NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 27-12 | - | W10 |
| Cardinals | 23-15 | 3.5 | W2 |
| Brewers | 20-16 | 5.5 | W2 |
| Pirates | 21-18 | 6.0 | L1 |
| Reds | 20-19 | 7.0 | L8 |
NL WEST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 24-14 | - | W2 |
| Padres | 22-16 | 2.0 | L2 |
| D-backs | 17-20 | 6.5 | L3 |
| Rockies | 16-23 | 8.5 | W2 |
| Giants | 15-23 | 9.0 | W1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7 | MIL | Home | L 0-0 |
| May 8 | SD | Away | W 6-0 |
| May 7 | SD | Away | W 2-1 |
| May 6 | MIL | Home | L 2-6 |
| May 4 | MIL | Home | W 6-3 |
| May 3 | LAD | Home | L 1-4 |
| May 2 | LAD | Home | W 3-2 |
| May 1 | LAD | Home | W 7-2 |
| Apr 30 | PIT | Away | W 10-5 |
| Apr 29 | PIT | Away | W 5-4 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Dustin May (R) -- STL
2026 to date: 3-3, 5.15 ERA, 1.53 WHIP across 7 starts (36.2 IP, 25 K, 9 BB, 16.1% K, 5.8% BB). 2025 baseline: 21.1% K, 9.6% BB, 2.20 K/BB across 132.1 IP. The current K rate is well below his 2025 number, and the WHIP signals heavier traffic. May has a stark home/away split historically -- 6.28 ERA on the road vs 3.24 at home -- and tonight he is on the road at Petco.
Randy Vásquez (R) -- SD
2026 to date: 3-1, 3.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP across 7 starts (39.1 IP, 36 K, 13 BB, 22.4% K, 8.1% BB). 2025 baseline: 13.7% K, 9.1% BB, 1.50 K/BB across 133.2 IP. Vásquez's 2026-to-date K rate is well above his 2025 baseline -- a real improvement to track. Career home ERA 3.03 vs road 3.61, so he is in his preferred context tonight.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-05-08)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .321 | .825 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .259 | .832 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .362 | .978 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .262 | .896 |
| 5 | Gorman | 3B | L | .233 | .680 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .229 | .624 |
| 7 | Church | LF | L | .211 | .506 |
| 8 | Pagés | C | R | .160 | .494 |
| 9 | Scott | CF | L | .095 | .326 |
Handedness: 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Pagés), 5 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church, Scott).
Padres (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Johnson | RF | S |
| Tatis | RF | R |
| Fermin | C | R |
| Sheets | 1B | L |
| Merrill | CF | L |
| Machado | 3B | R |
| Andujar | 3B | R |
| Castellanos | RF | R |
| Laureano | LF | R |
| Durán | C | R |
| Song | 3B | L |
| France | 1B | R |
| Bogaerts | SS | R |
Handedness: 9 RHB (Tatis, Fermin, Machado, Andujar, Castellanos, Laureano, Durán, France, Bogaerts), 3 LHB (Sheets, Merrill, Song).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No Phase 2 web search performed for this run -- injuries and roster moves not enumerated. Active rosters carried in the JSON are the source of truth for who is available tonight.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 7 | 7 | 1 | .143 | .143 | .143 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ivan Herrera | 8 | 7 | 3 | .429 | .500 | .571 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Masyn Winn | 7 | 6 | 2 | .333 | .429 | .333 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Victor Scott | 5 | 5 | 1 | .200 | .200 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pedro Pagés | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Alec Burleson (7 PA), Ivan Herrera (8 PA), Masyn Winn (7 PA), Victor Scott (5 PA), Pedro Pagés (4 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), Nolan Gorman (2 PA).
Every Cardinals batter in the BvP table sits below the small-sample threshold, so the .500 lines from Walker and Gorman are noise rather than signal. Herrera (3-for-7 with a walk, .429 AVG) and Winn (2-for-6 with a walk, .333 AVG) carry the most usable history, and both line up with their 2025 vs-RHP profiles. Burleson's 1-for-7 with two strikeouts is the lone red mark, but his 2025 line vs RHP (.296 AVG, .353 OBP, .478 SLG over 419 PA) is the more reliable read. No-data tonight: Wetherholt, Church (Wetherholt has no career PA vs Vásquez; Church does not appear in the BvP rows).
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Vásquez beyond the rows shown.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | 35 | 33 | 9 | .273 | .314 | .515 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Fernando Tatis | 26 | 23 | 6 | .261 | .346 | .435 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 9 | 8 | 2 | .250 | .333 | .375 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ty France | 5 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .400 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Gavin Sheets | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Freddy Fermin | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson Merrill | 3 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Small sample: Xander Bogaerts (9 PA), Ty France (5 PA), Gavin Sheets (3 PA), Bryce Johnson (2 PA), Freddy Fermin (2 PA), Jackson Merrill (3 PA).
Machado is the only opponent bat with a meaningful career sample vs May -- 9-for-33 (.273 AVG, .515 SLG, 2 HR) across 35 PA. He has solved May for power without striking out at an alarming rate (6 K in 35 PA). Tatis is next in volume at 26 PA (.261 AVG, 1 HR, 5 K). Everyone else is below the 10-PA threshold and effectively a coin flip. No-data: Castellanos, Laureano, Andujar, Durán, Song -- they have no career history off May.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs May beyond the rows shown. The roster pool's career sample is concentrated in the Machado-Tatis-Bogaerts trio.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Victor Scott L | 332 | .221 | .310 | .317 | 5 | 31 | 75 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 276 | .225 | .264 | .364 | 9 | 12 | 72 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
Vásquez is RHP, so the 2025 vs-RHP line is the relevant pool tonight. Burleson is the standout: .296/.353/.478 with 15 HR over 419 PA. Herrera (.268/.343/.399) and Winn (.251/.309/.368) are the steady right-handed bats. The two soft spots are Gorman (.201 vs RHP, but 9 HR -- a low-AVG, real-power profile) and Walker (.200 AVG, 94 K). Church's 51 PA is small, but a .114 AVG is a flag regardless.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis R | 516 | .277 | .366 | .466 | 20 | 58 | 100 |
| Manny Machado R | 500 | .279 | .332 | .440 | 15 | 36 | 99 |
| Nick Castellanos R | 412 | .252 | .291 | .405 | 12 | 21 | 86 |
| Gavin Sheets L | 393 | .250 | .323 | .452 | 17 | 34 | 80 |
| Xander Bogaerts R | 389 | .246 | .317 | .368 | 8 | 34 | 70 |
| Ty France R | 351 | .263 | .330 | .349 | 4 | 16 | 60 |
| Ramon Laureano R | 329 | .281 | .340 | .508 | 15 | 22 | 88 |
| Jackson Merrill L | 321 | .279 | .336 | .514 | 15 | 24 | 76 |
| Miguel Andujar R | 250 | .289 | .332 | .427 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| Freddy Fermin R | 246 | .269 | .314 | .366 | 3 | 13 | 43 |
| Bryce Johnson B | 50 | .370 | .408 | .500 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
May is RHP. The Padres' two left-handed power bats jump off this table -- Sheets (.250/.323/.452, 17 HR) and Merrill (.279/.336/.514, 15 HR). Both are matchup-relevant given May's 2025 vs-LHB profile (see 2D). Among the right-handed pool, Tatis (.277/.366/.466, 20 HR), Machado (.279/.332/.440), and Laureano (.281/.340/.508, 15 HR) carry the heaviest production. Andujar's .289 AVG over 250 PA is a useful contact bat off the bench.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | vs LHB | 334 | .261 | .357 | .495 | .852 | 15 | 82 |
| Dustin May | vs RHB | 250 | .256 | .325 | .386 | .711 | 6 | 41 |
| Randy Vásquez | vs LHB | 279 | .264 | .358 | .406 | .764 | 8 | 37 |
| Randy Vásquez | vs RHB | 291 | .232 | .289 | .363 | .652 | 8 | 41 |
Both starters carry classic right-handed pitcher splits, just with different magnitudes. May has a wide vs-LHB gap (.852 OPS, 15 HR) versus a contained vs-RHB profile (.711 OPS, 6 HR) -- with three Padres LHB in the pool (Sheets, Merrill, Song), May's left-handed exposure is the matchup of the night. Vásquez is the inverse story for STL: tougher on RHB (.652 OPS) and softer on LHB (.764 OPS). The Cardinals' 5 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church, Scott) align directly into Vásquez's worse side.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | Away | 258 | 57.1 | 6.28 | 50 | 26 | 12 |
| Dustin May | Home | 326 | 75.0 | 3.24 | 73 | 30 | 9 |
| Randy Vásquez | Away | 273 | 62.1 | 3.61 | 35 | 27 | 8 |
| Randy Vásquez | Home | 297 | 71.1 | 3.03 | 43 | 25 | 8 |
Tonight's game is at Petco Park -- May is pitching away, Vásquez at home. May's career road profile is the more dramatic split: 6.28 ERA away vs 3.24 at home, with 12 HR allowed on 258 batters faced compared to 9 HR on 326 at home. He is in his weaker context tonight. Vásquez's home/away split is mild (3.03 vs 3.61), and he is in his stronger context.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | TTO1 | 227 | .226 | .347 | .652 | 5 | 56 | 23 |
| Dustin May | TTO2 | 220 | .290 | .508 | .878 | 9 | 44 | 17 |
| Dustin May | TTO3 | 137 | .263 | .517 | .882 | 7 | 23 | 16 |
| Randy Vásquez | TTO1 | 249 | .252 | .362 | .691 | 4 | 29 | 24 |
| Randy Vásquez | TTO2 | 228 | .226 | .385 | .674 | 9 | 38 | 15 |
| Randy Vásquez | TTO3 | 93 | .288 | .438 | .825 | 3 | 11 | 13 |
May's 2025 TTO line is the most actionable split in tonight's report. First pass through the order: .226 AVG / .347 SLG / .652 OPS -- a top-shelf opener. Second pass: .290 AVG / .508 SLG / .878 OPS -- a meaningful TTO2 cliff that opens up innings 4-6. Third pass: .882 OPS continues the damage. Vásquez's 2025 TTO line holds up better through the second pass (.674 OPS) and only breaks on the third pass (.825 OPS) -- innings 7+ is where the Cardinals lineup gets its second look.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate is roughly 68-72%. Romero's 88.5% on 26 inherited runners is elite firefighter work -- he is the arm to enter with traffic. Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) sit well below average and turn inherited mess into runs. Leahy (62.1%) is below league average but above the danger band. Which reliever the Cardinals deploy with runners on -- Romero or one of the lower-strand arms -- is a swing variable in the middle innings.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 372 | 44.1% | 28.2% | 26.6% |
| Randy Vásquez | 417 | 41.5% | 37.2% | 21.1% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- SD
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Andujar | .315 | .683 | .133 |
| Xander Bogaerts | .302 | .509 | .113 |
| Nick Castellanos | .222 | .569 | .171 |
| Freddy Fermin | .276 | .625 | .076 |
| Ty France | .192 | .660 | .143 |
| Bryce Johnson | .364 | .750 | .111 |
| Ramon Laureano | .274 | .667 | .110 |
| Manny Machado | .238 | .694 | .081 |
| Jackson Merrill | .323 | .552 | .098 |
| Gavin Sheets | .240 | .523 | .114 |
| Fernando Tatis | .294 | .681 | .032 |
May is a moderate ground-ball pitcher (44.1% career GB%) with a healthy line-drive rate (26.6%). Vásquez tilts more toward fly balls (37.2% FB% vs 41.5% GB%). The Padres' line-drive results are dangerous across the board -- Machado .694 LD AVG, Tatis .681, Andujar .683, Laureano .667, France .660. When a Padre hitter squares one up, it lands. Tatis's .032 fly-ball AVG is striking: he does most of his damage on grounders (.294) and liners, not fly balls. Sheets and Merrill, both LHB, sit in the .523-.552 range on liners.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 11 | 56.0 | 4.98 | .255 | -- | -- |
| Dalton Rushing | 6 | 34.2 | 3.89 | .227 | -- | -- |
| Carlos Narváez | 4 | 21.0 | 4.71 | .299 | -- | -- |
| Austin Barnes | 2 | 12.1 | 4.38 | .250 | -- | -- |
| Connor Wong | 2 | 5.1 | 6.75 | .348 | -- | -- |
The catchers above reflect May's prior tenure with the Dodgers (Smith, Rushing, Barnes) and Red Sox (Narváez, Wong) -- none of them are on tonight's Cardinals active roster. The scheduled catcher tonight is Pedro Pagés (R), who has 0 IP paired with May in this dataset. That is itself a scouting angle: an unfamiliar battery means pop-time calibration and signal sequencing are still being worked out, which can show up as missed mistake-call sequences in the first pass through the order. May's prior best pairing by ERA was Rushing (3.89 ERA over 34.2 IP).
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Tatis -- 32 SB, 7 CS career, 82.1% success. The signature speed threat in the Padres roster pool tonight.
Bogaerts -- 20 SB, 2 CS career, 90.9% success. Quietly elite efficiency.
Machado -- 14 SB, 3 CS career, 82.4% success. A real running threat for a third baseman.
Castellanos -- 4 SB, 0 CS career, 100% success on small volume.
Laureano -- 7 SB, 4 CS career, 63.6% success. The volume runner whose efficiency should make him a candidate to be tested.
Johnson -- 4 SB, 1 CS career, 80.0% success.
Sheets -- 2 SB, 1 CS career, 66.7% success.
Andujar -- 1 SB, 0 CS career.
France -- 1 SB, 0 CS career.
Merrill -- 1 SB, 2 CS career, 33.3% success.
Fermin -- 1 SB, 2 CS career, 33.3% success.
Tonight's catcher Pagés has a fresh battery with May (no prior IP pairing in the data) -- pop-time calibration is a real variable against Tatis and Bogaerts, the highest-volume / highest-efficiency runners in the pool.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott | CF | 136 | 3 | 6 | 0.982 |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Victor Scott | RF | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Victor Scott | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Tonight's alignment per the lineup card: Wetherholt 2B, Burleson 1B, Gorman 3B, Winn SS, Walker RF, Scott CF, Church LF, Pagés C. Wetherholt does not appear in the fielding sample at all -- early-career, so his 2B work is unmeasured here. Winn at SS (.994 fld%, 64 DP) and Pagés behind the plate (.994 fld%) are the steady infielders. Gorman starts at 3B; his 3B sample (54 G, .950 fld%, 6 errors) is the largest single-position group in his table, but the error rate is the soft spot in the infield. Walker at RF (.981 fld%) handles the corner. May's 44.1% career GB rate funnels traffic to the Wetherholt-Winn-Gorman infield -- range and clean exchanges matter on that ground-ball mix.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Petco Park has historically played as a pitcher-leaning venue. Recent head-to-head: Cardinals 3-4 in 2025, 4-3 in 2024, 3-3 in 2023, 4-2 in 2022 -- a tightly even rivalry over four seasons. Tonight is Game 3 of a 4-game set with the series knotted at 0-0 in series wins per the JSON; STL has won the first two games of the trip per the recent results table.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Victor Scott | 463 | 111 | 24.0% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
2025 K% extremes on the Cardinals side: Gorman 33.8% and Walker 31.8% sit well above the league's 22.1% benchmark -- contact is the trade-off for their power. Burleson's 14.5% is the elite contact line. On the BB side, Pagés (4.9%) and Church (4.6%) are below the 6% threshold, which limits their on-base ceiling against a pitcher (Vásquez) who runs a 9.1% BB rate of his own.
Padres
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis | 691 | 129 | 18.7% | 89 | 12.9% |
| Manny Machado | 678 | 131 | 19.3% | 55 | 8.1% |
| Nick Castellanos | 589 | 133 | 22.6% | 32 | 5.4% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 552 | 94 | 17.0% | 48 | 8.7% |
| Gavin Sheets | 545 | 107 | 19.6% | 44 | 8.1% |
| Ty France | 490 | 83 | 16.9% | 22 | 4.5% |
| Ramon Laureano | 488 | 119 | 24.4% | 35 | 7.2% |
| Jackson Merrill | 483 | 108 | 22.4% | 33 | 6.8% |
| Freddy Fermin | 347 | 65 | 18.7% | 19 | 5.5% |
| Miguel Andujar | 341 | 49 | 14.4% | 17 | 5.0% |
| Bryce Johnson | 84 | 19 | 22.6% | 3 | 3.6% |
Tatis at 12.9% BB is the standout patience profile in the Padres pool, and pairs with above-average power for a high on-base ceiling. Andujar's 2025 14.4% K is elite contact (low BB% 5.0% the trade-off). The lineup pool's overall K profile is balanced -- no extreme high-K bat -- which constrains May's 21.1% 2025 K rate as a path to clean innings.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Victor Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Gorman's 2025 30.2% GB / 41.7% FB profile is the loudest contrast in the Cardinals lineup -- a true fly-ball hitter whose contact lifts. Herrera (52.6% GB) and Walker (48.9% GB) live on the ground. Vásquez's 41.5% career GB% is the matchup pivot: his fly-ball share (37.2%) leaves room for Gorman's profile to do damage if he squares up.
Padres
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | 463 | 41.7% | 32.2% | 26.1% |
| Fernando Tatis | 447 | 51.7% | 28.0% | 20.4% |
| Nick Castellanos | 409 | 41.8% | 31.5% | 26.7% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 395 | 45.3% | 26.8% | 27.8% |
| Gavin Sheets | 371 | 39.4% | 30.7% | 29.9% |
| Ty France | 357 | 48.2% | 25.5% | 26.3% |
| Jackson Merrill | 319 | 40.8% | 32.0% | 27.3% |
| Ramon Laureano | 298 | 45.3% | 27.5% | 27.2% |
| Miguel Andujar | 265 | 49.1% | 28.3% | 22.6% |
| Freddy Fermin | 251 | 46.2% | 31.5% | 22.3% |
| Bryce Johnson | 51 | 43.1% | 17.6% | 39.2% |
The Padres pool clusters around a 40-49% 2025 GB rate -- no extreme outliers either way except Tatis (51.7% GB), whose ground-ball lean meets May's 44.1% career GB% in a true ground-ball collision. Sheets (29.9% LD), Bogaerts (27.8% LD), Castellanos (26.7% LD), and Merrill (27.3% LD) carry the heaviest 2025 line-drive shares -- their career LD-AVG (Section 2G) sits in the .509-.569 range, which is where damage gets done off May.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 132.1 | 123 | 21.1% | 56 | 9.6% | 2.20 |
| Randy Vásquez | 133.2 | 78 | 13.7% | 52 | 9.1% | 1.50 |
May's 2025 K/BB ratio of 2.20 is workmanlike but not dominant; his 9.6% BB% is above league average (9.5%). 2026 to date: 16.1% K%, 5.8% BB%. 2025 baseline: 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%. Strikeouts are down, walks are way down -- a different shape so far this year. Vásquez's 2025 K/BB ratio of 1.50 is below the league standard, and his 13.7% K% is well under the 22.1% league benchmark. 2026 to date: 22.4% K%, 8.1% BB% -- a pronounced lift over his 2025 baseline that is the most interesting under-the-hood storyline in tonight's pitcher matchup.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Burleson vs Vásquez. Burleson's 2025 vs-RHP line (.296/.353/.478, 15 HR over 419 PA) is the cleanest LHB-vs-RHP edge in the Cardinals pool, and Vásquez allows .764 OPS to LHB vs .652 to RHB (Section 2D). The 1-for-7 career BvP is too small to override the platoon read.
Machado vs May. 9-for-33 (.273 AVG, .515 SLG, 2 HR) over 35 career PA -- the largest opponent-side BvP sample in tonight's slate. Machado has solved May for power (Section 2B) and his 19.3% 2025 K% means May's whiff path is narrow. The volume here outweighs May's vs-RHB .711 OPS aggregate.
May TTO2 window vs SD lineup. Innings 4-6 are May's vulnerability: .290 AVG, .508 SLG, .878 OPS on the second pass through the order in 2025 (Section 2E). Combined with his 6.28 career road ERA at Petco, the middle innings are where the Padres' lineup most likely produces its scoring window.
Watchlist:
-- Sheets and Merrill vs May. Two LHB power profiles facing May's worst-handedness side (.852 OPS allowed to LHB in 2025, 15 HR). Watch innings 4-6 specifically.
-- Tatis SB threat with fresh battery. Tatis 32 SB / 7 CS career (82.1%); Pagés has 0 prior IP paired with May. Pop-time and signal sequencing are not yet calibrated.
-- Bullpen fork. Romero 88.5% strand vs Svanson 50.0% on 26 inherited runners each (Section 2F). Which arm gets called with traffic decides the middle-inning math.
-- Vásquez K-rate lift. 2026 to date 22.4% K% vs 2025 baseline 13.7% -- a real change worth tracking. If it holds, the Cardinals' contact assumption against Vásquez gets reset.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Randy Vásquez in their career?
2. How has Dustin May fared against Manny Machado in their career?
3. How has Jackson Merrill performed against Dustin May in their career?
4. What are Dustin May's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Gavin Sheets's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Petco Park in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025