NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 44-26 | - | W2 |
| Cardinals | 40-31 | 4.5 | W2 |
| Cubs | 38-36 | 8.0 | L1 |
| Pirates | 37-37 | 9.0 | W1 |
| Reds | 35-37 | 10.0 | W2 |
NL WEST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 47-27 | - | W2 |
| Padres | 37-35 | 9.0 | L2 |
| D-backs | 37-36 | 9.5 | L1 |
| Giants | 29-43 | 17.0 | W1 |
| Rockies | 28-46 | 19.0 | W1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16 | SD | Home | W 3-2 |
| Jun 15 | SD | Home | W 3-0 |
| Jun 14 | MIN | Away | L 4-5 |
| Jun 13 | MIN | Away | W 9-6 |
| Jun 12 | MIN | Away | L 8-9 |
| Jun 11 | NYM | Away | L 4-5 |
| Jun 10 | NYM | Away | W 9-2 |
| Jun 9 | NYM | Away | W 7-0 |
| Jun 7 | CIN | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 6 | CIN | Home | W 6-5 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Kyle Leahy (R) -- Cardinals. 2026 to date: 5-3, 4.64 ERA, 64.0 IP, 52 K, 25 BB, 1.59 WHIP across 13 starts; 53.0% GB, 17.9% K, 8.6% BB. 2025 baseline: 22.0% K, 7.7% BB, 2.86 K/BB across 88.0 IP -- a stronger strikeout signature than the 2026-to-date mark. The home/away split is the headline number: 2.68 ERA on the road vs 4.47 ERA at home in the 2025 sample. Today is at Busch.
Padres starter -- TBD. San Diego has not announced a starter at the time of this report. Profile-side reads will firm up once the name is posted; the rest of this scout proceeds on the data we do have for the Padres lineup and the Cardinals side of the matchup.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-16)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .327 | .873 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .190 | .640 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .329 | .880 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .321 | 1.032 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .083 | .583 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .167 | .484 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .333 | 1.178 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | -- | -- |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .258 | .597 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Padres (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Hunt | C | R |
| Tatis | RF | R |
| Sheets | 1B | L |
| Merrill | CF | L |
| Bowen | RF | R |
| Machado | 3B | R |
| Solak | 1B | R |
| Durán | C | R |
| Taylor | LF | R |
| Song | 2B | L |
| France | 1B | R |
| Wagner | DH | L |
| Bogaerts | SS | R |
Handedness: 9 RHB (Hunt, Tatis, Bowen, Machado, Solak, Durán, Taylor, France, Bogaerts), 4 LHB (Sheets, Merrill, Song, Wagner).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move data is available for today.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
No data available for this section.
San Diego has not announced today's starter -- the BvP query has no opposing pitcher to key off, so this section is empty by design rather than by a missing sample. Once a name is posted, treat the read as a profile bet (platoon line, K%/BB%, batted-ball mix) until a sample exists. No bench BvP rows to flag either.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fernando Tatis | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty France | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson Merrill | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Manny Machado (3 PA), Fernando Tatis (2 PA), Ty France (2 PA), Xander Bogaerts (1 PA), Jackson Merrill (1 PA).
Every row here is single digits -- none of these readings would survive a single follow-up at-bat. Machado's 1-for-3 is the only hit on the board, and it does not establish a tendency. With no Padres bat over the 10-PA threshold against Leahy, the meaningful read for this game is profile, not history: Leahy's vs-RHB line against a Padres pool that runs 9 RHB deep.
Bench note: Hunt, Bowen, Solak, Durán, Taylor, Song, Wagner all show no career BvP rows vs Leahy in the available sample. Sheets has zero PA on file as well. There is no bench history to lean on.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Lars Nootbaar L | 403 | .249 | .340 | .394 | 10 | 47 | 72 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Iván Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 38 | .108 | .132 | .162 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
The Padres starter is TBD, so this table reads as a forward-looking 2025 vs-RHP reference until the matchup arm is known. Burleson's .296/.353/.478 is the cleanest left-handed look in the lineup. Walker (.200) is the danger spot among the regulars, and the small-sample bottom of the order (Church .114, Crooks .108) keeps the table's red tilted there. If today's Padres starter is left-handed, the Cardinals will be reading off a different lens -- this 2025 vs-RHP line is the floor of what is available to plan from.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis R | 516 | .277 | .366 | .466 | 20 | 58 | 100 |
| Manny Machado R | 500 | .279 | .332 | .440 | 15 | 36 | 99 |
| Gavin Sheets L | 393 | .250 | .323 | .452 | 17 | 34 | 80 |
| Xander Bogaerts R | 389 | .246 | .317 | .368 | 8 | 34 | 70 |
| Ty France R | 351 | .263 | .330 | .349 | 4 | 16 | 60 |
| Jackson Merrill L | 321 | .279 | .336 | .514 | 15 | 24 | 76 |
| Will Wagner L | 129 | .234 | .341 | .288 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| Nick Solak R | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samad Taylor R | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Leahy is a right-hander, so the table that matters for this game is the 2025 vs-RHP line above. The Padres pool is heavily right-handed -- and Leahy's 2025 vs-RHB profile (.238/.270/.319, .589 OPS) is the cleaner half of his platoon. Tatis (.277), Machado (.279), and Merrill (.279, .514 SLG) are the highest-damage 2025 vs-RHP lines. Sheets (.452 SLG from the left side) is the only LHB in the pool with both volume and pop. Solak and Taylor are noise rows on 3 PA apiece.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | vs LHB | 163 | .252 | .337 | .364 | .701 | 3 | 37 |
| Kyle Leahy | vs RHB | 200 | .238 | .270 | .319 | .589 | 2 | 43 |
Reverse-platoon read for a right-hander: Leahy is meaningfully tougher on right-handed bats than left-handed bats in the 2025 sample. The .589 OPS allowed vs RHB is the floor of his work, and the Padres' active-roster pool runs 9 RHB to 4 LHB -- straight into his stronger split. Conversely, the left-handed bats on the SD roster (Sheets, Merrill, Song, Wagner) get the side where Leahy gives up a .337 OBP and a .701 OPS. If the Padres' eventual lineup leans heavily on its left-handed quartet, the platoon math swings toward them.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | Away | 173 | 43.2 | 2.68 | 46 | 13 | 2 |
| Kyle Leahy | Home | 190 | 44.1 | 4.47 | 34 | 15 | 3 |
Today's game is at Busch -- Leahy pitching at home, the weaker half of his 2025 split (4.47 ERA at home vs 2.68 on the road). The strikeout volume also drops at home (34 K in 44.1 IP) compared to the road (46 K in 43.2 IP). The home/road gap is a real read on his 2025 profile, and the venue context this afternoon is the side that has historically been harder for him.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | TTO1 | 355 | .247 | .341 | .645 | 5 | 76 | 28 |
| Kyle Leahy | TTO2 | 8 | .125 | .250 | .375 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
The first pass through the order is essentially Leahy's whole 2025 sample (355 PA) -- .247/--/.341, .645 OPS. The second pass row carries just 8 PA, which is not a usable read; it reflects how rarely he stayed in the game long enough to see hitters twice in 2025. Today he is the starter rather than a bulk reliever, so a second pass through the order is much more likely than his 2025 split alone suggests. Plan around the first-pass profile and treat any innings 4-6 work as essentially new territory for this profile.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Chris Roycroft | 12 | 7 | 41.7% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League-average strand rate sits in the ~68-72% band. Romero (88.5%, 26 IR) is the firmer fireman -- the arm to bring in with traffic. O'Brien (70.0%, 10 IR) clears league average on a smaller sample. Svanson (50.0%), Graceffo (54.5%), and Roycroft (41.7%) all sit meaningfully below the band on real samples -- bringing one of those three in with two on and two out is the high-variance fork. Leahy's reliever line (62.1% on 29 IR) is the relevant 2025 read on him as a backup multi-inning arm, but today he is the starter.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 249 | 44.2% | 26.9% | 27.7% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- SD
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | .302 | .509 | .113 |
| Ty France | .192 | .660 | .143 |
| Manny Machado | .238 | .694 | .081 |
| Jackson Merrill | .323 | .552 | .098 |
| Gavin Sheets | .240 | .523 | .114 |
| Nick Solak | .167 | .000 | .000 |
| Fernando Tatis | .294 | .681 | .032 |
| Samad Taylor | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Will Wagner | .180 | .556 | .174 |
Leahy is balanced in his 2025 batted-ball profile -- 44.2% GB / 26.9% FB / 27.7% LD -- with almost identical fly and line rates, meaning a meaningful share of contact still goes in the air. The Padres pool's line-drive AVGs are uniformly punishing: Machado .694, Tatis .681, France .660, Wagner .556, Merrill .552, Sheets .523. The path to a safe inning is the ground ball -- where the Padres' AVGs are lower (Tatis .294, Bogaerts .302, Merrill .323 are the highest GB AVGs in the group, and France .192 and Sheets .240 are the lowest). Fly balls are the cleanest out type on profile: every Padres bat in the table is under .175 in the air, with Tatis at .032 and Machado at .081 the most extreme.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 43 | 62.0 | 3.05 | .225 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 13 | 16.0 | 2.25 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 4 | 6.1 | 8.53 | .346 | -- | -- |
| Iván Herrera | 4 | 3.0 | 6.00 | .308 | -- | -- |
All four catchers above are on the Cardinals side; Pozo is no longer on the active roster, so his line is historical context rather than a today option. Today's projected starting catcher is Jimmy Crooks -- his Leahy pairing carries an 8.53 ERA over 4 games and 6.1 IP, the roughest number on the board on a small sample. Herrera is DH-ing and Pagés is the alternate behind the plate; Pagés has the largest, cleanest pairing sample with Leahy (43 G, 62.0 IP, 3.05 ERA). The Crooks/Leahy 6.1-IP line is too thin to call a tendency, but it is also the only data on today's actual battery -- expect the standard fresh-pairing watch points (sequencing through the order, pitch-framing on borderline calls).
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Fernando Tatis: 32 SB, 7 CS (82.1% success).
Xander Bogaerts: 20 SB, 2 CS (90.9% success).
Manny Machado: 14 SB, 3 CS (82.4% success).
Gavin Sheets: 2 SB, 1 CS (66.7% success).
Jackson Merrill: 1 SB, 2 CS (33.3% success).
Ty France: 1 SB, 0 CS (100% success).
Will Wagner: 1 SB, 0 CS (100% success).
Three Padres runners clear the 80% success line on real volume -- Tatis, Bogaerts, Machado. Behind a battery in its fifth career game together (Crooks/Leahy, 6.1 IP), reaching base with one of those three is a leverage event. Watch for the running game in the early innings before the pop-time calibration settles in.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Today's alignment supports a contact-allowing right-hander. Winn at SS (.994 Fld%, 64 DP on 129 games) is the most reliable infield turner in the sample and the anchor of the middle infield for Leahy's ground-ball share. Burleson is starting at 1B (.990 Fld%, 27 DP on 50 games at the bag). Walker in RF carries 4 errors on 108 games -- the noisiest corner on the card. Church in CF has a clean 18-game CF line, and the LF spot (Nootbaar) has a perfect 107-game fielding line. Wetherholt at 2B, Gorman at 3B, and Crooks behind the plate do not all carry primary 2025 fielding samples in this table -- Crooks's 14-game catcher line is the only direct read on the rest of the alignment.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Busch Stadium has historically played as a pitcher-leaning venue; the available 2K data does not carry a numeric park factor. Recent head-to-head: 2025 (3-4), 2024 (4-3), 2023 (3-3), 2022 (4-2). The Cardinals lead the current three-game set 2-0 and have a chance to complete a home sweep this afternoon.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Walker's 2025 K% (31.8%) and Crooks's 2025 K% (37.0%, small 46-PA sample) are the high-strikeout spots in the lineup -- both well above the 25% threshold. Burleson's 2025 14.5% K is the controlled-contact anchor. Nootbaar's 2025 11.0% BB is the only above-league walk rate; Crooks (0.0%) and Church (4.6%) are the low-walk outliers. Against a starter with command questions today (TBD), Nootbaar's plate discipline becomes a bigger asset; against a power arm, the Walker and Crooks slots are the chase risks.
Padres
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis | 691 | 129 | 18.7% | 89 | 12.9% |
| Manny Machado | 678 | 131 | 19.3% | 55 | 8.1% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 552 | 94 | 17.0% | 48 | 8.7% |
| Gavin Sheets | 545 | 107 | 19.6% | 44 | 8.1% |
| Ty France | 490 | 83 | 16.9% | 22 | 4.5% |
| Jackson Merrill | 483 | 108 | 22.4% | 33 | 6.8% |
| Will Wagner | 149 | 28 | 18.8% | 17 | 11.4% |
| Nick Solak | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 0 | 0.0% |
| Samad Taylor | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 0 | 0.0% |
No Padres regular cracks the 25% K% threshold -- Merrill's 22.4% is the highest on real volume. Tatis (12.9% BB) and Wagner (11.4% BB) are the patience anchors; France (4.5%) is the only low-walk outlier in the regular pool. Leahy is not a swing-and-miss arm at scale (22.0% K, 7.7% BB in 2025; 17.9% K, 8.6% BB in 2026 to date), and this Padres pool's combined K profile is around league average -- the path to outs runs through contact management, not whiffs.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
The middle of the Cardinals lineup (Burleson, Winn, Nootbaar) runs balanced 2025 distributions. Herrera's 2025 GB% (52.6%) and Walker's 48.9% both lean ground. Church's 2025 67.6% GB on a small 37-BIP sample is the lineup's most extreme ground-ball lean. Crooks's 2025 44.4% FB% is the table's highest air-ball rate, also on a thin sample (27 BIP).
Padres
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | 463 | 41.7% | 32.2% | 26.1% |
| Fernando Tatis | 447 | 51.7% | 28.0% | 20.4% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 395 | 45.3% | 26.8% | 27.8% |
| Gavin Sheets | 371 | 39.4% | 30.7% | 29.9% |
| Ty France | 357 | 48.2% | 25.5% | 26.3% |
| Jackson Merrill | 319 | 40.8% | 32.0% | 27.3% |
| Will Wagner | 100 | 50.0% | 23.0% | 27.0% |
| Nick Solak | 9 | 66.7% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Samad Taylor | 6 | 50.0% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
The Padres carry several ground-ball-leaning bats in 2025 (Tatis 51.7% GB, France 48.2%, Bogaerts 45.3%, Wagner 50.0%, Solak 66.7%) -- contact this group makes will be funneled toward the Cardinals' middle infield, where Winn's defensive sample is the cleanest read. The line-drive leaders (Sheets 29.9%, Bogaerts 27.8%, Merrill 27.3%, Wagner 27.0%, France 26.3%) are the damage bats when the contact gets squared up. Leahy's 2025 batted-ball mix is roughly balanced (44.2% GB, 27.7% LD) -- this profile vs that profile leans toward the ground ball on volume, but enough line drives leak through that the air-ball danger bats (Sheets, Merrill especially) are the at-bats to watch when the count gets ahead.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 88.0 | 80 | 22.0% | 28 | 7.7% | 2.86 |
2026 to date: 52 K, 25 BB in 64.0 IP (17.9% K, 8.6% BB). 2025 baseline: 22.0% K, 7.7% BB, 2.86 K/BB across 88.0 IP. The 2026 mark walks more and strikes out fewer hitters than the 2025 line did -- the punch-out share has slipped and the free passes have ticked up. WHIP (1.59) tells the same story. Path to outs today is contact management; the job is keeping it on the ground and away from the line-drive zone.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Leahy vs the Padres' right-handed wall. Leahy's 2025 vs-RHB line (.238/.270/.319, .589 OPS, Section 2D) is the cleaner half of his platoon, and the Padres' active-roster pool runs 9 RHB deep. Tatis (.277 vs RHP), Machado (.279), and Bogaerts (.246) are the top of the order this profile has to navigate; Tatis is the patience risk (12.9% BB, Section 2L), and Machado is the damage bat (.694 career LD AVG, Section 2G). The platoon math favors Leahy as long as he stays on top of the right-handed half of the lineup.
Burleson vs the Padres' TBD starter. Burleson's 2025 vs-RHP profile (.296/.353/.478, 15 HR, Section 2C) is the cleanest left-handed look in the Cardinals lineup, but the matchup arm has not been announced. If today's Padres starter is right-handed, Burleson is the highest-leverage at-bat. If left-handed, the read flips toward Walker and Herrera at the top of the right-handed side.
Tatis as a leverage threat. 32 SB, 7 CS (82.1% success, Section 2I) -- behind a Crooks/Leahy battery that has just 6.1 career IP together (Section 2H), any time Tatis reaches first is a 90-foot-plus risk. The pop-time calibration on a fresh pairing is the variable; the speed is the constant.
X-factor -- the home/road split. Leahy's 2025 home ERA is 4.47, road 2.68 (Section 2D-HA). He has thrown more innings at home (44.1 vs 43.2) but with fewer strikeouts (34 vs 46). Today is at Busch -- the harder context historically. If the early innings get hit, the underlying 2025 reason is on the table.
Watchlist.
-- Leahy's TTO2 territory. The 2025 sample shows just 8 PA the second time through the order (Section 2E) -- not a usable read on its own. Today as a starter, innings 4-6 are essentially new profile work. Treat any second-pass success as a real signal and any second-pass struggles as the underwritten risk.
-- Bullpen strand-rate fork. Romero (88.5% on 26 IR, Section 2F) is the cleanest fireman. Svanson (50.0%), Roycroft (41.7%), and Graceffo (54.5%) all sit meaningfully below the league band. Which arm enters with runners on can decide the middle innings.
-- The sweep opportunity. STL leads 2-0 in a three-game set, against a Padres team on an L2 skid. A win here is the home sweep and a step closer to closing the NL Central gap (currently 4.5 GB).
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Manny Machado performed against Kyle Leahy in their career?
2. How has Alec Burleson fared against Wandy Peralta in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Jackson Merrill in their career?
4. What are Kyle Leahy's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Fernando Tatis Jr.'s splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025