NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 46-29 | - | W1 |
| Cardinals | 41-34 | 5.0 | W1 |
| Cubs | 40-37 | 7.0 | L1 |
| Pirates | 39-39 | 8.5 | W1 |
| Reds | 37-39 | 9.5 | W2 |
NL WEST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 49-29 | - | L2 |
| Padres | 39-37 | 9.0 | L1 |
| D-backs | 39-38 | 9.5 | L2 |
| Giants | 31-46 | 17.5 | L3 |
| Rockies | 30-48 | 19.0 | L1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21 | KC | Away | W 12-10 |
| Jun 19 | KC | Away | L 5-6 |
| Jun 18 | KC | Away | L 6-14 |
| Jun 17 | SD | Home | L 1-6 |
| Jun 16 | SD | Home | W 3-2 |
| Jun 15 | SD | Home | W 3-0 |
| Jun 14 | MIN | Away | L 4-5 |
| Jun 13 | MIN | Away | W 9-6 |
| Jun 12 | MIN | Away | L 8-9 |
| Jun 11 | NYM | Away | L 4-5 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Andre Pallante (R) -- Cardinals
2026 to date: 8-4, 3.76 ERA in 76.2 IP across 14 starts, 1.20 WHIP, 62 K (19.3% K%), 25 BB (7.8% BB%), 9 HR allowed, 59.5% GB rate. 2025 baseline: 162.2 IP, 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.79 K/BB. Ground-ball profile (61.2% career GB%) is his signature; the second pass through the order is where contact quality turns on him.
Merrill Kelly (R) -- Diamondbacks
2026 to date: 5-6, 5.81 ERA in 69.2 IP across 12 starts, 1.51 WHIP, 42 K (13.6% K%), 28 BB (9.1% BB%), 15 HR allowed in 69.2 IP, 42.8% GB rate. 2025 baseline: 184.0 IP, 22.3% K%, 6.4% BB%, 3.48 K/BB. The strikeout shape from a year ago has not held up in 2026 -- the walk and HR rates are both up, the GB rate is down.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-21)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .315 | .889 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .210 | .718 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .329 | .869 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .311 | .990 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .118 | .591 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .200 | .580 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .333 | 1.178 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | -- | -- |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .250 | .579 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Diamondbacks (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Castillo | DH | L |
| Carroll | RF | L |
| Moreno | C | R |
| Perdomo | SS | S |
| Vargas | 1B | S |
| Barrosa | CF | S |
| Marte | 2B | S |
| Gurriel | LF | R |
| Groover | 1B | R |
| Arenado | 3B | R |
| Smith | DH | L |
| Tawa | LF | R |
| Troy | LF | R |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Moreno, Gurriel, Groover, Arenado, Tawa, Troy), 3 LHB (Castillo, Carroll, Smith), 4 SHB (Perdomo, Vargas, Barrosa, Marte).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move data is available for today. The opponent lineup is from active roster only -- batting order will be confirmed at first pitch.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 11 | 9 | 2 | .222 | .364 | .556 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Alec Burleson | 9 | 8 | 1 | .125 | .222 | .125 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 9 | 7 | 1 | .143 | .333 | .286 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Masyn Winn | 6 | 6 | 1 | .167 | .167 | .167 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Iván Herrera | 6 | 6 | 2 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Alec Burleson (9 PA), Jordan Walker (9 PA), Masyn Winn (6 PA), Iván Herrera (6 PA).
Nootbaar's HR in 9 AB is the only extra-base hit anyone has off Kelly in the career BvP sample; that and Herrera's .333 are the brighter spots. Burleson, Walker, and Winn are all under .200 in 6-8 AB. Wetherholt, Gorman, and Church have no career BvP rows -- this is a profile-driven matchup, not a history-driven one. Lean on Kelly's 2026 ERA (5.81) and his 2025 reverse-platoon (vs LHB .222/.281/.428, 17 HR) over these small histories.
Bench note: No bench BvP rows against Kelly in the career sample (Jordan, Torres, Velazquez, Fermin, Pages all without history).
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geraldo Perdomo | 7 | 6 | 2 | .333 | .429 | .667 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Lourdes Gurriel | 6 | 6 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Corbin Carroll | 7 | 5 | 2 | .400 | .571 | .400 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Ketel Marte | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pavin Smith | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 2.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Geraldo Perdomo (7 PA), Lourdes Gurriel (6 PA), Corbin Carroll (7 PA), Ketel Marte (3 PA), Pavin Smith (2 PA), Ildemaro Vargas (2 PA), Gabriel Moreno (1 PA).
Carroll and Perdomo, the two most likely top-of-order bats, are the only Arizona hitters with positive career numbers off Pallante: Carroll .400/.571/.400 in 7 PA, Perdomo .333/.429/.667 in 7 PA. Combined, that is 4-for-11 with 3 BB and 1 K. Pavin Smith's 1-for-2 with a HR is the eye-catcher but the sample is too thin to weigh; Gurriel is 0-for-6 with 1 K. Castillo, Barrosa, Groover, Arenado, Tawa, and Troy have no career BvP rows -- Pallante is making first or near-first impressions on most of the back end.
Bench note: No additional Arizona career BvP rows beyond the table above; the active-roster pool spans 13 names but only 7 carry any history vs Pallante.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Lars Nootbaar L | 403 | .249 | .340 | .394 | 10 | 47 | 72 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Iván Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 38 | .108 | .132 | .162 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Against a right-hander, Burleson is the standout: .296/.353/.478 in 419 PA with 15 HR in 2025. Nootbaar (.249/.340/.394) and Herrera (.268/.343/.399) are both above-average on-base profiles vs RHP. Walker's 2025 vs RHP is the soft spot in the heart of the order -- .200/.263/.291 with 94 K in 289 PA. Church and Crooks have small 2025 vs RHP samples (51 and 38 PA) and have struggled in both. Wetherholt and Gorman have no 2025 vs RHP sample on file.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geraldo Perdomo B | 501 | .267 | .378 | .451 | 14 | 68 | 68 |
| Corbin Carroll L | 443 | .267 | .354 | .575 | 24 | 50 | 109 |
| Lourdes Gurriel R | 390 | .229 | .272 | .413 | 14 | 18 | 64 |
| Ketel Marte B | 373 | .286 | .375 | .516 | 19 | 43 | 58 |
| Nolan Arenado R | 324 | .217 | .272 | .368 | 10 | 20 | 42 |
| Pavin Smith L | 264 | .265 | .361 | .456 | 8 | 35 | 83 |
| Gabriel Moreno R | 232 | .287 | .353 | .445 | 8 | 21 | 42 |
| Tim Tawa R | 143 | .169 | .262 | .355 | 6 | 15 | 40 |
| Ildemaro Vargas B | 69 | .277 | .294 | .385 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| Jorge Barrosa B | 33 | .125 | .121 | .156 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
The Arizona top tier against right-handers in 2025 is a problem: Carroll .267/.354/.575 with 24 HR in 443 PA, Marte .286/.375/.516 with 19 HR in 373 PA, Perdomo .267/.378/.451 with 14 HR and 68 BB in 501 PA, Smith .265/.361/.456 in 264 PA. Moreno (.287/.353/.445) is the catcher landmine. The soft spots vs RHP are Gurriel (.229/.272/.413, walks 18 times in 390 PA), Arenado (.217/.272/.368), Tawa (.169/.262/.355), and Barrosa (.125/.121/.156 in 33 PA). Castillo, Groover, and Troy have no 2025 vs RHP sample listed.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | vs LHB | 399 | .222 | .281 | .428 | .709 | 17 | 81 |
| Merrill Kelly | vs RHB | 349 | .229 | .273 | .333 | .606 | 6 | 86 |
| Andre Pallante | vs LHB | 347 | .266 | .329 | .434 | .763 | 10 | 60 |
| Andre Pallante | vs RHB | 368 | .275 | .345 | .429 | .774 | 11 | 51 |
Reverse platoon both ways. Kelly is a right-hander whose 2025 vs LHB .428 SLG and 17 HR (399 PA) dwarf his vs RHB .333 SLG and 6 HR (349 PA) -- and tonight's Cardinals lineup is 6 LHB / 3 RHB. Pallante is closer to neutral; vs LHB .266/.329/.434 (.763 OPS) is fractionally better than vs RHB .275/.345/.429 (.774 OPS). The right-hand side of Arizona's order (Gurriel, Arenado, Moreno, Tawa, Troy) is exactly the matchup where Pallante's worse number lives.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Away | 338 | 86.0 | 3.45 | 72 | 16 | 10 |
| Merrill Kelly | Home | 410 | 98.0 | 3.40 | 95 | 32 | 13 |
| Andre Pallante | Away | 375 | 84.2 | 4.89 | 67 | 35 | 11 |
| Andre Pallante | Home | 340 | 78.0 | 5.42 | 44 | 27 | 10 |
Tonight's game is at Busch -- Pallante pitching at home. His career split here is 5.42 ERA at home vs 4.89 on the road, with notably fewer Ks at home (44 vs 67) on more innings of road work. Kelly's career splits are nearly even (3.45 away / 3.40 home), so the venue does not help Arizona's starter the way it might typically help a visiting righty.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | TTO1 | 289 | .200 | .358 | .621 | 10 | 77 | 21 |
| Merrill Kelly | TTO2 | 288 | .208 | .342 | .600 | 7 | 60 | 18 |
| Merrill Kelly | TTO3 | 171 | .296 | .494 | .827 | 6 | 30 | 9 |
| Andre Pallante | TTO1 | 279 | .266 | .393 | .720 | 6 | 35 | 21 |
| Andre Pallante | TTO2 | 270 | .309 | .487 | .868 | 8 | 46 | 27 |
| Andre Pallante | TTO3 | 166 | .217 | .408 | .691 | 7 | 30 | 14 |
Two starters with opposite TTO shapes. Kelly is a classic first-and-second-pass strikeout artist in 2025 (.200 AVG TTO1, .208 AVG TTO2) who falls off a cliff the third time through: .296 AVG, .494 SLG, .827 OPS in the third pass through the order (171 PA). Pallante is the inverse -- 2025 TTO1 is solid (.266/.327/.393), the second pass through the order is the danger zone (.309/.381/.487, .868 OPS in 270 PA), and the third pass actually settles back down (.217 AVG, .691 OPS). For Pallante, innings 4-6 is when the matchup turns; for Kelly, the trouble starts when the order flips a third time.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
Romero (88.5% strand on 26 IR) and McGreevy (100% on 3 IR) are well above league average (~68-72%). Leahy and O'Brien are roughly league average. Svanson (50.0% on 26 IR) and Graceffo (54.5% on 11 IR) are the danger arms with runners on. Which arm gets the call after Pallante's TTO2 turn is the leverage point.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 508 | 44.9% | 31.5% | 22.8% |
| Andre Pallante | 515 | 61.2% | 18.3% | 19.6% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- ARI
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | .223 | .560 | .089 |
| Jorge Barrosa | .182 | .333 | .067 |
| Corbin Carroll | .250 | .681 | .101 |
| Lourdes Gurriel | .253 | .570 | .022 |
| Ketel Marte | .206 | .702 | .124 |
| Gabriel Moreno | .326 | .587 | .063 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | .209 | .684 | .103 |
| Pavin Smith | .308 | .690 | .162 |
| Tim Tawa | .235 | .500 | .114 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | .241 | .786 | .125 |
Pallante is a 61.2% career GB pitcher meeting a lineup with multiple sub-.260 ground-ball averages (Marte .206, Perdomo .209, Arenado .223, Tawa .235). That is the favorable side of this matchup for the Cardinals. The risk is when those bats find a line -- Carroll .681, Perdomo .684, Smith .690, Marte .702, Vargas .786, Gurriel .570 on line drives. Keeping the ball on the ground keeps the damage off the wall.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 15 | 76.1 | 4.60 | .257 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 8 | 37.2 | 6.93 | .303 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 5 | 23.1 | 4.24 | .258 | -- | -- |
| Iván Herrera | 5 | 23.2 | 4.56 | .271 | -- | -- |
All four catchers above are on the active roster (Pagés, Crooks, Herrera on the Cardinals; Pozo's row aggregates earlier-tenure work). Tonight's starting catcher is Jimmy Crooks (lineup #7) -- 5 games, 23.1 IP with Pallante in the available sample, .258 AVG allowed and 4.24 ERA. The Pagés pairing has the largest body of work (15 G, 76.1 IP, 4.60 ERA). With Crooks's smaller paired sample, signal sequencing into Arizona's high-leverage running game (Carroll, Perdomo) is one to watch early.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Corbin Carroll -- 32 SB / 6 CS / 84.2% success rate. The premier speed threat in the Arizona lineup; live every time he reaches.
Geraldo Perdomo -- 27 SB / 6 CS / 81.8% success rate. Pairs with Carroll for a top-of-order running tandem.
Lourdes Gurriel -- 10 SB / 4 CS / 71.4% success rate.
Tim Tawa -- 8 SB / 2 CS / 80.0% success rate.
Ketel Marte -- 4 SB / 2 CS / 66.7% success rate.
Nolan Arenado -- 3 SB / 0 CS / 100.0% success rate.
Pavin Smith -- 2 SB / 2 CS / 50.0% success rate.
Gabriel Moreno -- 2 SB / 2 CS / 50.0% success rate.
Carroll and Perdomo together carry the bulk of the running threat. With Crooks behind the plate making one of his early starts paired with Pallante, controlling the first-to-second jump is a real game-state lever.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Tonight's defensive alignment per the lineup card: Winn at SS, Wetherholt at 2B, Burleson at 1B, Gorman at 3B, Nootbaar in LF, Church in CF, Walker in RF, Crooks behind the plate. Winn's .994 Fld% in 129 G at SS pairs well with Pallante's 61.2% GB profile -- a lot of tonight's outs will be hit on the ground at him. Burleson at 1B (50 G, .990 Fld%, 27 DP turned) is the primary infield receiver. The outfield range against Carroll and Marte line drives is where Walker and Nootbaar earn their reps.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Busch Stadium plays as a pitcher-leaning venue historically -- favorable context for Pallante's ground-ball profile and unfavorable for Kelly's fly-ball-prone 2026. Recent head-to-head (2022-2025) has been even: 3-3 in 2025, 3-3 in 2024, 3-3 in 2023, and a 5-2 Cardinals edge in 2022. No clear directional trend the last three seasons.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Burleson is the contact engine of this lineup: 14.5% 2025 K% in 544 PA. Walker (31.8% 2025 K%) and Crooks (37.0% 2025 K%) are the contact concerns vs Kelly's strikeout shape from a year ago. Crooks's 0.0% 2025 BB% on 46 PA is a small but eye-catching extreme.
Diamondbacks
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geraldo Perdomo | 720 | 83 | 11.5% | 94 | 13.1% |
| Corbin Carroll | 642 | 153 | 23.8% | 67 | 10.4% |
| Ketel Marte | 556 | 83 | 14.9% | 64 | 11.5% |
| Lourdes Gurriel | 546 | 76 | 13.9% | 31 | 5.7% |
| Nolan Arenado | 436 | 49 | 11.2% | 28 | 6.4% |
| Gabriel Moreno | 309 | 53 | 17.2% | 29 | 9.4% |
| Pavin Smith | 287 | 92 | 32.1% | 41 | 14.3% |
| Tim Tawa | 225 | 64 | 28.4% | 20 | 8.9% |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 121 | 15 | 12.4% | 2 | 1.7% |
| Jorge Barrosa | 77 | 22 | 28.6% | 2 | 2.6% |
Perdomo's 2025 11.5% K% / 13.1% BB% is the most patient profile in the room and matches up directly with Pallante's 8.7% 2025 BB%. Add Marte (11.5% 2025 BB%), Smith (14.3% 2025 BB%), and Carroll (10.4%) and Arizona has four bats who will work counts -- those deep counts are exactly the at-bats that drive Pallante into the TTO2 trouble zone. The strikeout exposures are concentrated lower in the order: Smith (32.1%), Barrosa (28.6%), and Tawa (28.4%).
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
Burleson, Winn, and Nootbaar all live in the high-20s LD% range in 2025 -- the contact shape that travels regardless of pitcher profile. Kelly's 42.8% 2026 GB rate is lower than typical, opening the air for the lineup's line-drive carriers. Church's 2025 67.6% GB rate flattens his upside.
Diamondbacks
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geraldo Perdomo | 484 | 40.5% | 32.0% | 27.5% |
| Lourdes Gurriel | 405 | 40.0% | 33.6% | 26.4% |
| Corbin Carroll | 380 | 38.9% | 36.3% | 24.7% |
| Ketel Marte | 370 | 44.6% | 32.7% | 22.7% |
| Nolan Arenado | 340 | 38.2% | 39.7% | 22.1% |
| Gabriel Moreno | 215 | 41.4% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| Pavin Smith | 144 | 45.1% | 25.7% | 29.2% |
| Tim Tawa | 127 | 53.5% | 27.6% | 18.9% |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 96 | 60.4% | 25.0% | 14.6% |
| Jorge Barrosa | 46 | 47.8% | 32.6% | 19.6% |
Pallante's 61.2% career GB rate against an Arizona lineup that averages roughly 41% 2025 GB and skews higher LD (Perdomo 27.5%, Moreno 29.3%, Smith 29.2%, Gurriel 26.4%). The pitcher's job is to keep the ball on the ground; the lineup's profile says they will try not to. Tawa (53.5% 2025 GB) and Vargas (60.4% 2025 GB) play more directly into Pallante's strength.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 184.0 | 167 | 22.3% | 48 | 6.4% | 3.48 |
| Andre Pallante | 162.2 | 111 | 15.5% | 62 | 8.7% | 1.79 |
2026 to date: Pallante is at 19.3% K% / 7.8% BB% in 76.2 IP; Kelly is at 13.6% K% / 9.1% BB% in 69.2 IP. 2025 baseline: Pallante 15.5% K% / 8.7% BB% / 1.79 K/BB (162.2 IP); Kelly 22.3% K% / 6.4% BB% / 3.48 K/BB (184.0 IP). The Kelly profile that worked last year (high K, low BB, strong K/BB) has flipped this year -- fewer strikeouts and more free passes. Pallante's strikeout rate is ticking upward year-over-year.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Burleson vs Kelly. The cleanest profile fit in the matchup. Burleson's 2025 vs RHP is .296/.353/.478 with 15 HR in 419 PA. Kelly's 2025 vs LHB carries an unusually loud SLG -- .222/.281/.428 with 17 HR allowed in 399 PA -- and the projected Cardinals order stacks 6 LHB. BvP is 9 PA (.125 AVG) and not the basis of the call.
Carroll vs Pallante. 2-for-5 with 2 BB in 7 career PA (.400/.571 line). Carroll's 2025 vs RHP is .267/.354/.575 with 24 HR in 443 PA. Pallante is a 61.2% career GB pitcher whose home ERA (5.42) sits above his road ERA (4.89) -- tonight is at Busch. Carroll's line-drive AVG (.681) is where the damage gets done.
Pallante's TTO2 window vs the Arizona walk profile. Pallante's 2025 TTO2 is .309/.381/.487 (.868 OPS); his 2025 TTO1 is .266/.327/.393 (.720 OPS). Arizona has four high-BB% bats (Perdomo 13.1%, Smith 14.3%, Marte 11.5%, Carroll 10.4% in 2025) -- their patience lengthens at-bats and pushes him into the second pass through the order with more pitches on the meter.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Merrill Kelly in their career?
2. How has Andre Pallante fared against Corbin Carroll in their career?
3. How has Andre Pallante performed against Geraldo Perdomo in their career?
4. What are Andre Pallante's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Alec Burleson's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025