NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 43-26 | - | W1 |
| Cardinals | 38-31 | 5.0 | L1 |
| Cubs | 37-35 | 7.5 | L1 |
| Pirates | 36-36 | 8.5 | L1 |
| Reds | 33-37 | 10.5 | L1 |
NL WEST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 45-27 | - | L1 |
| Padres | 37-33 | 7.0 | W2 |
| D-backs | 36-35 | 8.5 | W1 |
| Giants | 29-43 | 16.0 | W1 |
| Rockies | 27-45 | 18.0 | W1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | MIN | Away | L 4-5 |
| Jun 13 | MIN | Away | W 9-6 |
| Jun 12 | MIN | Away | L 8-9 |
| Jun 11 | NYM | Away | L 4-5 |
| Jun 10 | NYM | Away | W 9-2 |
| Jun 9 | NYM | Away | W 7-0 |
| Jun 7 | CIN | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 6 | CIN | Home | W 6-5 |
| Jun 5 | CIN | Home | W 10-3 |
| Jun 3 | TEX | Home | W 5-3 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Cardinals: Dustin May (R)
2026 to date: 4-6, 4.21 ERA, 72.2 IP, 66 K, 20 BB, 1.25 WHIP. 13 starts. 21.9% K%, 6.6% BB%, 48.6% GB% on the season.
2025 baseline: 132.1 IP, 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, 2.20 K/BB. Home/road split is the load-bearing context tonight -- 3.24 ERA in 75.0 IP at home, 6.28 ERA in 57.1 IP on the road across his career sample. Tonight is home.
Padres: TBD
Starter unconfirmed at lock time. Padres SP options on the active roster: Walker Buehler (R), Michael King (R), Lucas Giolito (R), Griffin Canning (R), Randy Vasquez (R), Bradgley Rodriguez (R). The Cardinals lineup posted six left-handed bats (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church) versus three righties (Herrera, Walker, Winn) -- consistent with a right-handed opponent starter.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-14)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .327 | .873 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .193 | .640 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .329 | .876 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .333 | 1.069 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .091 | .650 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .172 | .498 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .400 | 1.500 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | -- | -- |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .233 | .552 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Padres (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Hunt | C | R |
| Tatis | RF | R |
| Sheets | 1B | L |
| Merrill | CF | L |
| Bowen | CF | R |
| Machado | 3B | R |
| Solak | 1B | R |
| Durán | C | R |
| Taylor | LF | R |
| Song | 2B | L |
| France | 1B | R |
| Wagner | 3B | L |
| Bogaerts | SS | R |
Handedness: 9 RHB (Hunt, Tatis, Bowen, Machado, Solak, Durán, Taylor, France, Bogaerts), 4 LHB (Sheets, Merrill, Song, Wagner).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move data is available for today's report. Cardinals lineup is a projection from yesterday's batting order. Padres lineup is built from the active roster pool; final 9 will be confirmed at game time.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
No data available for this section.
Opponent starter is TBD, so no career BvP rows are available for the Cardinals lineup. This becomes a profile bet on whichever Padres righty takes the mound, not a history bet. Read the platoon and K%/BB% tables below for the operative angles.
Bench note: No bench BvP history can be assigned until the opposing starter is set.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | 35 | 33 | 9 | .273 | .314 | .515 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Fernando Tatis | 26 | 23 | 6 | .261 | .346 | .435 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 9 | 8 | 2 | .250 | .333 | .375 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ty France | 5 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .400 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Solak | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gavin Sheets | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson Merrill | 3 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Small sample: Xander Bogaerts (9 PA), Ty France (5 PA), Nick Solak (3 PA), Gavin Sheets (3 PA), Jackson Merrill (3 PA).
Machado (35 PA, .273 AVG, .515 SLG, 2 HR) is the only true sample here and it carries an active power signal. Tatis (26 PA, .261 AVG, 1 HR) is the second-largest sample and pairs a respectable line with .346 OBP -- if May avoids walks, that BvP edge softens. The rest are 3-9 PA -- statistically meaningless, even when the AVG row jumps green.
Bench note: Bowen, Hunt, Song, Wagner, Taylor, Duran have no BvP history with May in the career sample. Anyone who pinch-hits is facing him fresh.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Lars Nootbaar L | 403 | .249 | .340 | .394 | 10 | 47 | 72 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 38 | .108 | .132 | .162 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Against right-handed pitching in 2025, Burleson (.296), Herrera (.268), and Nootbaar (.249 with .340 OBP) are the established producers in this lineup. Walker is the cleanup bat and the platoon problem -- .200 / .263 / .291 vs RHP in 2025 with a 94 K / 21 BB ratio that does not project well against a profile righty. Church and Crooks are micro-samples (51 and 38 PA) but both are sitting under .120 -- the bottom of the order is a quiet zone unless Wetherholt rolls the lineup.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis R | 516 | .277 | .366 | .466 | 20 | 58 | 100 |
| Manny Machado R | 500 | .279 | .332 | .440 | 15 | 36 | 99 |
| Gavin Sheets L | 393 | .250 | .323 | .452 | 17 | 34 | 80 |
| Xander Bogaerts R | 389 | .246 | .317 | .368 | 8 | 34 | 70 |
| Ty France R | 351 | .263 | .330 | .349 | 4 | 16 | 60 |
| Jackson Merrill L | 321 | .279 | .336 | .514 | 15 | 24 | 76 |
| Will Wagner L | 129 | .234 | .341 | .288 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| Nick Solak R | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samad Taylor R | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Versus RHP in 2025, the Padres power source is Tatis (.466 SLG, 20 HR), Sheets (.452 SLG, 17 HR), and Merrill (.514 SLG, 15 HR). Machado's .279 / .332 / .440 line carries 15 HR in 459 AB -- consistent damage but slightly less slug than the top two. Two lefties (Sheets and Merrill) are the platoon vector against May, who carries the heavier vulnerability versus left-handed bats this season (Section 2D). Solak and Taylor's 3 PA zero-lines are noise.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | vs LHB | 334 | .261 | .357 | .495 | .852 | 15 | 82 |
| Dustin May | vs RHB | 250 | .256 | .325 | .386 | .711 | 6 | 41 |
May's 2025 platoon profile shows a real LHB tax: .852 OPS with 15 HR in 287 AB against lefties versus .711 OPS with 6 HR in 223 AB against righties. The HR ratio is the loudest signal -- nearly 2.5x the rate from the left side. Sheets and Merrill are the Padres' primary LHB threats; Wagner is the third (lower-slug but high OBP at .341 vs RHP in 2025). The Padres righty bats can hit too, but May's profile is built to handle them.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | Away | 258 | 57.1 | 6.28 | 50 | 26 | 12 |
| Dustin May | Home | 326 | 75.0 | 3.24 | 73 | 30 | 9 |
Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium -- May pitching home. The home/away gap is the largest single edge in this report: 3.24 ERA at home vs 6.28 ERA on the road across 132.1 IP of career sample. Twelve of his 21 career HR allowed came on the road; only nine at home in more innings. The K rate climbs at home (73 / 75.0 IP) and the BB rate stays similar. Pattern strength: 326 batters faced at home vs 258 away -- not a tiny sample.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | TTO1 | 227 | .226 | .347 | .652 | 5 | 56 | 23 |
| Dustin May | TTO2 | 220 | .290 | .508 | .878 | 9 | 44 | 17 |
| Dustin May | TTO3 | 137 | .263 | .517 | .882 | 7 | 23 | 16 |
May's 2025 TTO profile is sharply step-shaped: he dominates the first pass through the order (.226 AVG, .652 OPS, 5 HR in 227 PA), then falls off a cliff into the second pass (.290 AVG, .878 OPS, 9 HR in 220 PA). The third pass holds at .882 OPS but on a smaller sample. The actionable read: innings 4-6 are the swing window. If the Padres see May the second time with runners on, that is where the game tilts. The Cardinals manager has a deep menu of high-leverage options below to bring in early (Section 2F).
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Chris Roycroft | 12 | 7 | 41.7% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average inherited-runners strand rate is 68.8% (2025 reference). Romero (88.5% on 26 IR) is the clear best arm in the table and the lefty answer to Sheets and Merrill -- expect him in the highest-leverage spot. Svanson (50.0%) and Roycroft (41.7%) are the meltdown risks; if they enter with runners on, the swing in run expectation is large. O'Brien is the listed closer at a respectable 70.0% strand rate. McGreevy's 100% sits on only 3 IR -- not predictive yet.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 372 | 44.1% | 28.2% | 26.6% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- SD
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | .302 | .509 | .113 |
| Ty France | .192 | .660 | .143 |
| Manny Machado | .238 | .694 | .081 |
| Jackson Merrill | .323 | .552 | .098 |
| Gavin Sheets | .240 | .523 | .114 |
| Nick Solak | .167 | .000 | .000 |
| Fernando Tatis | .294 | .681 | .032 |
| Samad Taylor | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Will Wagner | .180 | .556 | .174 |
May's 2025 GB% sits at 48.6% (per his season pitching line); his career profile is 44.1%. Either read frames him as a grounder-leaning righty. The Padres' batted-ball table shows the danger clearly: Machado (.694), Tatis (.681), and France (.660) are LD AVG monsters -- if they barrel one off May, it lands. Conversely, when May induces grounders, he wins -- Machado is .238 on GB, Sheets .240, France .192. The Tatis GB AVG of .294 is the outlier on the dirt-ball side; he beats out infield grounders that other Padres do not.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 11 | 56.0 | 4.98 | .255 | -- | -- |
| Dalton Rushing | 6 | 34.2 | 3.89 | .227 | -- | -- |
| Carlos Narváez | 4 | 21.0 | 4.71 | .299 | -- | -- |
| Austin Barnes | 2 | 12.1 | 4.38 | .250 | -- | -- |
| Connor Wong | 2 | 5.1 | 6.75 | .348 | -- | -- |
The catchers in this table reflect May's prior-club tenure -- Smith, Rushing, Narváez, Barnes, and Wong are not on the Cardinals' active roster. Tonight's starting catcher is Jimmy Crooks (per the lineup card, batting seventh), with Pedro Pagés as the backup. Crooks does not appear in the table at all -- this is a fresh battery with zero shared IP in the available career sample. That is its own scouting angle: pop-time calibration and signal sequencing will be unfamiliar early. Watch the first pass through the order for mistake calls and any hesitation on out pitches.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Fernando Tatis (SD): 32 SB / 7 CS career, 82.1% success rate -- the marquee base-stealing threat on the field tonight. Crooks is making his first start with May behind the plate; the timing window favors Tatis if he reaches first.
Xander Bogaerts (SD): 20 SB / 2 CS, 90.9% success rate -- highest success rate in this matchup. A high-leverage runner in scoring position if he reaches.
Manny Machado (SD): 14 SB / 3 CS, 82.4% success rate. Not the volume threat of Tatis but efficient when he goes.
Gavin Sheets (SD): 2 SB / 1 CS, 66.7%. Low volume.
Jackson Merrill (SD): 1 SB / 2 CS, 33.3% -- if Merrill takes off, he tends to get thrown out.
Ty France (SD): 1 SB / 0 CS, 100% -- one-attempt sample.
Will Wagner (SD): 1 SB / 0 CS, 100% -- one-attempt sample.
No Cardinals base-stealers are reflected in this section's career data. Herrera stole a base yesterday; that is recent context but not a career trend.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Winn at short is the Cardinals' premium glove (.994 Fld%, 64 DPs in 129 G) -- a key turn behind a grounder-leaning starter who induces 48.6% GB this season. Tonight's alignment per the lineup card: Wetherholt at 2B, Winn at SS, Gorman at 3B, Burleson at 1B; Nootbaar in LF, Church in CF, Walker in RF; Crooks behind the plate, Herrera at DH. Walker's 4 errors in RF (.981 Fld%) and Church's 1 error in 7 G in RF historically are the marginal corner-outfield risks if the Padres ground balls leak that way.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Busch Stadium plays as a pitcher-leaning venue historically; the available 2K data does not carry a numeric park factor, so treat this as a neutral-to-pitcher context. The home/away signal in Section 2D-HA does the heavy lifting tonight regardless.
Recent head-to-head: 2025 STL 3-4, 2024 STL 4-3, 2023 STL 3-3, 2022 STL 4-2. Series have leaned even in recent years -- no dominant pattern either way.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
League average benchmarks for context: 22.0% K%, 9.1% BB% in 2026. Walker's 2025 31.8% K% is the only red flag in the top five -- the cleanup bat at a third of his AB ending in strikeouts. Nootbaar's 11.0% 2025 BB% is the lineup's best plate discipline. Burleson runs lean on both ends -- 14.5% K% and 7.2% BB%, a contact-heavy line. Crooks and Church are small samples but both show high-K / low-BB profiles -- 37.0% K% and 0.0% BB% on Crooks is the loudest warning on the bottom of the order.
Padres
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis | 691 | 129 | 18.7% | 89 | 12.9% |
| Manny Machado | 678 | 131 | 19.3% | 55 | 8.1% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 552 | 94 | 17.0% | 48 | 8.7% |
| Gavin Sheets | 545 | 107 | 19.6% | 44 | 8.1% |
| Ty France | 490 | 83 | 16.9% | 22 | 4.5% |
| Jackson Merrill | 483 | 108 | 22.4% | 33 | 6.8% |
| Will Wagner | 149 | 28 | 18.8% | 17 | 11.4% |
| Nick Solak | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 0 | 0.0% |
| Samad Taylor | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 0 | 0.0% |
Tatis's 2025 12.9% BB% is the standout plate-discipline number on either team -- a reach-base threat without needing a hit. Wagner pairs an 11.4% BB% with low SLG, making him a high-OBP secondary option. The Padres top-of-order doesn't strike out much -- Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, France all sit under 20% K% -- so May's whiff path on the first pass is narrower than against a more swing-and-miss lineup. Merrill at 22.4% K% is the one strikeout-prone LHB.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
Burleson, Winn, and Nootbaar carry balanced 2025 profiles -- modest GB%, similar FB%, healthy LD% in the mid-20s. Herrera (52.6% GB%) and Walker (48.9% GB%) are the lineup's ground-ball bats. Church (67.6% GB%) and Crooks (44.4% FB%) are extreme one-way profiles on tiny samples.
Padres
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | 463 | 41.7% | 32.2% | 26.1% |
| Fernando Tatis | 447 | 51.7% | 28.0% | 20.4% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 395 | 45.3% | 26.8% | 27.8% |
| Gavin Sheets | 371 | 39.4% | 30.7% | 29.9% |
| Ty France | 357 | 48.2% | 25.5% | 26.3% |
| Jackson Merrill | 319 | 40.8% | 32.0% | 27.3% |
| Will Wagner | 100 | 50.0% | 23.0% | 27.0% |
| Nick Solak | 9 | 66.7% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Samad Taylor | 6 | 50.0% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
Cross-reference with May's 44.1% career / 48.6% 2026 GB%: Tatis (51.7%), Wagner (50.0%), and France (48.2%) are the Padres' grounder bats -- the matchup runs in May's favor on their at-bats. Machado is the closer-to-even profile (41.7% GB / 32.2% FB) -- exactly the kind of bat that punishes mistake pitches up in the zone, and his 2025 LD AVG of .694 (Section 2G) confirms it. Sheets's 29.9% LD% is the highest in the table -- if May leaves anything middle-in to a lefty, Sheets is the bat that hits it hard.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 132.1 | 123 | 21.1% | 56 | 9.6% | 2.20 |
2026 to date: 21.9% K%, 6.6% BB%, 4-6 record in 13 starts. 2025 baseline: 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, 2.20 K/BB ratio. The walk rate has tightened this season -- 6.6% in 2026 vs 9.6% in 2025 -- which is the cleanest improvement signal in his line. League averages for context are 22.0% K%, 9.1% BB% -- May is right at league K and below-league on walks this year. The strikeout volume is steady; he is winning more on command than swing-and-miss now.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Machado vs May. The biggest BvP sample in tonight's matchup (35 PA, .273 / .314 / .515, 2 HR career) and the highest-power BvP signal. Machado's 2025 LD AVG is .694 -- the contact quality matches the history. First pass, May has to navigate this at-bat without challenging him in the zone. Bottom Line THREAT.
Tatis vs May. Second-largest BvP sample (26 PA, .261 / .346 / .435, 1 HR career) plus 2025 plate discipline (12.9% BB%) plus career SB threat (82.1% success). If Tatis reaches against May once, it can become two bases on its own. Bottom Line WATCH.
May vs Sheets and Merrill. May's 2025 vs LHB profile (.852 OPS, 15 HR in 287 AB) is the platoon vector. Sheets is .250 / .323 / .452 with 17 HR vs RHP in 2025; Merrill is .279 / .336 / .514 with 15 HR. The two highest-slug lefties in the Padres lineup against the side May leaks most. Bottom Line LEFT-HAND CHANNEL.
Romero vs Sheets/Merrill (late). Romero's 88.5% 2025 strand rate is the high-leverage lefty answer. In a tied seventh or eighth with the Padres lefties due up, this is the matchup the Cardinals manager wants -- not Svanson (50.0%) or Roycroft (41.7%). Section 2F.
X-factor: the May-Crooks battery debut. Crooks does not appear in May's career battery table. First start together, first home crowd reading. The signal-sequence inefficiencies that come with any new battery widen Tatis's stolen-base window and lengthen at-bats early. Watch the first pass through the order for catcher mound visits and shake-offs as a tell.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Manny Machado performed against Dustin May in their career?
2. How has Dustin May fared against Fernando Tatis Jr. in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Jackson Merrill in their career?
4. What are Dustin May's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Alec Burleson's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025