NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 41-25 | - | L2 |
| Cardinals | 37-28 | 3.5 | W6 |
| Pirates | 35-33 | 7.0 | W1 |
| Cubs | 34-34 | 8.0 | L3 |
| Reds | 32-35 | 9.5 | L1 |
NL EAST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 45-23 | - | L2 |
| Phillies | 37-31 | 8.0 | W1 |
| Nationals | 35-34 | 10.5 | L1 |
| Marlins | 33-35 | 12.0 | W4 |
| Mets | 29-38 | 15.5 | L2 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10 | NYM | Away | W 9-2 |
| Jun 9 | NYM | Away | W 7-0 |
| Jun 7 | CIN | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 6 | CIN | Home | W 6-5 |
| Jun 5 | CIN | Home | W 10-3 |
| Jun 3 | TEX | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 2 | TEX | Home | L 4-7 |
| Jun 1 | TEX | Home | L 1-2 |
| May 31 | CHC | Home | W 5-1 |
| May 30 | CHC | Home | L 1-6 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Hunter Dobbins (R) -- Cardinals
2026 to date: 1-0, 2.77 ERA across 13.0 IP and 1 GS, 1.31 WHIP, 14 K and 7 BB, 1 HR allowed. Ground-ball lean (63.6% 2026 GB%, 26.4% 2026 K%, 13.2% 2026 BB%). 2025 baseline: 17.6% K%, 6.6% BB%, 2.65 K/BB across 256 BFP and 61.0 IP -- a sharper control profile than the early 2026 line suggests. The second pass through the order is the editorial cliff (see Section 2E), and his road work has historically lagged the home work (see Section 2D-HA).
Christian Scott (R) -- Mets
2026 to date: 2-0, 2.50 ERA across 36.0 IP and 8 GS, 1.31 WHIP, 41 K and 18 BB, 1 HR allowed. Higher-K, fly-ball-leaning profile (26.3% 2026 K%, 11.5% 2026 BB%, 34.9% 2026 GB%). The career database does not carry 2025 platoon, TTO, or batted-ball rows for him, so tonight's read is anchored on the 2026 line and the Cardinals' lack of BvP history (Section 2A is empty -- no Cardinals batter has seen him in the career sample).
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Expected)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .289 | .824 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .189 | .640 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .342 | .901 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .333 | 1.071 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .125 | .864 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .179 | .518 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .333 | .833 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | .186 | .559 |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .222 | .540 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Mets (Expected)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benge | RF | L | .268 | .686 |
| 2 | Bichette | SS | R | .218 | .594 |
| 3 | Soto | DH | L | .194 | .694 |
| 4 | Young | 1B | L | .250 | .708 |
| 5 | Ewing | CF | L | .182 | .515 |
| 6 | Semien | 2B | R | .327 | .765 |
| 7 | Baty | 3B | L | .263 | .713 |
| 8 | Alvarez | C | R | .174 | .460 |
| 9 | Melendez | LF | L | .174 | .709 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Bichette, Semien, Alvarez), 6 LHB (Benge, Soto, Young, Ewing, Baty, Melendez).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move data is available for today.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
No data available for this section.
Scott has no career BvP rows against any Cardinals batter on the active roster. The Cardinals are facing him blind, and the 2025 historical splits for Scott are also empty -- there is no career platoon, TTO, batted-ball, or K%/BB% sample to lean on. The read tonight rests on Scott's 2026-to-date line (Section 1) and the Cardinals' own 2025 profile vs RHP (Section 2C).
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Scott in the career sample (Velazquez, Fermin, Torres, Pages -- no rows).
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Baty | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Soto | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Francisco Alvarez (2 PA), Brett Baty (2 PA), Juan Soto (2 PA).
Every BvP row on this card is 2 PA -- not enough to call a read either direction. Alvarez 2-for-2 is the loudest line in the database, but two at-bats is not a profile. Soto 0-for-2 and Baty 0-for-2 are the mirror. None of the three carries the Section 2C platoon weight or the Section 2L K%/BB% weight, so the 2025 splits carry the actual matchup analysis tonight.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Dobbins in the career sample (Wagaman, Vientos, Torrens, Brujan -- no rows).
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Lars Nootbaar L | 403 | .249 | .340 | .394 | 10 | 47 | 72 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Iván Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 38 | .108 | .132 | .162 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Scott throws right, so the 6 LHB in the lineup (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church) get the platoon side. Burleson's 2025 vs RHP line is .296 / .353 / .478 across 419 PA with 15 HR -- the cleanest profile bat at the top of the order. Nootbaar adds .249 / .340 / .394 across 403 PA, a patient on-base profile (47 BB) without big slug. Gorman's .201 / .294 / .349 in 309 PA is a contact hole, but 9 HR and 37 BB say the on-base and power still play.
The bottom-third LHB are the contact-risk anchors: Church .114 / .216 / .182 in 51 PA, Crooks .108 / .132 / .162 in 38 PA. Both samples are small, but every cut of either is poor. On the right side: Herrera .268 / .343 / .399 in 328 PA is the steadiest RHB profile. Walker .200 / .263 / .291 in 289 PA is the lineup's biggest 2025 contact concern.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette R | 508 | .314 | .364 | .468 | 12 | 36 | 80 |
| Juan Soto L | 468 | .276 | .424 | .572 | 32 | 95 | 78 |
| Marcus Semien R | 390 | .228 | .300 | .379 | 12 | 33 | 67 |
| Brett Baty L | 349 | .256 | .316 | .449 | 15 | 29 | 89 |
| Francisco Alvarez R | 211 | .253 | .327 | .411 | 8 | 17 | 59 |
| MJ Melendez L | 54 | .077 | .111 | .115 | 0 | 2 | 20 |
| Jared Young L | 45 | .171 | .222 | .488 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
Dobbins throws right, so the 6 LHB in the Mets lineup (Benge, Soto, Young, Ewing, Baty, Melendez) get the platoon side. Soto's 2025 vs RHP line of .276 / .424 / .572 in 468 PA -- 32 HR and 95 BB -- is the headline of this matchup and the leverage bat on every PA. Baty (.256 / .316 / .449 in 349 PA, 15 HR) is the second-most-dangerous LHB profile.
On the other end: Melendez's .077 / .111 / .115 line vs RHP in 54 PA is the lineup's biggest hole, and Young's .171 / .222 / .488 in 45 PA is hit-or-miss FB pop without the on-base. Bichette's .314 / .364 / .468 vs RHP across 508 PA is the most consistent right-handed bat to game-plan around.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins | vs LHB | 124 | .267 | .315 | .431 | .746 | 3 | 20 |
| Hunter Dobbins | vs RHB | 132 | .248 | .311 | .372 | .683 | 3 | 25 |
Dobbins's 2025 splits favor the RHB side: .746 OPS vs LHB across 124 PA vs .683 OPS vs RHB across 132 PA. The Mets lineup is stacked 6 LHB to 3 RHB -- the platoon side that has produced more damage in his career sample. Note also that only Scott has no 2025 platoon rows on file, so the read for Cardinals batters tonight rests entirely on their own 2025 vs RHP profile (Section 2C).
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins | Away | 98 | 23.0 | 4.70 | 12 | 8 | 3 |
| Hunter Dobbins | Home | 158 | 38.0 | 2.61 | 33 | 9 | 3 |
Today's game is at Citi Field -- Dobbins pitching away. His 2025 road work was the weaker context: 4.70 ERA across 23.0 IP and 98 BF, with a K rate that sat well below the home sample (12 K away vs 33 K at home across 158 BF). His home line was the workhorse: 2.61 ERA across 38.0 IP. The HR rate held flat across both venues (3 each), so the gap is in K/BB control, not damage allowed.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins | TTO1 | 116 | .208 | .302 | .578 | 1 | 21 | 10 |
| Hunter Dobbins | TTO2 | 105 | .300 | .480 | .813 | 3 | 21 | 5 |
| Hunter Dobbins | TTO3 | 35 | .290 | .484 | .855 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Dobbins's 2025 second pass through the order is the editorial cliff: .300 AVG, .480 SLG, .813 OPS, 3 HR across 105 PA, against a .208 / .302 / .578 first pass through the order in 116 PA. The third pass through the order is even louder on a small sample -- .290 / .484 / .855 in 35 PA with 2 HR -- but the meaningful break happens in innings 4-6, where the line first opens up.
The K rate signal: 21 K in 116 PA in the first pass, 21 K in 105 PA in the second pass, but only 3 K in 35 PA in the third pass. Strikeouts hold steady through the second pass and disappear in the third. If Dobbins is in the game in the seventh, the lineup is squaring him up.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
Romero is the strand-rate leader in the Cardinals bullpen at 88.5% (3 of 26 inherited runners scored), with O'Brien at 70.0% (3 of 10) the next-closest stable arm at a meaningful sample. Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are the danger arms in traffic. League average runs roughly 68-72%, so Romero is well above and Svanson/Graceffo are well below. Leahy's 62.1% is the largest sample on the page (29 IR) and sits just below league. Watch which arm gets the call with runners on -- that's where leverage runs today.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins | 186 | 50.0% | 24.2% | 25.8% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- NYM
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | .291 | .595 | .128 |
| Brett Baty | .199 | .712 | .093 |
| Bo Bichette | .267 | .653 | .089 |
| MJ Melendez | .083 | .200 | .105 |
| Marcus Semien | .241 | .621 | .049 |
| Juan Soto | .227 | .674 | .045 |
| Jared Young | .250 | .333 | .000 |
Dobbins's 2025 batted-ball profile is roughly even -- 50.0% GB%, 25.8% LD%, 24.2% FB% across 186 BIP -- with a slight ground-ball lean. The Mets lineup is largely ground-ball-prone too: Baty 54.9% 2025 GB%, Alvarez 53.1%, Soto 50.3%, Bichette 49.5%. That's four hitters with a ground-ball tendency stacked against a half-and-half pitcher profile.
Career GB AVG matters: Alvarez .291 on grounders, Bichette .267, Young .250 -- when these bats put it on the ground, several still find dirt for hits. The LD column is where damage lives across the board (Baty .712, Soto .674, Bichette .653, Semien .621, Alvarez .595), but Dobbins's 25.8% career LD% is a slight elevation over average. Melendez at .083 GB AVG and .200 LD AVG is the lineup's most beatable contact profile.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Narváez | 11 | 47.0 | 3.45 | .257 | -- | -- |
| Connor Wong | 3 | 13.2 | 3.29 | .259 | -- | -- |
The catchers in the table above (Narvaez, Wong) reflect Scott's prior-team tenure -- neither is on the active Mets roster today. Today's scheduled Mets catcher per the lineup card is Francisco Alvarez, who has 0 IP paired with Scott in this database. That's a fresh battery configuration as far as the available data shows: unfamiliar pop-time calibration and signal-sequencing risk in the first pass through the order.
For reference, the carryover pairings ran clean in their context: Narvaez 3.45 ERA in 47.0 IP and Wong 3.29 ERA in 13.2 IP. Both samples are out of scope for tonight; the actual game-day battery is Scott-Alvarez.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Juan Soto -- 38 SB, 4 CS career, 90.5% success rate. The biggest baserunning threat in this game and a live steal threat on every reach.
Marcus Semien -- 11 SB, 1 CS career, 91.7% success. Selective but efficient.
Brett Baty -- 8 SB, 0 CS career, 100% success. Smaller sample, perfect record.
Bo Bichette -- 4 SB, 3 CS career, 57.1% success. He will run, but the success rate makes him beatable.
Soto is the speed concern. Crooks behind the plate (1.000 fielding pct across 14 G) is clean, but Soto runs on green-light regardless of receiver. With Citi Field a road venue, the Cardinals' battery has to plan for an early steal attempt off a baserunner who almost never gets thrown out.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Today's defensive alignment per the lineup: Winn at SS (0.994 across 129 G, 64 DP turned -- elite middle infield), Wetherholt at 2B, Burleson at 1B (0.990 across 50 G), Gorman at 3B (0.950 across 54 G with 6 E -- the softer glove on the dirt), Walker in RF (0.981 across 108 G), Nootbaar in LF (1.000 across 107 G), Church in CF (1.000 across 18 G), Crooks behind the plate (1.000 across 14 G).
The middle-infield combination of Winn-Wetherholt is the defensive strength against a half-ground-ball pitcher in Dobbins. Gorman at the hot corner is the softer glove on a day when ground-ball contact will fly at him. Multi-position sample on Burleson, Gorman, Church, Nootbaar, and Herrera gives the bench positional flexibility late.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
The available 2K data does not carry a numeric park factor for Citi Field today -- treat this as a neutral venue context until a specific factor is sourced. The recent head-to-head history has not favored the Cardinals: 2-5 in 2025, 2-4 in 2024, 3-4 in 2023, 2-5 in 2022 (9-18 across four seasons). The current series rewrites that pattern -- Cardinals lead 2-0 after a 7-0 shutout and a 9-2 road win, with a sweep on the table today.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Gorman (33.8% 2025 K%) and Walker (31.8% 2025 K%) are the contact-risk anchors -- both well above the 22% league benchmark. Crooks (37.0% 2025 K%, 0.0% 2025 BB% in 46 PA) and Church (27.7% 2025 K%, 4.6% 2025 BB% in 65 PA) are the small-sample extremes at the bottom of the order. Burleson (14.5% 2025 K%) is the cleanest contact profile near the top, with Nootbaar's 11.0% 2025 BB% the discipline anchor.
Mets
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 714 | 137 | 19.2% | 127 | 17.8% |
| Bo Bichette | 628 | 91 | 14.5% | 40 | 6.4% |
| Marcus Semien | 534 | 93 | 17.4% | 50 | 9.4% |
| Brett Baty | 431 | 108 | 25.1% | 33 | 7.7% |
| Francisco Alvarez | 277 | 73 | 26.4% | 27 | 9.7% |
| MJ Melendez | 65 | 23 | 35.4% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jared Young | 47 | 16 | 34.0% | 2 | 4.3% |
Soto's 17.8% 2025 BB% is the standout figure on this page -- nearly double the 9.2% league average and the discipline cap on this lineup. Bichette (14.5% 2025 K%) and Semien (17.4% 2025 K%) carry the cleanest contact profiles. Baty (25.1% 2025 K%) and Alvarez (26.4% 2025 K%) are the contact-risk middle bats. Melendez (35.4% 2025 K%) and Young (34.0% 2025 K%) carry the most extreme contact risk on small samples.
For Dobbins's read: he can pitch to contact through most of this order. Soto's walks change the leverage on every PA he comes to, and Alvarez's contact risk pairs cleanly with the 2025 K rate Dobbins carries.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
Scott carries a 34.9% 2026 GB% -- a fly-ball-leaning profile -- and the Cardinals lineup has the FB bats to attack it. Gorman's 41.7% 2025 FB% is the highest fly-ball profile in the order, with Crooks at 44.4% (small sample) the second. Burleson (33.4% 2025 FB%) and Nootbaar (35.4% 2025 FB%) are the steady middle-FB bats. Herrera (52.6% 2025 GB%) and Church (67.6% 2025 GB%, small sample) are the ground-ball-leaners on the wrong side of Scott's pitcher profile.
Mets
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | 491 | 49.5% | 20.6% | 29.9% |
| Juan Soto | 394 | 50.3% | 27.9% | 21.8% |
| Marcus Semien | 362 | 36.7% | 39.2% | 24.0% |
| Brett Baty | 266 | 54.9% | 20.3% | 24.8% |
| Francisco Alvarez | 162 | 53.1% | 24.1% | 22.8% |
| MJ Melendez | 36 | 33.3% | 52.8% | 13.9% |
| Jared Young | 23 | 34.8% | 39.1% | 26.1% |
Baty (54.9% 2025 GB%), Alvarez (53.1%), Soto (50.3%), and Bichette (49.5%) -- four Mets bats are natural ground-ball hitters into Dobbins's 50.0% career GB% profile (Section 2G). A roughly even pitcher GB profile meets a roughly ground-ball-leaning lineup -- defenders carry the play in those at-bats.
Melendez (52.8% 2025 FB%, small sample) and Semien (39.2% 2025 FB%) are the lineup's fly-ball bats and the cleanest path to a HR off Dobbins. Bichette's 29.9% 2025 LD% is the loudest line-drive profile -- Dobbins's 25.8% career LD% means Bichette is the bat most likely to square him up.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins | 61.0 | 45 | 17.6% | 17 | 6.6% | 2.65 |
2026 to date: 26.4% K%, 13.2% BB% across 13.0 IP. 2025 baseline: 17.6% K%, 6.6% BB%, 2.65 K/BB across 256 BFP and 61.0 IP. The 2026 line is louder on both K and BB rates -- a higher-K but wilder version of the 2025 baseline. The walks are the volatility variable today; the strikeouts are real but the early-season free passes are the difference between a clean line and a long inning.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Alec Burleson vs Christian Scott. No career BvP rows and no 2025 splits on file for Scott -- this is a pure profile bet. Burleson is the cleanest LHB profile in the lineup at .296 / .353 / .478 across 419 PA vs RHP (Section 2C), batting third in a stack of six left-handed bats against a right-handed starter.
Hunter Dobbins vs Juan Soto. 2 career PA, 0-for-2 -- no read. What matters is Soto's .424 OBP and 17.8% 2025 BB% (Section 2L) against Dobbins's loose 2026 control (13.2% BB%, 7 BB in 13.0 IP). The walk-or-damage decision is the leverage call any time Soto comes up.
Hunter Dobbins vs Francisco Alvarez. 2 career PA, 2-for-2 (Section 2B) -- the loudest BvP line on the page in either direction, even on a tiny sample. Pair it with Alvarez's .595 career LD AVG (Section 2G) and his role as Scott's likely receiver and the bottom third of the order has a real small-sample alarm.
X-factor: Scott as an unknown. Scott has no 2025 platoon, TTO, batted-ball, or K%/BB% rows on file -- the career database carries only his 2026-to-date line (Section 1: 2.50 ERA across 36.0 IP, 26.3% K%, 11.5% BB%). The Cardinals have never seen him in the career BvP sample. Whichever side adapts first wins the early innings, and Dobbins's second-pass cliff (Section 2E) gives the Cardinals a window in innings 4-6 if they can stay in the game early.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Christian Scott in their career?
2. How has Hunter Dobbins fared against Juan Soto in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Brett Baty in their career?
4. What are Hunter Dobbins's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Juan Soto's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Citi Field in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025