NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 27-14 | - | L2 |
| Brewers | 22-16 | 3.5 | W4 |
| Cardinals | 23-17 | 3.5 | L2 |
| Pirates | 22-19 | 5.0 | L1 |
| Reds | 22-19 | 5.0 | W2 |
AL WEST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 21-19 | - | L1 |
| Mariners | 20-22 | 2.0 | W1 |
| Rangers | 19-22 | 2.5 | L1 |
| Angels | 16-26 | 6.0 | L1 |
| Astros | 16-26 | 6.0 | L3 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7 | MIL | Home | L 0-0 |
| May 10 | SD | Away | L 2-3 (10) |
| May 9 | SD | Away | L 2-4 |
| May 8 | SD | Away | W 6-0 |
| May 7 | SD | Away | W 2-1 |
| May 6 | MIL | Home | L 2-6 |
| May 4 | MIL | Home | W 6-3 |
| May 3 | LAD | Home | L 1-4 |
| May 2 | LAD | Home | W 3-2 |
| May 1 | LAD | Home | W 7-2 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Andre Pallante (R) -- STL
2026 to date: 3-3, 4.34 ERA, 37.1 IP, 29 K, 16 BB, 1.37 WHIP, 5 HR across 7 starts. Heavy ground-ball lean (62.2% 2026 GB%) with a 17.6% 2026 K% and 9.7% BB%. 2025 baseline: 162.2 IP, 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.79 K/BB. Pallante is on the road tonight, which is his stronger 2025 context: 4.89 ERA away in 84.2 IP versus 5.42 at home in 78.0 IP. The platoon profile is flat -- 2025 vs LHB .266/.329/.434 (.763 OPS) and vs RHB .275/.345/.429 (.774 OPS) -- so there is no handedness lane to attack on the Oakland side.
Jeffrey Springs (L) -- OAK
2026 to date: 3-2, 3.89 ERA, 44.0 IP, 39 K, 12 BB, 1.14 WHIP, 7 HR across 8 starts. 2026 GB% 40.0%, K% 21.5%, BB% 6.6%. 2025 baseline: 171.0 IP, 19.4% K%, 7.6% BB%, 2.56 K/BB. Springs pitches at home tonight, which is his weaker venue split: 4.81 ERA home in 82.1 IP versus 3.45 away in 88.2 IP, with 17 HR allowed at home vs 11 on the road. His platoon line is the reverse of the usual L-on-L pattern -- 2025 vs RHB .235/.296/.436 (.732 OPS) is tougher on the AVG/OBP than vs LHB .241/.292/.368 (.660 OPS), but the SLG opens up against RHB.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-05-10)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .310 | .800 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .250 | .807 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .340 | .922 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .267 | .949 |
| 5 | Gorman | 3B | L | .227 | .666 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .222 | .624 |
| 7 | Church | CF | L | .250 | .627 |
| 8 | Saggese | LF | R | .158 | .411 |
| 9 | Pagés | C | R | .160 | .494 |
Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).
Athletics (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Rooker | RF | R |
| Harris | 3B | R |
| Cortes | RF | L |
| Thomas | RF | R |
| Hernaiz | 3B | R |
| Wilson | SS | R |
| McNeil | 2B | L |
| Heim | C | S |
| Butler | RF | L |
| Kurtz | 1B | L |
| Langeliers | C | R |
| Soderstrom | LF | L |
| Gelof | CF | R |
Handedness: 7 RHB (Rooker, Harris, Thomas, Hernaiz, Wilson, Langeliers, Gelof), 5 LHB (Cortes, McNeil, Butler, Kurtz, Soderstrom).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move data is present in the Phase 1 JSON for today.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 4 | 4 | 2 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan Gorman | 4 | 4 | 2 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Masyn Winn | 6 | 4 | 2 | .500 | .667 | .750 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alec Burleson | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ivan Herrera | 3 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Walker | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Pedro Pagés (4 PA), Nolan Gorman (4 PA), Masyn Winn (6 PA), Alec Burleson (3 PA), Thomas Saggese (2 PA), Ivan Herrera (3 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA).
Career BvP rows here top out at 6 PA -- below any meaningful threshold. Winn 2-for-4 with a walk, Pagés 2-for-4, and Gorman 2-for-4 are the only positive lines; Burleson, Saggese, and Walker are hitless in 2-3 PA each, and Herrera carries a walk on 3 PA. None of these samples cross the danger threshold (10+ PA, .400+ AVG), so this lineup is essentially facing Springs blind from a BvP standpoint. The 2C platoon and 2D pitcher splits do the real analytical work.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Springs in the JSON (Scott II, Fermín, Pozo, Prieto -- no rows).
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff McNeil | 7 | 7 | 1 | .143 | .143 | .143 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonah Heim | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Jeff McNeil (7 PA), Jonah Heim (2 PA).
Only two Athletics in the active-roster pool have any career BvP vs Pallante: McNeil 1-for-7 (.143) with a strikeout, and Heim 1-for-2 (.500, tiny). The other 11 names on Oakland's pool -- including the two biggest threats vs RHP (Kurtz, Rooker) -- have never faced Pallante. The 2C and 2L data sets are doing all the analytical work for this lineup.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Pallante in the JSON.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn R | 163 | .255 | .313 | .349 | 2 | 11 | 31 |
| Alec Burleson L | 127 | .271 | .310 | .398 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 124 | .330 | .455 | .660 | 9 | 19 | 18 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 113 | .243 | .292 | .359 | 2 | 7 | 35 |
| Jordan Walker R | 107 | .255 | .318 | .347 | 2 | 8 | 32 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 93 | .220 | .301 | .439 | 5 | 10 | 25 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 68 | .273 | .279 | .348 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| Nathan Church L | 14 | .417 | .417 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Springs is left-handed, so this 2025 vs LHP slate is what the Cardinals face tonight. Herrera's .330/.455/.660 over 124 PA is the headline -- a slugging-and-walk profile that dwarfs anything else in the lineup. The four RHB names of consequence (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Pagés) all post above-.290 OBP vs LHP; Saggese .273/.279 has the average but minimal walk profile. The Cardinals' four LHB facing a same-hand starter are the drag: Burleson .271/.310 has the best of them, Gorman .220 with five HR is power-only, Wetherholt has no 2025 vs LHP row in the JSON, and Church's 14 PA sample is too small to lean on. The lineup-card answer is to ride the RHB cluster behind Herrera and Walker in the 2-4 spots.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Rooker R | 539 | .255 | .322 | .480 | 26 | 44 | 129 |
| Lawrence Butler L | 507 | .246 | .325 | .420 | 17 | 53 | 130 |
| Tyler Soderstrom L | 478 | .278 | .356 | .491 | 20 | 47 | 103 |
| Jacob Wilson R | 407 | .302 | .350 | .430 | 9 | 22 | 31 |
| Shea Langeliers R | 400 | .247 | .310 | .493 | 21 | 34 | 77 |
| Jeff McNeil L | 355 | .245 | .330 | .426 | 11 | 35 | 39 |
| Nick Kurtz L | 336 | .336 | .439 | .714 | 27 | 51 | 97 |
| Jonah Heim B | 301 | .214 | .273 | .330 | 7 | 22 | 57 |
| Darell Hernaiz R | 140 | .224 | .266 | .280 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| Carlos Cortes L | 94 | .303 | .319 | .551 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| Zack Gelof R | 75 | .194 | .257 | .313 | 2 | 6 | 30 |
| Colby Thomas R | 63 | .203 | .226 | .237 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| Brett Harris R | 53 | .304 | .377 | .391 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
Pallante is right-handed, so this 2025 vs RHP slate is what he faces. Kurtz .336/.439/.714 (336 PA, 27 HR) is the lineup's lethal bat -- the highest SLG against RHP in either team's pool, and the .439 OBP is the disciplined-and-dangerous combo. Soderstrom .278/.356/.491 (20 HR) and Wilson .302/.350/.430 are the secondary on-base anchors. Rooker .255/.322/.480 brings the right-handed power. The thin spots are Hernaiz .224/.266, Gelof .194/.257, and Thomas .203/.226 -- the bottom three should be where Pallante can navigate cleanly. Cortes .303/.319/.551 on a 94 PA sample is a useful bench/depth threat.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | vs LHB | 347 | .266 | .329 | .434 | .763 | 10 | 60 |
| Andre Pallante | vs RHB | 368 | .275 | .345 | .429 | .774 | 11 | 51 |
| Jeffrey Springs | vs RHB | 569 | .235 | .296 | .436 | .732 | 25 | 111 |
| Jeffrey Springs | vs LHB | 144 | .241 | .292 | .368 | .660 | 3 | 27 |
Pallante is essentially platoon-neutral: 2025 vs LHB .266/.329/.434 (.763 OPS) and vs RHB .275/.345/.429 (.774 OPS). There is no handedness lane for Oakland to overload -- the 7 RHB / 5 LHB / 1 SHB pool is just the pool. Springs is the more interesting study: 2025 vs RHB .235/.296/.436 (.732 OPS, 25 HR over 569 PA) and vs LHB .241/.292/.368 (.660 OPS). The HR risk lives with the right-handed bats, and the Cardinals carry five (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés). The four LHB facing a same-hand starter is the structural drag the lineup card is fighting.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | Away | 375 | 84.2 | 4.89 | 67 | 35 | 11 |
| Andre Pallante | Home | 340 | 78.0 | 5.42 | 44 | 27 | 10 |
| Jeffrey Springs | Away | 360 | 88.2 | 3.45 | 69 | 29 | 11 |
| Jeffrey Springs | Home | 353 | 82.1 | 4.81 | 69 | 25 | 17 |
Tonight's game is at Sutter Health Park. Pallante is away (84.2 IP, 4.89 ERA, 67 K) -- his stronger 2025 venue context. Springs is home (82.1 IP, 4.81 ERA, 17 HR) -- his weaker context, and the only line in the table where a starter's HR total (17) exceeds his IP-paced expectation. The home/away math favors the road pitcher in both columns: Pallante's 4.89 away ERA narrows the gap on Springs's 4.81 home ERA to nearly nothing.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | TTO1 | 279 | .266 | .393 | .720 | 6 | 35 | 21 |
| Andre Pallante | TTO2 | 270 | .309 | .487 | .868 | 8 | 46 | 27 |
| Andre Pallante | TTO3 | 166 | .217 | .408 | .691 | 7 | 30 | 14 |
| Jeffrey Springs | TTO1 | 293 | .264 | .453 | .777 | 11 | 62 | 24 |
| Jeffrey Springs | TTO2 | 284 | .233 | .432 | .722 | 13 | 53 | 21 |
| Jeffrey Springs | TTO3 | 136 | .184 | .336 | .579 | 4 | 23 | 9 |
Pallante's 2025 second pass through the order is his cliff: 270 PA, .309 AVG, .487 SLG, .868 OPS. The .720 OPS first pass through the order tightens to dominance by the third pass through the order (.691 OPS, .217 AVG, 30 K in 166 PA) -- but the middle innings (typical TTO2 window, innings 4-6) are where the offense converts. Springs is the opposite shape: he gets stronger as the game goes on. First pass through the order .777 OPS, second pass .722 OPS, third pass .579 OPS with a .184 AVG. If Oakland is going to get him to the third pass, the Cardinals' offensive runway closes hard.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average inherited-runner strand is roughly 68-72%. Romero's 88.5% strand on 26 IR is the cleanest fork in the pen -- the right call any time men are on with the game in the balance. Svanson's 50.0% (26 IR, 13 scored) and Graceffo's 54.5% (11 IR, 5 scored) are the leak points; mid-inning entries from either invite trouble against an Oakland lineup that turns walks into runs through Rooker and Kurtz behind them. Leahy at 62.1% on 29 IR is the volume bridge -- below league average but not catastrophic.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | 515 | 61.2% | 18.3% | 19.6% |
| Jeffrey Springs | 490 | 32.7% | 36.3% | 30.0% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- OAK
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Butler | .251 | .582 | .110 |
| Carlos Cortes | .200 | .900 | .050 |
| Zack Gelof | .450 | .455 | .000 |
| Brett Harris | .385 | .778 | .188 |
| Jonah Heim | .175 | .559 | .120 |
| Darell Hernaiz | .216 | .474 | .118 |
| Nick Kurtz | .291 | .790 | .103 |
| Shea Langeliers | .252 | .633 | .079 |
| Jeff McNeil | .152 | .645 | .053 |
| Brent Rooker | .244 | .644 | .102 |
| Tyler Soderstrom | .246 | .697 | .109 |
| Colby Thomas | .259 | .846 | .120 |
| Jacob Wilson | .248 | .639 | .091 |
Pallante's career batted-ball profile is the extreme of the table: 61.2% GB, 18.3% FB, 19.6% LD. That collides with an Oakland lineup whose 2025 GB profile is heavy across the board -- Wilson 54.8% GB, Soderstrom 51.5%, Hernaiz 50.7%, Butler 48.6%, Kurtz 44.2%. Ground balls become the play pattern. Where the offense converts is on line drives: Kurtz .790 career LD AVG, Thomas .846, Soderstrom .697, McNeil .645, Wilson .639. Pallante's hits-allowed pattern lives in that LD band when he misses the bottom of the zone. Springs is the opposite at 32.7% career GB / 36.3% FB -- the Cardinals' fly-ball hitters (Gorman 41.7% FB) are the matchup angle, and Sutter Health Park is the unknown.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 15 | 76.1 | 4.60 | .257 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 8 | 37.2 | 6.93 | .303 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 5 | 23.1 | 4.24 | .258 | -- | -- |
| Ivan Herrera | 5 | 23.2 | 4.56 | .271 | -- | -- |
Three of the four catchers above are on the Cardinals' active roster: Pagés, Pozo, and Herrera. Jimmy Crooks does not appear in the active rosters payload -- his 5 G / 23.1 IP / 4.24 ERA with Pallante is from a prior-season Cardinals stint and is not in tonight's options. Tonight's scheduled catcher is Pedro Pagés (lineup spot 9), the established workhorse pairing with Pallante: 15 games and 76.1 IP at a 4.60 catcher-ERA -- the largest sample in the table and roughly in line with Pallante's overall 4.34 2026 ERA. Herrera carries five-game/23.2-IP catching history with Pallante (4.56 ERA) but is the DH tonight, not the receiver.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Top SB threats facing the Cardinals battery tonight:
-- Lawrence Butler: 22 SB / 7 CS, 75.9% success rate.
-- Tyler Soderstrom: 8 SB / 3 CS, 72.7%.
-- Shea Langeliers: 7 SB / 1 CS, 87.5%.
-- Brent Rooker: 6 SB / 1 CS, 85.7%.
-- Jacob Wilson: 5 SB / 2 CS, 71.4%.
-- Jonah Heim: 3 SB / 0 CS, 100%.
-- Jeff McNeil: 3 SB / 0 CS, 100%.
-- Darell Hernaiz: 3 SB / 4 CS, 42.9%.
-- Colby Thomas: 2 SB / 1 CS, 66.7%.
-- Nick Kurtz: 2 SB / 1 CS, 66.7%.
-- Brett Harris: 1 SB / 0 CS, 100%.
-- Zack Gelof: 1 SB / 2 CS, 33.3%.
Butler is the only true volume threat (22 SB) and a 75.9% rate is workable for the Cardinals battery. Langeliers (87.5%) and Rooker (85.7%) are the efficiency threats on smaller volume. Heim and McNeil are perfect on 3 attempts each -- pick-and-go runners worth tracking in close-and-late spots.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Tonight's defensive alignment per the lineup card: Wetherholt 2B, Burleson 1B, Walker RF, Gorman 3B, Winn SS, Church CF, Saggese LF, Pagés C. Winn at SS is the elite glove (0.994 Fld%, 64 DP over 129 G). Pagés catching at 0.994. Burleson at 1B (0.990) is the established sample. Two starts run against the career fielding sample: Wetherholt has no row in the defense table at all, so 2B tonight is a small-sample bet on a rookie's range; Saggese is in LF for the second straight night despite his career sample being 2B/SS/3B -- the LF assignment is outside his fielding history here. Gorman at 3B carries 0.950 with 6 errors over 54 G -- the soft spot in the infield alignment behind a 62.2% GB starter.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Recent head-to-head: 2024: STL 2-1. 2023: STL 2-1. A 4-2 cumulative split across the two-season sample, slightly Cardinals.
Ballpark: Sutter Health Park is the Athletics' current home venue. The 2K data in the JSON does not carry a numeric park factor, so dimension-specific calls are not available -- treat this game as a neutral venue context for run scoring until the head-to-head sample at this park builds out.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
Burleson is the contact anchor: 2025 K% 14.5%, BB% 7.2%. Herrera 2025 K% 18.7% / BB% 9.6% is the disciplined-and-dangerous profile that pairs with his .660 SLG vs LHP. The strikeout-vulnerability spots are Gorman 33.8% K% and Walker 31.8%, both above the danger marker. Below 6% BB% (Pagés, Saggese, Church) are the don't-walk hitters who have to put balls in play against a 7.6% BB% starter.
Athletics
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Rooker | 698 | 155 | 22.2% | 65 | 9.3% |
| Lawrence Butler | 630 | 179 | 28.4% | 59 | 9.4% |
| Tyler Soderstrom | 624 | 141 | 22.6% | 55 | 8.8% |
| Jacob Wilson | 523 | 39 | 7.5% | 27 | 5.2% |
| Shea Langeliers | 523 | 103 | 19.7% | 36 | 6.9% |
| Nick Kurtz | 488 | 151 | 30.9% | 63 | 12.9% |
| Jeff McNeil | 462 | 55 | 11.9% | 49 | 10.6% |
| Jonah Heim | 433 | 88 | 20.3% | 32 | 7.4% |
| Darell Hernaiz | 197 | 24 | 12.2% | 17 | 8.6% |
| Colby Thomas | 132 | 49 | 37.1% | 7 | 5.3% |
| Zack Gelof | 101 | 46 | 45.5% | 7 | 6.9% |
| Carlos Cortes | 99 | 20 | 20.2% | 3 | 3.0% |
| Brett Harris | 84 | 21 | 25.0% | 7 | 8.3% |
Wilson's 2025 K% 7.5% is the lineup's contact extreme -- pitch-to-contact, ball-in-play guaranteed, the right profile to slap singles against a high-GB starter. Kurtz pairs 30.9% K% with the lineup's only 12.9% BB% -- swing-and-miss with elite walk rates is the boom-or-bust combination. The strikeout-vulnerability cluster (Gelof 45.5%, Thomas 37.1%, Kurtz 30.9%, Butler 28.4%) is the swing-rate lane Pallante can exploit when ahead in the count, but Pallante's 2025 K% of 15.5% is not the profile that maximizes that lane. McNeil 11.9% K% / 10.6% BB% is the on-base nuisance bat low in the pool.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Springs is a fly-ball pitcher (32.7% career GB), so Gorman's 2025 41.7% FB / 30.2% GB profile is the elevator that lines up with a Springs mistake. Herrera's 52.6% GB rate is the hammer-on-the-ground profile and trades on his .660 SLG vs LHP doing damage when contact stays low. Church's 67.6% GB on a 37 BIP sample is noise more than signal. Burleson's 42 / 33 / 25 spread is the well-rounded contact profile.
Athletics
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Rooker | 441 | 39.9% | 33.3% | 26.8% |
| Jacob Wilson | 434 | 54.8% | 20.3% | 24.9% |
| Tyler Soderstrom | 394 | 51.5% | 23.4% | 25.1% |
| Lawrence Butler | 368 | 48.6% | 24.7% | 26.6% |
| Shea Langeliers | 347 | 41.2% | 32.9% | 25.9% |
| Jeff McNeil | 331 | 37.8% | 34.1% | 28.1% |
| Jonah Heim | 294 | 42.9% | 34.0% | 23.1% |
| Nick Kurtz | 233 | 44.2% | 29.2% | 26.6% |
| Darell Hernaiz | 146 | 50.7% | 23.3% | 26.0% |
| Carlos Cortes | 70 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Colby Thomas | 65 | 41.5% | 38.5% | 20.0% |
| Brett Harris | 51 | 51.0% | 31.4% | 17.6% |
| Zack Gelof | 44 | 45.5% | 29.5% | 25.0% |
Pallante 2026 GB% 62.2% (career 61.2%) meets an Oakland lineup that already leans toward ground contact: Wilson 54.8% GB, Soderstrom 51.5%, Harris 51.0%, Hernaiz 50.7%. The collision should produce ground-ball-dominated at-bats throughout the order. The danger zone is the LD% column, where the entire lineup sits between 17.6% and 28.6% -- line drives are how this group beats Pallante when they get under the sinker. Kurtz 44.2% GB / 29.2% FB / 26.6% LD has the most balanced damage profile in the group; he is the bat least suppressed by Pallante's ground tilt.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | 162.2 | 111 | 15.5% | 62 | 8.7% | 1.79 |
| Jeffrey Springs | 171.0 | 138 | 19.4% | 54 | 7.6% | 2.56 |
2026 to date: Pallante 17.6% K%, 9.7% BB%; Springs 21.5% K%, 6.6% BB%. 2025 baseline: Pallante 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.79 K/BB; Springs 19.4% K%, 7.6% BB%, 2.56 K/BB. Springs is the better-command profile in both 2025 and 2026 -- his 2.56 K/BB ratio is well clear of Pallante's 1.79, and his 2026 BB% has tightened to 6.6%. Pallante's 2026 BB% has climbed to 9.7%, above his 2025 baseline -- the walk rate is the marker to watch tonight, especially against a Kurtz / Rooker / Soderstrom cluster that turns baserunners into runs.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Key Matchups
Iván Herrera vs Jeffrey Springs. Herrera's 2025 vs LHP line is .330/.455/.660 (124 PA, 9 HR) -- the single biggest platoon edge on either side. Career BvP is 0-for-2 with a walk in 3 PA, so the BvP sample is noise. Hitting second feeds him an extra plate appearance, and Springs's 2025 second pass through the order (.722 OPS) and first pass through the order (.777 OPS, 11 HR) are the windows where Herrera does the damage.
Nick Kurtz vs Andre Pallante. Kurtz is the threat: 2025 vs RHP .336/.439/.714 over 336 PA with 27 HR. He has never faced Pallante in the JSON's BvP sample. Pallante's 62.2% 2026 GB% and 1.79 2025 K/BB do not project to neutralize Kurtz's air-ball profile -- if Kurtz gets a mistake elevated, it leaves Sutter Health Park. The 2H battery sets Pagés behind the plate; sequencing matters more than the receiver here.
Jordan Walker vs Jeffrey Springs. Walker's 2025 vs LHP line is .255/.318/.347 (107 PA, 2 HR) -- modest, but he hits cleanup and faces a starter whose 2025 vs RHB SLG (.436) opens up versus his vs LHB (.368). Walker is 0-for-2 BvP, which says nothing.
Bullpen fork. Romero's 88.5% strand rate on 26 IR is the cleanest option once Pallante exits; Svanson's 50.0% on 26 IR is the leak. With Pallante's 2025 second pass through the order (.868 OPS) marking the innings 4-6 window as his cliff, the inning Romero is brought in -- and the inning he isn't -- decides the middle game.
The X-factor: Pallante's TTO2 cliff. 2025 TTO2: 270 PA, .309 AVG, .487 SLG, .868 OPS. If Pallante can navigate the second pass through the order, the third pass through the order tightens back to a .691 OPS. Innings 4-6 are where this game most likely turns.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Iván Herrera performed against Jeffrey Springs in their career?
2. How has Andre Pallante fared against Nick Kurtz in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Lawrence Butler in their career?
4. What are Andre Pallante's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Iván Herrera's splits vs LHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Sutter Health Park in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025