NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

Team	W-L	GB	Strk
Brewers	29-18	-	W3
Cubs	29-21	1.5	L5
Cardinals	28-21	2.0	L2
Pirates	26-24	4.5	W2
Reds	26-24	4.5	W2

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

Date	Opp	H/A	Result
May 21	PIT	Home	L 2-6
May 20	PIT	Home	L 0-7
May 19	PIT	Home	W 9-6 (10)
May 17	KC	Home	L 0-2
May 16	KC	Home	W 4-2
May 15	KC	Home	W 5-4 (11)
May 14	OAK	Away	W 5-4
May 13	OAK	Away	L 2-6
May 12	OAK	Away	W 6-4
May 10	SD	Away	L 2-3 (10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Kyle Leahy (R) -- Cardinals

2026 to date: 5-3, 3.94 ERA, 1.55 WHIP across 9 GS / 45.2 IP. 34 K against 20 BB (16.6% K%, 9.8% BB%). Heavy ground-ball profile at 56.2% GB%. 6 HR allowed on 51 H. The walk rate is the open question -- elevated traffic into a hitter-leaning venue is the risk lever tonight.

Chris Paddack (R) -- Reds

2026 to date: 0-5, 7.07 ERA, 1.63 WHIP across 7 GS / 35.2 IP. 30 K against 11 BB (17.8% K%, 6.5% BB%). 49.4% GB%. 6 HR allowed on 47 H. The K and BB rates are workable, but the contact quality has been punishing -- a 7.07 ERA with 6 HR in 35.2 IP says the strike-zone misses are getting hit hard.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-05-21)

#	Player	Pos	Bats	2026 RISP AVG	2026 RISP OPS
1	Wetherholt	2B	L	.324	.928
2	Herrera	DH	R	.257	.858
3	Burleson	1B	L	.339	.899
4	Walker	RF	R	.286	.924
5	Gorman	3B	L	.220	.651
6	Winn	SS	R	.190	.550
7	Church	CF	L	.222	.540
8	Saggese	LF	R	.158	.411
9	Pagés	C	R	.129	.402

Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).

Reds (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

Player	Pos	Bats
Dunn	RF	R
Myers	CF	R
Cruz	SS	S
Bleday	LF	L
Hayes	3B	R
McLain	2B	R
Lowe	DH	L
Higgins	C	R
Stewart	1B	R
Steer	LF	R
Friedl	CF	L
Stephenson	C	R
Benson	RF	L

Handedness: 8 RHB (Dunn, Myers, Hayes, McLain, Higgins, Stewart, Steer, Stephenson), 4 LHB (Bleday, Lowe, Friedl, Benson).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move notes available for today.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Jordan Walker vs Chris Paddack. Walker's .286 AVG and .924 OPS in RISP situations meet a Paddack profile that has surrendered 6 HR in 35.2 IP. He is the cleanup bat built to punish a 7.07-ERA arm that keeps traffic on (1.63 WHIP).

Nathaniel Lowe vs Kyle Leahy. Lowe homered yesterday in St. Louis against the Cardinals' bullpen and brings the left-handed power Cincinnati's lineup needs. Leahy's 9.8% BB% and 1.55 WHIP point to extra at-bats for the Reds' middle order.

Wetherholt + Burleson vs Paddack. The top of the order is hot in RISP spots -- Wetherholt .324 AVG / .928 OPS, Burleson .339 / .899. Paddack's 1.63 WHIP keeps the basepaths busy, exactly what those two need to convert.

X-factor. Leahy carries a 56.2% GB%. If Cincinnati's right-handed-heavy lineup (8 RHB, 4 LHB, 1 switch) elevates against him at Great American Ball Park, his ground-ball formula breaks down. Watch JoJo Romero and Matt Svanson in the high-leverage relief lanes once Leahy turns the order over.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Jordan Walker performed against Chris Paddack in their career?

2. How has Nathaniel Lowe fared against Kyle Leahy in their career?

3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Nathaniel Lowe in their career?

4. What are Chris Paddack's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Jordan Walker's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Great American Ball Park in 2025?