NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 42-25 | - | W1 |
| Cardinals | 37-30 | 5.0 | L2 |
| Cubs | 36-34 | 7.5 | W2 |
| Pirates | 35-35 | 8.5 | L2 |
| Reds | 32-36 | 10.5 | L2 |
AL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sox | 37-31 | - | W3 |
| Guardians | 38-33 | 0.5 | W1 |
| Twins | 32-39 | 6.5 | W1 |
| Tigers | 29-41 | 9.0 | L1 |
| Royals | 28-42 | 10.0 | L3 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12 | MIN | Away | L 8-9 |
| Jun 11 | NYM | Away | L 4-5 |
| Jun 10 | NYM | Away | W 9-2 |
| Jun 9 | NYM | Away | W 7-0 |
| Jun 7 | CIN | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 6 | CIN | Home | W 6-5 |
| Jun 5 | CIN | Home | W 10-3 |
| Jun 3 | TEX | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 2 | TEX | Home | L 4-7 |
| Jun 1 | TEX | Home | L 1-2 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Matthew Liberatore (L) -- Cardinals
3-3, 4.48 ERA, 1.51 WHIP across 13 starts and 66.1 IP in 2026 to date. 61 K against 26 BB. 11 HR allowed. 2026 ground-ball rate 40.6%, 2026 K% 21.1%, 2026 BB% 9.0%. He has the slimmest platoon split of either starter -- nearly the same line vs LHB and RHB on his 2025 splits -- so the Twins' 7 RHB / 3 LHB / 3 switch-hitter pool does not present an obvious matchup leverage point. The angle is sequencing: his 2025 second-pass-through-the-order line is the cliff (.310 AVG / .871 OPS in 252 PA), and Target Field's away usage carried 11 HR allowed in 76.0 IP vs 8 HR in 75.2 IP at home.
Connor Prielipp (L) -- Twins
2-4, 5.15 ERA, 1.33 WHIP across 9 starts and 43.2 IP in 2026 to date. 49 K, 18 BB, 4 HR allowed. 2026 K% 25.7% (above league average), 2026 BB% 9.4% (also above average -- runs into trouble through the zone, not over the plate). 2026 ground-ball rate 40.7%. No career BvP rows against any Cardinals batter in the available sample -- the Cardinals are facing him essentially blind, which puts a premium on early-count selectivity and waiting for fastball mistakes.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-12)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .313 | .852 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .193 | .631 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .333 | .886 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .342 | 1.095 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .100 | .708 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .175 | .510 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .400 | 1.500 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | -- | -- |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .214 | .521 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Twins (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson | C | R |
| Martin | RF | R |
| Lee | SS | S |
| Buxton | CF | R |
| Bell | DH | S |
| Clemens | 1B | L |
| Keaschall | 2B | R |
| Arcia | SS | R |
| Lewis | 3B | R |
| Kreidler | CF | R |
| Larnach | LF | L |
| Gray | 3B | L |
| Caratini | C | S |
Handedness: 7 RHB (Jackson, Martin, Buxton, Keaschall, Arcia, Lewis, Kreidler), 3 LHB (Clemens, Larnach, Gray), 3 SHB (Lee, Bell, Caratini).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No confirmed injury or roster updates are available for today's matchup beyond the active rosters shown above. The Cardinals lineup is a prior-day projection (no statsapi-confirmed card yet); the Twins side is rendered from the active roster pool. Watch the lineup card pre-game for late scratches against Prielipp -- the Cardinals have the option to play matchup with Velazquez or Fermin on the bench if a starter is held out.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
No data available for this section.
No Cardinals batter has faced Connor Prielipp in the available career BvP sample. The lineup is essentially looking at him blind -- the matchup will be decided by Prielipp's stuff against the platoon and K%/BB% profiles in 2C, 2L, and 2M, not by any reps history.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Prielipp in our 2025 sample (Velazquez, Fermin, Pages, Jordan, Torres -- no rows).
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell | 6 | 5 | 1 | .200 | .167 | .400 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Victor Caratini | 5 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .400 | .250 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Orlando Arcia | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Royce Lewis | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Martin | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Larnach | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Josh Bell (6 PA), Victor Caratini (5 PA), Orlando Arcia (3 PA), Royce Lewis (1 PA), Austin Martin (1 PA), Trevor Larnach (1 PA).
Every Twins batter with prior reps against Liberatore is in a single-digit-PA sample -- the highest denominator is Bell at 6 PA (1-for-5 with 1 K). Caratini's .400 OBP comes on 1 H + 1 BB in 5 PA. Larnach's 1-for-1 is meaningless on its own. The biggest names on this lineup card -- Buxton, Lewis, Lee, Clemens, Keaschall -- have zero career BvP rows. The matchup is a profile bet, not a history bet, and the platoon and K%/BB% tables carry the analytical load.
Bench note: No meaningful bench BvP rows beyond the table above; Kreidler, Gray, and Jackson have no career BvP sample against Liberatore.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar L | 180 | .201 | .291 | .289 | 3 | 17 | 47 |
| Masyn Winn R | 163 | .255 | .313 | .349 | 2 | 11 | 31 |
| Alec Burleson L | 127 | .271 | .310 | .398 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Iván Herrera R | 124 | .330 | .455 | .660 | 9 | 19 | 18 |
| Jordan Walker R | 107 | .255 | .318 | .347 | 2 | 8 | 32 |
| Nathan Church L | 14 | .417 | .417 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 8 | .250 | .250 | .625 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
The 3 RHB carry the lineup against Prielipp. Herrera's 2025 vs LHP is the elite line: .330/.455/.660 with 9 HR and 19 BB in 124 PA. Walker (.255/.318/.347) and Winn (.255/.313/.349) are league-average bats with same-side advantage. Among the 6 LHB, Nootbaar is the red flag at .201/.291/.289 -- exactly the platoon mismatch a same-side starter targets. Burleson is the exception (.271/.310/.398 vs LHP), and Church's 14-PA sample is too small to lean on.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Lee B | 178 | .266 | .298 | .379 | 5 | 6 | 37 |
| Byron Buxton R | 123 | .306 | .374 | .676 | 10 | 13 | 24 |
| Josh Bell B | 120 | .151 | .250 | .302 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| Royce Lewis R | 119 | .239 | .294 | .394 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| Trevor Larnach L | 118 | .236 | .297 | .311 | 1 | 9 | 30 |
| Kody Clemens L | 89 | .192 | .264 | .218 | 0 | 6 | 23 |
| Luke Keaschall R | 66 | .169 | .242 | .271 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| Victor Caratini B | 62 | .208 | .306 | .434 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| Austin Martin R | 57 | .346 | .404 | .481 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| Orlando Arcia R | 56 | .222 | .250 | .315 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| Alex Jackson R | 32 | .250 | .344 | .679 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| Tristan Gray L | 23 | .364 | .391 | .727 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Ryan Kreidler R | 17 | .077 | .200 | .077 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
Buxton is the headline threat vs LHP at .306/.374/.676 with 10 HR in 123 PA -- and he homered off Liberatore yesterday. Martin's .346/.404/.481 in 57 PA is the right-handed support behind him. Lewis (.239/.294/.394) is league-ish on average but went deep yesterday. The Twins' lefty bats (Larnach, Clemens, Gray) split into one league-average line, one well below (Clemens .192/.264/.218), and one elite-but-tiny (Gray .364/.391/.727 in 23 PA). Bell's switch-hitting line vs LHP is genuinely poor at .151/.250 -- a platoon weakness if he sees Liberatore from the left side of the box.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | vs RHB | 515 | .265 | .304 | .426 | .730 | 16 | 93 |
| Matthew Liberatore | vs LHB | 133 | .274 | .348 | .410 | .758 | 3 | 29 |
Liberatore is platoon-neutral in his career sample (.730 OPS vs RHB, .758 OPS vs LHB) -- not the usual lefty-on-lefty edge a manager would target. Power output diverges sharply: 16 HR allowed vs RHB in 515 PA, only 3 HR vs LHB in 133 PA. Against today's Twins lineup that runs 7 RHB / 3 LHB / 3 switch-hitters, the implication is that the home-run threat is heavily concentrated in the right-handed bats -- Buxton, Lewis, Martin, Keaschall, and Jackson are the names to track for fly-ball damage.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | Away | 334 | 76.0 | 4.03 | 59 | 26 | 11 |
| Matthew Liberatore | Home | 314 | 75.2 | 3.69 | 63 | 14 | 8 |
Today's game is at Target Field -- Liberatore pitching Away. His career away line is 4.03 ERA in 76.0 IP with 11 HR allowed; the home line is 3.69 ERA in 75.2 IP with 8 HR. The walk gap is the more interesting signal: 26 BB on the road vs 14 BB at home in nearly identical innings. Command tightens when he is on familiar mound dirt; expect more traffic from free passes in this start than in a home outing.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO1 | 264 | .237 | .376 | .657 | 8 | 56 | 15 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO2 | 252 | .310 | .511 | .871 | 9 | 40 | 17 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO3 | 132 | .244 | .353 | .641 | 2 | 26 | 8 |
The second pass through the order is the cliff. Liberatore's 2025 TTO2 line is .310 AVG / .511 SLG / .871 OPS over 252 PA with 9 HR allowed -- a sharp jump from the first pass (.237 / .376 / .657, 8 HR). By the third pass through the order he settles back down (.244 / .353 / .641, only 2 HR), which often reflects an earlier hook in real games. The exploit window is innings 4-6: if the Twins are pushing leverage today, this is where it lands.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Chris Roycroft | 12 | 7 | 41.7% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate runs ~68-72%. Romero stands alone at 88.5% over 26 IR -- a true firefighter and the first call when traffic builds. O'Brien (70.0% in 10 IR) is league-average. Leahy is slightly below at 62.1%. The danger arms are stacked at the back: Svanson 50.0%, Graceffo 54.5%, Roycroft 41.7% all sit well below the league mark. Yesterday's loss is a live example -- Graceffo walked two and Stanek inherited a situation that turned into a three-run HR. The fork in this bullpen matters as much as the starter.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | 463 | 39.1% | 31.3% | 27.6% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- MIN
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Arcia | .192 | .571 | .077 |
| Josh Bell | .222 | .526 | .094 |
| Byron Buxton | .344 | .586 | .092 |
| Victor Caratini | .238 | .657 | .051 |
| Kody Clemens | .165 | .571 | .035 |
| Tristan Gray | .167 | .632 | .000 |
| Alex Jackson | .200 | .667 | .176 |
| Luke Keaschall | .314 | .590 | .154 |
| Ryan Kreidler | .125 | .667 | .125 |
| Trevor Larnach | .266 | .589 | .080 |
| Brooks Lee | .216 | .675 | .049 |
| Royce Lewis | .303 | .540 | .081 |
| Austin Martin | .238 | .697 | .148 |
Liberatore's career batted-ball mix runs 39.1% GB / 31.3% FB / 27.6% LD -- below the league ~47% GB benchmark. He gives up contact at all three angles, with a notable line-drive share. Across the Twins lineup, line-drive AVG is the column that screams: Martin .697, Lee .675, Jackson and Kreidler .667, Caratini .657, Gray .632, Larnach .589, Buxton .586. Liberatore's 27.6% LD-allowed rate paired with this lineup's line-drive contact carries real damage potential. Ground-ball performers (Buxton .344, Keaschall .314, Lewis .303) are the other angle of concern.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 15 | 75.2 | 3.93 | .279 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 12 | 63.2 | 4.10 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 11.0 | 2.45 | .225 | -- | -- |
Today's scheduled catcher is Jimmy Crooks, batting 7th. The battery sample is thin and one row reflects prior-team context -- Yohel Pozo is not on the current Cardinals active roster, so his 12 G / 63.2 IP with Liberatore is residual history, not a live option. Pages is the primary alternative behind the plate and carries the biggest sample (15 G / 75.2 IP, 3.93 ERA, .279 AVG-allowed). Crooks-Liberatore have only 2 G / 11.0 IP together, with the best ERA of the three pairings (2.45) and the lowest opposing AVG (.225) -- but the sample is too small to lean on. The freshness of the pairing is the scouting angle: pop-time calibration and pitch-call sequencing in the early innings are the live read.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Byron Buxton -- 24 SB, 0 CS, 100% success. Perfect on the season, and he is the clear running threat at the top of the Twins order.
Luke Keaschall -- 14 SB, 3 CS, 82.4% success. Aggressive secondary threat in the middle of the order.
Royce Lewis -- 12 SB, 2 CS, 85.7% success. Power-and-speed combo at 3B.
Austin Martin -- 11 SB, 4 CS, 73.3% success. Below the typical break-even threshold, but volume signals intent.
Kody Clemens -- 5 SB, 1 CS, 83.3% success. Selective but successful when he goes.
Trevor Larnach -- 4 SB, 4 CS, 50% success. The least dangerous runner in the lineup.
Brooks Lee -- 3 SB, 1 CS, 75% success. Occasional runner.
Ryan Kreidler -- 2 SB, 0 CS, 100% success. Small sample, perfect rate.
Victor Caratini -- 1 SB, 0 CS, 100% success. Catcher; only situational threat.
Crooks behind the plate against four 80%+ runners is the angle -- the running game is live the moment any of Buxton, Lewis, Keaschall, or Clemens reaches base.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Up-the-middle is the strength: Winn at SS is a .994 fielder with 64 double plays in 129 G -- elite range and turn. Burleson at 1B (.990 fielding, 27 DP in 50 G) is reliable. The outfield matrix is mixed: Walker carries 4 errors at RF in 108 G (.981), Nootbaar is clean in LF (1.000 in 107 G), and Church in CF has 18 G of error-free coverage. The relevant risk is on hard-hit balls into the right-field corner against a fly-ball-leaning starter -- Walker's bat is in the 4-hole, but his glove has been the most error-prone of the regulars.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Recent head-to-head has favored the Cardinals: 3-0 in 2025, 2-1 in 2024, 1-2 in 2023 -- 6-3 across the three-season window. The current series is at MIN leads 1-0 after yesterday's 9-8 loss. Target Field plays as a neutral-leaning venue in the available 2K data, with no numeric park factor on file in the report; treat ballpark as a non-edge until the head-to-head sample at this venue builds out further.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Crooks (37.0%) and Walker (31.8%) are the strikeout-prone bats against a 25.7% 2026 K% starter -- both well above the 22.0% league benchmark in their 2025 samples. Burleson's 14.5% K% is the contact anchor. Nootbaar's 11.0% BB% is the highest on-base patience in the lineup, useful as a same-side bat with otherwise weak production vs LHP. Crooks's 0.0% BB% in 46 PA is a wart at the bottom of the order.
Twins
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 566 | 122 | 21.6% | 53 | 9.4% |
| Byron Buxton | 542 | 148 | 27.3% | 41 | 7.6% |
| Josh Bell | 533 | 88 | 16.5% | 57 | 10.7% |
| Brooks Lee | 527 | 92 | 17.5% | 31 | 5.9% |
| Royce Lewis | 403 | 80 | 19.9% | 25 | 6.2% |
| Kody Clemens | 386 | 93 | 24.1% | 29 | 7.5% |
| Victor Caratini | 386 | 65 | 16.8% | 23 | 6.0% |
| Orlando Arcia | 214 | 47 | 22.0% | 10 | 4.7% |
| Luke Keaschall | 207 | 29 | 14.0% | 19 | 9.2% |
| Austin Martin | 181 | 31 | 17.1% | 22 | 12.2% |
| Alex Jackson | 100 | 37 | 37.0% | 5 | 5.0% |
| Tristan Gray | 86 | 19 | 22.1% | 6 | 7.0% |
| Ryan Kreidler | 44 | 19 | 43.2% | 4 | 9.1% |
Kreidler (43.2%), Jackson (37.0%), Buxton (27.3%), and Clemens (24.1%) are the strikeout-prone bats Liberatore should attack with breaking stuff. Martin's 12.2% BB% is the highest patience on the active roster -- a leadoff-type bat the Cardinals should not waste pitches on. Bell (10.7%) is the secondary patience name. Keaschall pairs a 14.0% K% with a 9.2% BB% -- low-K contact at the top is exactly the profile that hurts a TTO2 cliff.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
Herrera's 52.6% GB% is heavy for a power bat -- when he elevates against Prielipp, the damage tends to be acute. Church's 67.6% GB% in a 37-BIP sample is extreme; even when he reaches, the contact stays on the ground. Crooks's 44.4% FB% is high and pairs awkwardly with his 37.0% 2025 K%. Winn and Nootbaar are league-typical line-drive bats around 25-26% LD%.
Twins
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Lee | 378 | 46.6% | 32.3% | 21.2% |
| Trevor Larnach | 364 | 46.4% | 27.5% | 26.1% |
| Josh Bell | 358 | 49.2% | 29.6% | 21.2% |
| Byron Buxton | 307 | 41.7% | 35.5% | 22.8% |
| Royce Lewis | 283 | 38.5% | 39.2% | 22.3% |
| Victor Caratini | 267 | 45.7% | 29.2% | 25.1% |
| Kody Clemens | 234 | 36.3% | 36.8% | 26.9% |
| Orlando Arcia | 152 | 51.3% | 25.7% | 23.0% |
| Luke Keaschall | 148 | 47.3% | 26.4% | 26.4% |
| Austin Martin | 123 | 51.2% | 22.0% | 26.8% |
| Tristan Gray | 56 | 32.1% | 33.9% | 33.9% |
| Alex Jackson | 49 | 40.8% | 34.7% | 24.5% |
| Ryan Kreidler | 19 | 42.1% | 42.1% | 15.8% |
Liberatore's 39.1% career GB% meets a lineup that mostly hits ground balls -- Arcia 51.3%, Martin 51.2%, Bell 49.2%, Keaschall 47.3%, Lee 46.6%, Larnach 46.4%. The friction points are the fly-ball bats: Lewis 39.2% FB%, Clemens 36.8%, Buxton 35.5%, Jackson 34.7%. Gray's 33.9% LD% in a 56-BIP sample is the most line-drive-tilted profile on the active roster. The damage profile is right-handed power on flies against a starter who allows 31.3% FB-rate contact.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | 151.2 | 122 | 18.8% | 40 | 6.2% | 3.05 |
2026 to date: 21.1% K%, 9.0% BB%. 2025 baseline: 18.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 3.05 K/BB. Both K% marks sit below the 22.0% league benchmark; the walk rate has crept up year over year. The 2025 K/BB ratio of 3.05 is solid, but the 2026 9.0% BB% is right at the league mean and shows the command-side regression that pairs poorly with the TTO2 cliff in Section 2E.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Iván Herrera vs Prielipp. Herrera's 2025 vs LHP slash is .330/.455/.660 with 9 HR and 19 BB in 124 PA -- the platoon weapon in this lineup. Prielipp's 25.7% 2026 K% is real, but his 9.4% 2026 BB% gives Herrera room to dictate counts. Power-on-power against the only Twins starter throwing LHP this series wins out, even with Herrera's modest 2026 RISP line (.193/.333/.298).
Byron Buxton vs Liberatore. Buxton went 3-for-3 with a HR off Liberatore yesterday. His 2025 vs LHP line is .306/.374/.676 with 10 HR in 123 PA, and his 35.5% FB% pairs cleanly with Liberatore's 31.3% career FB-rate contact. No career BvP rows on file beyond yesterday's evidence -- but the platoon and recency signals both align, and the TTO2 window is exactly where this bat eats.
Tristan Gray vs Liberatore (small-sample alert). Gray is .364/.391/.727 with 2 HR vs LHP in 2025 across 23 PA. Tiny denominator, but he hits line drives at a 33.9% clip in his 56-BIP sample -- the kind of swing that turns a sample-sized line into runs. No career BvP rows against Liberatore. If Gray is in the box in a leverage spot, Liberatore should not feed him fastballs middle-third.
Cardinals bullpen fork. Romero's 88.5% strand rate in 26 IR is the firefighter; Svanson (50.0%), Graceffo (54.5%), and Roycroft (41.7%) all sit below the league ~68-72% mark. Yesterday's game already showed how a mid-bullpen entry can flip the result -- the bridge from Liberatore to Romero is the highest-leverage decision today.
X-factor: Crooks behind the plate against Twins speed. Buxton is 24-for-24 in SB this season, with Keaschall (82.4%), Lewis (85.7%), and Clemens (83.3%) all elite at converting attempts. Crooks has just 2 G / 11.0 IP paired with Liberatore in 2025 -- a fresh battery against four 80%+ runners is the non-obvious swing variable. The running game opens the moment any of them reaches base.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Ivan Herrera performed against Connor Prielipp in their career?
2. How has Matthew Liberatore fared against Byron Buxton in their career?
3. How has Jordan Walker performed against Taylor Rogers in their career?
4. What are Matthew Liberatore's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Byron Buxton's splits vs LHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Target Field in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025