson (50.0% on 26 IR) and Graceffo (54.5% on 11 IR) are the leaks -- both meaningfully below league. Leahy's own 62.1% on 29 IR sits just under league average. If a starter exits with traffic tonight, which arm enters is the highest-leverage decision of the game.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Pitcher	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Kyle Leahy	249	44.2%	26.9%	27.7%
Eduardo Rodriguez	464	38.8%	31.7%	27.6%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- ARI

Hitter	GB AVG	LD AVG	FB AVG
Nolan Arenado	.223	.560	.089
Jorge Barrosa	.182	.333	.067
Corbin Carroll	.250	.681	.101
Lourdes Gurriel	.253	.570	.022
Ketel Marte	.206	.702	.124
Gabriel Moreno	.326	.587	.063
Geraldo Perdomo	.209	.684	.103
Pavin Smith	.308	.690	.162
Tim Tawa	.235	.500	.114
Ildemaro Vargas	.241	.786	.125

Leahy's 2025 GB% is 44.2% (249 BIP) -- a moderate ground-ball lean. Rodriguez sits at 38.8% GB. The ARI line-drive numbers are the loud read: Marte .702 AVG on line drives, Vargas .786 (small AB), Smith .690, Perdomo .684, Carroll .681, Moreno .587, Arenado .560, Gurriel .570. Every ARI starter except Tawa and Barrosa is above .500 on line drives. The collision tonight is Leahy's GB rate against an ARI lineup that punishes anything left in the air.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Catcher	G	IP	ERA	AVG	OBP	SLG
Pedro Pagés	43	62.0	3.05	.225	--	--
Yohel Pozo	13	16.0	2.25	.259	--	--
Jimmy Crooks	4	6.1	8.53	.346	--	--
Iván Herrera	4	3.0	6.00	.308	--	--

The table includes Yohel Pozo (13 G, 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA), who is not on tonight's active roster -- those numbers reflect his earlier-season catching work. Tonight's starting catcher is Jimmy Crooks (4 G, 6.1 IP, 8.53 ERA, .346 AVG against), who appears in the lineup at the 7-hole. Crooks's 2026 sample with STL pitchers is small, and his ERA-against is the worst of the four catchers, but 6.1 IP is too thin to project. With Leahy specifically, this is effectively a fresh battery: pop-time calibration and pitch-mix sequencing are still building, which is itself the scouting angle -- look for early-count tells.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Carroll: 32 SB, 6 CS, 84.2% success rate -- the elite running threat in the ARI roster pool.

Perdomo: 27 SB, 6 CS, 81.8% success rate -- the second high-volume runner.

Gurriel: 10 SB, 4 CS, 71.4% success rate -- moderate threat.

Tawa: 8 SB, 2 CS, 80.0% success rate.

Marte: 4 SB, 2 CS, 66.7% success rate -- low volume.

Arenado: 3 SB, 0 CS, 100% success rate -- selective runner.

Smith / Moreno: 2 SB each, 50.0% success rate -- not credible threats.

On the STL side, Church went 1-for-1 in stolen-base attempts in Game 1 -- the team's running profile is situational, not high-volume. With Crooks behind the plate working a small 2026 catching sample, Carroll and Perdomo at the top of the order are the night's primary baserunning pressure.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Player	POS	G	DP	E	Fld%
Masyn Winn	SS	129	64	3	0.994
Jordan Walker	RF	108	2	4	0.981
Lars Nootbaar	LF	107	0	0	1.000
Alec Burleson	1B	50	27	4	0.990
Alec Burleson	LF	41	0	0	1.000
Alec Burleson	RF	34	1	1	0.983
Lars Nootbaar	RF	23	0	0	1.000
Nathan Church	CF	18	0	0	1.000
Jimmy Crooks	C	14	0	0	1.000
Iván Herrera	C	14	0	1	0.989
Lars Nootbaar	CF	12	0	1	0.967
Nathan Church	RF	7	0	1	0.833
Nathan Church	LF	5	0	0	1.000
Iván Herrera	LF	4	0	0	1.000
Alec Burleson	P	1	0	0	--

Winn at SS (129 G, .994 fld%, 64 DPs turned) is the elite glove and the primary GB defender behind a 44.2% GB pitcher. Nootbaar in LF is perfect on 107 G. Burleson at 1B (.990 in 50 G) is the everyday corner, and Walker is the regular RF (.981 in 108 G, 4 E). Crooks behind the plate is clean in his 14-game catching sample (no errors), though that does not address pop-time vs Carroll/Perdomo. Tonight's lineup card sets Wetherholt at 2B and Gorman at 3B -- neither carries a 2025 sample in the table above. The infield's biggest leverage tonight is Winn turning grounders into outs.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Cardinals and Diamondbacks have split the season series each year from 2023 through 2025 (3-3 every year). The 2022 series leaned STL at 5-2. Tonight Busch Stadium plays as a neutral venue -- the available 2025 head-to-head data does not carry a numeric park factor. STL leads the current four-game set 1-0 after Game 1's 3-2 win.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Player	PA	K	K%	BB	BB%
Lars Nootbaar	583	119	20.4%	64	11.0%
Alec Burleson	544	79	14.5%	39	7.2%
Masyn Winn	537	102	19.0%	34	6.3%
Iván Herrera	450	84	18.7%	43	9.6%
Jordan Walker	396	126	31.8%	29	7.3%
Nathan Church	65	18	27.7%	3	4.6%
Jimmy Crooks	46	17	37.0%	0	0.0%

Walker's 31.8% 2025 K% and Crooks's 37.0% 2025 K% (46 PA -- small) are the flags. Crooks's 0.0% BB% on 46 PA is the more concerning marker. Burleson (14.5% K%, 7.2% BB%) and Herrera (18.7%, 9.6%) are the disciplined bats; Nootbaar's 11.0% BB% leads the table.

Diamondbacks

Player	PA	K	K%	BB	BB%
Geraldo Perdomo	720	83	11.5%	94	13.1%
Corbin Carroll	642	153	23.8%	67	10.4%
Ketel Marte	556	83	14.9%	64	11.5%
Lourdes Gurriel	546	76	13.9%	31	5.7%
Nolan Arenado	436	49	11.2%	28	6.4%
Gabriel Moreno	309	53	17.2%	29	9.4%
Pavin Smith	287	92	32.1%	41	14.3%
Tim Tawa	225	64	28.4%	20	8.9%
Ildemaro Vargas	121	15	12.4%	2	1.7%
Jorge Barrosa	77	22	28.6%	2	2.6%

2025 K% flags across the ARI pool: Smith 32.1%, Barrosa 28.6%, Tawa 28.4%, Carroll 23.8% -- four high-K bats. Against Leahy's 22.0% 2025 K%, the K-game scoring floor is real. Perdomo (11.5% K%, 13.1% BB%) and Arenado (11.2% K%) are the contact-first profiles -- the bats Leahy cannot bypass with strikeouts. Smith's 14.3% BB% is the highest in the lineup pool; he is also the highest-K bat -- a true three-true-outcomes profile.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Player	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Alec Burleson	398	42.0%	33.4%	24.6%
Masyn Winn	376	39.6%	34.0%	26.3%
Lars Nootbaar	376	39.1%	35.4%	25.5%
Iván Herrera	285	52.6%	21.8%	25.6%
Jordan Walker	231	48.9%	29.4%	21.6%
Nathan Church	37	67.6%	21.6%	10.8%
Jimmy Crooks	27	37.0%	44.4%	18.5%

Herrera 52.6% GB% and Church 67.6% GB% lead the ground-ball lean. Crooks's 44.4% FB% (27 BIP -- small) is unusual for the lineup. Against Rodriguez's 38.8% GB rate, the fly-ball bats (Crooks, Nootbaar, Winn) have the angle of attack that maps cleanest.

Diamondbacks

Player	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Geraldo Perdomo	484	40.5%	32.0%	27.5%
Lourdes Gurriel	405	40.0%	33.6%	26.4%
Corbin Carroll	380	38.9%	36.3%	24.7%
Ketel Marte	370	44.6%	32.7%	22.7%
Nolan Arenado	340	38.2%	39.7%	22.1%
Gabriel Moreno	215	41.4%	29.3%	29.3%
Pavin Smith	144	45.1%	25.7%	29.2%
Tim Tawa	127	53.5%	27.6%	18.9%
Ildemaro Vargas	96	60.4%	25.0%	14.6%
Jorge Barrosa	46	47.8%	32.6%	19.6%

Tawa 53.5% 2025 GB% and Vargas 60.4% are the ground-ball leans. Arenado's 39.7% 2025 FB% leads the table -- a fly-ball-heavy bat meeting Leahy's 44.2% GB profile, the matchup that pushes the most contact onto the infield. Moreno's 29.3% LD% and Smith's 29.2% LD% are the loud line-drive flags (refer to 2G for the slugging conversion).

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Pitcher	IP	K	K%	BB	BB%	K/BB
Eduardo Rodriguez	154.1	143	20.6%	60	8.6%	2.38
Kyle Leahy	88.0	80	22.0%	28	7.7%	2.86

Leahy carries the stronger 2025 K/BB ratio at 2.86 (22.0% K%, 7.7% BB%), Rodriguez at 2.38 (20.6% K%, 8.6% BB%) over a much larger sample (694 BFP). Both cluster around the league-average BB% benchmark of 9.1%. The K% gap is real but narrow -- both pitchers should miss bats at a roughly league-average clip.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Herrera vs Rodriguez. Herrera's 2025 vs LHP line is .330/.455/.660 in 124 PA, 9 HR -- the elite STL platoon edge, batting 2nd. Rodriguez's first-pass-through-the-order line (.315 AVG / .886 OPS) is his most exposed window. The first-inning at-bat is the game's pivot.

Carroll vs Leahy. Carroll is 0-for-1 with a K in the lone career meeting, but his 2025 vs RHP profile (.267/.354/.575, 24 HR, .681 line-drive AVG) is real. Leahy at home in 2025 surrendered 22 ER in 44.1 IP (4.47 ERA, 3 HR) -- the more vulnerable version of him.

Marte vs Leahy. Marte hit .286/.375/.516 vs RHP in 2025 (19 HR, .702 line-drive AVG) and is 1-for-2 career vs Leahy. As a switch-hitter, he gets the natural-side at-bat tonight.

X-factor: Leahy-Crooks battery. Crooks has 6.1 IP behind STL pitchers in 2026 with an 8.53 ERA -- a small but ugly sample. Tonight is essentially a fresh battery against an ARI offense that runs (Carroll 32 SB at 84.2%, Perdomo 27 SB at 81.8%). Pop-time calibration and pitch-mix sequencing are on display.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Ivan Herrera performed against Eduardo Rodriguez in their career?

2. How has Kyle Leahy fared against Corbin Carroll in their career?

3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Ketel Marte in their career?

4. What are Kyle Leahy's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Corbin Carroll's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?