NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 29-19 | - | L3 |
| Brewers | 27-18 | 0.5 | W1 |
| Cardinals | 27-19 | 1.0 | L1 |
| Pirates | 24-23 | 4.5 | L3 |
| Reds | 24-24 | 5.0 | L3 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17 | KC | Home | L 0-2 |
| May 16 | KC | Home | W 4-2 |
| May 15 | KC | Home | W 5-4 (11) |
| May 14 | OAK | Away | W 5-4 |
| May 13 | OAK | Away | L 2-6 |
| May 12 | OAK | Away | W 6-4 |
| May 10 | SD | Away | L 2-3 (10) |
| May 9 | SD | Away | L 2-4 |
| May 8 | SD | Away | W 6-0 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Matthew Liberatore (L) -- Cardinals
2026 to date: 2-2, 4.40 ERA, 1.51 WHIP across 9 starts and 47.0 IP. 34 K, 18 BB (16.7 K%, 8.9 BB%), 9 HR allowed, 39.8% ground-ball rate. 2025 baseline: 3.05 K/BB on 151.2 IP with 18.8 K% and 6.2 BB%. Series opener at home.
Mitch Keller (R) -- Pirates
2026 to date: 4-2, 3.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP across 9 starts and 52.2 IP. 38 K, 15 BB (18.1 K%, 7.1 BB%), 3 HR allowed, 44.7% GB. 2025 baseline: 2.94 K/BB on 176.1 IP with 20.0 K% and 6.8 BB%. The Pittsburgh rotation anchor walking into Busch with the K/BB edge on paper.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-05-17)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .290 | .784 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .242 | .759 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .339 | .889 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .283 | .938 |
| 5 | Gorman | 3B | L | .234 | .678 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .200 | .575 |
| 7 | Church | CF | L | .222 | .540 |
| 8 | Saggese | LF | R | .158 | .411 |
| 9 | Pagés | C | R | .138 | .429 |
Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).
Pirates (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Cook | RF | R |
| Lowe | 2B | L |
| Reynolds | LF | S |
| Rodríguez | C | S |
| Davis | C | R |
| Mangum | LF | S |
| Triolo | SS | R |
| Griffin | SS | R |
| Ozuna | DH | R |
| Gonzales | 3B | R |
| Yorke | 3B | R |
| Cruz | CF | L |
| Horwitz | 1B | L |
Handedness: 7 RHB (Cook, Davis, Triolo, Griffin, Ozuna, Gonzales, Yorke), 3 LHB (Lowe, Cruz, Horwitz).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster moves logged in tonight's data feed. The active rosters above are the source of truth for availability.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Gorman | 28 | 25 | 6 | .240 | .321 | .640 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| Masyn Winn | 24 | 23 | 6 | .261 | .292 | .478 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Alec Burleson | 25 | 23 | 6 | .261 | .320 | .478 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Pedro Pagés | 15 | 15 | 4 | .267 | .267 | .267 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jordan Walker | 11 | 11 | 2 | .182 | .182 | .182 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Thomas Saggese | 8 | 8 | 1 | .125 | .125 | .125 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Ivan Herrera | 3 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .667 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Thomas Saggese (8 PA), Ivan Herrera (3 PA).
Gorman is the lineup's BvP anchor: 28 PA at .240/.321/.640 with 3 HR and 8 K -- the power has shown up against Keller over a non-trivial sample, even with the strikeouts. Winn (24 PA, .261/.292/.478) and Burleson (25 PA, .261/.320/.478, 1 HR) carry the next-largest looks at near-identical AVG. Pagés is 4-for-15 (.267) with no extra-base hit. Walker (.182 in 11 PA, 5 K) and Saggese (.125 in 8 PA, 3 K) are the bottom-of-the-order outs in this matchup. Herrera's 3 PA (.500/.667/.500) is too small to weight.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Keller -- Wetherholt, Church, Scott, Fermín, Prieto, and Pozo carry no recorded plate appearances against him.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 12 | 12 | 4 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Oneil Cruz | 13 | 11 | 1 | .091 | .231 | .182 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jared Triolo | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Endy Rodríguez | 3 | 3 | 2 | .667 | .667 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Gonzales | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Lowe | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Henry Davis | 3 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Billy Cook | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Marcell Ozuna (4 PA), Jared Triolo (3 PA), Endy Rodríguez (3 PA), Nick Gonzales (3 PA), Brandon Lowe (2 PA), Henry Davis (3 PA), Billy Cook (1 PA), Spencer Horwitz (1 PA).
Reynolds is the standout BvP profile -- 12 PA at .333/.333/.667 with a HR and 3 K is the deepest sample on the table and the longest track record of damage against Liberatore. Cruz is the counter: 1-for-11 (.091/.231/.182) with 3 K and 2 BB in 13 PA -- Liberatore has neutralized him. Ozuna's 1-for-4 with a double is the only other 4+ PA sample. The hot small samples -- Rodríguez 2-for-3 (.667/.667/1.000), Gonzales 1-for-3 with a 2B (.333/.333/.667), Cook 1-for-1 with a HR, Horwitz 1-for-1 -- are all under 4 PA and signal-thin. Triolo (0-for-3), Lowe (0-for-2 with 2 K), and Davis (0-for-2 with a BB) are the unproductive smalls.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 276 | .225 | .264 | .364 | 9 | 12 | 72 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 227 | .254 | .305 | .340 | 1 | 15 | 63 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
Against Keller (R), the 2025 vs-RHP profile sets expectations: Burleson leads the slate at .296/.353/.478 (419 PA), Herrera at .268/.343/.399, Winn at .251/.309/.368. The cost of the right-leaning order is Walker (.200/.263/.291 vs RHP) and Gorman (.201/.294/.349) -- both well below average even against same-hand pitching they should profile better against, though Gorman's 9 HR in 309 PA keeps the power threat in play. Church's 51 PA at .114/.216/.182 is the lineup's deepest platoon disadvantage; he carries no pull-side production against right-handed pitching.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds B | 167 | .257 | .335 | .439 | 6 | 18 | 49 |
| Brandon Lowe L | 147 | .194 | .231 | .317 | 5 | 5 | 45 |
| Marcell Ozuna R | 141 | .220 | .383 | .349 | 3 | 30 | 33 |
| Jake Mangum B | 137 | .279 | .309 | .341 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| Oneil Cruz L | 125 | .102 | .224 | .176 | 1 | 16 | 44 |
| Jared Triolo R | 122 | .275 | .339 | .459 | 3 | 10 | 21 |
| Nick Gonzales R | 99 | .242 | .303 | .385 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| Henry Davis R | 62 | .140 | .210 | .298 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| Spencer Horwitz L | 51 | .186 | .314 | .279 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| Nick Yorke R | 25 | .333 | .360 | .417 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Endy Rodríguez B | 12 | .273 | .333 | .364 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Billy Cook R | 4 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Liberatore (L) faces a Pittsburgh group whose 2025 vs-LHP profile is uneven. Reynolds (.257/.335/.439, 167 PA) and Triolo (.275/.339/.459, 122 PA) are the established threats against left-handed pitching. Mangum's .279/.309/.341 and Gonzales's .242/.303/.385 round out the workable bats. The Liberatore exploits are Cruz (.102/.224/.176 vs LHP in 125 PA -- the platoon hole), Lowe (.194/.231/.317), Davis (.140/.210/.298), and Horwitz (.186/.314/.279). The Pittsburgh lineup carries 3 LHB (Lowe, Cruz, Horwitz) and 3 SHB (Reynolds, Rodríguez, Mangum) -- the same-hand pressure points on Liberatore are Cruz and Horwitz, both of whom carry sub-.230 vs-LHP profiles.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | vs LHB | 376 | .270 | .338 | .452 | .790 | 13 | 69 |
| Mitch Keller | vs RHB | 373 | .229 | .282 | .359 | .641 | 8 | 81 |
| Matthew Liberatore | vs RHB | 515 | .265 | .304 | .426 | .730 | 16 | 93 |
| Matthew Liberatore | vs LHB | 133 | .274 | .348 | .410 | .758 | 3 | 29 |
Keller's 2025 vs-RHB profile is the strong side (.229/.282/.359, .641 OPS, 8 HR in 373 PA), while LHB tag him for a .790 OPS with 13 HR in 376 PA. The Cardinals' 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church) carry the platoon lever, and Burleson's .296 vs-RHP line is the cleanest pressure point. Liberatore is essentially platoon-neutral on rate (.730 OPS vs RHB, .758 vs LHB) but the HR distribution skews heavily against RHB (16 vs 3) -- the Pittsburgh RHB-heavy active roster (7 RHB / 3 LHB / 3 SHB) reaches Liberatore's larger-sample side.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | Away | 337 | 80.2 | 3.90 | 74 | 25 | 10 |
| Mitch Keller | Home | 412 | 95.2 | 3.95 | 76 | 26 | 11 |
| Matthew Liberatore | Away | 334 | 76.0 | 4.03 | 59 | 26 | 11 |
| Matthew Liberatore | Home | 314 | 75.2 | 3.69 | 63 | 14 | 8 |
Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium -- Liberatore is pitching at home, where his career ERA sits at 3.69 over 75.2 IP versus 4.03 on the road. The home/road BB split is sharper: 14 BB at home, 26 BB on the road. Keller is on the road, but his career home/away profile is essentially flat (3.95 home / 3.90 away). The venue itself does not hand Pittsburgh a context advantage; Liberatore gets the slight home edge.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | TTO1 | 289 | .226 | .347 | .638 | 4 | 57 | 22 |
| Mitch Keller | TTO2 | 284 | .254 | .413 | .719 | 10 | 67 | 17 |
| Mitch Keller | TTO3 | 176 | .280 | .490 | .839 | 7 | 26 | 12 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO1 | 264 | .237 | .376 | .657 | 8 | 56 | 15 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO2 | 252 | .310 | .511 | .871 | 9 | 40 | 17 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO3 | 132 | .244 | .353 | .641 | 2 | 26 | 8 |
Liberatore's 2025 second pass through the order is the season-long cliff: .310 AVG / .511 SLG / .871 OPS across 252 PA. Innings 4-6 are where damage piles up; the third pass (.244 AVG, .641 OPS) reads better mostly because the bullpen tends to take over. Keller's pattern is the opposite of a workhorse profile -- his first pass is his strongest (.638 OPS), his second pass climbs to .719, and his third pass breaks down to .280 AVG / .490 SLG / .839 OPS on 176 PA. If the Cardinals stretch Keller into a third look, the late innings are where his line breaks.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate sits in the ~68-72% range, which makes the Cardinals' bullpen a clear two-tier sort. Romero (88.5% on 26 IR) and McGreevy (100% on 3, small sample) are the assured-hands options when traffic is already on. Svanson (50.0% on 26) and Graceffo (54.5% on 11) are the volatile arms, both below league average with non-trivial samples. Leahy at 62.1% (29 IR) is the largest sample on the table and lands just under average. The middle-innings fork tonight is Romero vs Svanson if Liberatore leaves runners on through the TTO2 window.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 517 | 45.5% | 29.4% | 24.8% |
| Matthew Liberatore | 463 | 39.1% | 31.3% | 27.6% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- PIT
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Cook | .000 | -- | .667 |
| Oneil Cruz | .240 | .590 | .043 |
| Henry Davis | .220 | .526 | .028 |
| Nick Gonzales | .283 | .584 | .099 |
| Spencer Horwitz | .241 | .671 | .109 |
| Brandon Lowe | .225 | .678 | .071 |
| Jake Mangum | .344 | .557 | .086 |
| Marcell Ozuna | .184 | .658 | .152 |
| Bryan Reynolds | .213 | .600 | .198 |
| Endy Rodríguez | .154 | .556 | .125 |
| Jared Triolo | .238 | .571 | .087 |
| Nick Yorke | .276 | .600 | .071 |
Liberatore is a moderate-GB starter (39.1% career on 463 BIP) facing a Pirates group that mostly puts the ball on the ground in 2025 -- Mangum 62.0 GB%, Yorke 54.7%, Cruz 52.7%, Reynolds 49.5%, Jensen-style profiles. Mangum's .344 career grounder AVG is the bat that hurts him most on the ground. The flip side is Davis (42.6 FB%) and Rodríguez (42.1 FB%), the two air-friendly bats with bottom-tier grounder AVGs (.220 and .154) -- if either is in the lineup, they hit air or they're out. Keller's 45.5% career GB rate runs into a Cardinals group with Herrera (52.6 GB%) and Church (67.6 GB%) on the grounder-heavy end; Gorman's 2025 30.2 GB% / 41.7 FB% is the lineup's most air-friendly bat against him.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 15 | 75.2 | 3.93 | .279 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 12 | 63.2 | 4.10 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 11.0 | 2.45 | .225 | -- | -- |
Tonight's catcher is Pedro Pagés -- the most-paired battery option with Liberatore (15 G, 75.2 IP, 3.93 ERA, .279 AVG against) and the established starter behind him. Pozo backs him up with the next-deepest sample (12 G, 63.2 IP, 4.10 ERA, .259). Jimmy Crooks's 2 G / 11.0 IP at 2.45 ERA is the strongest line on the table by rate, but Crooks is NOT on the Cardinals active roster per `rosters.cardinals.players` -- that row is reference context only and not a battery option tonight. The Pagés-Liberatore pairing is the cleanest game-plan baseline.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Oneil Cruz: 38 SB / 5 CS at 88.4% -- the engine of the Pittsburgh running game and the bat most likely to turn first into second if Pagés's pop time wavers or Liberatore's hold-the-runner mechanics slip.
Jake Mangum: 27 SB / 6 CS at 81.8% -- the secondary threat with high success rate and high volume.
Jared Triolo: 13 SB / 2 CS at 86.7% -- elite efficiency on a smaller attempt count.
Brandon Lowe: 3 SB / 2 CS at 60% -- low volume, average efficiency. Bryan Reynolds: 3 SB / 2 CS at 60%. Henry Davis: 2 SB / 1 CS at 66.7%. Nick Yorke: 1 SB / 0 CS at 100% (1 attempt). Background runners.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Tonight's alignment leans on the Cardinals' best defensive samples: Winn (SS, .994 Fld%, 64 DP), Pagés (C, .994), Walker (RF, .981) anchor the right side and middle. Burleson at 1B carries the strongest first-base sample on the team (.990, 27 DP). Saggese is starting in LF tonight, but his career fielding sample is at 2B (.973, 35 G), SS (.988, 33 G), and 3B (.939, 18 G) -- no left-field reps in this table, so LF range judgment is new context. Gorman at 3B (54 G, 6 E, .950) is the routine error candidate when Liberatore's grounders find the line.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Busch Stadium: Plays historically as a pitcher-leaning venue -- typically dampens fly-ball power and rewards contact pitching, which neutralizes some of the air-friendly profiles on both rosters.
Head-to-head recent seasons: 2025 STL 6-7, 2024 STL 8-5, 2023 STL 4-9, 2022 STL 13-6. The Pirates took the season ledger in 2025 and 2023; the Cardinals took 2024 and dominated 2022. Overall, an even split across the four-year window.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
Burleson is the lineup's bat-to-ball anchor (2025 14.5 K% / 7.2 BB%), with Winn (19.0/6.3) and Herrera (18.7/9.6) the next-cleanest profiles. The strikeout liabilities cluster at the heart and bottom: Gorman 33.8 K%, Walker 31.8 K%, Saggese 28.1 K%, Church 27.7 K%, Pagés 27.5 K% -- five regulars above the 25% high-K threshold, with Pagés (4.9 BB%) and Church (4.6 BB%) also below the 6% low-BB threshold. Keller's 20.0 K% in 2025 has bottom-of-the-order whiff potential to feed on.
Pirates
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 654 | 173 | 26.5% | 57 | 8.7% |
| Marcell Ozuna | 591 | 144 | 24.4% | 94 | 15.9% |
| Brandon Lowe | 553 | 149 | 26.9% | 38 | 6.9% |
| Oneil Cruz | 544 | 174 | 32.0% | 64 | 11.8% |
| Jake Mangum | 428 | 64 | 15.0% | 19 | 4.4% |
| Spencer Horwitz | 411 | 73 | 17.8% | 44 | 10.7% |
| Nick Gonzales | 408 | 73 | 17.9% | 21 | 5.1% |
| Jared Triolo | 376 | 76 | 20.2% | 39 | 10.4% |
| Henry Davis | 281 | 76 | 27.0% | 18 | 6.4% |
| Nick Yorke | 72 | 15 | 20.8% | 3 | 4.2% |
| Endy Rodríguez | 57 | 14 | 24.6% | 5 | 8.8% |
| Billy Cook | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0% |
The Pirates lineup is K-heavy at the top: Cruz 32.0 K%, Lowe 26.9, Reynolds 26.5, Davis 27.0 -- four bats well above the 25% threshold and the cleanest swing-and-miss targets for Liberatore. Ozuna's 24.4/15.9 split is the anomaly -- below the K threshold and a top-of-the-league BB%, the most patient at-bat in the order. Mangum (15.0 K% / 4.4 BB%) is the contact-first hitter who keeps the ball in play and rarely walks. Liberatore's 2025 18.8 K% is modest but the lineup volunteers more whiffs than it forces him to chase.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Against Keller's 45.5% career GB rate, the Cardinals' fly-ball profiles are the lever. Gorman's 2025 30.2 GB% / 41.7 FB% is the lineup's most air-friendly bat -- and the bat with 3 HR in 28 BvP PA against Keller. Burleson (42.0/33.4) and Winn (39.6/34.0) carry the next-best fly profiles. Herrera (52.6 GB%) and Church (67.6 GB%) run into Keller's strength -- two of the lineup's heaviest grounder bats meeting a moderate-GB pitcher means routine middle-infield work for the Pittsburgh defense.
Pirates
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 398 | 49.5% | 21.6% | 28.9% |
| Jake Mangum | 337 | 62.0% | 17.2% | 20.8% |
| Brandon Lowe | 327 | 42.2% | 30.3% | 27.5% |
| Marcell Ozuna | 322 | 43.8% | 32.6% | 23.6% |
| Nick Gonzales | 303 | 47.9% | 26.7% | 25.4% |
| Spencer Horwitz | 280 | 40.0% | 32.9% | 27.1% |
| Oneil Cruz | 277 | 52.7% | 25.3% | 22.0% |
| Jared Triolo | 244 | 41.4% | 32.8% | 25.8% |
| Henry Davis | 169 | 34.9% | 42.6% | 22.5% |
| Nick Yorke | 53 | 54.7% | 26.4% | 18.9% |
| Endy Rodríguez | 38 | 34.2% | 42.1% | 23.7% |
| Billy Cook | 5 | 40.0% | 60.0% | 0.0% |
Liberatore's 39.1% career GB rate runs into a Pittsburgh group built mostly on the ground in 2025: Mangum 62.0 GB%, Yorke 54.7, Cruz 52.7, Reynolds 49.5, Gonzales 47.9, Ozuna 43.8. The two air bats that can punish him if elevated are Davis (42.6 FB%) and Rodríguez (42.1 FB%) -- both with sub-.230 grounder AVGs, so when they put it in the air it's the at-bat that matters. Cook's 60.0 FB% sits on only 5 BIP -- not a meaningful read. The lineup's primary path is grounders through the middle infield, where Winn anchors at SS.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 176.1 | 150 | 20.0% | 51 | 6.8% | 2.94 |
| Matthew Liberatore | 151.2 | 122 | 18.8% | 40 | 6.2% | 3.05 |
Liberatore owns the narrow 2025 K/BB edge (3.05) over Keller (2.94). Keller leads on raw K% (20.0 vs 18.8) and trails on BB% (6.8 vs 6.2). The 2026-to-date splits run higher walks on both: 2026 to date Liberatore is 16.7 K% / 8.9 BB% across 47.0 IP; Keller is 18.1 K% / 7.1 BB% in 52.2 IP. 2025 baseline is the heavier read; Liberatore's 2026 walk rate is the variable to watch.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Liberatore vs Reynolds. Reynolds is .333/.333/.667 with a HR in 12 career PA against Liberatore -- the deepest opponent BvP sample on the table and the longest-track-record threat in the order. His 2025 vs-LHP line is .257/.335/.439 across 167 PA, so the platoon profile reinforces the BvP signal.
Gorman vs Keller. 28 PA, .240/.321/.640 with 3 HR and 8 K -- the only Cardinals bat that has consistently put Keller's mistakes in the seats. Gorman's 2025 41.7 FB% is the lineup's most air-friendly profile, and Keller's vs-LHB profile (.452 SLG, 13 HR in 376 PA) is the soft side of his platoon split.
Burleson vs Keller. 25 PA, .261/.320/.478 with a HR in BvP, and a 2025 .296/.353/.478 vs RHP. Burleson is the lineup's cleanest at-bat against right-handed pitching and the bat that benefits most from Keller's vs-LHB weakness.
Liberatore's middle innings. 2025 TTO2 line .310/.511/.871 across 252 PA -- the season-long second-pass cliff. The Pittsburgh top of the order (Reynolds .257/.335/.439 vs LHP, Triolo .275/.339/.459, Mangum .279/.309/.341) gets its second look in the 4th-6th frame, and the bullpen fork (Romero 88.5% strand on 26 IR vs Svanson 50.0% on 26) decides what happens with traffic.
X-factor: Cruz on the bases. 38 SB at 88.4% in 2025 -- elite both ways. If Cruz reaches off Liberatore's slower delivery, second base is in play immediately, and Pagés's pop time and Liberatore's hold-the-runner mechanics get tested. Mangum (27 SB at 81.8%) is the second wave. The Pittsburgh running game is the live variable tonight.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Mitch Keller in their career?
2. How has Matthew Liberatore fared against Bryan Reynolds in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Oneil Cruz in their career?
4. What are Matthew Liberatore's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Bryan Reynolds's splits vs LHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025