NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

AL CENTRAL STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Dustin May (R) -- Cardinals

2026 to date: 3-4, 4.85 ERA, 1.43 WHIP across 8 starts (42.2 IP). 32 K / 11 BB. 17.9% K%, 6.1% BB%, 47.0% GB%. 4 HR allowed. The 2026 walk rate is well under his 2025 baseline (9.6% BB%) but the ERA reflects HR damage and a tougher road slate. Tonight he is at Busch -- his 2025 home ERA was 3.24 (75.0 IP) vs 6.28 on the road, the cleanest home/road tilt in the table (Rule 33).

Michael Wacha (R) -- Royals

2026 to date: 4-2, 2.63 ERA, 0.99 WHIP across 8 starts (51.1 IP). 42 K / 17 BB. 20.9% K%, 8.5% BB%, 37.7% GB%. 5 HR allowed. The 2026 K rate is up from a 17.6% 2025 baseline and the walks are roughly in line (6.3% 2025 BB%). The 0.99 WHIP is the dominant top line on either pitcher's card.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-05-14)

Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).

Royals (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

Handedness: 7 RHB (Witt, Díaz, Thomas, Garcia, Loftin, Perez, Marte), 5 LHB (Jensen, Caglianone, Isbel, Massey, Pasquantino).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Phase 2 did not run an external injury or storyline search for this game. The Cardinals lineup is projected from 2026-05-14; the Royals lineup is from an active-roster pool of 13 position players, so today's batting order is unknown until first pitch.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Alec Burleson (8 PA), Nolan Gorman (7 PA), Ivan Herrera (5 PA), Masyn Winn (6 PA), Jordan Walker (3 PA).

Every Cardinals BvP cell against Wacha is a small sample. Burleson's 8 PA, .375 / .375 / .875 with 1 HR is the only line that approaches a usable read, and Gorman's 7 PA, .429 / .429 / .571 sits right behind it. The Cardinals have hit Wacha at the margins where they've seen him, but Wetherholt, Church, Saggese, and Pagés have no career history at all -- the projected lineup faces Wacha effectively blind.

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Wacha. Pozo, Scott, Fermin, and Prieto are absent from the BvP table.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Bobby Witt (6 PA), Kyle Isbel (4 PA), Salvador Perez (4 PA), Starling Marte (3 PA), Maikel Garcia (4 PA), Vinnie Pasquantino (4 PA), Jac Caglianone (2 PA), Elias Diaz (2 PA).

The Royals' BvP card against May is small-sample volatile but the top is real -- Witt and Isbel (.750 in 4 PA) have hit him, while Marte, Pasquantino, Caglianone, and Diaz are 0-fer in tiny samples. Garcia's .333 / .500 / .667 in 4 PA fills out the high-end group. Tonight's read: project from the 2025 platoon and batted-ball profiles (Sections 2C and 2M), not the BvP numbers.

Bench note: Loftin, Massey, Thomas, Jensen, and Collins have no career BvP history against May.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

Wacha throws right, so the Cardinals' full 2025 vs-RHP table reads as tonight's exposure. Burleson leads at .296 / .353 / .478 in 419 PA, 15 HR -- the steadiest lefty bat. Herrera (.268 / .343 / .399, 328 PA, 10 HR) is the top RHB profile. The bottom half is rougher: Walker .200 vs RHP in 289 PA, Gorman .201 in 309 PA, Church .114 in 51 PA. Wetherholt has no 2025 sample in the dataset (rookie).

Saggese (.254 in 227 PA) and Pagés (.225 with 9 HR in 276 PA) fill the back end. Against a Wacha who has held LHB to a .645 OPS and RHB to a .730 OPS in 2025 (Section 2D), Burleson and Herrera are the high-floor at-bats; the rest of the order is the swing-and-miss exposure that Wacha's 0.99 2026 WHIP feeds on.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

May throws right, so the full Royals 2025 vs-RHP table reads as tonight's exposure. Witt (.287 / .341 / .506, 22 HR in 543 PA) is the headline, with Pasquantino's near-mirror line as the lefty equivalent (.281 / .346 / .511, 26 HR in 518 PA). Garcia (.278 / .338 / .431 in 531 PA, 9.3% 2025 BB%) and Marte (.275 in 182 PA) round out the high-floor group.

Perez carries 28 HR vs RHP in 497 PA but only a .291 OBP -- a swing-and-miss power profile (Section 2L flags his 4.4% 2025 BB%). Caglianone (.148 in 165 PA) and Thomas (.165 in 95 PA) are the swing-prone bats most exposed to May's stuff. Jensen's .333 / .418 / .646 line is a 55 PA flag -- small sample, not actionable.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

May has a real platoon weakness vs LHB -- .852 OPS in 334 PA with 15 HR allowed. Against a Royals active roster carrying 5 LHB (Jensen, Caglianone, Isbel, Massey, Pasquantino) plus the switch-hitting Collins, that pocket is where May leaks power. The vs-RHB line (.711 OPS, 6 HR in 250 PA) is significantly stronger, so the Witt / Perez / Garcia / Marte / Thomas / Loftin / Diaz cluster is the more controllable side.

Wacha is the mirror -- stronger vs LHB (.645 OPS, only 5 HR in 372 PA) than vs RHB (.730 OPS, 10 HR in 344 PA). The Cardinals' 5 RHB are nominally the better side of the matchup, but Wacha's vs-RHB profile is still tidy. The starter advantage at the platoon level tilts to Wacha by a clear margin.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium -- May pitching at home, Wacha pitching away. May's 2025 home/away split is the largest on the card: 3.24 ERA at home (75.0 IP) vs 6.28 on the road (57.1 IP). He is in his stronger context tonight, and the gap is nearly three earned runs of separation.

Wacha's split is much narrower -- 3.09 ERA on the road in 2025 (81.2 IP) vs 3.46 at home (91.0 IP). He has been roughly equivalent in both contexts. The environmental edge tilts to May.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

May's 2025 second pass through the order is the soft spot. TTO1: .226 / .652 OPS in 227 PA. TTO2: .290 / .878 OPS in 220 PA. TTO3: .263 / .882 OPS in 137 PA. The first pass is the lockdown phase; both the second and third passes (innings 4-6 and innings 7+) carry an OPS above .870 with HR damage. The Royals' best swings come once they have seen him.

Wacha is the inverse shape: TTO1 .254 / .666, TTO2 .212 / .614 -- he is actually best in the second pass. TTO3 is the cliff at .322 / .469 / .846 OPS in 159 PA. The Cardinals' opening is to stretch him into a third pass through the order; if he is dealing through six, the matchup gets harder, not easier, as the bullpens take over.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5% on 26 inherited) is the dominant exit valve and the cleanest lefty bridge for the LHB pocket May leaks against. O'Brien (70.0% on 10) is at league average. Leahy (62.1% on 29) is below; Svanson (50.0% on 26) and Graceffo (54.5% on 11) are the high-risk doors when runners are already on. McGreevy's 100% on 3 IR is real but a tiny denominator.

Tonight's leverage decision: if May walks Pasquantino or Caglianone into trouble in innings 4-6 (his TTO2 cliff), Romero is the call. If the call goes to Svanson or Graceffo, the line on the scoreboard probably moves.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- KC

May is a moderate ground-ball pitcher (44.1% career GB%, 28.2% FB%). Witt's career GB AVG of .342 -- the highest on the Royals' table -- collides with May's heavy ground-ball lean to produce the single most worrying contact profile: Witt is the one Royal who hits grounders for hits at a real rate, and May is built to give them up. Garcia (.278 GB AVG, 46.1% 2025 GB%) and Massey (.309 GB AVG) extend the ground-ball-hits cluster.

Wacha is more fly-ball-prone (37.1% career GB%, 35.2% FB%) -- a profile that meets a Cardinals lineup whose 2025 fly-ball lean is concentrated in Gorman (41.7% FB%). The Cardinals' line-drive contact (see Section 2M) is the path to runs; Wacha's career LD% of 25.7% suggests average line-drive concession, but the heart of the order needs to square it.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

The catchers above reflect May's prior tenure -- Smith, Rushing, and Barnes are Dodgers receivers; Narvaez and Wong are from his interleague work. None of them are on the Cardinals' active roster. Tonight's scheduled catcher is Pedro Pages (active roster, projected to start, batting 9th, R), who has 0 career IP paired with May in this dataset -- a fresh battery.

That is a signal in itself. Unfamiliar pop-time calibration and signal sequencing in the first pass through the order tilts the early-inning advantage to the hitter when the pitcher is also working to a new receiver. With the Royals' running game live (Witt 38 SB, Garcia 23, Collins 16 in 2025 -- Section 2I), the new battery's read on running leans is the first-pass variable to track.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

The Royals carry a deep running threat into the fresh May-Pages battery (Section 2H). 2025 SB profile:

-- Bobby Witt: 38 SB, 9 CS, 80.9% success. Elite volume and efficiency.

-- Maikel Garcia: 23 SB, 9 CS, 71.9% success. Secondary volume threat.

-- Isaac Collins: 16 SB, 7 CS, 69.6% success.

-- Starling Marte: 7 SB, 2 CS, 77.8% success.

-- Lane Thomas: 4 SB, 1 CS, 80.0% success.

-- Kyle Isbel: 4 SB, 5 CS, 44.4% success. Aggression without efficiency.

-- Michael Massey: 2 SB, 1 CS, 66.7% success.

-- Nick Loftin: 1 SB, 1 CS, 50.0% success.

-- Jac Caglianone: 1 SB, 0 CS, 100% success (small sample).

-- Vinnie Pasquantino: 1 SB, 0 CS, 100% success (small sample).

Witt is the live threat at the top of the Royals order. Garcia and Collins extend the pressure if either reaches against May's walk rate.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Winn at SS (.994 Fld%, 64 DP in 129 G) is the elite middle-infield anchor. Pages at C (.994 Fld%, 110 G) is the established receiver. Walker at RF (.981 in 108 G) is the regular outfielder. With May at 44.1% career GB% and the Royals' top hitters (Witt .342 GB AVG, Garcia .278) hitting grounders for hits, the middle infield needs to be sharp.

Two placements to flag for tonight. Wetherholt is projected to start at 2B but does not appear in the 2025 defense table at any position -- rookie / no logged sample in this dataset. Saggese is projected at LF but his 2025 sample is entirely at 2B (35 G), SS (33 G), and 3B (18 G) -- no LF reps on record. Both are alignment-risk variables when ground balls and fly balls find them tonight.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium has historically played as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue. The JSON does not carry a numeric park factor for tonight, so the environmental read is qualitative -- not a hitter's park, but not death valley either.

Recent head-to-head: 3-3 in 2025, 1-3 in 2024 (Royals' favor), 2-2 in 2023, 3-1 in 2022 (Cardinals). Across 2022-2025 the season series have stayed close -- no team has dominated.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Five Cardinals carry a 2025 K% at or above the 25% high-K flag: Gorman (33.8%), Walker (31.8%), Saggese (28.1%), Church (27.7%), Pages (27.5%). Four of those five are also below the 6% low-walk flag (Pages 4.9%, Church 4.6%, Saggese 5.4%). Against a Wacha with elite 2026 control (8.5% BB%) and a 17.6% 2025 K% baseline, the bottom half of the Cardinals order is the strikeout pile -- the swing-prone bats can let Wacha cruise.

Royals

The Royals' core is contact-first: Garcia (12.6% 2025 K%), Pasquantino (15.7%), Massey (15.5%), Loftin (14.4%) -- this lineup is built to put the bat on the ball, not to strike out. Thomas (31.0%) and Diaz (26.1%) are the chase-prone outliers. Collins (12.9% BB%) and Jensen (13.0% BB%) are the rare patient bats on the card.

May's 2026 to date 17.9% K% / 6.1% BB% (2025 baseline 21.1% K% / 9.6% BB%) does not project to overwhelm this lineup with swing-and-miss. He has to manage contact, and the Royals are an above-average contact group.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Gorman is the only Cardinals 2025 fly-ball lean (41.7% FB%, 30.2% GB%), but Wacha's 2025 batted-ball profile (37.1% GB%, 35.2% FB%) is roughly balanced -- not the steep platform Gorman feasts on. Herrera (52.6% 2025 GB%) and Walker (48.9% 2025 GB%) project ground-ball-heavy contact into a Wacha who does not chase grounders; the line-drive lottery (Saggese 28.6% LD%, Gorman 28.1% LD%, Winn 26.3% LD%) is the more sustainable path.

Royals

Cross-reference to Section 2G: May's 44.1% career GB% meets a Royals group that puts plenty of balls on the ground -- Caglianone (53.0% 2025 GB%), Marte (50.5%), Isbel (49.3%), Jensen (48.9%), Garcia (46.1%). The path to keeping the ball in the park is real if May is locating, but Witt's career .342 GB AVG (Section 2G) says he turns those grounders into hits at an unusual rate.

The fly-ball cluster (Thomas 44.2%, Massey 43.0%, Diaz 41.3%, Perez 38.0%) is the HR-leakage risk against May's 15 HR allowed vs LHB and 6 HR vs RHB in 2025. Massey and Diaz in particular pair fly-ball lean with the platoon profile May leaks against.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Wacha: 2026 to date 20.9% K% / 8.5% BB%. 2025 baseline 17.6% K% / 6.3% BB% / 2.80 K/BB ratio. The 2026 K rate is up from the 2025 baseline while the walks have ticked up modestly -- the strikeout improvement is the engine behind the 2.63 ERA.

May: 2026 to date 17.9% K% / 6.1% BB%. 2025 baseline 21.1% K% / 9.6% BB% / 2.20 K/BB ratio. The 2026 walk rate is sharply better than his 2025 baseline -- the control has tightened. The 4.85 ERA is being driven by HR damage, not free passes.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Bobby Witt vs Dustin May. 6 career PA, .400 / .500 / 1.000 with 1 HR and zero strikeouts (small sample). 2025 vs RHP: .287 / .341 / .506 in 543 PA, 22 HR. Witt's career .342 GB AVG against May's 44.1% GB% lean is the most worrying contact profile on the table. He is the danger bat (Section 2B).

Vinnie Pasquantino vs Dustin May. 4 career PA, .000 with 1 BB (tiny sample). 2025 vs RHP: .281 / .346 / .511 with 26 HR in 518 PA -- the lefty equivalent of Witt's vs-RHP line. May's 2025 vs-LHB profile (.495 SLG, 15 HR in 334 PA) is exactly the soft spot Pasquantino targets.

Alec Burleson vs Michael Wacha. 8 career PA, .375 / .375 / .875 with 1 HR. 2025 vs RHP: .296 / .353 / .478 in 419 PA, 15 HR. Wacha owns lefties in 2025 (.245 / .295 / .350 / .645 OPS vs LHB), so Burleson is the Cardinals' rare lefty who has hit him. The Cardinals' top-of-the-order opening.

Ivan Herrera vs Michael Wacha. 5 career PA, .200 / .200 / .200 (small sample). 2025 vs RHP: .268 / .343 / .399 in 328 PA, 10 HR. Wacha's vs-RHB line is the softer side of his platoon (.730 OPS), and Herrera is the Cardinals' best RHB profile -- the secondary high-floor at-bat against the Royals' starter.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Bobby Witt performed against Dustin May in their career?

2. How has Dustin May fared against Vinnie Pasquantino in their career?

3. How has Alec Burleson performed against Michael Wacha in their career?

4. What are Michael Wacha's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Vinnie Pasquantino's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?