NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 38-23 | - | W1 |
| Cardinals | 33-28 | 5.0 | W2 |
| Pirates | 34-30 | 5.5 | L1 |
| Cubs | 33-31 | 6.5 | L1 |
| Reds | 31-31 | 7.5 | L2 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5 | CIN | Home | W 10-3 |
| Jun 3 | TEX | Home | W 5-3 |
| Jun 2 | TEX | Home | L 4-7 |
| Jun 1 | TEX | Home | L 1-2 |
| May 31 | CHC | Home | W 5-1 |
| May 30 | CHC | Home | L 1-6 |
| May 29 | CHC | Home | W 6-5 |
| May 27 | MIL | Away | L 1-2 |
| May 26 | MIL | Away | L 0-6 |
| May 25 | MIL | Away | L 1-5 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Cardinals -- Matthew Liberatore (L)
2026 to date: 3-3, 4.35 ERA, 62.0 IP, 57 K, 23 BB, 1.50 WHIP across 12 starts. 2025 baseline: 18.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 3.05 K/BB ratio across 151.2 IP. Liberatore's platoon profile is nearly flat -- right-handers hit .265 / .304 / .426 with 16 HR, lefties .274 / .348 / .410 with 3 HR. Home is his stronger context (3.69 home ERA vs 4.03 away), and he is the home pitcher today.
Reds -- Nick Lodolo (L)
2026 to date: 2-1, 5.20 ERA, 27.2 IP, 22 K, 13 BB, 1.37 WHIP across 5 starts. 2025 baseline: 24.3% K%, 4.8% BB%, 5.03 K/BB ratio across 156.2 IP. Lodolo runs hard reverse splits -- RHB managed .214 / .263 / .375 against him while LHB hit .298 / .361 / .420. His road work is markedly better (2.66 away ERA vs 3.97 at home), and today he is the visitor at Busch.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-05)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .279 | .795 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .204 | .686 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .357 | .926 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .306 | .983 |
| 5 | Gorman | 3B | L | .186 | .559 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .176 | .527 |
| 7 | Church | CF | L | -- | -- |
| 8 | Saggese | LF | R | -- | -- |
| 9 | Pagés | C | R | .121 | .379 |
Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).
Reds (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Dunn | RF | R |
| Myers | CF | R |
| Arroyo | SS | S |
| Suárez | DH | R |
| Bleday | LF | L |
| McLain | 2B | R |
| Lowe | DH | L |
| Marte | RF | R |
| Higgins | C | R |
| Stewart | 1B | R |
| Steer | LF | R |
| Stephenson | C | R |
| Benson | RF | L |
Handedness: 9 RHB (Dunn, Myers, Suárez, McLain, Marte, Higgins, Stewart, Steer, Stephenson), 3 LHB (Bleday, Lowe, Benson), 1 SHB (Arroyo).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move updates are available for today. Active 26-man rosters confirmed for both teams via the morning roster snapshot; the projected Cardinals lineup and the Reds active-roster pool both reflect current personnel.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Masyn Winn | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Iván Herrera | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pedro Pagés | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Alec Burleson (3 PA), Masyn Winn (3 PA), Nolan Gorman (2 PA), Iván Herrera (2 PA), Pedro Pagés (2 PA).
Five Cardinals carry single-digit career PA against Lodolo and none of the samples clears the 10 PA significance line. Burleson (1-for-3), Winn (1-for-3), and Herrera (1-for-2) show contact; Gorman (0-for-2) and Pages (0-for-2) do not. Wetherholt, Walker, Church, and Saggese have no career rows against Lodolo, so today is functionally a profile read for them -- not a history read.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Lodolo in our career sample.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noelvi Marte | 9 | 8 | 3 | .375 | .444 | .750 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 4 | 4 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Spencer Steer | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt McLain | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 5 | 4 | 0 | .000 | .200 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dane Myers | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | 1.333 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sal Stewart | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | 1.333 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Dunn | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Benson | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| JJ Bleday | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Noelvi Marte (9 PA), Tyler Stephenson (4 PA), Spencer Steer (4 PA), Matt McLain (4 PA), Eugenio Suárez (5 PA), Dane Myers (3 PA), Nathaniel Lowe (3 PA), Sal Stewart (3 PA), Blake Dunn (1 PA), Will Benson (1 PA), JJ Bleday (1 PA).
Marte is the danger bat -- 3-for-8 with a HR across 9 PA (.375 / .444 / .750), the only opponent row close to the sample threshold and the only one with extra-base impact. Stewart (1 HR in 3 PA) and Lowe (1 HR in 3 PA) deepen the pattern: every Red with prior contact off Liberatore has hit at least one over the wall, even at small samples. Steer (.250 / .250 / 1.000 with 1 HR in 4 PA) extends the line. Stephenson is the exception -- 0-for-4 with 3 K is a flag in the other direction.
Bench note: No additional Reds beyond the active lineup pool carry meaningful BvP history against Liberatore in our career sample.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn R | 163 | .255 | .313 | .349 | 2 | 11 | 31 |
| Alec Burleson L | 127 | .271 | .310 | .398 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Iván Herrera R | 124 | .330 | .455 | .660 | 9 | 19 | 18 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 113 | .243 | .292 | .359 | 2 | 7 | 35 |
| Jordan Walker R | 107 | .255 | .318 | .347 | 2 | 8 | 32 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 93 | .220 | .301 | .439 | 5 | 10 | 25 |
Herrera is the standout against LHP -- .330 / .455 / .660 with 9 HR in 124 PA in 2025, the strongest line in the room. Burleson (.271 / .310 / .398) and Gorman (.220 / .301 / .439 with 5 HR) anchor the LHB side, batting 3rd and 5th -- directly in the Lodolo crosshairs given his reverse split. Walker's .255 / .318 / .347 against LHP is below his peers but still real. Wetherholt, Church, and Saggese carry no 2025 vs LHP sample, so today's reads on them are profile-based.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suárez R | 196 | .170 | .260 | .439 | 13 | 20 | 64 |
| Nathaniel Lowe L | 172 | .167 | .238 | .263 | 2 | 15 | 51 |
| Matt McLain R | 135 | .239 | .341 | .368 | 3 | 17 | 41 |
| Spencer Steer R | 132 | .231 | .295 | .430 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| Dane Myers R | 117 | .286 | .359 | .419 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| Noelvi Marte R | 108 | .224 | .287 | .265 | 1 | 9 | 30 |
| Tyler Stephenson R | 78 | .246 | .372 | .446 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
| JJ Bleday L | 73 | .324 | .370 | .500 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| Blake Dunn R | 35 | .154 | .371 | .231 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| Will Benson L | 22 | .111 | .227 | .444 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Sal Stewart R | 7 | .286 | .286 | .714 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Bleday is the lefty bat that actually matters against Liberatore -- .324 / .370 / .500 vs LHP in 2025 with 3 HR in 73 PA, the only Reds LHB with both volume and damage. Lowe (.167 / .238 / .263) and Benson (.111 / .227 / .444) struggle deeply against southpaws. On the right side, Myers (.286 / .359 / .419) and Stewart (.286 / .286 / .714 in 7 PA) carry the productive lines; Suarez (.170 / .260 / .439 with 13 HR and 64 K) is power-only. Dunn (.154) is a clear platoon disadvantage if he starts. Cincinnati's roster pool tilts 9 RHB to 3 LHB, so Liberatore sees the side his platoon profile handles best most of the day.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | vs RHB | 515 | .265 | .304 | .426 | .730 | 16 | 93 |
| Matthew Liberatore | vs LHB | 133 | .274 | .348 | .410 | .758 | 3 | 29 |
| Nick Lodolo | vs RHB | 501 | .214 | .263 | .375 | .638 | 19 | 128 |
| Nick Lodolo | vs LHB | 148 | .298 | .361 | .420 | .781 | 3 | 28 |
Liberatore's platoon profile is nearly flat (.730 OPS vs RHB, .758 vs LHB), so Cincinnati's RHB-heavy lineup pool doesn't give him a free pass -- he doesn't really have a preferred side. Lodolo, by contrast, runs a hard reverse split: .638 OPS vs RHB but .781 vs LHB. The Cardinals' 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church) are exactly the bats Lodolo struggles to suppress, and they hold the 1-3-5-7 batting-order slots -- they will be in front of him every pass through the order.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | Away | 334 | 76.0 | 4.03 | 59 | 26 | 11 |
| Matthew Liberatore | Home | 314 | 75.2 | 3.69 | 63 | 14 | 8 |
| Nick Lodolo | Away | 348 | 88.0 | 2.66 | 82 | 16 | 8 |
| Nick Lodolo | Home | 301 | 70.1 | 3.97 | 74 | 15 | 14 |
Liberatore is the home pitcher today and Busch is his stronger split: 3.69 ERA at home vs 4.03 on the road across nearly identical batters-faced samples. Lodolo is the visitor and his road work is meaningfully better than his home line: 2.66 ERA away (88.0 IP) vs 3.97 at home (70.1 IP), with the home/away HR gap (14 home vs 8 away) the most telling difference. Both starters arrive in their statistically favored venue context.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO1 | 264 | .237 | .376 | .657 | 8 | 56 | 15 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO2 | 252 | .310 | .511 | .871 | 9 | 40 | 17 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO3 | 132 | .244 | .353 | .641 | 2 | 26 | 8 |
| Nick Lodolo | TTO1 | 263 | .212 | .357 | .627 | 8 | 69 | 14 |
| Nick Lodolo | TTO2 | 242 | .254 | .406 | .713 | 8 | 63 | 12 |
| Nick Lodolo | TTO3 | 144 | .233 | .398 | .675 | 6 | 24 | 5 |
Liberatore's 2025 TTO line shows a sharp second-pass cliff: first pass through the order at .237 / .376 / .657, then second pass jumps to .310 / .511 / .871 -- the second pass is the danger window. The third pass actually flattens (.244 / .353 / .641), but he rarely gets that deep on a tough day. Lodolo's curve is the opposite shape -- a smoother climb across all three passes (.627 / .713 / .675 OPS), with HR rate creeping up each time through. His third pass is more about contact quality than collapse.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate sits around 68-72%. Romero is the high-strand specialist at 88.5% across 26 inherited runners -- the arm you want in trouble. Svanson at 50.0% is the bullpen's clearest leak. Leahy at 62.1% is just under league average on a heavy 29-runner sample. McGreevy's 100.0% is real but on just 3 runners. Graceffo (54.5%) and O'Brien (70.0%) round out the inherited-runner workload. Today's high-leverage call -- which arm enters with runners on -- is the middle-innings fulcrum.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | 463 | 39.1% | 31.3% | 27.6% |
| Nick Lodolo | 426 | 44.4% | 31.0% | 22.3% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CIN
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benson | .164 | .628 | .064 |
| JJ Bleday | .237 | .641 | .084 |
| Blake Dunn | .100 | .625 | .000 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | .234 | .548 | .143 |
| Noelvi Marte | .256 | .704 | .114 |
| Matt McLain | .316 | .662 | .043 |
| Dane Myers | .235 | .702 | .016 |
| Spencer Steer | .257 | .626 | .066 |
| Tyler Stephenson | .194 | .739 | .164 |
| Sal Stewart | .312 | .600 | .000 |
| Eugenio Suárez | .212 | .622 | .079 |
Liberatore's career batted-ball shape is 39.1% GB / 31.3% FB / 27.6% LD -- balanced with a slight ground-ball lean. Lodolo runs a stronger ground-ball profile at 44.4% GB and a notably lower LD% (22.3%); he keeps the ball down more reliably. On the hitter side, the Reds' career LD averages are uniformly elevated -- Stephenson .739, Marte .704, Myers .702, McLain .662 -- so any well-struck liner against either lefty is a near-automatic hit. Marte (48.5% GB in 2025) and Suarez (40.8% FB in 2025) are the swing-shape contrast in the lineup pool.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 15 | 75.2 | 3.93 | .279 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 12 | 63.2 | 4.10 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 11.0 | 2.45 | .225 | -- | -- |
Today's starting catcher is Pedro Pages, who has caught Liberatore for 75.2 IP across 15 games -- the largest battery sample in the table at a 3.93 ERA and .279 AVG against. Pozo (12 G, 63.2 IP, 4.10 ERA) is no longer on the Cardinals active roster, so that row is historical context only. Crooks is the active backup with 11.0 IP behind Liberatore at a 2.45 ERA -- the smallest sample but the cleanest line. Pages-Liberatore is the most stable pairing in the room and the call today.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
The Reds bring real running threats into the matchup. Both totals come from the 2026 baserunning table.
Dane Myers -- 18 SB / 5 CS (78.3% success). Volume threat at the top of the order.
Matt McLain -- 18 SB / 2 CS (90.0% success). The most efficient base-stealer in the table.
Noelvi Marte -- 10 SB / 3 CS (76.9% success). Secondary threat.
Spencer Steer -- 7 SB / 1 CS (87.5% success). Efficient on lower volume.
Other Reds: Suarez (4/1, 80.0%), Benson (2/2, 50.0%), Lowe (1/0, 100.0%), Dunn (1/1, 50.0%), Bleday (1/2, 33.3%).
Pages's pop time behind Liberatore is the brake on the Myers/McLain threat -- pickoff and slide-step focus matter most when those two reach.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Winn at shortstop is the headline glove (129 G, 64 DP, .994) -- a real range edge on grounders into the 5.5/6 hole. Pages at catcher (110 G, .994) is the framing/blocking baseline behind today's starter. Walker at right field (108 G, 4 E, .981) is the volume outfield presence. Burleson starts at first today and his 1B fielding line is solid (50 G, .990, 27 DP turned). Gorman starts at third today -- his 3B sample (54 G, 6 E, .950) is the team's softest infield glove. Lodolo's 44.4% GB profile pushes most of the action toward the infield, where Winn-Burleson dictates outcomes.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Busch Stadium plays as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue. The available head-to-head sample shows the Cardinals roughly trading with the Reds year by year -- 2025: 7-6, 2024: 6-7, 2023: 7-6, 2022: 12-7. The series record is close to a coin flip over those four seasons; today's edges come from the pitching/lineup configuration, not from a series-level pattern. The Cardinals lead the current series 1-0 after yesterday's 10-3 win.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
Gorman (2025 K% 33.8%) and Walker (2025 K% 31.8%) are the Cardinals' contact risk -- both well above the 25% high-K threshold. Pages's 2025 27.5% K% pairs with a 4.9% BB% (below the 6% low-walk threshold) -- a tough profile against a swing-and-miss arm like Lodolo. Burleson (2025 14.5% K%, 7.2% BB%) is the contact anchor and Herrera (18.7% K%, 9.6% BB%) is the most disciplined bat in the lineup.
Reds
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suárez | 657 | 196 | 29.8% | 46 | 7.0% |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 609 | 159 | 26.1% | 62 | 10.2% |
| Matt McLain | 577 | 167 | 28.9% | 55 | 9.5% |
| Spencer Steer | 568 | 129 | 22.7% | 51 | 9.0% |
| Noelvi Marte | 360 | 85 | 23.6% | 16 | 4.4% |
| JJ Bleday | 344 | 91 | 26.5% | 36 | 10.5% |
| Tyler Stephenson | 342 | 116 | 33.9% | 37 | 10.8% |
| Dane Myers | 333 | 77 | 23.1% | 23 | 6.9% |
| Will Benson | 253 | 67 | 26.5% | 16 | 6.3% |
| Blake Dunn | 75 | 25 | 33.3% | 8 | 10.7% |
| Sal Stewart | 58 | 15 | 25.9% | 3 | 5.2% |
Cincinnati's lineup runs hot on strikeouts. Stephenson (2025 K% 33.9%) and Dunn (33.3%) lead, with Suarez (29.8%), McLain (28.9%), Bleday (26.5%), Lowe (26.1%), Benson (26.5%), and Stewart (25.9%) all above the 25% high-K threshold. Bleday, Lowe, Stephenson, and McLain offset some of that with double-digit BB%, while Marte (4.4%) and Stewart (5.2%) chase. Liberatore's 2025 18.8% K% / 6.2% BB% profile interacts with a lineup engineered to whiff -- if his command holds, the K column should be live.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
Gorman is the team's clear FB-leaner (2025 41.7% FB, 30.2% GB, 28.1% LD) -- the most extreme air-ball profile in the room against a Lodolo who allows .375 SLG to RHB but .420 SLG to LHB. Herrera's 52.6% GB rate is a pure contact ground-ball profile; everyone else clusters around the 40-50% GB band.
Reds
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suárez | 370 | 37.0% | 40.8% | 22.2% |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 369 | 46.3% | 28.5% | 25.2% |
| Spencer Steer | 363 | 37.5% | 37.5% | 25.1% |
| Matt McLain | 327 | 41.6% | 35.8% | 22.6% |
| Noelvi Marte | 241 | 48.5% | 29.0% | 22.4% |
| Dane Myers | 222 | 45.9% | 28.4% | 25.7% |
| JJ Bleday | 202 | 39.6% | 41.1% | 19.3% |
| Tyler Stephenson | 173 | 41.6% | 31.8% | 26.6% |
| Will Benson | 151 | 40.4% | 31.1% | 28.5% |
| Sal Stewart | 38 | 42.1% | 31.6% | 26.3% |
| Blake Dunn | 32 | 62.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
Suarez (2025 40.8% FB) and Bleday (2025 41.1% FB) are the FB-leaners against Liberatore's 39.1% GB / 31.3% FB shape -- the air-ball collisions to watch. Marte (48.5% GB), Lowe (46.3%), Dunn (62.5%), and Myers (45.9%) make up the ground-ball half, meeting Liberatore's slight lean toward grounders. Steer's 37.5% / 37.5% GB/FB split with a 25.1% LD% is the most balanced shape in the pool.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | 151.2 | 122 | 18.8% | 40 | 6.2% | 3.05 |
| Nick Lodolo | 156.2 | 156 | 24.3% | 31 | 4.8% | 5.03 |
Lodolo's 2025 K/BB ratio (5.03) and K% (24.3%) are the stronger profile in the matchup; Liberatore's 3.05 K/BB ratio and 18.8% K% sit a tier below. Lodolo's 2025 4.8% BB% is the single most elite stat on the table -- elite command. Liberatore's 6.2% BB% is still well below the league benchmark (9.2%) so both arms avoid free passes. If Lodolo reaches a third pass with his command intact, the Cardinals are in trouble; Liberatore needs to escape his second pass cleanly to stay in the game.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Noelvi Marte vs Liberatore. 3-for-8 with 1 HR career (9 PA, .375 / .444 / .750 -- Section 2B). The only opponent BvP sample with both volume and extra-base damage. Marte is .224 vs LHP in 2025 with just 1 HR, so this is a Liberatore-specific edge, not a platoon edge.
JJ Bleday vs Liberatore. Bleday hit .324 / .370 / .500 vs LHP in 2025 with 3 HR (Section 2C). Career .641 LD AVG (Section 2G). The lefty who can punish Liberatore when the change misses arm side.
Burleson vs Lodolo. Burleson hit .271 / .310 / .398 vs LHP in 2025 (Section 2C) and is 1-for-3 career against Lodolo (Section 2A). The LHB the Cardinals trust most against Lodolo's reverse split.
X-factor. Liberatore's second-pass cliff (.871 OPS in TTO2 vs .657 in TTO1, Section 2E) lands precisely when Marte, Bleday, and Myers see him again. Innings 4-6 are the high-leverage window today.
Watchlist. Liberatore's second pass through the order (TTO2 .310 / .511 / .871) is the caution flag. Bullpen fork between Romero (88.5% strand) and Svanson (50.0% strand) decides the middle innings if either team gets runners on. Reds team speed -- Myers and McLain both 18 SB -- pushes Pages and Liberatore's hold game into focus.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Noelvi Marte performed against Matthew Liberatore in their career?
2. How has Matthew Liberatore fared against Eugenio Suarez in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against JJ Bleday in their career?
4. What are Matthew Liberatore's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Alec Burleson's splits vs LHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025