NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 29-16 | - | W2 |
| Brewers | 25-17 | 2.5 | W2 |
| Cardinals | 26-18 | 2.5 | W2 |
| Pirates | 24-21 | 5.0 | L1 |
| Reds | 24-21 | 5.0 | W2 |
AL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | 24-22 | - | L1 |
| Sox | 22-22 | 1.0 | L1 |
| Twins | 20-25 | 3.5 | L1 |
| Tigers | 20-25 | 3.5 | W1 |
| Royals | 19-26 | 4.5 | L5 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7 | MIL | Home | L 0-0 |
| May 15 | KC | Home | W 5-4 (11) |
| May 14 | OAK | Away | W 5-4 |
| May 13 | OAK | Away | L 2-6 |
| May 12 | OAK | Away | W 6-4 |
| May 10 | SD | Away | L 2-3 (10) |
| May 9 | SD | Away | L 2-4 |
| May 8 | SD | Away | W 6-0 |
| May 7 | SD | Away | W 2-1 |
| May 6 | MIL | Home | L 2-6 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Kyle Leahy (R) -- Cardinals
2026 to date: 4-3, 4.31 ERA, 1.59 WHIP across 8 starts (39.2 IP). 32 K / 17 BB. 17.8% K%, 9.4% BB%, 60.5% GB%, 6 HR allowed. 2025 baseline: 88.0 IP, 22.0% K%, 7.7% BB%, 2.86 K/BB. The 2026 ground-ball rate is way up from the historical profile (44.2% career GB%), but the walks are also up versus the 2025 baseline. He carries the strong home/away tilt of the matchup: 2025 home ERA 4.47 (44.1 IP) vs 2.68 on the road (43.2 IP) -- and today he is at Busch.
Noah Cameron (L) -- Royals
2026 to date: 2-2, 5.55 ERA, 1.63 WHIP across 7 starts (35.2 IP). 32 K / 14 BB. 19.5% K%, 8.5% BB%, 36.5% GB%, 5 HR allowed. 2025 baseline: 138.1 IP, 20.5% K%, 7.7% BB%, 2.65 K/BB. The 2026 ERA is well above his 2025 home/away ERAs (2.55 / 2.66) -- he has been the harder hit pitcher of the two so far this season. He dominated lefties in 2025 (.161 / .224 / .339 / .563 OPS vs LHB in 135 PA, 5 HR) and was solid vs RHB (.231 / .297 / .369 / .666 OPS in 421 PA, 13 HR).
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-05-15)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .290 | .784 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .242 | .746 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .327 | .876 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .275 | .936 |
| 5 | Gorman | 3B | L | .234 | .678 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .200 | .581 |
| 7 | Church | CF | L | .231 | .560 |
| 8 | Saggese | LF | R | .158 | .411 |
| 9 | Pagés | C | R | .143 | .444 |
Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).
Royals (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Witt | SS | R |
| Jensen | C | L |
| Díaz | C | R |
| Collins | LF | S |
| Caglianone | RF | L |
| Isbel | CF | L |
| Thomas | CF | R |
| Garcia | 3B | R |
| Massey | 2B | L |
| Loftin | 2B | R |
| Perez | C | R |
| Marte | RF | R |
| Pasquantino | 1B | L |
Handedness: 7 RHB (Witt, Díaz, Thomas, Garcia, Loftin, Perez, Marte), 5 LHB (Jensen, Caglianone, Isbel, Massey, Pasquantino).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
Phase 2 did not run an external injury or storyline search for this game. The Cardinals lineup is projected from 2026-05-15 (yesterday's batting order); the Royals lineup is from an active-roster pool of 13 position players, so today's batting order is unknown until first pitch.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | 6 | 6 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pedro Pagés | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Herrera | 4 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .500 | .333 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 2.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Burleson | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Masyn Winn (6 PA), Pedro Pagés (4 PA), Ivan Herrera (4 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), Alec Burleson (2 PA).
Every Cardinals BvP cell against Cameron is under the 10-PA small-sample threshold. Walker's 2 PA, .500 / .500 / 2.000 with 1 HR and Herrera's 4 PA, .333 / .500 / .333 with 1 BB and zero strikeouts are the eye-catching lines, but neither is large enough to anchor on. Winn's 0-for-6 with 2 K is the only cell with even six PA, and it does not say much against a starter with 138.1 IP of historical sample. Wetherholt, Gorman, Saggese, and Church have no career history against Cameron at all.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Cameron -- Pozo, Scott, Fermin, and Prieto are absent from the BvP table.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Collins | 3 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Salvador Perez | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby Witt | 3 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Michael Massey | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jac Caglianone | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Loftin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Starling Marte | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Isbel | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elias Diaz | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lane Thomas | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- | 1.000 | -- | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Small sample: Maikel Garcia (3 PA), Vinnie Pasquantino (2 PA), Isaac Collins (3 PA), Salvador Perez (2 PA), Bobby Witt (3 PA), Michael Massey (1 PA), Jac Caglianone (1 PA), Nick Loftin (1 PA), Starling Marte (1 PA), Kyle Isbel (1 PA), Elias Diaz (1 PA), Lane Thomas (1 PA).
Every Royals BvP cell against Leahy is under the 10-PA small-sample threshold. The biggest sample is 3 PA each for Garcia, Collins, and Witt -- not enough to anchor a read. Pasquantino's 1-for-2 with a single is the largest hit; Witt has walked once and struck out once in his three trips. Leahy's history against this lineup is essentially blank because his career has been a swing pitcher and reliever -- the 8 starts in 2026 are the bulk of his starting-pitcher resume.
Bench note: No additional bench BvP history beyond the roster-pool rows above. Pasquantino and Marte are the only batters on this card with multi-PA samples against Leahy.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn R | 163 | .255 | .313 | .349 | 2 | 11 | 31 |
| Alec Burleson L | 127 | .271 | .310 | .398 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 124 | .330 | .455 | .660 | 9 | 19 | 18 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 113 | .243 | .292 | .359 | 2 | 7 | 35 |
| Jordan Walker R | 107 | .255 | .318 | .347 | 2 | 8 | 32 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 93 | .220 | .301 | .439 | 5 | 10 | 25 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 68 | .273 | .279 | .348 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| Nathan Church L | 14 | .417 | .417 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Cameron is left-handed, so the 2025 vs-LHP table above is the matchup read. Herrera is the standout -- .330 / .455 / .660 in 124 PA with 9 HR is a top-of-the-card line on either side of the platoon. The other RHB (Winn, Walker, Pagés, Saggese) sit around .243 to .273 -- pedestrian but not soft. Burleson and Gorman, the two regular LHB starters, are .271 and .220 against lefties, with Gorman's .439 SLG carrying the only power note among them. Church's .417 in 14 PA is too small to anchor on.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt R | 543 | .287 | .341 | .506 | 22 | 36 | 95 |
| Maikel Garcia R | 531 | .278 | .338 | .431 | 13 | 45 | 64 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino L | 518 | .281 | .346 | .511 | 26 | 41 | 68 |
| Salvador Perez R | 497 | .243 | .291 | .486 | 28 | 22 | 96 |
| Kyle Isbel L | 334 | .263 | .302 | .375 | 4 | 18 | 54 |
| Isaac Collins B | 304 | .272 | .382 | .402 | 5 | 44 | 68 |
| Michael Massey L | 228 | .247 | .272 | .321 | 3 | 8 | 34 |
| Elias Diaz R | 196 | .206 | .280 | .349 | 6 | 16 | 55 |
| Starling Marte R | 182 | .275 | .343 | .412 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| Jac Caglianone L | 165 | .148 | .230 | .262 | 4 | 14 | 37 |
| Nick Loftin R | 120 | .215 | .277 | .374 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| Lane Thomas R | 95 | .165 | .242 | .259 | 2 | 8 | 32 |
| Carter Jensen L | 55 | .333 | .418 | .646 | 3 | 7 | 12 |
Leahy is right-handed, so the 2025 vs-RHP table above is the matchup read for the Royals. Witt, Garcia, Pasquantino, and Perez form a four-bat core that all sit at or above .278 AVG with .338+ OBPs and .431+ SLGs -- the top of any Royals lineup card. Jensen's .333 / .418 / .646 in 55 PA is the small-sample tag-along that could climb into the order today. The platoon weakness is Caglianone (.148 / .230 / .262 vs RHP) and Thomas (.165 / .242 / .259) -- two of the bats Leahy can attack if they hit the order against him.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron | vs RHB | 421 | .231 | .297 | .369 | .666 | 13 | 87 |
| Noah Cameron | vs LHB | 135 | .161 | .224 | .339 | .563 | 5 | 27 |
| Kyle Leahy | vs LHB | 163 | .252 | .337 | .364 | .701 | 3 | 37 |
| Kyle Leahy | vs RHB | 200 | .238 | .270 | .319 | .589 | 2 | 43 |
Mirror-image platoon profiles. Cameron crushes lefties (2025 vs LHB: .161 / .224 / .563 OPS in 135 PA) and is solid vs RHB (.666 OPS in 421 PA). Leahy holds RHB to a .589 OPS (200 PA) and is more vulnerable to LHB (.701 OPS in 163 PA, .337 OBP -- the 9.4% 2026 BB% lives in this split). Cameron faces a 5-RHB pocket (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés) so his weaker split is the larger share of his afternoon; Leahy faces 5 LHB in the Royals pool (Jensen, Caglianone, Isbel, Massey, Pasquantino) -- the same friction direction.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron | Away | 284 | 70.2 | 2.55 | 54 | 20 | 8 |
| Noah Cameron | Home | 272 | 67.2 | 2.66 | 60 | 23 | 10 |
| Kyle Leahy | Away | 173 | 43.2 | 2.68 | 46 | 13 | 2 |
| Kyle Leahy | Home | 190 | 44.1 | 4.47 | 34 | 15 | 3 |
Today's game is at Busch -- Cameron pitching away, Leahy pitching home. Cameron's 2025 home/away ERAs are tightly clustered (2.55 / 2.66) so the venue is not a meaningful swing for him historically. Leahy is the home/away story on this card: 2025 home ERA 4.47 (44.1 IP) versus 2.68 on the road (43.2 IP) -- nearly two earned runs of separation, road clearly the stronger context. Busch is his weaker venue per the 2025 sample.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron | TTO1 | 217 | .209 | .423 | .705 | 11 | 51 | 18 |
| Noah Cameron | TTO2 | 216 | .233 | .356 | .638 | 6 | 45 | 13 |
| Noah Cameron | TTO3 | 123 | .189 | .261 | .529 | 1 | 18 | 12 |
| Kyle Leahy | TTO1 | 355 | .247 | .341 | .645 | 5 | 76 | 28 |
| Kyle Leahy | TTO2 | 8 | .125 | .250 | .375 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Cameron's 2025 TTO line reads in reverse -- his first pass through the order is his weakest bucket (217 PA, .209 / .423 SLG / .705 OPS, 11 HR), his second pass tightens (.638 OPS), and his third pass is his strongest (123 PA, .189 / .261 SLG / .529 OPS, only 1 HR). The first pass through the order is the Cardinals' window today; the longer he sees a hitter the better he gets. Leahy's TTO sample is bullpen-shaped: 355 PA at TTO1 (.247 / .341 SLG / .645 OPS) and only 8 PA at the second pass through the order -- the second-look read is effectively unknown going into his ninth start of 2026.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero's 88.5% strand on 26 IR is the cleanest hammer in the pen and well above league average -- the lefty bridge if a Pasquantino / Caglianone / Massey / Isbel / Jensen pocket gets dangerous. Svanson's 50.0% and Graceffo's 54.5% are the high-leverage doors to avoid; both sit well below average. Leahy's own 62.1% strand is in the table because he has worked relief earlier in 2026 -- not relevant to his start today but useful if he pivots to long relief later in the series.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron | 378 | 43.1% | 32.3% | 23.3% |
| Kyle Leahy | 249 | 44.2% | 26.9% | 27.7% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- KC
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jac Caglianone | .163 | .333 | .029 |
| Isaac Collins | .267 | .667 | .090 |
| Elias Diaz | .292 | .583 | .042 |
| Maikel Garcia | .278 | .577 | .078 |
| Kyle Isbel | .248 | .603 | .115 |
| Carter Jensen | .227 | .625 | .000 |
| Nick Loftin | .161 | .588 | .043 |
| Starling Marte | .245 | .667 | .132 |
| Michael Massey | .309 | .556 | .098 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | .223 | .603 | .086 |
| Salvador Perez | .127 | .630 | .131 |
| Lane Thomas | .267 | .538 | .029 |
| Bobby Witt | .342 | .659 | .087 |
Both starters are ground-ball leaners by their career profiles -- Cameron 43.1% GB / 32.3% FB / 23.3% LD (378 BIP), Leahy 44.2% / 26.9% / 27.7% (249 BIP). Witt's career .342 GB AVG is the most worrying contact profile against Leahy's ground-ball lean -- he turns grounders into hits at an outlier rate. Pasquantino's .603 LD AVG with a .223 GB AVG argues he is a line-drive bat first; Garcia (.577 LD AVG, .278 GB AVG) is similar. Perez's .127 GB AVG is the contact hole Leahy can attack with sinkers down. The KC lineup is line-drive / ground-ball heavy in the aggregate, which lines up against Leahy's pitch profile but raises BABIP volatility.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 43 | 62.0 | 3.05 | .225 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 13 | 16.0 | 2.25 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 4 | 6.1 | 8.53 | .346 | -- | -- |
| Ivan Herrera | 4 | 3.0 | 6.00 | .308 | -- | -- |
Pedro Pagés is the scheduled catcher today, batting 9th -- on the active roster and the primary battery for Leahy by IP. His 62.0 IP / 3.05 ERA / .225 AVG paired with Leahy is the cleanest catcher line on the card. Pozo is on the active roster as the backup with a 16.0 IP / 2.25 ERA pairing. Jimmy Crooks is NOT on the current active roster (the 4 G / 6.1 IP / 8.53 ERA row reflects a prior pairing in 2025), and Herrera's 4 G / 3.0 IP / 6.00 ERA sample is the emergency-catcher case -- he is the DH today, not behind the plate. The Pagés-Leahy battery is the established one and the pop-time / sequencing is calibrated.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Witt 38 SB / 9 CS, 80.9% in 2025 -- the headline runner on either side of this card. Garcia 23 / 9, 71.9%. Collins 16 / 7, 69.6%. Marte 7 / 2, 77.8%. Thomas 4 / 1, 80.0%. Isbel 4 / 5, 44.4% -- below the break-even line. Massey 2 / 1, 66.7%. Loftin 1 / 1, 50.0%. Caglianone and Pasquantino each 1 / 0 (tiny samples).
Witt is the live theft threat at the top. Garcia and Collins extend the pressure if either reaches against Leahy's 9.4% 2026 BB%. The Pagés battery is established (62.0 IP with Leahy), so pop-time calibration is not the variable -- raw speed is. The Royals' running game is the leverage point if Leahy's walks come early.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Winn at SS (.994 in 129 G) and Pagés at C (.994 in 110 G) anchor the strong side of the alignment. Walker at RF (.981 in 108 G) and Burleson at 1B (.990 in 50 G) round out the lineup-matched defenders. Wetherholt is starting at 2B but has no entry in the 2025 defense table at any position -- a rookie/no-sample alignment risk. Saggese is projected in LF but his 2025 fielding sample is entirely at 2B (35 G), SS (33 G), and 3B (18 G), with no left-field reps on record -- the other alignment-risk variable in the outfield. Church at CF (.989 in 18 G) and Gorman at 3B (.950 in 54 G) complete the projected glove card.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Busch Stadium has historically played as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue. The JSON does not carry a numeric park factor for today.
Recent head-to-head: 3-3 in 2025, 1-3 in 2024 (Royals' favor), 2-2 in 2023, 3-1 in 2022 (Cardinals). The 2022-2025 series have stayed close. STL won 5-4 in 11 innings yesterday to take Game 1 of this 3-game set.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
Burleson (14.5% 2025 K%) and Herrera (18.7% K%, 9.6% BB%) anchor the contact-first top of the order. Gorman (33.8% K%) and Walker (31.8% K%) are the strikeout-prone middle. Pagés (4.9% BB%), Saggese (5.4%), and Church (4.6%) round out the bottom of the order with the lowest 2025 walk rates on the card -- Cameron's first-pass FB / SLG vulnerability is the way to break them open.
Royals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt | 687 | 125 | 18.2% | 49 | 7.1% |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 682 | 107 | 15.7% | 49 | 7.2% |
| Maikel Garcia | 666 | 84 | 12.6% | 62 | 9.3% |
| Salvador Perez | 638 | 125 | 19.6% | 28 | 4.4% |
| Isaac Collins | 441 | 93 | 21.1% | 57 | 12.9% |
| Kyle Isbel | 409 | 74 | 18.1% | 23 | 5.6% |
| Starling Marte | 329 | 68 | 20.7% | 22 | 6.7% |
| Elias Diaz | 283 | 74 | 26.1% | 21 | 7.4% |
| Michael Massey | 277 | 43 | 15.5% | 9 | 3.2% |
| Jac Caglianone | 232 | 52 | 22.4% | 18 | 7.8% |
| Nick Loftin | 188 | 27 | 14.4% | 14 | 7.4% |
| Lane Thomas | 142 | 44 | 31.0% | 14 | 9.9% |
| Carter Jensen | 69 | 12 | 17.4% | 9 | 13.0% |
The Royals' core is contact-first. Garcia (12.6% 2025 K%), Loftin (14.4%), Pasquantino (15.7%), and Massey (15.5%) are all under 16% -- Leahy's 17.8% 2026 K% will not overwhelm them. Collins (12.9% BB%) and Jensen (13.0% BB%) are the walk-discipline names that punish the 9.4% Leahy walk rate. Thomas (31.0% K%) and Diaz (26.1% K%) are the strikeout pile if either is in the lineup.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Gorman is the standout fly-ball / power profile on the Cardinals' side (30.2% GB, 41.7% FB) -- the LHB best positioned to drive a Cameron mistake. Herrera puts the ball on the ground at a 52.6% clip, which fits more of a hits-through-the-shift contact path than a power one, but his .660 vs-LHP SLG says he turns mistakes into damage anyway. Church's 67.6% GB profile is the high-ground-ball outlier on a tiny 37 BIP sample.
Royals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia | 492 | 46.1% | 26.0% | 27.8% |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 481 | 41.0% | 33.9% | 25.2% |
| Bobby Witt | 477 | 39.8% | 33.8% | 26.4% |
| Salvador Perez | 442 | 37.6% | 38.0% | 24.4% |
| Kyle Isbel | 278 | 49.3% | 28.1% | 22.7% |
| Isaac Collins | 270 | 44.4% | 28.9% | 26.7% |
| Michael Massey | 214 | 31.8% | 43.0% | 25.2% |
| Starling Marte | 210 | 50.5% | 25.2% | 24.3% |
| Elias Diaz | 172 | 37.8% | 41.3% | 20.9% |
| Jac Caglianone | 151 | 53.0% | 23.2% | 23.8% |
| Nick Loftin | 137 | 40.9% | 34.3% | 24.8% |
| Lane Thomas | 77 | 39.0% | 44.2% | 16.9% |
| Carter Jensen | 45 | 48.9% | 15.6% | 35.6% |
Leahy's 44.2% career GB profile meets a Royals group with several ground-ball leaners: Caglianone 53.0%, Marte 50.5%, Isbel 49.3%, Collins 44.4%. That contact direction lines up with Leahy's pitch profile. The fly-ball pocket -- Thomas 44.2%, Massey 43.0%, Diaz 41.3%, Perez 38.0% -- is the HR-leakage risk; Leahy has allowed 6 HR in 39.2 IP in 2026. Jensen's 35.6% LD% on a 45 BIP sample is the line-drive outlier with the platoon edge against a righty.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron | 138.1 | 114 | 20.5% | 43 | 7.7% | 2.65 |
| Kyle Leahy | 88.0 | 80 | 22.0% | 28 | 7.7% | 2.86 |
Cameron 2026 to date: 19.5% K% / 8.5% BB%. 2025 baseline: 20.5% K% / 7.7% BB%, 2.65 K/BB. Leahy 2026 to date: 17.8% K% / 9.4% BB%. 2025 baseline: 22.0% K% / 7.7% BB%, 2.86 K/BB. Both pitchers' 2026 walk rates are above their 2025 baselines; Cameron's K rate is roughly in line, Leahy's has stepped back. The 5.55 / 4.31 2026 ERAs both reflect contact and walks running above the 2025 profile -- neither starter is in his peak form going into today.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Ivan Herrera vs Noah Cameron. The Cardinals' standout platoon bat against today's lefty. Herrera 2025 vs LHP: .330 / .455 / .660 in 124 PA, 9 HR -- the best LHP-killing line in the projected lineup. Career BvP: 4 PA, .333 / .500 / .333 with 1 BB and zero strikeouts (small).
Bobby Witt vs Kyle Leahy. The Royals' top threat. Career BvP: 3 PA, .000 / .333 with 1 BB and 1 K (small). 2025 vs RHP: .287 / .341 / .506 in 543 PA, 22 HR. Yesterday went 2-for-5 against May with the 10th-inning RBI double. Plus 38 SB / 9 CS (80.9%) on the bases.
Vinnie Pasquantino vs Kyle Leahy. The secondary LHB danger. Career BvP: 2 PA, .500 / .500 / .500 (tiny). 2025 vs RHP: .281 / .346 / .511 in 518 PA, 26 HR. Leahy's vs-LHB line (.701 OPS in 163 PA) is the weaker side of his profile; Pasquantino is the bat that punishes it.
Jordan Walker vs Noah Cameron. Career BvP: 2 PA, .500 / .500 / 2.000 with 1 HR (tiny). 2025 vs LHP: .255 / .318 / .347 in 107 PA -- modest. The BvP HR is the eye-catching line; the matchup case rests on Cameron's vs-RHB exposure (.666 OPS in 421 PA), not on the BvP sample.
Bullpen fork: Romero vs Svanson. Romero 88.5% 2025 strand on 26 IR. Svanson 50.0% on 26 IR. Whichever arm enters with runners on decides the middle innings -- and the lefty matchup (Pasquantino / Massey / Caglianone / Isbel / Jensen) tilts toward Romero by hand and by track record.
X-factor: Cameron's reverse-TTO profile (TTO1 .705 OPS, TTO2 .638, TTO3 .529). The Cardinals' damage window is innings 1-3, not innings 6-7. If they wait Cameron out the way teams normally wait out a starter, he tightens. The strategy must be the opposite: aggressive contact early.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Ivan Herrera performed against Noah Cameron in their career?
2. How has Kyle Leahy fared against Bobby Witt in their career?
3. How has Vinnie Pasquantino performed against JoJo Romero in their career?
4. What are Noah Cameron's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Ivan Herrera's splits vs LHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025