NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers43-26-W1
Cardinals39-314.5W1
Cubs38-357.0W1
Pirates36-379.0L2
Reds34-3710.0W1

NL WEST STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Dodgers46-27-W1
Padres37-348.0L1
D-backs37-358.5W2
Giants29-4316.5W1
Rockies27-4619.0L1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jun 15SDHomeW 3-0
Jun 14MINAwayL 4-5
Jun 13MINAwayW 9-6
Jun 12MINAwayL 8-9
Jun 11NYMAwayL 4-5
Jun 10NYMAwayW 9-2
Jun 9NYMAwayW 7-0
Jun 7CINHomeW 5-3
Jun 6CINHomeW 6-5
Jun 5CINHomeW 10-3

STARTING PITCHERS

Andre Pallante (R) -- Cardinals

2026 to date: 7-4, 3.88 ERA, 69.2 IP, 56 K, 25 BB, 1.26 WHIP across 13 starts. The 2026 line carries a 57.7% ground-ball rate and an 18.8% K rate -- the contact-management profile that has defined his recent work.

2025 baseline: 15.5% K, 8.7% BB, 1.79 K/BB across 162.2 IP and 715 batters faced. The 2025 batted-ball sample shows 61.2% GB -- a true ground-ball arm by every cut.

Michael King (R) -- Padres

2026 to date: 4-5, 3.46 ERA, 80.2 IP, 72 K, 32 BB, 1.15 WHIP across 14 starts. The 22.1% K rate and 9.8% BB rate are both more aggressive than Pallante's contact-first profile.

King has also held opponents to a .200 batting line yet allowed 10 HR -- a fly-ball lean within an otherwise stingy season-to-date package (53.5% GB by his own line).

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-15)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.327.873
2HerreraDHR.193.640
3Burleson1BL.338.902
4WalkerRFR.3291.057
5NootbaarLFL.083.600
6WinnSSR.167.484
7CrooksCL.3751.319
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.233.552

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Padres (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

PlayerPosBats
HuntCR
TatisRFR
Sheets1BL
MerrillCFL
BowenRFR
Machado3BR
Solak1BR
DuránCR
TaylorLFR
Song2BL
France1BR
Wagner3BL
BogaertsSSR

Handedness: 9 RHB (Hunt, Tatis, Bowen, Machado, Solak, Durán, Taylor, France, Bogaerts), 4 LHB (Sheets, Merrill, Song, Wagner).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move data is available for today. The Cardinals lineup is projected from 2026-06-15; the Padres are listed from the active-roster pool with batting order not yet set.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

No career BvP rows for the Cardinals lineup against King in the available sample. Tonight is a profile bet on King's right-handed delivery against a 6-LHB Cardinals card -- platoon and 2025 K%/BB% read carry the load instead.

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against King.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Manny Machado11113.273.273.364003
Xander Bogaerts1092.222.300.222013
Ty France551.200.200.200000
Jackson Merrill640.000.333.000021
Fernando Tatis620.000.667.000042

Small sample: Ty France (5 PA), Jackson Merrill (6 PA), Fernando Tatis (6 PA).

Machado (11 PA, .273) is the only Padres bat with a career BvP sample over the 10-PA threshold -- he hits Pallante at roughly his overall RHP line, with no walks but no extra-base damage either. Bogaerts (10 PA, .222) sits just under. Tatis is the outlier: 0-for-2 with 4 BB in 6 PA -- the patience approach has worked, not the contact one. Merrill (.333 OBP on 6 PA) also leans walks-over-hits in the small sample.

Bench note: Hunt, Bowen, Solak, Duran, Taylor, Song, and Wagner have no career BvP rows against Pallante in the available sample. The matchup is profile-driven for two-thirds of the roster pool.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259
Lars Nootbaar L403.249.340.394104772
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371
Iván Herrera R328.268.343.399102466
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314
Jimmy Crooks L38.108.132.1620015

Against King's right-handed delivery, the 6-LHB Cardinals card leans on Burleson (.296 / .353 / .478 vs RHP in 2025) as the cleanest left-handed look. Nootbaar's 2025 vs RHP line (.249 / .340 / .394) is on-base healthy but contact-modest. Walker is the danger spot on profile -- .200 AVG vs RHP in 2025 with a 94-K sample. Crooks and Church both carry sub-.115 marks in small 2025 vs RHP samples; the bottom third of the order is the soft underbelly tonight.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Fernando Tatis R516.277.366.4662058100
Manny Machado R500.279.332.440153699
Gavin Sheets L393.250.323.452173480
Xander Bogaerts R389.246.317.36883470
Ty France R351.263.330.34941660
Jackson Merrill L321.279.336.514152476
Will Wagner L129.234.341.28801624
Nick Solak R3.000.000.000000
Samad Taylor R3.000.000.000000

Against Pallante (R), the Padres' 9-RHB-heavy active-roster pool runs into a pitcher whose 2025 vs RHB line (.275 / .345 / .429) is broadly indistinguishable from his vs LHB line (.266 / .329 / .434). Tatis (.277 vs RHP, 20 HR), Machado (.279, 15 HR), and Merrill (.279, 15 HR, .514 SLG) are the bats with both volume and damage in the 2025 sample. Sheets adds .452 SLG from the left side. The top of any plausible lineup card hits this profile.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Andre Pallantevs LHB347.266.329.434.7631060
Andre Pallantevs RHB368.275.345.429.7741151

Pallante's 2025 platoon split is essentially neutral -- .763 OPS vs LHB, .774 OPS vs RHB. The 9-RHB Padres roster pool does not exploit a meaningful handedness advantage on profile alone; the matchup will turn on TTO, batted-ball outcomes, and individual BvP edges rather than platoon arithmetic.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Andre PallanteAway37584.24.89673511
Andre PallanteHome34078.05.42442710

Tonight's game is at Busch -- Pallante's 2025 home ERA was 5.42, higher than his 4.89 away mark. The K total also dropped at home (44 in 78.0 IP vs 67 in 84.2 IP away). Busch is not a tailwind venue for him on this sample; the road has been his stronger context.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Andre PallanteTTO1279.266.393.72063521
Andre PallanteTTO2270.309.487.86884627
Andre PallanteTTO3166.217.408.69173014

Pallante's clearest weak spot is the second pass through the order. His 2025 line balloons from .266 / .393 (first pass) to .309 / .487 (second pass) before settling back to .217 / .408 on the third pass. The second-pass window -- typically innings 4-6 -- is where the lineup gets a second look and the damage rises. The third-pass dip suggests he survives turnover when he stays in, but the middle innings are where leverage piles up.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Chris Roycroft12741.7%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

Romero (88.5%) sits well above the league-average strand benchmark (~68-72%) and is the steady fireman in the group. Svanson (50.0%), Roycroft (41.7%), and Graceffo (54.5%) are all below benchmark on samples of 11-15 entries -- meaningful enough to matter. Which arm enters with traffic in the 6th or 7th is a real input on win expectancy.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Andre Pallante51561.2%18.3%19.6%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- SD

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Xander Bogaerts.302.509.113
Ty France.192.660.143
Manny Machado.238.694.081
Jackson Merrill.323.552.098
Gavin Sheets.240.523.114
Nick Solak.167.000.000
Fernando Tatis.294.681.032
Samad Taylor.000.000.000
Will Wagner.180.556.174

Pallante's 2025 GB% (61.2%) is the dominant feature of his profile. Against Padres bats, that channels contact into the at-bat type where most of the lineup is weakest -- Bogaerts (.302 on GB), Tatis (.294), Machado (.238), France (.192) all sit well below their line-drive marks. Machado's .694 LD average is the danger zone: any ball squared up is a damage event. The Cardinals need this game to be ground-ball heavy; if the Padres elevate, the LD numbers above explain why the inning gets away.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Pedro Pagés1576.14.60.257----
Yohel Pozo837.26.93.303----
Jimmy Crooks523.14.24.258----
Iván Herrera523.24.56.271----

Tonight's starting catcher is Jimmy Crooks (per the projected lineup). The pairing carries 5 games and 23.1 IP with Pallante at a 4.24 ERA -- the cleanest number on this board, though on a small sample. Pagés (15 G, 76.1 IP, 4.60 ERA) is the larger reference. Pozo is no longer on the active roster -- his 8-game line is historical context, not a tonight option. Herrera is in tonight's lineup at DH, which removes the secondary catching option from in-game flexibility.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

The Padres bring real running game from the top of the order. Crooks behind the plate tonight will face:

-- Fernando Tatis: 32 SB, 7 CS in the available sample (82.1% success).

-- Xander Bogaerts: 20 SB, 2 CS (90.9% success) -- the highest-rate threat.

-- Manny Machado: 14 SB, 3 CS (82.4% success).

Three above-average runners reaching base is a leverage event with a developing-sample battery. Pallante's 2025 BB% (8.7) gives them potential entry points if he loses the zone.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Tonight's defensive alignment matches a ground-ball pitcher with a strong middle-infield anchor. Winn at SS (.994 Fld%, 64 DP on 129 games) is the sample's most reliable infield turner. Burleson is starting at 1B tonight (.990 Fld%, 27 DP). Walker in RF carries 4 errors on 108 games -- a position where Pallante's batted-ball profile rarely sends action, but worth noting. Church in CF tonight has the strongest fielding mark of his outfield positions on his 18-game CF sample.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium has historically played as a pitcher-leaning venue; the available 2K data does not carry a numeric park factor. The series record between these teams since 2022 is close to even: 2025 (3-4), 2024 (4-3), 2023 (3-3), 2022 (4-2). The Cardinals have not been blown out by the Padres in any recent season, and they enter tonight up 1-0 in the current three-game set.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

Burleson's 2025 K rate (14.5%) is the controlled contact profile against King's 22.1% K rate. Walker (2025 K% 31.8%) and Crooks (37.0% on a 46-PA sample) are the strikeout-prone spots; King's K rate plays directly to those weaknesses. Nootbaar's 11.0% BB rate is the only above-league walk profile in the lineup.

Padres

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Fernando Tatis69112918.7%8912.9%
Manny Machado67813119.3%558.1%
Xander Bogaerts5529417.0%488.7%
Gavin Sheets54510719.6%448.1%
Ty France4908316.9%224.5%
Jackson Merrill48310822.4%336.8%
Will Wagner1492818.8%1711.4%
Nick Solak11218.2%00.0%
Samad Taylor9111.1%00.0%

Tatis is the patience anchor -- 2025 BB% 12.9, well above league average. Wagner (11.4% BB%) adds another walk-friendly bat from the left side. Merrill's 2025 K% (22.4) is the strikeout-prone spot near the top; Pallante's 2025 K% (15.5) is below league average, so the path to outs is contact, not whiffs. France's 4.5% BB% is the only low-walk outlier in the regular pool.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

Against King's 53.5% GB rate this season, the Cardinals' middle (Burleson, Winn, Nootbaar) all carry balanced 2025 distributions -- the at-bats project as live. Herrera's 2025 GB% (52.6) and Walker's (48.9) are higher; the Padres' infield will get touches. Crooks' 2025 FB% (44.4) on a 27-BIP sample is the lone fly-ball-leaning bat, on a sample too small to lean on.

Padres

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Manny Machado46341.7%32.2%26.1%
Fernando Tatis44751.7%28.0%20.4%
Xander Bogaerts39545.3%26.8%27.8%
Gavin Sheets37139.4%30.7%29.9%
Ty France35748.2%25.5%26.3%
Jackson Merrill31940.8%32.0%27.3%
Will Wagner10050.0%23.0%27.0%
Nick Solak966.7%22.2%11.1%
Samad Taylor650.0%16.7%33.3%

Pallante's 2025 GB% (61.2) meets a Padres profile pool where Tatis (51.7%), France (48.2%), Wagner (50.0%), and Solak (66.7%) all skew ground-ball; the matchup channels contact into Winn's territory at short. The danger bats are the line-drive merchants -- Sheets (29.9% LD), Bogaerts (27.8%), Merrill (27.3%), Wagner (27.0%) -- because squared-up contact bypasses Pallante's GB advantage entirely.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Andre Pallante162.211115.5%628.7%1.79

2026 to date: 56 K, 25 BB in 69.2 IP (18.8% K, 8.4% BB by statsapi). 2025 baseline: 15.5% K, 8.7% BB, 1.79 K/BB ratio. Pallante is not a swing-and-miss arm -- he is a contact manager whose value lives in the 2025 GB profile and the 0.612 ground-ball rate, not in the K column. Both the 2025 K% and BB% sit below league average; the path to outs is in play, by design.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Machado vs Pallante. The only Padres bat with a career BvP sample over the 10-PA threshold against tonight's starter. 11 PA, 3 H, 0 BB, .273 AVG, .364 SLG. Profile reinforces it -- Machado is .279 vs RHP in 2025 with a .694 LD AVG. The Padres' best path to early scoring runs through this at-bat.

Burleson vs King. No career BvP rows for the Cardinals against King in the available sample. Burleson's 2025 vs RHP line (.296 / .353 / .478, 15 HR) is the cleanest left-handed profile bet in the lineup; he is the matchup advantage if the Cardinals get to King early.

Tatis on base. 4 BB in 6 career PA against Pallante for a .667 OBP -- the patience matchup, not the contact one. Pallante's 2025 BB% (8.7) is below league average, but if Tatis gets the count, the steal threat (32 SB, 82.1% success) follows.

X-factor: TTO2 window. Pallante's 2025 line jumps from .266 / .393 in the first pass to .309 / .487 in the second pass. Innings 4-6 are when the Padres' top of the order rolls back through against a pitcher whose collision zone is exactly that window. If the Cardinals are not ahead by then, this is when the game tilts.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Manny Machado performed against Andre Pallante in their career?

2. How has Alec Burleson fared against Michael King in their career?

3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Gavin Sheets in their career?

4. What are Andre Pallante's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Alec Burleson's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025