NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 41-24 | - | L1 |
| Cardinals | 36-28 | 4.5 | W5 |
| Pirates | 34-33 | 8.0 | L4 |
| Cubs | 34-33 | 8.0 | L2 |
| Reds | 32-34 | 9.5 | W1 |
NL EAST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 45-22 | - | L1 |
| Phillies | 36-31 | 9.0 | L1 |
| Nationals | 35-33 | 10.5 | W2 |
| Marlins | 32-35 | 13.0 | W3 |
| Mets | 29-37 | 15.5 | L1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9 | NYM | Away | W 7-0 |
| Jun 7 | CIN | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 6 | CIN | Home | W 6-5 |
| Jun 5 | CIN | Home | W 10-3 |
| Jun 3 | TEX | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 2 | TEX | Home | L 4-7 |
| Jun 1 | TEX | Home | L 1-2 |
| May 31 | CHC | Home | W 5-1 |
| May 30 | CHC | Home | L 1-6 |
| May 29 | CHC | Home | W 6-5 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Andre Pallante (R) -- Cardinals
2026 to date: 6-4, 3.96 ERA, 63.2 IP across 12 starts, 1.30 WHIP, 51 K and 23 BB. Ground-ball pitcher (56.6% 2026 GB%, 8 HR allowed). 2025 baseline: 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.79 K/BB across 715 BFP -- the pitch-to-contact profile is consistent and the second pass through the order is where the line slips (see Section 2E).
Austin Warren (R) -- Mets
2026 to date: 1-2, 2.01 ERA, 22.1 IP, 1.12 WHIP, 23 K and 9 BB. Only 1 GS this year -- he is primarily a relief arm getting a spot start tonight. 2025 baseline: 26.5% K%, 11.8% BB%, 2.25 K/BB across 34 BFP and 9.1 IP -- sharp rate stats on a small workload. The open question is how deep he can be stretched against a lineup that has not seen him.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-09)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .289 | .824 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .192 | .651 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .356 | .936 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .316 | 1.009 |
| 5 | Gorman | 3B | L | .186 | .559 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .182 | .526 |
| 7 | Church | CF | L | .222 | .540 |
| 8 | Saggese | LF | R | -- | -- |
| 9 | Pagés | C | R | .118 | .368 |
Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).
Mets (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Ewing | CF | L |
| Bichette | 3B | R |
| Baty | 3B | L |
| Benge | RF | L |
| Wagaman | 1B | R |
| Alvarez | C | R |
| Young | 1B | L |
| Soto | LF | L |
| Torrens | C | R |
| Melendez | DH | L |
| Semien | 2B | R |
| Vientos | 1B | R |
| Bruján | SS | S |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Bichette, Wagaman, Alvarez, Torrens, Semien, Vientos), 6 LHB (Ewing, Baty, Benge, Young, Soto, Melendez), 1 SHB (Bruján).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move data is available for today.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Iván Herrera | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Masyn Winn | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Alec Burleson (1 PA), Iván Herrera (1 PA), Pedro Pagés (1 PA), Masyn Winn (1 PA).
Every Cardinals row on this card is a 1-PA sample, so none of the AVG figures here is a profile read. Herrera's 1-for-1 is not meaningful, and the three 0-for-1 lines (Burleson, Pages, Winn) are not meaningful either. With Warren carrying just 9.1 career IP across 34 batters faced, the Cardinals are essentially facing him blind -- profile and 2025 platoon splits (Section 2C, 2D) will carry the read tonight.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Warren in the career sample (Torres, Crooks, Fermin, Nootbaar, Velazquez -- no rows).
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 11 | 9 | 1 | .111 | .273 | .111 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| MJ Melendez | 7 | 7 | 3 | .429 | .429 | .571 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bo Bichette | 6 | 6 | 2 | .333 | .333 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Semien | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mark Vientos | 5 | 4 | 2 | .500 | .600 | 1.250 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 4 | 3 | 2 | .667 | .750 | .667 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Luis Torrens | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wagaman | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brett Baty | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: MJ Melendez (7 PA), Bo Bichette (6 PA), Marcus Semien (4 PA), Mark Vientos (5 PA), Francisco Alvarez (4 PA), Luis Torrens (2 PA), Eric Wagaman (2 PA), Brett Baty (2 PA).
Soto's 1-for-9 with 2 BB in 11 career PA is the only opposing-lineup BvP that crosses 10 PA. That is the one matchup grounded in real reps: Pallante has limited him to .111 / .273 / .111, no HR, and the two walks tell you he won't give Soto anything to hit in leverage.
The rest of the card is thin sample after thin sample tilting one direction. Vientos 2-for-4 with a HR in 5 PA (.500 / .600 / 1.250), Alvarez 2-for-3 with a walk in 4 PA (.667 / .750 / .667), Melendez 3-for-7 in 7 PA (.429 / .429 / .571), Bichette 2-for-6 (.333 / .333 / .500), Baty 1-for-2 (.500). None of those PA counts is meaningful on its own; the pattern is what's worth flagging.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Iván Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 276 | .225 | .264 | .364 | 9 | 12 | 72 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
Warren throws right, so the 4 LHB in tonight's projected order (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church) get the platoon side. Burleson is the standout 2025 vs RHP profile at .296 / .353 / .478 in 419 PA -- a real number on a real sample. Gorman's .201 AVG vs RHP across 309 PA is a contact hole, but the .349 SLG and 9 HR say the pop still plays. Church carries a .114 / .216 / .182 line in 51 PA -- a small sample, but every cut of it is poor.
On the right side: Walker .200 / .263 / .291 vs RHP in 289 PA is the lineup's biggest contact concern -- a path-of-least-resistance bat for Warren if he survives to a second look. Winn and Herrera profile cleanly enough vs RHP (.309 and .343 OBP).
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette R | 508 | .314 | .364 | .468 | 12 | 36 | 80 |
| Juan Soto L | 468 | .276 | .424 | .572 | 32 | 95 | 78 |
| Marcus Semien R | 390 | .228 | .300 | .379 | 12 | 33 | 67 |
| Brett Baty L | 349 | .256 | .316 | .449 | 15 | 29 | 89 |
| Eric Wagaman R | 330 | .231 | .282 | .330 | 4 | 22 | 64 |
| Mark Vientos R | 327 | .226 | .291 | .395 | 12 | 23 | 84 |
| Francisco Alvarez R | 211 | .253 | .327 | .411 | 8 | 17 | 59 |
| Luis Torrens R | 209 | .220 | .284 | .340 | 5 | 16 | 39 |
| Vidal Bruján B | 78 | .250 | .295 | .306 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| MJ Melendez L | 54 | .077 | .111 | .115 | 0 | 2 | 20 |
| Jared Young L | 45 | .171 | .222 | .488 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
Pallante throws right too, so the 6 LHB on the Mets active-roster pool (Ewing, Baty, Benge, Young, Soto, Melendez) have the platoon side. Soto's .276 / .424 / .572 line vs RHP across 468 PA -- 32 HR, 95 BB -- is the headline of this entire report. Baty (.256 / .316 / .449 in 349 PA) is the second-most-dangerous LHB threat.
On the other end: Melendez's .077 / .111 / .115 line vs RHP in 54 PA is the lineup's biggest hole if he draws a start. Young (.171 / .222 / .488 in 45 PA) has hit-or-miss FB pop without the on-base. Bichette's .314 / .364 / .468 vs RHP across 508 PA is the loudest right-handed bat to game-plan around.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | vs LHB | 347 | .266 | .329 | .434 | .763 | 10 | 60 |
| Andre Pallante | vs RHB | 368 | .275 | .345 | .429 | .774 | 11 | 51 |
| Austin Warren | vs LHB | 17 | .214 | .353 | .429 | .782 | 1 | 5 |
| Austin Warren | vs RHB | 17 | .125 | .176 | .125 | .301 | 0 | 4 |
Pallante's career platoon splits are nearly identical -- .763 OPS vs LHB and .774 OPS vs RHB across 715 PA -- so the Mets' 6 LHB / 6 RHB mix on the roster pool does not hand him an easy side to attack. Warren's career splits are small sample on both sides (17 PA each), but the direction matters: he's been overpowering vs RHB (.125 / .176 / .125 / .301 OPS) and vulnerable vs LHB (.214 / .353 / .429 / .782 OPS with a HR). The Cardinals' 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church) line up against Warren's softer side.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | Away | 375 | 84.2 | 4.89 | 67 | 35 | 11 |
| Andre Pallante | Home | 340 | 78.0 | 5.42 | 44 | 27 | 10 |
| Austin Warren | Away | 5 | 1.1 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Austin Warren | Home | 29 | 8.0 | 2.25 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
Tonight's game is at Citi Field -- Pallante pitching away. His career road line (4.89 ERA across 84.2 IP, 67 K, 35 BB across 375 BF) is his better split: he's posted a 5.42 ERA at home in 78.0 IP. Warren's career road work is 1.1 IP across 5 BF -- ignorable. His career home line (29 BF, 2.25 ERA in 8.0 IP) is the only sample he has, and it's also small.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | TTO1 | 279 | .266 | .393 | .720 | 6 | 35 | 21 |
| Andre Pallante | TTO2 | 270 | .309 | .487 | .868 | 8 | 46 | 27 |
| Andre Pallante | TTO3 | 166 | .217 | .408 | .691 | 7 | 30 | 14 |
| Austin Warren | TTO1 | 30 | .185 | .296 | .563 | 1 | 8 | 3 |
| Austin Warren | TTO2 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .250 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Pallante's 2025 second pass through the order is the editorial line on him: .309 AVG, .487 SLG, .868 OPS, 8 HR in 270 PA. The first pass through the order (.266 / .393 / .720 in 279 PA) and the third pass through the order (.217 / .408 / .691 in 166 PA) are both materially cleaner. Innings 4-6 are where his outings break open.
Warren's TTO data is essentially unusable as a starter read -- 30 PA in the first pass through the order and just 4 PA in the second pass through the order, because nearly all of his career work has been in relief. Tonight is one of his first sustained looks at a lineup, and the open question is how long the Mets let him face it.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
Romero is the strand-rate leader in the Cardinals bullpen at 88.5% (3 of 26 inherited runners scored). Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are the danger arms in traffic situations. League average strand rate runs roughly 68-72%, so Romero is well above and Svanson/Graceffo are well below. Leahy's 62.1% is a touch below league but within working range on the largest sample (29 IR). Watch which arm gets the call with runners on tonight -- that's where the leverage runs.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | 515 | 61.2% | 18.3% | 19.6% |
| Austin Warren | 20 | 40.0% | 45.0% | 15.0% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- NYM
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | .291 | .595 | .128 |
| Brett Baty | .199 | .712 | .093 |
| Bo Bichette | .267 | .653 | .089 |
| Vidal Bruján | .267 | .611 | .176 |
| MJ Melendez | .083 | .200 | .105 |
| Marcus Semien | .241 | .621 | .049 |
| Juan Soto | .227 | .674 | .045 |
| Luis Torrens | .146 | .564 | .190 |
| Mark Vientos | .131 | .731 | .095 |
| Eric Wagaman | .214 | .680 | .078 |
| Jared Young | .250 | .333 | .000 |
Pallante's 61.2% career GB rate is the dominant profile of this game -- he forces ground balls and lives on grounders turning into outs. The Mets lineup is stacked with ground-ball hitters: Baty 54.9% 2025 GB%, Alvarez 53.1%, Torrens 51.5%, Soto 50.3%, Bichette 49.5%, Wagaman 45.8%, Vientos 44.5%. That's seven hitters with a ground-ball lean walking into Pallante's tendency.
Career GB AVG matters too: Bichette is .267 on grounders, Alvarez .291, Semien .241 -- the worry is that even when this lineup hits it on the ground, several of them still find dirt for hits. Vientos at .131 GB AVG is the extreme on the other side: when he hits it on the ground, he is mostly out. The LD column is where danger lives across the board -- Vientos .731, Baty .712, Wagaman .680, Soto .674 -- but Pallante's career LD% is just 19.6%, so squaring him up is the exception.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 15 | 76.1 | 4.60 | .257 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 8 | 37.2 | 6.93 | .303 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 5 | 23.1 | 4.24 | .258 | -- | -- |
| Iván Herrera | 5 | 23.2 | 4.56 | .271 | -- | -- |
The battery card above includes Yohel Pozo, who is not on tonight's active Cardinals roster -- his sample carries over from earlier in the year. Tonight's starting catcher per the lineup card is Pedro Pages, who has the largest pairing sample on the page (15 games, 76.1 IP, 4.60 ERA). Crooks (4.24 ERA in 23.1 IP) and Herrera (4.56 ERA in 23.2 IP) are the smaller-sample alternates.
Pages catching Pallante is the regular battery configuration -- no fresh-pairing risk tonight, no unusual pop-time or signal-sequencing concern. The Pozo 6.93 ERA in the carryover line is what skews the page; the actual game-night pairing is the workhorse one.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Juan Soto -- 38 SB, 4 CS in his career sample, 90.5% success rate. The biggest baserunning threat in this game and a live steal threat on every reach.
Marcus Semien -- 11 SB, 1 CS, 91.7% success. Selective but efficient.
Brett Baty -- 8 SB, 0 CS, 100% success. Smaller sample, perfect record.
Bo Bichette -- 4 SB, 3 CS, 57.1% success. He will run, but the success rate makes him beatable.
Eric Wagaman -- 4 SB, 1 CS, 80.0%.
Vidal Brujan -- 2 SB, 1 CS, 66.7%.
Luis Torrens -- 1 SB, 0 CS, 100%.
Mark Vientos -- 1 SB, 0 CS, 100%.
Soto is the speed concern. With Pages catching (0.994 career fielding pct), the Cardinals have a clean defensive battery -- but Soto's success rate makes him a green-light steal threat regardless of who is receiving.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Tonight's defensive alignment per the lineup card: Winn at SS (0.994 across 129 G, 64 DP turned -- elite middle infield), Wetherholt at 2B, Burleson at 1B (0.990 across 50 G), Gorman at 3B (0.950 across 54 G, 6 E -- the softer glove on the dirt), Walker in RF (0.981 across 108 G, 4 E), Church in CF (1.000 across 18 G, smaller sample), Saggese in LF, Pages behind the plate (0.994 in 110 G). The middle-infield combination is the defensive strength on a night when Pallante is generating 60%+ ground-ball contact -- the up-the-middle gloves matter.
The table also shows Burleson, Gorman, Church, Pages, and Herrera all have multi-position sample, so the bench has positional flexibility if the Mets push the matchup late.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
The available 2K data does not carry a numeric park factor for Citi Field tonight -- treat this as a neutral venue context until a specific factor is sourced. The recent head-to-head history has not favored the Cardinals: 2-5 in 2025, 2-4 in 2024, 3-4 in 2023, 2-5 in 2022. That's 9-18 across four seasons. Yesterday's 7-0 win was a fresh data point against that backdrop, and the Cardinals lead the current series 1-0 with two games left to play.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
Gorman (33.8% 2025 K%) and Walker (31.8% 2025 K%) are the contact-risk anchors -- both well above the 22% league benchmark. Pages (4.9% 2025 BB%) and Church (4.6% 2025 BB%) take few walks. Burleson (14.5% 2025 K%, 7.2% 2025 BB%) is the cleanest contact profile near the top of the order.
Mets
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 714 | 137 | 19.2% | 127 | 17.8% |
| Bo Bichette | 628 | 91 | 14.5% | 40 | 6.4% |
| Marcus Semien | 534 | 93 | 17.4% | 50 | 9.4% |
| Eric Wagaman | 514 | 100 | 19.5% | 32 | 6.2% |
| Mark Vientos | 463 | 115 | 24.8% | 30 | 6.5% |
| Brett Baty | 431 | 108 | 25.1% | 33 | 7.7% |
| Luis Torrens | 283 | 56 | 19.8% | 19 | 6.7% |
| Francisco Alvarez | 277 | 73 | 26.4% | 27 | 9.7% |
| Vidal Bruján | 95 | 21 | 22.1% | 6 | 6.3% |
| MJ Melendez | 65 | 23 | 35.4% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jared Young | 47 | 16 | 34.0% | 2 | 4.3% |
Soto's 17.8% 2025 BB% is the standout figure on this page -- nearly double league average (~9.2%) and the discipline cap on this lineup. Bichette and Semien have the cleanest contact profiles (14.5% and 17.4% 2025 K%). Melendez (35.4% 2025 K%) and Young (34.0% 2025 K%) carry the most extreme contact risk if either draws a start.
For Pallante, the practical read is that he can pitch to contact through most of the lineup -- only Vientos (24.8%), Baty (25.1%), and Alvarez (26.4%) carry meaningfully above-average 2025 K%. Soto's walks change the leverage on every PA he comes to.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Gorman's 41.7% 2025 FB% is the highest fly-ball profile in the Cardinals lineup tonight and the most natural path against Warren's career 45.0% FB% profile. Herrera (52.6% 2025 GB%) and Church (67.6% 2025 GB%) are ground-ball-leaners on the wrong side of Warren's pitcher GB%.
Mets
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | 491 | 49.5% | 20.6% | 29.9% |
| Juan Soto | 394 | 50.3% | 27.9% | 21.8% |
| Eric Wagaman | 367 | 45.8% | 27.8% | 26.4% |
| Marcus Semien | 362 | 36.7% | 39.2% | 24.0% |
| Mark Vientos | 292 | 44.5% | 28.8% | 26.7% |
| Brett Baty | 266 | 54.9% | 20.3% | 24.8% |
| Luis Torrens | 200 | 51.5% | 21.0% | 27.5% |
| Francisco Alvarez | 162 | 53.1% | 24.1% | 22.8% |
| Vidal Bruján | 65 | 46.2% | 26.2% | 27.7% |
| MJ Melendez | 36 | 33.3% | 52.8% | 13.9% |
| Jared Young | 23 | 34.8% | 39.1% | 26.1% |
Baty (54.9% 2025 GB%), Alvarez (53.1%), Torrens (51.5%), Soto (50.3%), and Bichette (49.5%) -- five Mets bats are natural ground-ball hitters into Pallante's 61.2% career GB% profile (Section 2G). That's a stack of high-GB% hitters into a high-GB% pitcher, which is a defender-leans matchup.
Melendez (33.3% 2025 GB%, 52.8% 2025 FB%) and Semien (36.7% 2025 GB%, 39.2% 2025 FB%) are the lineup's fly-ball bats and the cleanest path to a HR off Pallante in either order.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | 162.2 | 111 | 15.5% | 62 | 8.7% | 1.79 |
| Austin Warren | 9.1 | 9 | 26.5% | 4 | 11.8% | 2.25 |
Pallante's 2025 K/BB ratio of 1.79 (15.5% 2025 K%, 8.7% 2025 BB% across 715 BFP) is the pitch-to-contact starter profile -- below the 22% league K%, near the 9.2% league BB%. He lets the defense work. Warren's 2025 K/BB ratio of 2.25 (26.5% 2025 K%, 11.8% 2025 BB% across 34 BFP) reads sharper, but those rates are on 9.1 IP -- not a starter-workload audit.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Alec Burleson vs Austin Warren. 1 PA in the career BvP sample is no read, so profile carries this. Burleson is .296 / .353 / .478 in 419 PA vs RHP in 2025 -- the cleanest profile in the lineup -- and Warren's career vs-LHB line is .214 / .353 / .429 / .782 OPS with a HR in 17 PA (Section 2D). The leverage bat tonight.
Andre Pallante vs Juan Soto. 1-for-9 with 2 BB in 11 career PA is the only opposing-lineup BvP that crosses 10 PA (Section 2B). Pallante has held him to .111 / .273 / .111, no HR. Pair that with Soto's 17.8% 2025 BB% (Section 2L) and the read is that Pallante will pitch around him in any leverage spot.
Mark Vientos vs Andre Pallante. 5 career PA, 2-for-4 with a HR and a BB (.500 / .600 / 1.250). Tiny sample, but the loudest BvP line on this page in either direction (Section 2B), and Vientos profile vs RHP (.226 / .291 / .395 in 327 PA, Section 2C) plus a 28.8% 2025 FB% says he can drive a mistake.
X-factor: bullpen exposure. Warren has 9.1 career IP and 1 GS. He's a spot starter, not a 100-pitch arm. The Mets bullpen takes over earlier than usual, and whoever is warming behind Warren is the pitcher who decides this game. The Cardinals win the bullpen-exposure battle if Warren is gone by the fifth inning.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Austin Warren in their career?
2. How has Andre Pallante fared against Juan Soto in their career?
3. How has Riley O'Brien performed against Juan Soto in their career?
4. What are Andre Pallante's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Alec Burleson's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Citi Field in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025