NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 41-23 | - | W4 |
| Cardinals | 35-28 | 5.5 | W4 |
| Pirates | 34-32 | 8.0 | L3 |
| Cubs | 34-32 | 8.0 | L1 |
| Reds | 31-34 | 10.5 | L5 |
NL EAST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 45-21 | - | W3 |
| Phillies | 36-30 | 9.0 | W2 |
| Nationals | 34-33 | 11.5 | W1 |
| Marlins | 31-35 | 14.0 | W2 |
| Mets | 29-36 | 15.5 | W1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7 | CIN | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 6 | CIN | Home | W 6-5 |
| Jun 5 | CIN | Home | W 10-3 |
| Jun 3 | TEX | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 2 | TEX | Home | L 4-7 |
| Jun 1 | TEX | Home | L 1-2 |
| May 31 | CHC | Home | W 5-1 |
| May 30 | CHC | Home | L 1-6 |
| May 29 | CHC | Home | W 6-5 |
| May 27 | MIL | Away | L 1-2 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Dustin May (R) -- 2026 to date
3-6, 4.59 ERA across 12 starts and 66.2 IP. 60 K against 19 BB (21.5% K%, 6.8% BB%), 1.29 WHIP, 48.0% GB%, 5 HR allowed. May is the Cardinals' road problem this year -- a 3.24 ERA in his career home work flips to 6.28 on the road, and tonight is a road start at Citi Field (see 2D-HA). The 21.5% K rate is league-typical; the leak is on contact when he's away from home.
Freddy Peralta (R) -- 2026 to date
4-4, 3.63 ERA across 13 starts and 72.0 IP. 74 K against 30 BB (23.9% K%, 9.7% BB%), 1.32 WHIP, 47.1% GB%, 9 HR allowed. Peralta carries a 2025 K% of 28.2% and a 3.09 K/BB ratio -- one of the strongest swing-and-miss starter profiles the Cardinals will see in this stretch. The HR rate is the one chink (11-15 HR allowed per home/road split in 2025), and the second pass through the order is where he is most dominant, not most vulnerable (see 2E).
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-07)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .279 | .816 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .192 | .651 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .352 | .921 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .311 | .996 |
| 5 | Gorman | 3B | L | .186 | .559 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .189 | .544 |
| 7 | Church | CF | L | -- | -- |
| 8 | Saggese | LF | R | -- | -- |
| 9 | Pagés | C | R | .118 | .368 |
Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).
Mets (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Ewing | CF | L |
| Bichette | 3B | R |
| Baty | 3B | L |
| Benge | RF | L |
| Wagaman | 1B | R |
| Senger | C | R |
| Young | 1B | L |
| Soto | LF | L |
| Torrens | C | R |
| Melendez | DH | L |
| Semien | 2B | R |
| Vientos | 1B | R |
| Bruján | SS | S |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Bichette, Wagaman, Senger, Torrens, Semien, Vientos), 6 LHB (Ewing, Baty, Benge, Young, Soto, Melendez).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move information is available for today's report. Roster gates filtered to active rosters only -- all players listed in lineups and tables are confirmed active.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 21 | 18 | 4 | .222 | .300 | .333 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Masyn Winn | 16 | 15 | 3 | .200 | .250 | .200 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Nolan Gorman | 14 | 11 | 3 | .273 | .429 | .364 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Jordan Walker | 9 | 9 | 2 | .222 | .222 | .222 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Iván Herrera | 6 | 6 | 3 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pedro Pagés | 4 | 4 | 2 | .500 | .500 | 2.000 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Small sample: Jordan Walker (9 PA), Iván Herrera (6 PA), Pedro Pagés (4 PA).
Burleson (21 PA), Winn (16 PA), and Gorman (14 PA) are the only three with real career BvP samples against Peralta, and none of them is hitting him -- combined .234 (10-for-44) with 0 HR. The eye-catcher is Pagés: 2-for-4 with 2 HR -- a 4 PA sample, but every at-bat has ended in either a homer or a strikeout. Herrera's 3-for-6 is the other small-sample line that bends positive. The Cardinals have collected 70 PA worth of looks at Peralta as a group, which is more familiarity than they had against Lowder last week -- but the OPS line (Burleson .633, Winn .450, Walker .444) does not say the familiarity matters.
Bench note: No career BvP rows vs Peralta for Wetherholt (Phase 1 has a null retro ID), Church, Saggese, or the bench bats (Crooks, Nootbaar, Fermin, Velazquez, Torres). The 6 rows above are the entire Cardinals-vs-Peralta career sample.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 15 | 11 | 2 | .182 | .400 | .364 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Brett Baty | 5 | 5 | 2 | .400 | .400 | .400 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Semien | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Young | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Luis Torrens | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wagaman | 3 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .667 | .500 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Small sample: Brett Baty (5 PA), Marcus Semien (3 PA), Jared Young (3 PA), Luis Torrens (2 PA), Eric Wagaman (3 PA).
Soto's 15-PA career line is the only Mets row with any weight, and the headline is the walks: 4 BB in 15 PA against May, .182 AVG but a .400 OBP. Even when the BvP sample says May has gotten him out (2-for-11), the at-bats have been long -- May has not put Soto away cleanly. Baty's 2-for-5 is the loudest small-sample row in the table. The rest of the Mets group (Semien, Young, Torrens, Wagaman) is 1-for-10 with 2 K across four small samples. This is a profile matchup -- the BvP rows do not tell a story outside of Soto.
Bench note: No career BvP rows vs May for Ewing, Bichette, Benge, Senger, Melendez, Vientos, or Bruján. The 6 rows above are the entire Mets-vs-May career sample.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Iván Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 276 | .225 | .264 | .364 | 9 | 12 | 72 |
Peralta throws right-handed at a Cardinals group of 4 LHB and 5 RHB. Burleson (.296 / .353 / .478 vs RHP in 2025, 15 HR) is again the headliner -- the cleanest L bat against right-handed starters in the league. Gorman (.201 / .294 / .349 vs RHP in 2025, 111 K in 309 PA) is the soft spot of the L bats and walks into a Peralta profile (28.2% 2025 K%) that punishes contact-questionable hitters. Herrera (.268 / .343) is the cleanest right-handed profile; Walker (.200 / .263 vs RHP in 2025) is again the cleanup-spot red flag. Wetherholt, Church, and Saggese have no 2025 vs RHP sample on file.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette R | 508 | .314 | .364 | .468 | 12 | 36 | 80 |
| Juan Soto L | 468 | .276 | .424 | .572 | 32 | 95 | 78 |
| Marcus Semien R | 390 | .228 | .300 | .379 | 12 | 33 | 67 |
| Brett Baty L | 349 | .256 | .316 | .449 | 15 | 29 | 89 |
| Eric Wagaman R | 330 | .231 | .282 | .330 | 4 | 22 | 64 |
| Mark Vientos R | 327 | .226 | .291 | .395 | 12 | 23 | 84 |
| Luis Torrens R | 209 | .220 | .284 | .340 | 5 | 16 | 39 |
| Vidal Bruján B | 78 | .250 | .295 | .306 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| Hayden Senger R | 60 | .196 | .237 | .214 | 0 | 3 | 14 |
| MJ Melendez L | 54 | .077 | .111 | .115 | 0 | 2 | 20 |
| Jared Young L | 45 | .171 | .222 | .488 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
May throws right-handed against a Mets roster pool that splits 6-6 between R and L bats (plus the switch-hitting Bruján). The top of the threat list is right-handed: Bichette (.314 / .364 / .468 vs RHP in 2025) is the cleanest profile against May's hand, and Semien (.228 / .300 / .379, 12 HR) adds slug. Soto's left-handed line vs RHP is the loud one -- .276 / .424 / .572 with 32 HR and 95 BB in 468 PA -- and it directly maps onto May's known LHB vulnerability (see 2D). Baty (.256 / .449 vs RHP in 2025, 15 HR) is the second L threat. The bottom of the table is where May can win at-bats: Melendez (.077 vs RHP in 2025) and Young (.171) are exploitable lefties; Senger (.196) is the right-handed soft spot. Ewing, Benge, and Bichette's deeper vs-RHP line at 3B are not all in the 2025 sample for this query -- Ewing and Benge have no row, Bichette's row is at his old position label.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | vs LHB | 334 | .261 | .357 | .495 | .852 | 15 | 82 |
| Dustin May | vs RHB | 250 | .256 | .325 | .386 | .711 | 6 | 41 |
| Freddy Peralta | vs LHB | 399 | .206 | .299 | .346 | .645 | 12 | 97 |
| Freddy Peralta | vs RHB | 388 | .183 | .257 | .337 | .594 | 14 | 126 |
A mirrored collision. May's platoon line tilts hard against left-handed bats (.261 / .357 / .495 / .852 OPS, 15 HR in 334 PA) and is comfortably better vs RHB (.256 / .325 / .386 / .711, 6 HR in 250 PA). The Mets carry 6 LHB in their pool -- Soto, Baty, Benge, Young, Ewing, Melendez -- and Soto and Baty are the bats built to exploit it. Peralta meanwhile is the inverse profile: he punishes RHB hardest (.183 / .257 / .337 / .594, 126 K in 388 PA) and is only slightly more forgiving to LHB (.206 / .299 / .346 / .645, 97 K in 399 PA). The Cardinals' 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés) are walking into Peralta's strongest split -- the lineup's two L bats with vs-RHP profiles, Burleson and Gorman, are the path to runs.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | Away | 258 | 57.1 | 6.28 | 50 | 26 | 12 |
| Dustin May | Home | 326 | 75.0 | 3.24 | 73 | 30 | 9 |
| Freddy Peralta | Away | 374 | 89.0 | 3.34 | 102 | 40 | 15 |
| Freddy Peralta | Home | 413 | 103.0 | 2.01 | 121 | 32 | 11 |
Tonight's game is at Citi Field -- May pitching away, Peralta pitching at home. Both splits cut against the Cardinals. May's 6.28 away ERA against his 3.24 home mark is a nearly two-runs-of-separation gap, and the road sample carries 12 HR in 57.1 IP (vs 9 HR in 75.0 IP at home) -- the road version of May gives up the long ball. Peralta is even sharper at home (2.01 ERA / 121 K in 103.0 IP at Citi Field) than on the road. The K rate climbs and the BB rate falls when he's home -- the version the Cardinals see tonight is the dominant one.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | TTO1 | 227 | .226 | .347 | .652 | 5 | 56 | 23 |
| Dustin May | TTO2 | 220 | .290 | .508 | .878 | 9 | 44 | 17 |
| Dustin May | TTO3 | 137 | .263 | .517 | .882 | 7 | 23 | 16 |
| Freddy Peralta | TTO1 | 325 | .201 | .359 | .624 | 12 | 104 | 22 |
| Freddy Peralta | TTO2 | 314 | .172 | .326 | .597 | 10 | 88 | 33 |
| Freddy Peralta | TTO3 | 148 | .225 | .333 | .657 | 4 | 31 | 17 |
May's 2025 TTO curve has a real cliff. The first pass through the order is his strongest (.226 / .347 / .652 OPS in 227 PA) -- the early frames are where the Mets will struggle to do damage. The second pass through the order is where May falls off (.290 / .508 / .878 OPS in 220 PA, 9 HR), and the third pass through the order keeps the SLG at .517 with another 7 HR in 137 PA. Innings 4-6 are the May watch window -- the slug damage builds with every additional look. Peralta's curve runs the opposite way: the second pass through the order is his most dominant (.172 / .326 / .597 OPS, 88 K in 314 PA), and the third pass through the order opens up a touch (.225 AVG, .657 OPS) but not in a way the Cardinals' bottom of the order is built to attack.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5% across 26 IR) remains the elite call -- the obvious arm if May walks out of an inning with traffic, particularly with Soto on or coming up. Leahy (62.1%) sits below average. Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are again the danger entries -- a Mets lineup with Soto's 17.8% 2025 BB% and a deep platoon pool will turn inherited traffic into runs. O'Brien (70.0%) is closer to neutral. With May's TTO2 cliff staring at innings 4-6, the fork on the bullpen call could decide the middle innings.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 372 | 44.1% | 28.2% | 26.6% |
| Freddy Peralta | 455 | 38.7% | 36.5% | 24.0% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- NYM
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Baty | .199 | .712 | .093 |
| Bo Bichette | .267 | .653 | .089 |
| Vidal Bruján | .267 | .611 | .176 |
| MJ Melendez | .083 | .200 | .105 |
| Marcus Semien | .241 | .621 | .049 |
| Hayden Senger | .143 | .571 | .000 |
| Juan Soto | .227 | .674 | .045 |
| Luis Torrens | .146 | .564 | .190 |
| Mark Vientos | .131 | .731 | .095 |
| Eric Wagaman | .214 | .680 | .078 |
| Jared Young | .250 | .333 | .000 |
May runs a 44.1% career GB profile -- modestly ground-ball leaning, not extreme. Against this Mets group, the GB AVG column is mostly favorable: Vientos (.131), Senger (.143), Torrens (.146), Baty (.199), Wagaman (.214), Soto (.227), Semien (.241) all sit in May's wheelhouse on the ground. Bichette (.267) is the exception. The fly-ball column is also a wash for May: every Mets bat except Bruján (.176) and Torrens (.190) is under .100 on fly contact. The danger column is line drives -- every Mets hitter except Melendez (.200) carries .550+ on liners, with Vientos (.731), Soto (.674), Bichette (.653), and Baty (.712) the loudest. May's 26.6% career LD% is the part of his profile that gives Mets bats access. Translation: if New York scores, expect it on barreled line-drive contact, not on the routine grounder.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 11 | 56.0 | 4.98 | .255 | -- | -- |
| Dalton Rushing | 6 | 34.2 | 3.89 | .227 | -- | -- |
| Carlos Narváez | 4 | 21.0 | 4.71 | .299 | -- | -- |
| Austin Barnes | 2 | 12.1 | 4.38 | .250 | -- | -- |
| Connor Wong | 2 | 5.1 | 6.75 | .348 | -- | -- |
The catchers above reflect May's prior tenure -- Smith, Rushing, and Barnes are Dodgers catchers from his Los Angeles years; Narváez and Wong are from his Boston stop. None is on the Cardinals' active roster. Tonight's scheduled catcher is Pedro Pagés, who does not appear in May's career battery sample -- 0 IP of paired work in this data. That is a signal in itself: a fresh battery brings unfamiliar pop-time calibration and signal sequencing, particularly with Soto's running game in front of them. Watch the first pass through the order for any sign of cross-up.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Soto -- 38 SB / 4 CS, 90.5% success rate. The headliner of the Mets' running game and the obvious threat with Pagés behind a fresh battery. Expect Soto to test the May / Pagés exchange.
Semien -- 11 SB / 1 CS, 91.7% success rate. High volume, elite efficiency. The other steady runner in this lineup.
Baty -- 8 SB / 0 CS, 100.0% success rate. Perfect on lower volume; picks his spots.
Bichette -- 4 SB / 3 CS, 57.1% success rate. The CS column says the threat is moderate -- not a runner to fear in isolation.
Wagaman -- 4 SB / 1 CS, 80.0% success rate. Selective threat.
Bruján -- 2 SB / 1 CS, 66.7% success rate. Limited volume.
Torrens -- 1 SB / 0 CS, 100.0% success rate. Volume bottom.
Vientos -- 1 SB / 0 CS, 100.0% success rate. Volume bottom.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Tonight's projected infield runs Winn (SS, .994 / 3 E across 129 G), Burleson (1B, .990 / 4 E across 50 G), Gorman (3B, .950 / 6 E across 54 G), and Wetherholt (2B, no fielding sample available). May is a 44.1% career GB pitcher -- the ground will see traffic, just not the extreme volume a heavier GB profile would generate. Gorman / 3B is again the watch point: 6 errors in 54 games is the loudest fielding number in the projected infield. Pagés behind the plate (.994 / 5 E across 110 G) brings the steady catching profile, but the first-time-paired wrinkle with May (see 2H) is the relevant story tonight -- particularly against Soto's 90.5% SB success rate.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Citi Field plays as a pitcher-leaning venue historically -- the available 2K data does not carry a numeric park factor, so treat as a pitcher-tilting context until the head-to-head sample builds out tonight. The recent series record vs the Mets is the right reference: STL went 2-5 in 2025, 2-4 in 2024, 3-4 in 2023, and 2-5 in 2022. Four straight losing seasons head-to-head -- the Mets have been a difficult matchup for the Cardinals across the recent stretch, and this 3-game set opens against the Peralta side of the rotation.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
Two STL whiff-heavy 2025 profiles flag clearly against a 28.2% 2025 K% starter: Gorman (33.8% K%) and Walker (31.8% K%). Both bat in the heart of today's order (5 and 4) and are walking into a Peralta profile built to expose them. Pagés (4.9% BB%) is again the lone low-walk identity; Burleson (14.5% K%) is the contact anchor the lineup will lean on against Peralta's swing-and-miss stuff.
Mets
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 714 | 137 | 19.2% | 127 | 17.8% |
| Bo Bichette | 628 | 91 | 14.5% | 40 | 6.4% |
| Marcus Semien | 534 | 93 | 17.4% | 50 | 9.4% |
| Eric Wagaman | 514 | 100 | 19.5% | 32 | 6.2% |
| Mark Vientos | 463 | 115 | 24.8% | 30 | 6.5% |
| Brett Baty | 431 | 108 | 25.1% | 33 | 7.7% |
| Luis Torrens | 283 | 56 | 19.8% | 19 | 6.7% |
| Vidal Bruján | 95 | 21 | 22.1% | 6 | 6.3% |
| Hayden Senger | 78 | 22 | 28.2% | 3 | 3.8% |
| MJ Melendez | 65 | 23 | 35.4% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jared Young | 47 | 16 | 34.0% | 2 | 4.3% |
Soto's 17.8% 2025 BB% is the loudest single number in the Mets lineup -- elite zone discipline, and a walk that turns into a stolen base 90.5% of the time when it happens. May's 6.8% BB% as a starter in 2026 to date is sturdy, but he has walked Soto 4 times in 15 career PA already (see 2B). The rest of the Mets pool is more contact-typical: Bichette (14.5% K%), Semien (17.4%), Wagaman (19.5%). The whiff flags are the bottom of the depth chart -- Melendez (35.4% K%), Young (34.0%), Senger (28.2%) -- and they are also the players May should pitch into if they hit the lineup. Senger's 3.8% BB% is the lone low-walk profile besides Pagés on either side.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
Gorman's 2025 GB% (30.2%) and FB% (41.7%) make him the lineup's lift-and-pull profile -- the L bat best positioned to drive a Peralta mistake into the seats, even with the strikeout risk on the K side. Herrera (52.6% 2025 GB%) is the ground-ball anchor. Burleson, Winn, Pagés, and Walker all sit in the 39.6%-48.9% 2025 GB% range, which is league-typical.
Mets
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | 491 | 49.5% | 20.6% | 29.9% |
| Juan Soto | 394 | 50.3% | 27.9% | 21.8% |
| Eric Wagaman | 367 | 45.8% | 27.8% | 26.4% |
| Marcus Semien | 362 | 36.7% | 39.2% | 24.0% |
| Mark Vientos | 292 | 44.5% | 28.8% | 26.7% |
| Brett Baty | 266 | 54.9% | 20.3% | 24.8% |
| Luis Torrens | 200 | 51.5% | 21.0% | 27.5% |
| Vidal Bruján | 65 | 46.2% | 26.2% | 27.7% |
| Hayden Senger | 48 | 43.8% | 27.1% | 29.2% |
| MJ Melendez | 36 | 33.3% | 52.8% | 13.9% |
| Jared Young | 23 | 34.8% | 39.1% | 26.1% |
Cross-reference: May runs a 44.1% career GB profile against a Mets group that is mostly ground-ball leaning -- Baty (54.9% 2025 GB%), Torrens (51.5%), Soto (50.3%), Bichette (49.5%), Bruján (46.2%), and Wagaman (45.8%) all feed straight into May's profile. Semien (39.2% 2025 FB%) and Melendez (52.8% 2025 FB%) are the lift bats -- and Melendez's 2025 K% (35.4%) plus his .115 SLG vs RHP in 2025 says the lift bat is hollow tonight. The line-drive column is where May is most exposed across this group; the 2G hitter results match the 2M profiles closely.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 176.2 | 204 | 28.2% | 66 | 9.1% | 3.09 |
| Dustin May | 132.1 | 123 | 21.1% | 56 | 9.6% | 2.20 |
Peralta is the strikeout starter in this matchup -- 2026 to date: 23.9% K%, 9.7% BB%. 2025 baseline: 28.2% K%, 9.1% BB%, K/BB ratio 3.09. The 2025 K% sits well above the 22.1% league average, and the K/BB ratio is the cleanest in the matchup. May's profile is more typical -- 2026 to date: 21.5% K%, 6.8% BB%. 2025 baseline: 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, K/BB ratio 2.20. The Cardinals' Gorman (33.8%) and Walker (31.8%) walk into Peralta's strongest tool tonight, while May's 2026-to-date 6.8% BB% is the sturdiest part of his profile.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Juan Soto vs Dustin May. Career BvP is 2-for-11 with 4 BB and 2 K in 15 PA -- Soto has already shown the discipline to draw walks off May. May's LHB platoon line (.261 / .357 / .495 / .852 OPS, 15 HR in 334 PA) is the structural vulnerability, and Soto's .276 / .424 / .572 vs RHP in 2025 with 32 HR and 95 BB is the bat built to exploit it. If Soto reaches base, his 90.5% SB success rate against a fresh May / Pagés battery is the second-act threat.
Alec Burleson vs Freddy Peralta. The Cardinals' best L bat (.296 / .353 / .478 vs RHP in 2025, 15 HR) against the matchup's best swing-and-miss starter (28.2% 2025 K%, 3.09 K/BB). Burleson's 21-PA career BvP line is unflattering (.222 / .300 / .333) but the platoon edge is the better lens. Peralta's vs-LHB line is his weaker split, and Burleson is the L profile most likely to cash it in.
Bo Bichette vs Dustin May. Bichette's .314 / .364 / .468 vs RHP in 2025 is the cleanest right-handed profile in the Mets pool -- a textbook contact-and-extra-base threat against a starter whose home/road gap collapses on the road (6.28 ERA away). No career BvP rows between the two; this is a profile bet on the right-handed slot of the lineup.
X-factor: May's TTO2 cliff into a Cardinals bullpen handoff. May's 2025 second pass through the order produces an .878 OPS allowed (.290 / .508 with 9 HR in 220 PA) and the third pass holds at .882. The Cardinals' fork is Romero (88.5% 2025 strand rate) vs Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) on inherited traffic -- which arm follows May out of innings 4-6 decides whether a stat-sheet vulnerability turns into a number.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Juan Soto performed against Dustin May in their career?
2. How has Alec Burleson fared against Freddy Peralta in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Juan Soto in their career?
4. What are Dustin May's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Juan Soto's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Citi Field in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025