NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 27-16 | - | L4 |
| Brewers | 23-17 | 2.5 | L1 |
| Cardinals | 24-18 | 2.5 | L1 |
| Pirates | 23-20 | 4.0 | L1 |
| Reds | 22-21 | 5.0 | L2 |
AL WEST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 22-20 | - | W1 |
| Rangers | 21-22 | 1.5 | W2 |
| Mariners | 21-23 | 2.0 | L1 |
| Astros | 17-27 | 6.0 | W1 |
| Angels | 16-28 | 7.0 | L3 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7 | MIL | Home | L 0-0 |
| May 13 | OAK | Away | L 2-6 |
| May 12 | OAK | Away | W 6-4 |
| May 10 | SD | Away | L 2-3 (10) |
| May 9 | SD | Away | L 2-4 |
| May 8 | SD | Away | W 6-0 |
| May 7 | SD | Away | W 2-1 |
| May 6 | MIL | Home | L 2-6 |
| May 4 | MIL | Home | W 6-3 |
| May 3 | LAD | Home | L 1-4 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Michael McGreevy (R) -- Cardinals
2026 to date: 3-2, 2.18 ERA, 0.86 WHIP across 8 starts (45.1 IP). 33 K / 10 BB. 19.6% K%, 6.0% BB%, 53.1% GB%. 5 HR allowed. He has been the steadier half of the Cardinals' rotation, and the road splits favor him today -- 3.55 ERA on the road in 2025 vs 5.22 at home (Rule 33).
Jacob Lopez (L) -- Athletics
2026 to date: 3-2, 6.11 ERA, 1.75 WHIP across 7 starts (35.1 IP). 28 K / 24 BB. 16.8% K%, 14.4% BB%, 31.2% GB%. 8 HR allowed. The 2025 baseline K/BB ratio of 3.05 has collapsed in 2026 -- the walks are the story. He has been substantially better at home (1.83 ERA in 2025 at Sutter Health Park context vs 5.03 on the road).
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-05-13)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .310 | .800 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .233 | .752 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .321 | .871 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .265 | .914 |
| 5 | Gorman | 3B | L | .227 | .666 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .211 | .593 |
| 7 | Church | CF | L | .261 | .631 |
| 8 | Saggese | LF | R | .158 | .411 |
| 9 | Pagés | C | R | .154 | .476 |
Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).
Athletics (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Rooker | DH | R |
| Cortes | RF | L |
| Thomas | RF | R |
| Hernaiz | 3B | R |
| Bolte | RF | R |
| McNeil | 2B | L |
| Heim | C | S |
| Butler | RF | L |
| Stefanic | 2B | R |
| Kurtz | 1B | L |
| Langeliers | C | R |
| Soderstrom | LF | L |
| Gelof | CF | R |
Handedness: 7 RHB (Rooker, Thomas, Hernaiz, Bolte, Stefanic, Langeliers, Gelof), 5 LHB (Cortes, McNeil, Butler, Kurtz, Soderstrom).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
Phase 2 did not run an external injury or storyline search for this game. The Cardinals lineup is projected from 2026-05-13; the Athletics lineup is from an active-roster pool of 13 position players. Both batting orders carry projection risk for today's first pitch.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
No data available for this section.
No career BvP history exists for any Cardinals batter against Jacob Lopez -- the Cardinals are facing him blind. The matchup is decided by platoon, batted-ball, and TTO tendencies in Sections 2C through 2N.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
No data available for this section.
No career BvP history exists for any Athletics batter against Michael McGreevy. McGreevy faces this lineup with no prior look on either side of the matchup.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn R | 163 | .255 | .313 | .349 | 2 | 11 | 31 |
| Alec Burleson L | 127 | .271 | .310 | .398 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 124 | .330 | .455 | .660 | 9 | 19 | 18 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 113 | .243 | .292 | .359 | 2 | 7 | 35 |
| Jordan Walker R | 107 | .255 | .318 | .347 | 2 | 8 | 32 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 93 | .220 | .301 | .439 | 5 | 10 | 25 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 68 | .273 | .279 | .348 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| Nathan Church L | 14 | .417 | .417 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Lopez throws left, so the Cardinals' 5 RHB matter most. Herrera leads the 2025 vs-LHP table at .330 / .455 / .660 in 124 PA -- the cleanest matchup advantage on either side of the card. Saggese (.273 in 68 PA) and Walker (.255 in 107 PA) round out the RHB triangle, while Pagés has the most exposed line at .243 / .292.
The Cardinals' 4 LHB face a lefty-on-lefty disadvantage. Burleson (.271 in 127 PA) and Gorman (.220, but with 5 HR and a .439 SLG) are the higher-floor lefties; Wetherholt has no 2025 LHP sample in this dataset (rookie). Church's .417 line is a 14-PA flag -- small sample, do not lean on it.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Rooker R | 539 | .255 | .322 | .480 | 26 | 44 | 129 |
| Lawrence Butler L | 507 | .246 | .325 | .420 | 17 | 53 | 130 |
| Tyler Soderstrom L | 478 | .278 | .356 | .491 | 20 | 47 | 103 |
| Shea Langeliers R | 400 | .247 | .310 | .493 | 21 | 34 | 77 |
| Jeff McNeil L | 355 | .245 | .330 | .426 | 11 | 35 | 39 |
| Nick Kurtz L | 336 | .336 | .439 | .714 | 27 | 51 | 97 |
| Jonah Heim B | 301 | .214 | .273 | .330 | 7 | 22 | 57 |
| Darell Hernaiz R | 140 | .224 | .266 | .280 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| Carlos Cortes L | 94 | .303 | .319 | .551 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| Zack Gelof R | 75 | .194 | .257 | .313 | 2 | 6 | 30 |
| Colby Thomas R | 63 | .203 | .226 | .237 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| Michael Stefanic R | 20 | .222 | .300 | .222 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
McGreevy throws right, so the Athletics' 5 LHB are the trouble zone. Kurtz leads the table at .336 / .439 / .714 in 336 PA with 27 HR -- the lineup's clearest power threat against any RHP, and McGreevy specifically has a .911 OPS vs LHB profile in 2025 (Section 2D). Soderstrom (.278 / .491) and Butler (.246 / .420 with 17 HR) round out the LHB power that McGreevy is built to give up.
The RHB pocket is McGreevy-friendly: Hernaiz at .224 / .266 and the small-sample RHBs (Gelof .194 in 75 PA, Thomas .203 in 63 PA) are the swing-and-miss bats Section 2L will flag as elevated K%.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez | vs RHB | 314 | .234 | .322 | .428 | .750 | 14 | 88 |
| Jacob Lopez | vs LHB | 85 | .216 | .301 | .311 | .612 | 1 | 25 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs LHB | 190 | .318 | .368 | .543 | .911 | 9 | 27 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs RHB | 210 | .225 | .255 | .325 | .580 | 3 | 31 |
Mirror-image splits. Lopez owns LHB in 2025 (.612 OPS, only 1 HR allowed in 85 PA) but RHB hit him for a .750 OPS with 14 HR -- and the Cardinals start 5 RHB. McGreevy is the opposite shape: a .580 OPS vs RHB but a .911 OPS allowed to LHB. Each starter's weakness lines up with the other lineup's primary handedness pocket.
The early-inning script writes itself: McGreevy's hardest at-bats come against Kurtz / Soderstrom / Butler / McNeil; Lopez's hardest at-bats come against Herrera / Walker / Saggese.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez | Away | 214 | 48.1 | 5.03 | 51 | 22 | 9 |
| Jacob Lopez | Home | 185 | 44.1 | 1.83 | 62 | 15 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | Away | 188 | 45.2 | 3.55 | 24 | 9 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | Home | 212 | 50.0 | 5.22 | 34 | 11 | 6 |
Today's game is at Sutter Health Park -- McGreevy pitching away, Lopez pitching at home. Both are in their stronger context: McGreevy's 2025 away ERA was 3.55 vs 5.22 at home; Lopez's 2025 home ERA was 1.83 vs 5.03 on the road. The split-vs-split is a near-wash on environment.
Caveat: the Athletics' 2025 home park (Oakland Coliseum) is not the same building as 2026's Sutter Health Park (Sacramento). Lopez's 1.83 home figure is the only road-vs-home signal in the dataset, but the venue under which it was earned differs from today's. Treat the home-edge claim as suggestive rather than ironclad.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez | TTO1 | 184 | .223 | .369 | .699 | 6 | 49 | 21 |
| Jacob Lopez | TTO2 | 153 | .268 | .471 | .811 | 7 | 48 | 13 |
| Jacob Lopez | TTO3 | 62 | .158 | .333 | .559 | 2 | 16 | 3 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO1 | 154 | .282 | .465 | .792 | 5 | 22 | 8 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO2 | 152 | .271 | .417 | .715 | 4 | 14 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO3 | 94 | .241 | .379 | .677 | 3 | 22 | 6 |
Lopez has a sharp second-pass cliff. 2025 TTO1 line: .223 / .699 OPS. 2025 TTO2: .268 / .811 OPS. 2025 TTO3: .158 / .559. The vulnerability is the second pass through the order -- innings 4-6 -- after which the sample shrinks (62 PA) and the line collapses. The Cardinals' opening is to push his pitch count and reach TTO2 with their best bats.
McGreevy walks the opposite line: he is at his most hittable in the first pass (.282 / .792 OPS in 154 PA) and improves steadily through the order (.271 / .715, then .241 / .677). The earliest innings carry the most damage risk for the Cardinals' starter.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate is in the 68-72% range. Romero (88.5%) is the trustworthy bridge; O'Brien (70.0%) is at league average. Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are below-average IR closers -- the manager's leverage decision matters when the runners get there.
Leahy's 62.1% on 29 inherited is a below-average mark; he is more of a multi-inning long arm than a leverage stranding arm. If McGreevy walks the LHB tightrope into a jam, Romero is the cleanest exit; if Romero is unavailable, the strand-rate drop-off is significant.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez | 226 | 28.3% | 41.6% | 28.3% |
| Michael McGreevy | 307 | 49.2% | 25.7% | 24.4% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- OAK
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Butler | .251 | .582 | .110 |
| Carlos Cortes | .200 | .900 | .050 |
| Zack Gelof | .450 | .455 | .000 |
| Jonah Heim | .175 | .559 | .120 |
| Darell Hernaiz | .216 | .474 | .118 |
| Nick Kurtz | .291 | .790 | .103 |
| Shea Langeliers | .252 | .633 | .079 |
| Jeff McNeil | .152 | .645 | .053 |
| Brent Rooker | .244 | .644 | .102 |
| Tyler Soderstrom | .246 | .697 | .109 |
| Michael Stefanic | .222 | .500 | .000 |
| Colby Thomas | .259 | .846 | .120 |
McGreevy is a 2025 ground-ball pitcher (49.2% GB%, against a 25.7% FB%). He works under-the-bat. That collides with an Athletics group whose ground-ball averages are pedestrian (Kurtz .291 is the highest, Heim and McNeil under .200) and whose line-drive contact is elite (Kurtz .790, Soderstrom .697, McNeil .645, Rooker .644). McGreevy's path to controlling damage runs through inducing weak grounders -- the line-drive lottery is where the .911 OPS-vs-LHB issue gets paid out.
Lopez is a fly-ball pitcher (41.6% FB%, 28.3% GB%). Against a group of Cardinals whose 2025 line-drive ABs are not in the JSON, the cross-reference is to 2M -- Lopez's fly-ball lean and 8 HR allowed in 35.1 IP this year are the homer-leakage angle.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 14 | 80.2 | 4.24 | .266 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 8.2 | 9.35 | .385 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 1 | 5.2 | 0.00 | .056 | -- | -- |
Today's scheduled catcher is Pedro Pagés (active roster, projected to start). His McGreevy pairing is the only meaningful sample on the table: 14 G, 80.2 IP, 4.24 ERA, .266 AVG. This is the established battery -- familiar pop time, familiar sequencing.
Jimmy Crooks is not on the current active roster and the 2 G / 9.35 ERA line reflects prior-year work. Yohel Pozo is on the active roster as the backup catcher (1 G, 5.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, .056 AVG -- one-game sample). With Pagés starting, the pairing is the well-trodden one.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
The Athletics carry real running threats into a Pagés battery (Section 2H). Career-track stolen-base profile from 2025:
-- Lawrence Butler: 22 SB, 7 CS, 75.9% success. Volume leader.
-- Tyler Soderstrom: 8 SB, 3 CS, 72.7% success.
-- Shea Langeliers: 7 SB, 1 CS, 87.5% success. High-efficiency runner for a catcher.
-- Brent Rooker: 6 SB, 1 CS, 85.7% success.
-- Jonah Heim: 3 SB, 0 CS, 100% success. Lower volume but spotless.
-- Jeff McNeil: 3 SB, 0 CS, 100% success.
-- Darell Hernaiz: 3 SB, 4 CS, 42.9% success. Aggression without efficiency.
-- Nick Kurtz: 2 SB, 1 CS, 66.7% success.
-- Colby Thomas: 2 SB, 1 CS, 66.7% success.
-- Zack Gelof: 1 SB, 2 CS, 33.3% success.
Butler is the live threat to test Pagés if Lopez's walk parade puts him on base. The Langeliers / Rooker tier is a credible follow-on if McGreevy is slow to the plate.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Winn at SS (.994 Fld%, 64 DP in 129 G) is the elite middle-infield anchor. Pagés at C (.994 Fld%, 110 G) is the established battery. Burleson at 1B (.990 in 50 G) is steady. With McGreevy a 49.2% career ground-ball pitcher, the infield work matters.
Two unusual placements to flag for today. Wetherholt is starting at 2B but does not appear in the 2025 defense table at any position (rookie / no logged sample in this dataset). Saggese is projected at LF but his 2025 sample is entirely at 2B (35 G), SS (33 G), and 3B (18 G) -- no LF reps on record. A fly-ball lefty (Lopez, 41.6% FB%) putting balls in the air to an unfamiliar LF is a quiet risk variable.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Sutter Health Park (Sacramento) is the Athletics' temporary home through their relocation. The JSON does not carry a numeric park factor for this venue, so today's environment is best read qualitatively: this is the same building where the Cardinals split the first two games of the series, and Lopez's 1.83 home ERA in 2025 was earned in a different building.
Recent head-to-head: Cardinals won the season series 2-1 in 2024 and 2-1 in 2023. The current series stands at 1-1 entering today's rubber game.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
Five Cardinals carry a 2025 K% at or above the 25% high-K flag: Gorman (33.8%), Walker (31.8%), Saggese (28.1%), Church (27.7%), Pagés (27.5%). Of those five, four also carry a 2025 BB% below the 6% low-walk flag (Pagés 4.9%, Church 4.6%, Saggese 5.4%, Walker 7.3% is just above). Against a Lopez whose 2026 BB% is 14.4%, the discipline gap is the lineup's leverage point -- but the swing-happy bottom half can let him off the hook.
Athletics
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Rooker | 698 | 155 | 22.2% | 65 | 9.3% |
| Lawrence Butler | 630 | 179 | 28.4% | 59 | 9.4% |
| Tyler Soderstrom | 624 | 141 | 22.6% | 55 | 8.8% |
| Shea Langeliers | 523 | 103 | 19.7% | 36 | 6.9% |
| Nick Kurtz | 488 | 151 | 30.9% | 63 | 12.9% |
| Jeff McNeil | 462 | 55 | 11.9% | 49 | 10.6% |
| Jonah Heim | 433 | 88 | 20.3% | 32 | 7.4% |
| Darell Hernaiz | 197 | 24 | 12.2% | 17 | 8.6% |
| Colby Thomas | 132 | 49 | 37.1% | 7 | 5.3% |
| Zack Gelof | 101 | 46 | 45.5% | 7 | 6.9% |
| Carlos Cortes | 99 | 20 | 20.2% | 3 | 3.0% |
| Michael Stefanic | 25 | 3 | 12.0% | 3 | 12.0% |
Extreme K% bats stand out: Gelof 45.5%, Thomas 37.1%, Kurtz 30.9% in 2025. Butler at 28.4% rounds out the strikeout-prone group. Kurtz pairs his K% with an elite 12.9% BB% -- he is the rare bat that earns the count, then crushes when he connects. McNeil is the contact outlier at 11.9% K%.
For McGreevy (14.5% 2025 K%, 5.0% 2025 BB%), the 2025 baseline is contact-and-control over swing-and-miss. The Athletics lineup is built to either chase (Gelof / Thomas / Cortes) or punish (Kurtz / Butler). The first group is the strikeout pile; the second group is the homer risk.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Gorman is the only Cardinals 2025 fly-ball lean (41.7% FB%, 30.2% GB%) -- a clean profile match against Lopez's 41.6% FB% lean and 8 HR allowed in 2026. Herrera (52.6% GB%) and Walker (48.9% GB%) are ground-ball-leaning; their damage path on a fly-ball lefty is the rare elevated mistake. Church's 67.6% GB rate in a tiny 37-BIP sample is the most extreme on the table.
Athletics
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Rooker | 441 | 39.9% | 33.3% | 26.8% |
| Tyler Soderstrom | 394 | 51.5% | 23.4% | 25.1% |
| Lawrence Butler | 368 | 48.6% | 24.7% | 26.6% |
| Shea Langeliers | 347 | 41.2% | 32.9% | 25.9% |
| Jeff McNeil | 331 | 37.8% | 34.1% | 28.1% |
| Jonah Heim | 294 | 42.9% | 34.0% | 23.1% |
| Nick Kurtz | 233 | 44.2% | 29.2% | 26.6% |
| Darell Hernaiz | 146 | 50.7% | 23.3% | 26.0% |
| Carlos Cortes | 70 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Colby Thomas | 65 | 41.5% | 38.5% | 20.0% |
| Zack Gelof | 44 | 45.5% | 29.5% | 25.0% |
| Michael Stefanic | 19 | 47.4% | 31.6% | 21.1% |
Cross-reference to Section 2G: McGreevy's 2025 49.2% GB% pitches into a heavily ground-ball-prone OAK group -- Soderstrom (51.5%), Hernaiz (50.7%), Butler (48.6%), Stefanic (47.4%). The 6+3-4 path is real if McGreevy can get under the bat. Rooker (39.9% GB%, 33.3% FB%) and Langeliers (41.2% GB%, 32.9% FB%) are the more balanced power threats. Thomas's 2025 38.5% FB profile against a ground-ball righty is a low-percentage matchup for him.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | 95.2 | 58 | 14.5% | 20 | 5.0% | 2.90 |
| Jacob Lopez | 92.2 | 113 | 28.3% | 37 | 9.3% | 3.05 |
McGreevy: 2026 to date 19.6% K% / 6.0% BB%. 2025 baseline 14.5% K% / 5.0% BB% / 2.90 K/BB ratio. Both seasons paint the same picture -- elite control, modest strikeouts, the K/BB carries through contact suppression rather than swing-and-miss.
Lopez: 2026 to date 16.8% K% / 14.4% BB%. 2025 baseline 28.3% K% / 9.3% BB% / 3.05 K/BB ratio. The K rate has cratered and the walks have nearly doubled this year -- the 3.05 K/BB foundation has collapsed in 2026. That is the entire story of his 6.11 ERA: 2025's good lefty is throwing 2026's wild lefty.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Ivan Herrera vs Jacob Lopez. Herrera is .330 / .455 / .660 vs LHP in 2025 (124 PA, 9 HR). Lopez vs RHB in 2025: .234 / .322 / .428 (.750 OPS). Herrera's 18.7% 2025 K% and 9.6% 2025 BB%, paired with a 52.6% 2025 GB%, meet a fly-ball lefty (2025 FB% 41.6%) who is walking 14.4% in 2026. The matchup tilts every direction toward Herrera.
Nick Kurtz vs Michael McGreevy. Kurtz vs RHP in 2025: .336 / .439 / .714 with 27 HR in 336 PA. McGreevy vs LHB in 2025: .318 / .368 / .543 (.911 OPS). The largest single-matchup mismatch on the card, and Kurtz is coming off yesterday's grand slam off Liberatore. The .790 career LD AVG is the kicker -- when he squares it, it lands.
Pedro Pages vs Jacob Lopez (low-walk bat vs walk-prone lefty). Pages is .243 vs LHP in 2025 with the lineup's lowest 2025 BB% (4.9%) and a 27.5% K%. Against a Lopez who has issued 24 BB in 35.1 IP this year, Pages is the rare hitter who can let him off the hook on a chase pitch.
Brent Rooker vs Michael McGreevy. Rooker is .255 / .322 / .480 vs RHP in 2025 (539 PA, 26 HR), with a 22.2% K% and 9.3% BB%. Against McGreevy's 14.5% K% / 5.0% BB% control-first 2025 profile, Rooker is the leverage bat after the LHB pocket -- the secondary power threat if Kurtz / Soderstrom / Butler set the table.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Ivan Herrera performed against Jacob Lopez in their career?
2. How has Michael McGreevy fared against Nick Kurtz in their career?
3. How has Lawrence Butler performed against JoJo Romero in their career?
4. What are Jacob Lopez's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Nick Kurtz's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Sutter Health Park in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025