NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 27-14 | - | L2 |
| Cardinals | 23-16 | 3.0 | L1 |
| Brewers | 22-16 | 3.5 | W4 |
| Pirates | 22-18 | 4.5 | W1 |
| Reds | 22-19 | 5.0 | W2 |
NL WEST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 24-15 | - | L1 |
| Padres | 23-16 | 1.0 | W1 |
| D-backs | 18-20 | 5.5 | W1 |
| Rockies | 16-25 | 9.0 | L2 |
| Giants | 15-24 | 9.0 | L1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7 | MIL | Home | L 0-0 |
| May 9 | SD | Away | L 2-4 |
| May 8 | SD | Away | W 6-0 |
| May 7 | SD | Away | W 2-1 |
| May 6 | MIL | Home | L 2-6 |
| May 4 | MIL | Home | W 6-3 |
| May 3 | LAD | Home | L 1-4 |
| May 2 | LAD | Home | W 3-2 |
| May 1 | LAD | Home | W 7-2 |
| Apr 30 | PIT | Away | W 10-5 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Kyle Leahy (R) -- STL
2026 to date: 4-3, 4.42 ERA, 38.2 IP, 31 K, 15 BB, 1.58 WHIP across 8 starts. Ground-ball lean (59.5% 2026 GB%) with a 17.7% 2026 K% and 8.6% BB%. Today is on the road, which is the friendlier context: 2.68 ERA away in 43.2 IP versus 4.47 at home in 44.1 IP. The platoon profile carries a 2025 vs RHB line of .238/.270/.319 (.589 OPS) -- a meaningful tilt against San Diego's six right-handed bats today.
Walker Buehler (R) -- SD
2026 to date: 2-2, 5.50 ERA, 34.1 IP, 31 K, 12 BB, 1.40 WHIP across 8 starts. 2026 GB% sits at 52.9%, K% 20.5%, BB% 7.9%. Buehler's home edge is real (3.43 home ERA in 65.2 IP vs 5.97 away in 60.1 IP, 2025 baseline), but his weakness is left-handed bats: 2025 vs LHB .300/.390/.440 (.830 OPS) across 316 PA versus vs RHB .221/.317/.433 (.750 OPS). The Cardinals' four LHB at the top of the order are the angle.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Expected)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .310 | .800 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .250 | .807 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .347 | .940 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .256 | .877 |
| 5 | Gorman | 3B | L | .233 | .680 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .222 | .608 |
| 7 | Church | CF | L | .250 | .627 |
| 8 | Saggese | LF | R | .158 | .411 |
| 9 | Pagés | C | R | .160 | .494 |
Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).
Padres (Expected)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merrill | CF | L | .324 | .933 |
| 2 | Tatis | RF | R | .360 | .772 |
| 3 | Machado | 3B | R | .185 | .758 |
| 4 | Sheets | LF | L | .333 | 1.031 |
| 5 | Bogaerts | SS | R | .257 | .824 |
| 6 | Andujar | DH | R | .304 | .708 |
| 7 | France | 1B | R | .278 | .906 |
| 8 | Song | 2B | L | .500 | 1.500 |
| 9 | Durán | C | R | -- | -- |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Andujar, France, Durán), 3 LHB (Merrill, Sheets, Song).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move data is present in the Phase 1 JSON for today.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Burleson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Herrera | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 2.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Masyn Winn (2 PA), Alec Burleson (2 PA), Ivan Herrera (2 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA).
The career BvP samples here are all 2 PA -- statistically meaningless on their own, useful only as flavor. Burleson 2-for-2 and Herrera 1-for-2 with a HR are the eye-catchers; Winn 1-for-2 has the same status. Wetherholt, Gorman, Church, Saggese, and Pages have no career history vs Buehler. The Cardinals are effectively facing Buehler blind from a BvP standpoint -- the platoon and TTO splits in 2C/2E are doing the analytical work today.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Buehler in the JSON (Scott II, Fermin, Pozo, Prieto -- no rows).
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ty France | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fernando Tatis | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miguel Andujar | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson Merrill | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Manny Machado (3 PA), Ty France (2 PA), Fernando Tatis (2 PA), Miguel Andujar (1 PA), Xander Bogaerts (1 PA), Jackson Merrill (1 PA).
Machado 1-for-3 with the only career hit. Tatis 0-for-2, France 0-for-2, Andujar 0-for-1 with a K, Bogaerts 0-for-1, Merrill 0-for-1. Sheets, Song, and Duran have no career BvP rows vs Leahy. None of these samples reach a meaningful threshold; Machado's hit is the only positive note. The 2C platoon and 2L K%/BB% data carry the analysis weight for this lineup.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Leahy in the JSON.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 276 | .225 | .264 | .364 | 9 | 12 | 72 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 227 | .254 | .305 | .340 | 1 | 15 | 63 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
The 2025 vs RHP slate against Buehler today: Burleson .296/.353/.478 and Herrera .268/.343/.399 are the on-base anchors at the top. Gorman's 2025 vs RHP line (.201 AVG, .294 OBP, .349 SLG, 9 HR, 37 BB) is power-and-walks despite the average -- a textbook Buehler-vs-LHB matchup given the 10.8% 2026 BB% Buehler is allowing. The drag is on the RHB side: Walker .200/.263, Pages .225/.264, and Church (LHB but tiny 51 PA, .114) is the cold spot. Wetherholt has no 2025 vs RHP row -- a Phase 1 data gap.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis R | 516 | .277 | .366 | .466 | 20 | 58 | 100 |
| Manny Machado R | 500 | .279 | .332 | .440 | 15 | 36 | 99 |
| Gavin Sheets L | 393 | .250 | .323 | .452 | 17 | 34 | 80 |
| Xander Bogaerts R | 389 | .246 | .317 | .368 | 8 | 34 | 70 |
| Ty France R | 351 | .263 | .330 | .349 | 4 | 16 | 60 |
| Jackson Merrill L | 321 | .279 | .336 | .514 | 15 | 24 | 76 |
| Miguel Andujar R | 250 | .289 | .332 | .427 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
Leahy is right-handed, so this 2025 vs RHP slate is what he faces. The 2-3 of Tatis (.277/.366/.466) and Machado (.279/.332/.440) is the hard portion of the lineup; both are above-league SLG vs RHP. Andujar's .289/.332/.427 in 250 PA jumps off the page as the surprise edge in the 6-hole. Merrill is a strong LHB vs RHP (.279/.336/.514, 15 HR) -- the platoon math actually works against Leahy with the three Padres LHB (Merrill, Sheets, Song). Song has no 2025 vs RHP row in the JSON.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | vs LHB | 316 | .300 | .390 | .440 | .830 | 8 | 49 |
| Walker Buehler | vs RHB | 249 | .221 | .317 | .433 | .750 | 14 | 43 |
| Kyle Leahy | vs LHB | 163 | .252 | .337 | .364 | .701 | 3 | 37 |
| Kyle Leahy | vs RHB | 200 | .238 | .270 | .319 | .589 | 2 | 43 |
Buehler is the platoon mirror: 2025 vs LHB .300/.390/.440 (.830 OPS) over 316 PA, vs RHB .221/.317/.433 (.750 OPS) over 249 PA. The Cardinals' lineup-card answer is four LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church) batting 1-3-5-7 around the RHB threats. Leahy is the opposite kind of asymmetry: vs RHB .238/.270/.319 (.589 OPS) is elite, vs LHB .252/.337/.364 (.701) is workable. With San Diego carrying six RHB today, Leahy is positioned to lean on his strength.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | Away | 282 | 60.1 | 5.97 | 40 | 29 | 12 |
| Walker Buehler | Home | 283 | 65.2 | 3.43 | 52 | 32 | 10 |
| Kyle Leahy | Away | 173 | 43.2 | 2.68 | 46 | 13 | 2 |
| Kyle Leahy | Home | 190 | 44.1 | 4.47 | 34 | 15 | 3 |
Today's game is at Petco Park. Buehler is home (3.43 ERA, 65.2 IP, 52 K) -- his stronger context. Leahy is away (2.68 ERA, 43.2 IP, 46 K, 2 HR) -- also his stronger context. The split favors Leahy more dramatically: a 1.79-run ERA improvement vs Buehler's 2.54-run gap, but Leahy's away K-rate climbs (46 K in 43.2 IP) while his home K-rate drops (34 in 44.1 IP). Two pitchers in their preferred environment.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | TTO1 | 236 | .279 | .452 | .816 | 9 | 35 | 24 |
| Walker Buehler | TTO2 | 215 | .251 | .413 | .777 | 8 | 31 | 27 |
| Walker Buehler | TTO3 | 114 | .262 | .447 | .780 | 5 | 26 | 10 |
| Kyle Leahy | TTO1 | 355 | .247 | .341 | .645 | 5 | 76 | 28 |
| Kyle Leahy | TTO2 | 8 | .125 | .250 | .375 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Buehler's 2025 first pass through the order is his most vulnerable window: 236 PA, .279/.452, .816 OPS, 9 HR. His second and third pass tighten up (.777 and .780 OPS) -- counter to the typical TTO curve. Cardinals offense, if it comes, is most likely to come in innings 1-3 against the rested form. Leahy's 2025 TTO1 line (355 PA, .247/.341, .645 OPS) is solid, and his TTO2 sample is too small to lean on (8 PA, .125, .375 OPS). The takeaway: Leahy is typically a one-pass-through starter, and the bullpen budget today should reflect that.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average inherited-runner strand is roughly 68-72%. Romero's 88.5% (26 IR, 3 scored) is the cleanest fork in the pen; bring him in with men on. Svanson's 50.0% (26 IR, 13 scored) and Graceffo's 54.5% are the leak points -- avoid mid-inning entries for either if avoidable. With Leahy starting today, his name on this table reflects his prior relief work (62.1% strand on 29 IR); now in the rotation, he is the inherited-runner producer rather than the cleaner.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 378 | 44.4% | 27.2% | 28.0% |
| Kyle Leahy | 249 | 44.2% | 26.9% | 27.7% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- SD
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Andujar | .315 | .683 | .133 |
| Xander Bogaerts | .302 | .509 | .113 |
| Ty France | .192 | .660 | .143 |
| Manny Machado | .238 | .694 | .081 |
| Jackson Merrill | .323 | .552 | .098 |
| Gavin Sheets | .240 | .523 | .114 |
| Fernando Tatis | .294 | .681 | .032 |
Both starters share nearly identical 2025 batted ball profiles -- Buehler 44.4% GB, Leahy 44.2% GB -- so this matchup hinges on which lineup can elevate. The Padres pool is line-drive-heavy when contact lands: Machado .694 on line drives, France .660, Tatis .681, Andujar .683. Ground balls are mostly outs for the Padres (Machado .238 on GB, France .192, Sheets .240), which dovetails with Leahy's 2025 GB profile -- ground contact is his friend, line-drive contact is the danger pattern.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 43 | 62.0 | 3.05 | .225 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 13 | 16.0 | 2.25 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 4 | 6.1 | 8.53 | .346 | -- | -- |
| Ivan Herrera | 4 | 3.0 | 6.00 | .308 | -- | -- |
All four catchers above are active-roster Cardinals (Pages, Pozo, and Herrera on tonight's roster per Phase 1; Crooks is the only name on the table not in the active rosters payload). Tonight's scheduled catcher is Pedro Pages (lineup spot 9), the workhorse pairing -- 43 games and 62.0 IP with Leahy at a 3.05 ERA, easily the strongest catcher-ERA in the table. The battery is established. With Tatis (32 SB, 82.1% success), Bogaerts (20 SB, 90.9%), and Machado (14 SB, 82.4%) all running threats, Pages' familiarity with Leahy's release shapes pop-time calibration on the back-end.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Top SB threats facing the Cardinals battery today:
-- Fernando Tatis: 32 SB / 7 CS, 82.1% success rate.
-- Xander Bogaerts: 20 SB / 2 CS, 90.9% success rate.
-- Manny Machado: 14 SB / 3 CS, 82.4% success rate.
-- Gavin Sheets: 2 SB / 1 CS, 66.7% success rate.
-- Miguel Andujar: 1 SB / 0 CS, 100% success rate.
-- Jackson Merrill: 1 SB / 2 CS, 33.3% success rate.
-- Ty France: 1 SB / 0 CS, 100% success rate.
Three of the Padres' top 1-5 hitters (Tatis, Bogaerts, Machado) carry success rates above 80% on meaningful volume. That is a measurable running game pressure point with Pages behind the plate, especially in close-and-late spots where Leahy is being lifted for the bullpen.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Tonight's defensive alignment per the lineup card: Wetherholt 2B, Burleson 1B, Walker RF, Gorman 3B, Winn SS, Church CF, Saggese LF, Pages C. Winn at SS is the elite glove (0.994 Fld%, 64 DP turned over 129 G). Pages catching at 0.994 Fld%. Burleson at 1B (0.990) is the established sample. The lineup pushes Saggese to LF (no sample in the defense table at LF) and Gorman to 3B (54 G sample, 0.950 Fld% with 6 errors -- the soft spot in the infield alignment). Buehler and Leahy both run roughly 44% GB rates, so balls hit on the ground at the left side of the infield are the play-pattern to watch.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Recent head-to-head: 2025: STL 3-4. 2024: STL 4-3. 2023: STL 3-3. 2022: STL 4-2. The recent four-year sample is essentially a coin flip, with STL slightly ahead.
Ballpark: Petco Park plays as a pitcher-leaning venue historically. Suppressed HR rates and large foul territory both work in the starter's favor regardless of which side is throwing.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
Burleson is the contact anchor: 2025 K% 14.5%, BB% 7.2%. Gorman 2025 K% 33.8% paired with BB% 11.7% is the boom-or-bust profile -- but against Buehler's 2025 vs LHB walk-rate, that BB% becomes a feature, not a flaw. Walker 31.8% K% is the strikeout-vulnerability spot. Below 6% BB% (Pages, Saggese, Church) are the don't-walk hitters who must put balls in play.
Padres
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis | 691 | 129 | 18.7% | 89 | 12.9% |
| Manny Machado | 678 | 131 | 19.3% | 55 | 8.1% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 552 | 94 | 17.0% | 48 | 8.7% |
| Gavin Sheets | 545 | 107 | 19.6% | 44 | 8.1% |
| Ty France | 490 | 83 | 16.9% | 22 | 4.5% |
| Jackson Merrill | 483 | 108 | 22.4% | 33 | 6.8% |
| Miguel Andujar | 341 | 49 | 14.4% | 17 | 5.0% |
Tatis 2025 BB% 12.9% (89 BB on 691 PA) is the disciplined top of the order -- a pitcher's-mistake taker. Andujar 14.4% K% / 5.0% BB% is the aggressive contact bat. Merrill 22.4% K% is the only above-22% strikeout rate in the lineup. France 4.5% BB% is the chase profile to attack with breaking stuff out of the zone. Overall, the Padres lineup has no extreme K-rate weaknesses -- the strikeouts have to be earned, and Leahy's 2025 K/BB ratio of 2.86 is the right tool for that environment.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Gorman's 2025 30.2% GB / 41.7% FB profile is the elevator of the lineup -- against Buehler (2025 GB% 44.4%) the air-ball intent runs into Petco's HR-suppressing fences. Herrera's 52.6% GB rate is the hammer-on-the-ground profile. Church 67.6% GB on a small 37-BIP sample is more noise than signal. Burleson's even 42/33/25 spread is the well-rounded contact profile that travels.
Padres
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | 463 | 41.7% | 32.2% | 26.1% |
| Fernando Tatis | 447 | 51.7% | 28.0% | 20.4% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 395 | 45.3% | 26.8% | 27.8% |
| Gavin Sheets | 371 | 39.4% | 30.7% | 29.9% |
| Ty France | 357 | 48.2% | 25.5% | 26.3% |
| Jackson Merrill | 319 | 40.8% | 32.0% | 27.3% |
| Miguel Andujar | 265 | 49.1% | 28.3% | 22.6% |
The Padres lineup carries above-25% LD% on six of seven names (Bogaerts 27.8%, Sheets 29.9%, Merrill 27.3%, France 26.3%, Machado 26.1%, Tatis 20.4%). Line drives are the most damaging contact pattern, and from 2G we know Padres line drives turn into hits in the .550-.694 range. The pitch-to-contact tendency Leahy carries (22.0% 2025 K%) puts more balls in play, and this lineup is built to punish balls in the air-band between grounder and fly. Strike-throwing low in the zone is the counter pattern.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 126.0 | 92 | 16.3% | 61 | 10.8% | 1.51 |
| Kyle Leahy | 88.0 | 80 | 22.0% | 28 | 7.7% | 2.86 |
2026 to date: Buehler 20.5% K%, 7.9% BB%; Leahy 17.7% K%, 8.6% BB%. 2025 baseline: Buehler 16.3% K%, 10.8% BB%, 1.51 K/BB; Leahy 22.0% K%, 7.7% BB%, 2.86 K/BB. The 2025 K/BB gap is the cleanest separator: Leahy nearly doubles Buehler's command. Buehler's 2025 BB% above 10% is the entry point for free baserunners -- a key marker if the Cardinals' patient bats (Tatis-disciplined-style Burleson 7.2% BB%, Herrera 9.6%, Gorman 11.7%) can extend at-bats.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Key Matchups
Burleson (LHB) vs Buehler. Burleson 2-for-2 career BvP. 2025 vs RHP .296/.353/.478, 419 PA, 15 HR. Buehler 2025 vs LHB .300/.390/.440 (.830 OPS). The matchup tilt the Cardinals' lineup card is engineered around.
Herrera vs Buehler. 1-for-2 with HR in 2 PA BvP. Herrera 2025 vs RHP .268/.343/.399, 10 HR in 328 PA. Hitting second gives him an extra plate appearance in Buehler's vulnerable 2025 TTO1 window (.816 OPS).
Machado vs Leahy. 1-for-3 BvP (small). Machado 2025 vs RHP .279/.332/.440, 15 HR in 500 PA, and homered off Svanson last night. Leahy 2025 vs RHB .238/.270/.319 (.589 OPS) -- the harder side of the platoon for Machado, but Machado has the form to override.
Top-of-order baserunning. Tatis 32 SB / 82.1%, Bogaerts 20 SB / 90.9%, Machado 14 SB / 82.4%. Pages catching at 0.994 Fld% in 110 G handles the receiving, but the SB volume on the Padres' top half is a real pressure point in any close-game scenario.
The X-factor: Buehler's 2025 first pass through the order. 236 PA, .279/.452, .816 OPS, 9 HR. His most vulnerable window -- counter to the usual TTO curve which sees pitchers improve early. If the Cardinals are going to score, innings 1-3 are the most likely runway.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Walker Buehler in their career?
2. How has Kyle Leahy fared against Manny Machado in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Fernando Tatis Jr. in their career?
4. What are Walker Buehler's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Nolan Gorman's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Petco Park in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025