NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 41-25 | - | L2 |
| Cardinals | 37-29 | 4.0 | L1 |
| Pirates | 35-34 | 7.5 | L1 |
| Cubs | 35-34 | 7.5 | W1 |
| Reds | 32-35 | 9.5 | L1 |
AL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sox | 36-31 | - | W2 |
| Guardians | 37-33 | 0.5 | L4 |
| Twins | 31-39 | 6.5 | L1 |
| Tigers | 29-40 | 8.0 | W1 |
| Royals | 28-41 | 9.0 | L2 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11 | NYM | Away | L 4-5 |
| Jun 10 | NYM | Away | W 9-2 |
| Jun 9 | NYM | Away | W 7-0 |
| Jun 7 | CIN | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 6 | CIN | Home | W 6-5 |
| Jun 5 | CIN | Home | W 10-3 |
| Jun 3 | TEX | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 2 | TEX | Home | L 4-7 |
| Jun 1 | TEX | Home | L 1-2 |
| May 31 | CHC | Home | W 5-1 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Joe Ryan (Twins)
RHP, 2026 to date: 4-3, 3.07 ERA, 1.00 WHIP across 14 GS / 76.1 IP. 84 K vs 16 BB (27.3% K%, 5.2% BB%). 39.9% GB%, 7 HR allowed. The walk rate keeps free baserunners off the board; the K%/BB% gap is elite. 2025 baseline: 28.2% K%, 5.7% BB%, 4.97 K/BB across 171.0 IP.
Kyle Leahy (Cardinals)
RHP, 2026 to date: 5-3, 4.42 ERA, 1.58 WHIP across 12 GS / 59.0 IP. 47 K vs 24 BB (17.5% K%, 8.9% BB%). 54.0% GB%, 8 HR allowed. Sinker-led profile -- ground-ball dominant but the walk total is heavy. 2025 baseline: 22.0% K%, 7.7% BB%, 2.86 K/BB across 88.0 IP.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-11)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .283 | .808 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .185 | .629 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .342 | .901 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .333 | 1.071 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .111 | .777 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .175 | .510 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .500 | 1.850 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | .186 | .559 |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .222 | .540 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Twins (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson | C | R |
| Martin | RF | R |
| Lee | SS | S |
| Buxton | CF | R |
| Bell | DH | S |
| Clemens | 1B | L |
| Keaschall | 2B | R |
| Arcia | SS | R |
| Lewis | 3B | R |
| Kreidler | CF | R |
| Larnach | LF | L |
| Gray | 3B | L |
| Caratini | C | S |
Handedness: 7 RHB (Jackson, Martin, Buxton, Keaschall, Arcia, Lewis, Kreidler), 3 LHB (Clemens, Larnach, Gray), 3 SHB (Lee, Bell, Caratini).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move updates available for today's edition.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 6 | 5 | 3 | .600 | .667 | 1.200 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Burleson | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Iván Herrera | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Masyn Winn | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .667 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Small sample: Lars Nootbaar (6 PA), Alec Burleson (4 PA), Jordan Walker (4 PA), Iván Herrera (2 PA), Masyn Winn (2 PA), Nolan Gorman (3 PA).
Three eye-catching small-sample lines stand out. Nootbaar's 3-for-5 with a HR (6 PA, .667 OBP) is the most useful because the platoon math also favors him -- Ryan allows .447 SLG to LHB across 357 PA. Walker's 3-for-3 with a HR (4 PA) is a bigger surprise given Walker's .200 / .263 / .291 vs RHP line in 2025; the BvP sample is too thin to override the rate-stat baseline. Burleson's 1-for-4 with a HR (4 PA) splits the difference. Herrera (0-for-2, 2 K) and Winn (0-for-2, 1 K) are the only negative samples. Wetherholt, Crooks, and Church carry no career rows against Ryan.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Ryan in the career sample -- Torres, Velázquez, Pagés, and Fermín have no rows on file.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Bell | 2 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .500 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kody Clemens | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tristan Gray | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Victor Caratini | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Larnach | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- | 1.000 | -- | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Small sample: Byron Buxton (1 PA), Josh Bell (2 PA), Kody Clemens (1 PA), Tristan Gray (1 PA), Victor Caratini (1 PA), Trevor Larnach (1 PA).
Six tiny samples and almost nothing to weight. Gray's 1-for-1 single is the only positive line. Buxton (0-for-1), Bell (0-for-1, 1 BB), Clemens (0-for-1), Caratini (0-for-1), and Larnach (0-for-0, 1 BB) round it out. The rest of the lineup pool (Jackson, Martin, Lee, Keaschall, Arcia, Lewis, Kreidler) has no career history against Leahy at all -- the Twins are essentially facing him blind.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Leahy in the career sample. The pinch-hit options carry no rows on file.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Lars Nootbaar L | 403 | .249 | .340 | .394 | 10 | 47 | 72 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Iván Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 38 | .108 | .132 | .162 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Tonight's lineup is 6 LHB / 3 RHB facing a RHP -- a full platoon stack vs Ryan. Burleson is the strongest 2025 vs RHP profile (.296 / .353 / .478 in 419 PA). Nootbaar (.249 / .340 / .394) and Herrera (.268 / .343 / .399) round out the productive set. The drag comes from the low-PA bottom of the order: Church (.114 / .216 / .182 in 51 PA) and Crooks (.108 / .132 / .162 in 38 PA). Gorman (.201 vs RHP) and Walker (.200 vs RHP) are the heart-of-the-order risks, though both carry meaningful HR power.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach L | 449 | .254 | .330 | .428 | 16 | 44 | 92 |
| Byron Buxton R | 421 | .254 | .314 | .518 | 25 | 28 | 124 |
| Josh Bell B | 413 | .262 | .346 | .450 | 18 | 43 | 60 |
| Brooks Lee B | 349 | .220 | .278 | .365 | 11 | 25 | 55 |
| Victor Caratini B | 324 | .268 | .327 | .399 | 9 | 22 | 49 |
| Kody Clemens L | 297 | .219 | .286 | .496 | 19 | 23 | 70 |
| Royce Lewis R | 284 | .236 | .278 | .386 | 9 | 16 | 58 |
| Orlando Arcia R | 158 | .195 | .234 | .282 | 2 | 8 | 36 |
| Luke Keaschall R | 141 | .366 | .447 | .528 | 3 | 16 | 14 |
| Austin Martin R | 124 | .250 | .361 | .308 | 0 | 17 | 21 |
| Alex Jackson R | 68 | .206 | .265 | .381 | 2 | 3 | 27 |
| Tristan Gray L | 63 | .179 | .242 | .286 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| Ryan Kreidler R | 27 | .120 | .185 | .120 | 0 | 2 | 13 |
Twins skew right -- 7 RHB, 3 LHB, 3 SHB in the lineup pool. Leahy is right-handed, so the 2025 vs RHP line is the dominant matchup type here. Keaschall is the danger bat: .366 / .447 / .528 in 141 PA clears the BvP danger thresholds easily. Buxton (.254 vs RHP, .518 SLG, 25 HR) is the power threat. Larnach is the lefty problem -- .254 / .330 / .428 vs RHP across 449 PA with 16 HR. The deep bench (Arcia .195, Jackson .206, Gray .179, Kreidler .120) runs sub-.210 vs RHP -- if the Twins go to those bats late, the platoon edge tilts further toward Leahy.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | vs LHB | 163 | .252 | .337 | .364 | .701 | 3 | 37 |
| Kyle Leahy | vs RHB | 200 | .238 | .270 | .319 | .589 | 2 | 43 |
| Joe Ryan | vs LHB | 357 | .240 | .295 | .447 | .742 | 16 | 85 |
| Joe Ryan | vs RHB | 335 | .192 | .251 | .329 | .580 | 10 | 111 |
Two right-handers with mirror-image 2025 platoon profiles. Leahy is .238 / .589 OPS vs RHB but .252 / .701 OPS vs LHB -- he handles same-side bats meaningfully better. The Twins lineup pool is 7 RHB / 3 LHB / 3 SHB, so the matchup math leans Leahy's way. Ryan is the bigger split: .192 / .580 OPS vs RHB (111 K in 335 PA, 10 HR) is genuinely dominant; .240 / .742 OPS vs LHB (85 K in 357 PA, 16 HR) is where the damage lives. Cardinals stacking 6 LHB tonight targets the worse side of Ryan's profile.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | Away | 173 | 43.2 | 2.68 | 46 | 13 | 2 |
| Kyle Leahy | Home | 190 | 44.1 | 4.47 | 34 | 15 | 3 |
| Joe Ryan | Away | 349 | 86.2 | 3.32 | 93 | 18 | 13 |
| Joe Ryan | Home | 343 | 85.1 | 3.16 | 103 | 21 | 13 |
Tonight at Target Field -- Leahy pitching away, Ryan pitching at home. Leahy's 2025 away split is a notable bonus: 2.68 ERA in 43.2 IP on the road vs 4.47 ERA in 44.1 IP at home. Ryan is balanced: 3.32 ERA away, 3.16 ERA home -- effectively no split. The road context favors Leahy if the 2025 sample carries.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | TTO1 | 355 | .247 | .341 | .645 | 5 | 76 | 28 |
| Kyle Leahy | TTO2 | 8 | .125 | .250 | .375 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Joe Ryan | TTO1 | 284 | .230 | .449 | .746 | 15 | 90 | 21 |
| Joe Ryan | TTO2 | 275 | .210 | .362 | .617 | 9 | 72 | 11 |
| Joe Ryan | TTO3 | 133 | .203 | .325 | .588 | 2 | 34 | 7 |
Ryan's 2025 OPS by pass: .746 (first pass through the order), .617 (second pass), .588 (third pass). Unusual shape -- he gets harder, not easier. Innings 1-3 are where the offense has to take its shots; the .449 SLG and 15 HR at TTO1 say the early counts are where damage shows. Leahy's 2025 sample concentrates almost entirely in the first pass (355 PA at TTO1) with only 8 PA at TTO2 -- he has been a short-outing starter, so the bullpen owns most of the second pass tonight.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate sits around 68-72%. Romero (88.5% on 26 IR) is the bullpen's most reliable fireman -- 23 of 26 stranded. McGreevy's 100% (3 of 3 stranded) is true but the sample is too thin to weight. The trouble starts with Svanson (50.0% on 26 IR) and Graceffo (54.5% on 11 IR) -- both well below the league baseline. Leahy as a reliever earlier in the year stranded 62.1% (29 IR) -- below average but more stable than the back-end gap. If a fork comes with traffic, Romero is the answer; the staff's leverage hierarchy is settled.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 249 | 44.2% | 26.9% | 27.7% |
| Joe Ryan | 419 | 38.7% | 39.9% | 21.2% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- MIN
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Arcia | .192 | .571 | .077 |
| Josh Bell | .222 | .526 | .094 |
| Byron Buxton | .344 | .586 | .092 |
| Victor Caratini | .238 | .657 | .051 |
| Kody Clemens | .165 | .571 | .035 |
| Tristan Gray | .167 | .632 | .000 |
| Alex Jackson | .200 | .667 | .176 |
| Luke Keaschall | .314 | .590 | .154 |
| Ryan Kreidler | .125 | .667 | .125 |
| Trevor Larnach | .266 | .589 | .080 |
| Brooks Lee | .216 | .675 | .049 |
| Royce Lewis | .303 | .540 | .081 |
| Austin Martin | .238 | .697 | .148 |
Leahy's career batted-ball: 44.2% GB%, 26.9% FB%, 27.7% LD% -- he keeps the ball on the ground at a meaningful clip, which interacts with the Twins lineup of GB-tilted bats. Bell (.222 career GB AVG), Arcia (.192), and Lee (.216) all run below-average ground-ball production. Buxton (.344 GB AVG) and Keaschall (.314) are the ground-ball threats -- legs against the infield, not power. Ryan is more fly-prone (38.7% GB%, 39.9% FB%), which paired with Cardinals fly-ball bats (Gorman 41.7% FB% in 2025, Crooks 44.4%) puts HR risk on the board the longer Ryan stays.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 43 | 62.0 | 3.05 | .225 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 13 | 16.0 | 2.25 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 4 | 6.1 | 8.53 | .346 | -- | -- |
| Iván Herrera | 4 | 3.0 | 6.00 | .308 | -- | -- |
Tonight's catcher is Jimmy Crooks (lineup #7). Crooks has paired with Leahy for 4 games and 6.1 IP -- a small sample carrying an 8.53 ERA and .346 AVG allowed in that pairing. Pagés (43 G / 62.0 IP, 3.05 ERA) is the season's primary battery partner for Leahy but is not in tonight's lineup. Pozo (13 G / 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA) appears in the table but is not on the current active roster -- treat his row as historical Cardinals-system context only, not a live option. Herrera (4 G / 3.0 IP, 6.00 ERA) is the DH tonight, not the catcher. The Crooks-Leahy pairing is the live battery: limited reps, mixed early results, and the Twins running threats push pop time and pitch sequencing onto the watchlist.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Twins SB leaders (2025):
-- Byron Buxton: 24 SB, 0 CS (100% success). The headline threat -- speed plus zero caught stealings says he picks his spots and wins.
-- Luke Keaschall: 14 SB, 3 CS (82.4%). High-volume runner with a workable success rate.
-- Royce Lewis: 12 SB, 2 CS (85.7%). Power-and-speed profile -- selective but efficient.
-- Austin Martin: 11 SB, 4 CS (73.3%). The lowest success rate among the high-volume names.
-- Kody Clemens: 5 SB, 1 CS (83.3%).
-- Trevor Larnach: 4 SB, 4 CS (50%). Coin flip -- the staff can challenge him.
-- Brooks Lee: 3 SB, 1 CS (75%).
-- Ryan Kreidler: 2 SB, 0 CS (100%).
-- Victor Caratini: 1 SB, 0 CS (100%).
Read: Buxton, Keaschall, and Lewis are the running core -- 24, 14, and 12 SB respectively, all at 82%+ success rates. Meaningful pace-of-game pressure against an unfamiliar Crooks-Leahy battery.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Tonight's defensive alignment (per lineup): Wetherholt 2B, Burleson 1B, Walker RF, Nootbaar LF, Winn SS, Crooks C, Gorman 3B, Church CF. Winn's .994 fielding percentage at SS across 129 G is the anchor -- 64 DP, 3 E, elite. Walker in RF (.981 across 108 G, 4 E) and Nootbaar in LF (1.000 across 107 G, 0 E) settle the outfield corners. The watch point is Gorman at 3B -- .950 across 54 G, 6 E, the lowest mark among tonight's starters. Crooks at C (1.000 across 14 G) and Church in CF (1.000 across 18 G) are clean within limited samples.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Target Field plays as a roughly neutral venue historically -- modest park-factor swings depending on the year, with no specific numeric park factor in the available 2K data. Cardinals have owned the recent head-to-head sample: 3-0 in 2025, 2-1 in 2024, 1-2 in 2023. The recent body of work tilts decisively Cardinals' way.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Cardinals 2025 K%/BB%: Burleson (14.5% K%, 7.2% BB%) is the cleanest contact bat. Nootbaar (20.4% / 11.0%) has the lineup's best plate discipline -- the only sub-25% K rate paired with above-average walks. Gorman (33.8%), Walker (31.8%), Church (27.7%), and Crooks (37.0%) all sit well above the 22% league K%, which interacts directly with Joe Ryan's 28.2% K% in the worst way for the bottom of the order. Crooks' 0.0% BB% in 46 PA is a structural concern -- no free baserunners from that slot.
Twins
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 566 | 122 | 21.6% | 53 | 9.4% |
| Byron Buxton | 542 | 148 | 27.3% | 41 | 7.6% |
| Josh Bell | 533 | 88 | 16.5% | 57 | 10.7% |
| Brooks Lee | 527 | 92 | 17.5% | 31 | 5.9% |
| Royce Lewis | 403 | 80 | 19.9% | 25 | 6.2% |
| Kody Clemens | 386 | 93 | 24.1% | 29 | 7.5% |
| Victor Caratini | 386 | 65 | 16.8% | 23 | 6.0% |
| Orlando Arcia | 214 | 47 | 22.0% | 10 | 4.7% |
| Luke Keaschall | 207 | 29 | 14.0% | 19 | 9.2% |
| Austin Martin | 181 | 31 | 17.1% | 22 | 12.2% |
| Alex Jackson | 100 | 37 | 37.0% | 5 | 5.0% |
| Tristan Gray | 86 | 19 | 22.1% | 6 | 7.0% |
| Ryan Kreidler | 44 | 19 | 43.2% | 4 | 9.1% |
Twins 2025 K%/BB%: Bell (16.5%) and Caratini (16.8%) are the contact anchors. Keaschall's 14.0% K% paired with 9.2% BB% is the discipline standout. Buxton (27.3%) is K-prone but for power. The pack at the bottom -- Jackson (37.0%), Kreidler (43.2%) -- runs extreme K rates; Leahy's 22.0% K% in 2025 has room to push higher against those bats. Martin's 12.2% BB% is the lineup's only above-average walk rate.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
Cardinals 2025 batted-ball: Gorman runs the lineup's lowest GB% (30.2%) and highest FB% (41.7%) -- a fly-ball power profile that interacts with Ryan's fly-leaning shape (38.7% career GB%). Crooks runs 44.4% FB% in a small 27-BIP sample. Church's 67.6% GB% (37 BIP) is the lineup's biggest small-sample outlier -- a ground-ball-only bat. Burleson, Winn, and Nootbaar all cluster in the 39-42% GB% band -- balanced profiles.
Twins
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Lee | 378 | 46.6% | 32.3% | 21.2% |
| Trevor Larnach | 364 | 46.4% | 27.5% | 26.1% |
| Josh Bell | 358 | 49.2% | 29.6% | 21.2% |
| Byron Buxton | 307 | 41.7% | 35.5% | 22.8% |
| Royce Lewis | 283 | 38.5% | 39.2% | 22.3% |
| Victor Caratini | 267 | 45.7% | 29.2% | 25.1% |
| Kody Clemens | 234 | 36.3% | 36.8% | 26.9% |
| Orlando Arcia | 152 | 51.3% | 25.7% | 23.0% |
| Luke Keaschall | 148 | 47.3% | 26.4% | 26.4% |
| Austin Martin | 123 | 51.2% | 22.0% | 26.8% |
| Tristan Gray | 56 | 32.1% | 33.9% | 33.9% |
| Alex Jackson | 49 | 40.8% | 34.7% | 24.5% |
| Ryan Kreidler | 19 | 42.1% | 42.1% | 15.8% |
Twins 2025 batted-ball: Bell (49.2% GB%), Arcia (51.3%), Martin (51.2%), and Keaschall (47.3%) cluster as ground-ball-leaning bats -- Leahy's 54.0% GB% in 2026 meets them in their preferred contact mode, which favors the pitcher. Kreidler's 42.1% FB% is the lineup's most fly-tilted shape but the 19-BIP sample is too thin to lean on. Lewis (39.2% FB%) and Buxton (35.5% FB%) are the closer-to-average power profiles. The bigger insight: a GB-led starter against a GB-tilted lineup pool produces weak contact at infielders -- positioning matters.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | 171.0 | 194 | 28.2% | 39 | 5.7% | 4.97 |
| Kyle Leahy | 88.0 | 80 | 22.0% | 28 | 7.7% | 2.86 |
Joe Ryan's 2025 K/BB ratio of 4.97 is the report's standout pitching number -- 194 K vs 39 BB across 171.0 IP. The 28.2% K% and 5.7% BB% both clear the league baseline by wide margins. Leahy's 2025 ratio is more pedestrian: 2.86 K/BB on 22.0% K% / 7.7% BB% across 88.0 IP. The walk gap matters most -- Ryan's 5.7% BB% means free baserunners are scarce, so the Cardinals offense needs hits, not gifts.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Lars Nootbaar vs Joe Ryan. 3-for-5 with a HR in 6 career PA, .667 OBP -- a vanishingly small sample, but the platoon math lines up too. Nootbaar's 2025 vs RHP (.249 / .340 / .394) is the lineup's most productive LHB profile against Ryan's hand. Ryan allows .447 SLG to LHB; Nootbaar projects to the at-bat most likely to do extra-base damage.
Jordan Walker vs Joe Ryan. 3-for-3 with a HR in 4 career PA -- the BvP eye-catcher. But Walker is a RHB facing a pitcher who eats RHB (.192 AVG, .580 OPS in 2025), and Walker's 2025 vs RHP is a .200 / .263 / .291 line. The BvP sample is real but tiny; the rate-stat baseline says it's a fade unless the pattern carries.
Luke Keaschall vs Kyle Leahy. Keaschall is the only Twins bat clearing BvP danger thresholds in a 2025 platoon context -- .366 / .447 / .528 in 141 PA vs RHP. Leahy is right-handed; the platoon stack lines up exactly the wrong way. Add the SB threat (14 SB, 82.4%) and Keaschall is the lineup's most complete problem for an unfamiliar Crooks battery.
Crooks-Leahy battery vs Twins speed. 4 G / 6.1 IP together in 2025 (8.53 ERA in that pairing). Buxton (24 SB, 0 CS), Keaschall (14 SB, 82.4%), and Lewis (12 SB, 85.7%) headline the running threats. Pop time and pitch sequencing under an unfamiliar pairing is the watchlist item.
Bullpen fork after Leahy. Leahy's 2025 TTO sample concentrates in the first pass (355 PA at TTO1, 8 PA at TTO2) -- short-outing starter, bullpen onstage early. Romero (88.5% strand on 26 IR) is the asset; Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) sit below the 68-72% league baseline. The arm that enters with traffic decides the middle innings.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Lars Nootbaar performed against Joe Ryan in their career?
2. How has Kyle Leahy fared against Byron Buxton in their career?
3. How has Luke Keaschall performed against JoJo Romero in their career?
4. What are Joe Ryan's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Alec Burleson's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Target Field in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025