NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers39-23-W2
Cardinals34-285.0W3
Pirates34-316.5L2
Cubs34-316.5W1
Reds31-328.5L3

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jun 6CINHomeW 6-5
Jun 5CINHomeW 10-3
Jun 3TEXHomeW 5-3
Jun 2TEXHomeL 4-7
Jun 1TEXHomeL 1-2
May 31CHCHomeW 5-1
May 30CHCHomeL 1-6
May 29CHCHomeW 6-5
May 27MILAwayL 1-2
May 26MILAwayL 0-6

STARTING PITCHERS

Michael McGreevy (R) -- 2026 to date

3-5, 2.98 ERA across 12 starts and 66.1 IP. 44 K against 17 BB (14.5% K%, 6.5% BB%), 1.10 WHIP, 53.1% GB%. The ERA reads ace-light, but the home/road split (see 2D-HA) is doing a lot of editorial work: the road number is the dominant identity, the home number is the leak.

Rhett Lowder -- 2026 to date

3-3, 5.40 ERA across 8 starts and 38.1 IP. 27 K against 18 BB (16.3% K%, 10.8% BB%), 1.41 WHIP. The walk rate is a real problem -- Cincinnati is asking him to navigate a Cardinals lineup that takes pitches at the top of the order, and 10.8% BB% in a starter profile is the kind of number that turns a fifth-inning jam into a third-time-through escalation.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-06)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.279.795
2HerreraDHR.200.674
3Burleson1BL.357.934
4WalkerRFR.306.983
5Gorman3BL.186.559
6WinnSSR.189.544
7ChurchCFL----
8SaggeseLFR----
9PagésCR.118.368

Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).

Reds (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

PlayerPosBats
DunnRFR
MyersCFR
ArroyoSSS
SuárezDHR
BledayLFL
McLain2BR
LoweDHL
MarteRFR
HigginsCR
Stewart1BR
SteerLFR
StephensonCR
BensonRFL

Handedness: 9 RHB (Dunn, Myers, Suárez, McLain, Marte, Higgins, Stewart, Steer, Stephenson), 3 LHB (Bleday, Lowe, Benson).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move information is available for today's report. Roster gates filtered to active rosters only -- all players listed in lineups and tables are confirmed active.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson220.000.000.000000
Pedro Pagés221.500.500.500001
Jordan Walker220.000.000.000000

Small sample: Alec Burleson (2 PA), Pedro Pagés (2 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA).

Three rows of 2 PA each -- nothing here separates as a real signal. Pagés' 1-for-2 is the only hit; Burleson and Walker have walked back to the dugout twice apiece. The Cardinals are essentially facing Lowder blind, and the platoon profile (Section 2C) is the better lens for this matchup.

Bench note: No career BvP history vs Lowder for Wetherholt, Herrera, Winn, Gorman, Church, Saggese, or any of the bench bats (Crooks, Nootbaar, Fermin, Scott II, Velazquez, Torres). The 2K career BvP sample against Lowder is exhausted by the three names above.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Noelvi Marte661.167.167.167001
Matt McLain440.000.000.000000
Spencer Steer330.000.000.000000
Will Benson331.333.333.333001
Tyler Stephenson330.000.000.000001
Eugenio Suárez220.000.000.000001
Sal Stewart320.000.333.000010
Nathaniel Lowe320.000.333.000011

Small sample: Noelvi Marte (6 PA), Matt McLain (4 PA), Spencer Steer (3 PA), Will Benson (3 PA), Tyler Stephenson (3 PA), Eugenio Suárez (2 PA), Sal Stewart (3 PA), Nathaniel Lowe (3 PA).

Eight rows under 7 PA each -- McGreevy has essentially worked through this Cincinnati group only as a tertiary read. Marte's 1-for-6 is the only row with any sample at all, and it leans McGreevy's way (.167). The combined line is 2-for-25 with 5 K and 2 BB. This is a profile-driven matchup; the BvP rows do not tell a story.

Bench note: No career BvP history vs McGreevy for Dunn, Myers, Bleday, Arroyo, or Higgins in the available sample. The 8 rows above cover the projected starters who have any rows; the rest are at zero PA.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371
Iván Herrera R328.268.343.399102466
Nolan Gorman L309.201.294.349937111
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194
Pedro Pagés R276.225.264.36491272

Lowder throws as a starter to this Cardinals group of 4 LHB and 5 RHB. The LHB column is anchored by Burleson (.296 / .353 / .478 vs RHP in 2025) -- the headliner. Gorman is the soft spot of the L bats (.201 / .294 / .349 vs RHP in 2025), and the K count is loud (111 in 309 PA). On the right side, Herrera (.268 / .343) is the cleanest profile; Walker (.200 / .263 / .291 vs RHP in 2025) is the lineup's biggest red flag and bats cleanup. Wetherholt, Church, and Saggese carry no 2025 vs RHP sample on file.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Eugenio Suárez R514.247.311.5463930150
Matt McLain R450.215.289.3381239131
Spencer Steer R445.242.320.404154098
Nathaniel Lowe L444.251.331.4251647109
Tyler Stephenson R272.224.294.4111125102
JJ Bleday L271.180.273.377113173
Noelvi Marte R256.275.305.51613857
Will Benson L233.235.279.432101462
Dane Myers R216.208.255.27741256
Sal Stewart R56.269.321.5194415
Blake Dunn R40.147.275.2351312

McGreevy throws right-handed against a Cincinnati pool that lists 9 RHB and 3 LHB. The right-handed bats are where Cincinnati is built: Suarez (.247 / .311 / .546 vs RHP in 2025, 39 HR) is the slug threat; Marte (.275 / .516 vs RHP in 2025) is the second big bat; Steer and Stephenson both carry a .400+ SLG vs RHP. McLain (.215 / .289 vs RHP in 2025) is the most exploitable RHB if McGreevy lives on the edges. The LHB side is thinner: Lowe (.251 / .331) is the cleanest L profile; Bleday is .180 vs RHP in 2025 -- normally a McGreevy vulnerability, but Bleday himself is the problem.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Michael McGreevyvs LHB190.318.368.543.911927
Michael McGreevyvs RHB210.225.255.325.580331

A textbook platoon-collision: McGreevy gets shelled by LHB (.318 / .368 / .543 / .911 OPS, 9 HR in 190 PA in his 2025 platoon line) and dominates RHB (.225 / .255 / .325 / .580 OPS, 3 HR in 210 PA). Cincinnati lists 9 RHB and 3 LHB -- the matchup type strongly favors McGreevy. The risk is concentrated in the L slot: Bleday, Lowe, Benson. Of those three, Lowe is the cleanest profile and Bleday struggles vs RHP regardless. Game-plan note: keep the three L bats in single-A at-bat exposure as much as possible.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Michael McGreevyAway18845.23.552496
Michael McGreevyHome21250.05.2234116

Today's game is at Busch Stadium -- McGreevy pitching at home. The 5.22 home ERA against the 3.55 road mark is a substantial gap, road clearly his stronger context. The K count is actually slightly better at home (34 in 50.0 IP vs 24 in 45.2 IP) -- so the gap is not coming from missed bats, it is coming from contact damage. The HR totals are even (6 and 6), but the cumulative hit and walk profile lets more runners on at home. If today bends, expect it to bend on contact, not on whiffs.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Michael McGreevyTTO1154.282.465.7925228
Michael McGreevyTTO2152.271.417.7154146
Michael McGreevyTTO394.241.379.6773226

An inverted TTO curve. The first pass through the order is where McGreevy gets hit hardest in 2025 (.282 AVG / .465 SLG / .792 OPS), and the line tightens as the night progresses -- second pass through the order is .271 / .417 / .715, third pass through the order is .241 / .379 / .677. The K rate also climbs back up in TTO3 (22 K in 94 PA). This is uncommon, and it shifts the watch window: innings 1-3 are the danger, not innings 7+. If the Reds are going to break through, the early frames are the place to expect it.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5% across 26 IR) is well above league and the obvious arm to call when McGreevy walks out of an inning with traffic. Leahy sits below average at 62.1%, and Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are the danger bullpen entries on inherited situations -- if either of them comes in with runners on, the Cincinnati on-base profile is going to convert. O'Brien at 70.0% is closer to neutral. The fork tonight is which arm follows the starter.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Michael McGreevy30749.2%25.7%24.4%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CIN

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Will Benson.164.628.064
JJ Bleday.237.641.084
Blake Dunn.100.625.000
Nathaniel Lowe.234.548.143
Noelvi Marte.256.704.114
Matt McLain.316.662.043
Dane Myers.235.702.016
Spencer Steer.257.626.066
Tyler Stephenson.194.739.164
Sal Stewart.312.600.000
Eugenio Suárez.212.622.079

McGreevy is a ground-ball-leaning starter (49.2% GB profile across his 307 BIP career sample). Against this Cincinnati group, the GB AVG column tilts his way: most hitters carry .200-.260 GB AVG -- McLain (.316) and Stewart (.312) are the outliers. The fly-ball column is even better for McGreevy: Bleday .084, Suarez .079, Benson .064, McLain .043, Myers .016, Stewart .000. That is the matchup: ground balls and weak fly contact. The line-drive column is where every hitter is dangerous (most are .600+ on LD), but McGreevy's career LD% is 24.4% -- close to league norm. Translation: if Cincinnati does damage, expect it to come on barreled contact, not on the routine grounder.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Pedro Pagés1480.24.24.266----
Jimmy Crooks28.29.35.385----
Yohel Pozo15.20.00.056----

All three catchers above are Cardinals-tenure pairings -- Pagés and Crooks are both currently on the active roster; Pozo's sample is from his earlier STL stint and he is no longer on the 26-man. Tonight's scheduled catcher is Pedro Pagés, who has by far the deepest sample with McGreevy (14 G, 80.2 IP, 4.24 ERA, .266 AVG allowed). This is the primary battery -- no provenance caveat needed. The Crooks pairing (2 G, 9.35 ERA, .385 AVG) is the loud outlier in 8.2 IP, but the sample is too thin to mean anything either way.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

McLain -- 18 SB / 2 CS, 90.0% success rate. The headliner of Cincinnati's running game. Healthy lead from first will pressure Pagés behind the plate.

Myers -- 18 SB / 5 CS, 78.3% success rate. Tied with McLain in raw SB, but the CS column says the success rate is more modest. Still a real threat.

Steer -- 7 SB / 1 CS, 87.5% success rate. Picks his spots; high efficiency on lower volume.

Suarez -- 4 SB / 1 CS, 80.0% success rate. Not a primary running threat at this stage but selectively dangerous.

Marte -- 10 SB / 3 CS, 76.9% success rate. Moderate volume, moderate success.

Lowe -- 1 SB / 0 CS, 100.0% success rate. Volume bottom of the table.

Benson -- 2 SB / 2 CS, 50.0% success rate. The CS column is the story -- not a runner to fear.

Dunn -- 1 SB / 1 CS, 50.0% success rate. Same caveat.

Bleday -- 1 SB / 2 CS, 33.3% success rate. Outright negative running outcome.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Pedro PagésC110650.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Nolan Gorman3B541160.950
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Nolan Gorman2B28910.990
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Nolan Gorman1B7401.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Pedro Pagés1B2101.000
Pedro Pagés2B1001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Tonight's projected infield runs Winn (SS, .994 / 3 E across 129 G), Burleson (1B, .990 / 4 E across 50 G), Gorman (3B, .950 / 6 E across 54 G), and Wetherholt (2B, no fielding sample available). McGreevy is a 49.2% GB pitcher -- the ground will see traffic. The Gorman / 3B sample is the watch point: 6 errors in 54 games is the loudest fielding number in this group, and McGreevy is the pitcher most likely to send the ball his way. Pagés behind the plate (.994 / 5 E across 110 G) brings the steady catching profile against a Cincinnati running game built around McLain and Myers.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium plays as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue historically -- the available 2K data does not carry a numeric park factor, so treat as a neutral context until the head-to-head sample builds out tonight. The recent series record vs Cincinnati is the right reference: STL went 7-6 in 2025, 6-7 in 2024, 7-6 in 2023, and 12-7 in 2022. Four straight near-even seasons (the 2022 imbalance aside) is the realistic baseline expectation. The Cardinals have already taken the first two of this 3-game set; today is the sweep attempt.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Nolan Gorman40213633.8%4711.7%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Pedro Pagés38910727.5%194.9%

Two STL whiff-heavy 2025 profiles flag clearly: Gorman (33.8% K%) and Walker (31.8% K%). Both are way above the 22.0% league average for K%. Both also bat in the heart of today's order (5 and 4). Lowder's 16.3% K% as a starter doesn't make this a strikeout-friendly matchup, but Walker's contact issues will travel. On the BB% side, Pagés (4.9% BB%) is the lone low-walk profile in the group; everyone else is at or near league average.

Reds

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Eugenio Suárez65719629.8%467.0%
Nathaniel Lowe60915926.1%6210.2%
Matt McLain57716728.9%559.5%
Spencer Steer56812922.7%519.0%
Noelvi Marte3608523.6%164.4%
JJ Bleday3449126.5%3610.5%
Tyler Stephenson34211633.9%3710.8%
Dane Myers3337723.1%236.9%
Will Benson2536726.5%166.3%
Blake Dunn752533.3%810.7%
Sal Stewart581525.9%35.2%

Cincinnati is a high-K lineup top to bottom in 2025: Stephenson (33.9%), Dunn (33.3%), Suarez (29.8%), McLain (28.9%), Bleday (26.5%), Benson (26.5%), Lowe (26.1%), Stewart (25.9%) -- eight of the eleven bats are 2025 K% at or above 25.9%, with the league average at 22.0%. That's the matchup for McGreevy: a contact-vulnerable lineup against a 14.5% K% starter. He doesn't need to whiff Cincinnati to beat them; he needs the GB% profile to do the work. Marte (4.4% BB%) is the lone low-walk profile; everyone else takes pitches.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Pedro Pagés24344.9%30.9%24.3%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nolan Gorman19930.2%41.7%28.1%

Gorman's 2025 GB% (30.2%) and FB% (41.7%) make him the lineup's lift-and-pull profile -- exactly the L bat Lowder's RHP profile is built to challenge with elevated four-seamers. Herrera (52.6% 2025 GB%) is the lineup's ground-ball anchor. Burleson, Winn, Pagés, and Walker all sit in the 39.6%-48.9% 2025 GB% range, which is league-typical.

Reds

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Eugenio Suárez37037.0%40.8%22.2%
Nathaniel Lowe36946.3%28.5%25.2%
Spencer Steer36337.5%37.5%25.1%
Matt McLain32741.6%35.8%22.6%
Noelvi Marte24148.5%29.0%22.4%
Dane Myers22245.9%28.4%25.7%
JJ Bleday20239.6%41.1%19.3%
Tyler Stephenson17341.6%31.8%26.6%
Will Benson15140.4%31.1%28.5%
Sal Stewart3842.1%31.6%26.3%
Blake Dunn3262.5%12.5%25.0%

Cross-reference: McGreevy is a 49.2% career GB pitcher meeting a Cincinnati group that mostly puts the ball on the ground. Suarez (40.8% 2025 FB%) and Bleday (41.1% 2025 FB%) are the lift bats -- the ones who turn McGreevy's contact mistakes into runs over the fence. Marte (48.5% 2025 GB%) and Lowe (46.3% 2025 GB%) feed straight into McGreevy's 49.2% GB profile. Dunn's 62.5% GB% is the loudest GB-leaning rate in the group; he is built to roll over McGreevy's sinkers if Cincinnati starts him.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Michael McGreevy95.25814.5%205.0%2.90

McGreevy is a contact starter, not a strikeout starter -- 2026 to date: 14.5% K%, 6.5% BB%. 2025 baseline: 14.5% K%, 5.0% BB%, K/BB ratio 2.90. The K% sits well below the 22.0% league average; the BB% sits comfortably below the 9.2% league benchmark. The identity is clear: pitch to contact, lean on the 49.2% GB profile, keep walks at a minimum. The risk is everywhere a contact starter's risk lives -- one inning of barreled balls can flip the line.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Eugenio Suarez vs Michael McGreevy. Career BvP is a 2-PA blip (0-for-2, 1 K). The bet is profile, not history. Suarez sits at .247 / .311 / .546 with 39 HR vs RHP in the 2025 sample -- the slug rate is the threat. McGreevy's RHB line (.225 / .580 OPS allowed in 2025) wins more often than it loses, but Suarez's 40.8% 2025 FB% is the exact profile built to turn one mistake into a swing of the game.

Alec Burleson vs Rhett Lowder. The cleanest LHB vs RHP matchup in this lineup. Burleson is .296 / .353 / .478 with 15 HR vs RHP in the 2025 sample; Lowder is a 5.40 ERA / 10.8% BB% starter on the year. The 0-for-2 career BvP is noise -- the platoon edge is the real signal. Watch the second AB: Lowder leaks worse the more pitches he throws.

JJ Bleday vs Michael McGreevy. McGreevy's vulnerability vs LHB (.911 OPS allowed in his 2025 platoon line) meets Bleday's slump vs RHP (.180 / .273 in 2025). The structural edge is Bleday's; the actual profile is McGreevy's. Whichever wins out tells us which McGreevy showed up today -- the 3.55-road-ERA version or the 5.22-home-ERA version.

X-factor: McGreevy's home start. 5.22 ERA at Busch this year against 3.55 on the road. The K rate is actually slightly better at home; the home struggle is on contact, not whiffs. If the contact bends today, the bullpen fork (Romero at 88.5% strand, Svanson at 50.0%, Graceffo at 54.5%) decides whether it becomes a number.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Rhett Lowder in their career?

2. How has Michael McGreevy fared against Eugenio Suarez in their career?

3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Nathaniel Lowe in their career?

4. What are Michael McGreevy's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Eugenio Suarez's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025