NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers45-26-W3
Cardinals40-325.5L1
Cubs39-368.0W1
Pirates38-379.0W2
Reds35-3811.0L1

AL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Sox38-34-L2
Guardians39-35-L2
Twins35-404.5W3
Tigers30-449.0L2
Royals30-459.5W1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jun 17SDHomeL 1-6
Jun 16SDHomeW 3-2
Jun 15SDHomeW 3-0
Jun 14MINAwayL 4-5
Jun 13MINAwayW 9-6
Jun 12MINAwayL 8-9
Jun 11NYMAwayL 4-5
Jun 10NYMAwayW 9-2
Jun 9NYMAwayW 7-0
Jun 7CINHomeW 5-3

STARTING PITCHERS

Matthew Liberatore (L) -- Cardinals

2026 to date: 3-3, 4.71 ERA over 70.2 IP with 21.2% K%, 8.8% BB%, 1.50 WHIP, 14 HR allowed across 14 starts. 2025 baseline: 3.05 K/BB ratio over 151.2 IP (18.8% K%, 6.2% BB%) -- the strikeouts and command have both ticked the wrong direction year over year. 2025 home/road split was nearly even (3.69 ERA at home over 75.2 IP, 4.03 ERA on the road over 76.0 IP); tonight he pitches away from Busch.

Noah Cameron (L) -- Royals

2026 to date: 3-4, 4.11 ERA over 70.0 IP with 21.7% K%, 5.8% BB%, 1.21 WHIP, 8 HR allowed across 13 starts. 2025 baseline: 2.65 K/BB ratio over 138.1 IP (20.5% K%, 7.7% BB%) -- both ERA components moved the wrong way year over year. 2025 home ERA: 2.66 over 67.2 IP -- substantially better than his 2026 mark. He pitches at home tonight.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-17)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.320.858
2HerreraDHR.186.630
3Burleson1BL.337.893
4WalkerRFR.3141.009
5NootbaarLFL.083.583
6WinnSSR.167.484
7CrooksCL.3331.178
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.258.597

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Royals (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

PlayerPosBats
WittSSR
JensenCL
CollinsLFS
CaglianoneRFL
RaveRFL
MisnerCFL
ThomasCFR
Garcia3BR
Massey2BL
Loftin2BR
PerezCR
MarteRFR
Tolbert2BR

Handedness: 7 RHB (Witt, Thomas, Garcia, Loftin, Perez, Marte, Tolbert), 5 LHB (Jensen, Caglianone, Rave, Misner, Massey), 1 SHB (Collins).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move updates available for today.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Lars Nootbaar661.167.167.167000
Masyn Winn660.000.000.000002
Iván Herrera431.333.500.333010
Alec Burleson220.000.000.000000
Jordan Walker221.500.5002.000100

Small sample: Lars Nootbaar (6 PA), Masyn Winn (6 PA), Iván Herrera (4 PA), Alec Burleson (2 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA).

Five Cardinals carry any career history against Cameron, and all five sit at six PA or fewer. Herrera (4 PA, .333/.500/.333) and Walker (2 PA, 1-for-2 with a HR) lead the AVG column, but neither sample tells us much. Nootbaar and Winn carry the largest at-bats (6 PA each) and both come in cold -- Nootbaar 1-for-6, Winn 0-for-6 with 2 K. The lineup is essentially facing Cameron blind.

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Cameron in our career sample (Pages, Velazquez, Jordan, Fermin -- no rows).

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Salvador Perez774.571.5711.000100
Bobby Witt871.143.125.143001
Michael Massey662.333.333.333001
Starling Marte550.000.000.000001
Maikel Garcia742.500.7141.500131
Isaac Collins430.000.250.000011
Lane Thomas431.333.500.333011
Nick Loftin221.500.5001.000000
Jac Caglianone220.000.000.000001

Small sample: Salvador Perez (7 PA), Bobby Witt (8 PA), Michael Massey (6 PA), Starling Marte (5 PA), Maikel Garcia (7 PA), Isaac Collins (4 PA), Lane Thomas (4 PA), Nick Loftin (2 PA), Jac Caglianone (2 PA).

Garcia is the danger bat -- 7 PA, .500/.714/1.500 with a HR and 3 BB. He has not made an out outside of one strikeout, and at 7 PA the sample is just credible enough to game-plan around. Perez is the other live history: 4-for-7 (.571) with a HR, no walks and no strikeouts. Witt has the largest sample (8 PA) and is 1-for-7 with a K -- Liberatore has handled him so far. Massey (.333 in 6), Loftin (1-for-2), and Thomas (.333/.500) round out the small-sample green.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Lars Nootbaar L180.201.291.28931747
Masyn Winn R163.255.313.34921131
Alec Burleson L127.271.310.3983720
Iván Herrera R124.330.455.66091918
Jordan Walker R107.255.318.3472832
Nathan Church L14.417.417.500004
Jimmy Crooks L8.250.250.625102

Six LHB facing a LHP starter, so the platoon math is hostile. Nootbaar (.201 in 180 PA vs LHP, 2025) is the deepest sample and the most exposed to a lefty-on-lefty matchup. Burleson (.271 in 127 PA) is the LHB best equipped to handle Cameron -- his 2025 SLG against LHP (.398) is the only LHB number that holds up. On the RHB side, Herrera's 2025 vs LHP (.330/.455/.660 in 124 PA) is elite and makes him the highest-leverage at-bat in the lineup. Crooks (8 PA vs LHP) and Church (14 PA vs LHP) are both LHB but the samples are too small to lean on.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Isaac Collins B147.228.320.40241432
Starling Marte R147.263.327.40641130
Bobby Witt R146.328.390.48911330
Salvador Perez R144.213.257.3092629
Maikel Garcia R137.314.404.51731820
Nick Loftin R68.197.279.3282511
Jac Caglianone L67.180.254.3773415
Michael Massey L49.234.250.277019
Lane Thomas R47.150.255.3002612
Kameron Misner L42.154.214.2561216
Tyler Tolbert R35.226.286.387116
John Rave L23.278.409.278035
Carter Jensen L14.167.286.167020

Liberatore is a LHP, so the table is sorted to show how KC's lineup pool handles lefties. Witt (.328 in 146 PA), Garcia (.314 in 137 PA), and Marte (.263/.327/.406 in 147 PA) are the live 2025 threats. The opposite-handed pool struggles: Caglianone (.180 in 67 PA), Misner (.154 in 42 PA), and Jensen (.167 in 14 PA) all read as platoon disadvantages. The Royals have every reason to stack RHB tonight, which means Witt-Garcia-Perez-Marte-Thomas appears in some order at the top.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Noah Cameronvs RHB421.231.297.369.6661387
Noah Cameronvs LHB135.161.224.339.563527
Matthew Liberatorevs RHB515.265.304.426.7301693
Matthew Liberatorevs LHB133.274.348.410.758329

Cameron's 2025 vs LHB line (.161/.224/.339 in 135 PA) is a clinic -- he eats left-handed hitters. The Cardinals are starting six LHB, which is the platoon disadvantage of the day. The escape hatch is Cameron's 2025 vs RHB line (.231/.297/.369 in 421 PA): Herrera, Walker, and Winn -- tonight's only three RHB -- are the at-bats where the platoon math turns neutral. Liberatore's 2025 splits are nearly even (.265 vs RHB, .274 vs LHB) -- the platoon advantage isn't his weapon against a RHB-heavy KC pool.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Noah CameronAway28470.22.5554208
Noah CameronHome27267.22.66602310
Matthew LiberatoreAway33476.04.03592611
Matthew LiberatoreHome31475.23.6963148

Tonight's game is at Kauffman Stadium -- Liberatore pitching away, Cameron at home. Liberatore's 2025 road ERA was 4.03 over 76.0 IP versus 3.69 at home over 75.2 IP -- a modest road tax. Cameron's 2025 home/away was essentially identical (2.66 home, 2.55 road) -- the venue doesn't change his profile.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Noah CameronTTO1217.209.423.705115118
Noah CameronTTO2216.233.356.63864513
Noah CameronTTO3123.189.261.52911812
Matthew LiberatoreTTO1264.237.376.65785615
Matthew LiberatoreTTO2252.310.511.87194017
Matthew LiberatoreTTO3132.244.353.6412268

Liberatore's 2025 second pass through the order is the headline -- .310 AVG / .511 SLG / .871 OPS in 252 PA, a sharp cliff from his first pass (.237/.376/.657 in 264 PA). Innings 4-6 are where Liberatore historically gets crushed; his third pass stabilizes back to .244/.353/.641, suggesting he holds up if he survives the middle. Cameron's pattern runs the other way -- his first pass through the order carries his only real damage allowance (.423 SLG, 11 HR in 217 PA) while the second pass (.638 OPS) and third pass (.529 OPS) progressively tighten. Cameron is most beatable early; Liberatore is most beatable middle.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. JoJo Romero at 88.5% over 26 IR is the elite arm to bring in with runners on; Michael McGreevy (100% on 3 IR) is too small to lean on. Matt Svanson at 50.0% and Gordon Graceffo at 54.5% are the leak points -- both well under league average. Kyle Leahy at 62.1% over 29 IR sits just below average and is the most-used option of the group.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Noah Cameron37843.1%32.3%23.3%
Matthew Liberatore46339.1%31.3%27.6%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- KC

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Jac Caglianone.163.333.029
Isaac Collins.267.667.090
Maikel Garcia.278.577.078
Carter Jensen.227.625.000
Nick Loftin.161.588.043
Starling Marte.245.667.132
Michael Massey.309.556.098
Kameron Misner.264.633.054
Salvador Perez.127.630.131
John Rave.148.778.000
Lane Thomas.267.538.029
Tyler Tolbert.385.571.000
Bobby Witt.342.659.087

Liberatore is balanced (39.1% GB, 31.3% FB, 27.6% LD across 463 BIP) but the line-drive column is where he bleeds -- KC's hitter LD AVGs cluster heavily above .500 across the lineup pool. Witt .659 on LD, Marte .667, Collins .667, Rave .778, Perez .630 -- any line drive against Liberatore is a near-automatic hit. Witt's .342 GB AVG (190 AB) shows that even ground balls are not safe with this pool. Cameron's GB-leaning profile (43.1%) is friendlier for an LD-prone pool but his FB rate against the wrong batter still concedes power.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Pedro Pagés1575.23.93.279----
Yohel Pozo1263.24.10.259----
Jimmy Crooks211.02.45.225----

The table reflects Liberatore's 2025 catcher-pairing history. Yohel Pozo (12G, 63.2 IP) is no longer on the active roster, so his sample is reference only. Pagés (15G, 75.2 IP, 3.93 ERA) is the largest active-roster pairing. Tonight's scheduled catcher is Jimmy Crooks, whose Liberatore pairing carries just 11.0 IP across 2 games (2.45 ERA, .225 AVG against) -- a small, encouraging sample. Crooks-Liberatore is essentially a new battery, which is a signal in itself: pitch-call sequencing and pop-time calibration are unfamiliar variables tonight.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Witt -- 38 SB, 9 CS, 80.9% success. The Royals' burner; any time on first carries near-coin-flip odds he runs.

Garcia -- 23 SB, 9 CS, 71.9% success. High-volume thief; CS rate is high enough to make this a controlled threat.

Tolbert -- 21 SB, 2 CS, 91.3% success. Off the bench but the highest-efficiency runner in the pool.

Collins -- 16 SB, 7 CS, 69.6% success. Below break-even efficiency; less of a green-light threat.

Misner -- 8 SB, 1 CS, 88.9% success. Plus-rate burner on a smaller sample.

KC profiles as one of the most aggressive baserunning lineups in the league -- a meaningful concern with Crooks behind the plate on a small-sample pairing with Liberatore.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Tonight's defensive alignment matches the lineup card: Winn at SS (129G, .994), Walker in RF (108G, .981), Nootbaar in LF (107G, 1.000), Burleson at 1B (50G, .990), Crooks behind the plate (14G, 1.000), Church in CF (18G, 1.000). Wetherholt at 2B and Gorman at 3B do not carry meaningful career fielding samples in the available data. The outfield is the strength -- Nootbaar and Church each carry a 1.000 fld% in their primary spots.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Kauffman Stadium. Plays as a relatively neutral venue historically. The available 2K data does not carry a numeric park factor; Kauffman's reputation favors balanced offense -- modest HR suppression and large outfield gaps that reward gap power and speed.

Recent head-to-head: 2025 split 3-3, 2024 KC took 3-of-4, 2023 split 2-2, 2022 STL won 3-of-4. The matchup has been close, with KC slightly ahead the last two seasons.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

Walker's 2025 31.8% K% is the lineup's exposure point against Cameron, who runs a 20.5% K% himself. Crooks (37.0% K%) carries a tiny 46 PA sample but the K rate is alarming. The patient bats are Nootbaar (11.0% BB%) and Herrera (9.6% BB%); they are the most likely to extend Cameron's pitch count.

Royals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Bobby Witt68712518.2%497.1%
Maikel Garcia6668412.6%629.3%
Salvador Perez63812519.6%284.4%
Isaac Collins4419321.1%5712.9%
Starling Marte3296820.7%226.7%
Michael Massey2774315.5%93.2%
Jac Caglianone2325222.4%187.8%
Kameron Misner2176931.8%167.4%
Nick Loftin1882714.4%147.4%
John Rave1754626.3%1810.3%
Lane Thomas1424431.0%149.9%
Carter Jensen691217.4%913.0%
Tyler Tolbert571119.3%11.8%

KC's lineup has a wider 2025 K-rate spread than STL's. Misner (31.8%) and Thomas (31.0%) are the strikeout exposure -- both fit Liberatore's wheelhouse. Garcia (12.6% K%, 9.3% BB%) is the toughest at-bat for Liberatore; he doesn't expand and he doesn't whiff. Collins (12.9% BB%) and Jensen (13.0% BB%) carry the highest patience marks -- both LHB, so Liberatore can attack the zone but pays the patience tax if he misses.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

Herrera's 2025 52.6% GB rate is the highest in the lineup -- when Cameron's GB-leaning profile collides with Herrera's contact, the outcome leans heavily to grounders. Crooks' 44.4% FB rate is the only above-30% flyball mark; he is the lineup's most likely fly-ball outcome.

Royals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Maikel Garcia49246.1%26.0%27.8%
Bobby Witt47739.8%33.8%26.4%
Salvador Perez44237.6%38.0%24.4%
Isaac Collins27044.4%28.9%26.7%
Michael Massey21431.8%43.0%25.2%
Starling Marte21050.5%25.2%24.3%
Jac Caglianone15153.0%23.2%23.8%
Nick Loftin13740.9%34.3%24.8%
Kameron Misner12044.2%30.8%25.0%
John Rave9855.1%26.5%18.4%
Lane Thomas7739.0%44.2%16.9%
Carter Jensen4548.9%15.6%35.6%
Tyler Tolbert3735.1%27.0%37.8%

Caglianone (53.0% GB) and Marte (50.5% GB) match Liberatore's tendencies -- GB-on-GB collisions favor the pitcher. The FB-heavy bats (Massey 43.0%, Thomas 44.2%) are the HR risks against Liberatore, who has already conceded 14 HR over 70.2 IP in 2026. Witt's 39.8% GB / 33.8% FB profile is balanced and dangerous in any context.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Matthew Liberatore151.212218.8%406.2%3.05
Noah Cameron138.111420.5%437.7%2.65

Liberatore's 2025 K/BB ratio (3.05 over 151.2 IP) and Cameron's 2.65 over 138.1 IP both sit above league-average territory. Cameron's 2025 K% (20.5%) is slightly higher than Liberatore's (18.8%); both run BB% under 8%. Neither pitcher is a strikeout monster, but both keep traffic off the bases on walks -- pace and command are the styles tonight, not stuff.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Maikel Garcia vs Liberatore. Garcia is 2-for-4 with a HR and 3 BB in 7 career PA against Liberatore (.500/.714/1.500), and is .314 vs LHP in 2025 over 137 PA. He is the at-bat to game-plan around; he does not strike out (12.6% K%) and he does not chase.

Bobby Witt vs Liberatore. Witt has been muted in the small career sample (1-for-7, 1 K in 8 PA) but his 2025 vs LHP line (.328/.390/.489 in 146 PA) is elite. With 38 SB on the year at 80.9% success, any reach from Witt converts to second base in a hurry.

Burleson vs Cameron. Burleson's 2025 vs LHP profile (.271/.310/.398 in 127 PA) is the only LHB number in the Cardinals lineup that holds up. He's also the highest-2026-RISP bat (.337 AVG, .893 OPS over 93 PA) -- the right LHB in any leverage spot Cameron concedes.

X-factor: Crooks-Liberatore battery. Crooks carries just 11.0 IP across 2 games with Liberatore in the 2025 catcher sample -- a fresh pairing. Combined with Witt's 38-SB year and Tolbert's 91.3% success rate off the bench, the running game is the variable to watch in the first pass through the order.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Noah Cameron in their career?

2. How has Matthew Liberatore fared against Bobby Witt in their career?

3. How has Maikel Garcia performed against Matthew Liberatore in their career?

4. What are Matthew Liberatore's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Bobby Witt's splits vs LHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Kauffman Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025