NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Cubs26-12-W9
Cardinals22-153.5W1
Pirates21-175.0W2
Brewers19-165.5W1
Reds20-186.0L7

NL WEST STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Dodgers23-14-W1
Padres22-151.0L1
D-backs17-195.5L2
Rockies15-238.5W1
Giants14-239.0L2

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jul 7MILHomeL 0-0
May 7SDAwayW 2-1
May 6MILHomeL 2-6
May 4MILHomeW 6-3
May 3LADHomeL 1-4
May 2LADHomeW 3-2
May 1LADHomeW 7-2
Apr 30PITAwayW 10-5
Apr 29PITAwayW 5-4
Apr 28PITAwayW 11-7

STARTING PITCHERS

Cardinals: Michael McGreevy (R)

2026 to date: 2-2, 2.52 ERA across 7 starts (39.1 IP, 28 H, 5 HR, 24 K, 8 BB, 0.92 WHIP). 14.5% K%, 5.4% BB%, 52.9% GB%. Strike-thrower profile -- low walk rate, ground-ball lean, modest miss rate. Tonight's matchup type is the one that flatters him: away from Busch (3.55 ERA, 45.2 IP) facing a heavy right-handed lineup that he holds to a .225 / .255 / .325 line in 2025.

Padres: Griffin Canning (R)

2026 to date: 0-0, 1.80 ERA across 1 start (5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 HR, 7 K, 3 BB, 1.20 WHIP). The 36.8% K% and 15.8% BB% are tiny-sample numbers from a single outing -- the 2025 baseline is 21.3% K%, 10.7% BB%, 2.00 K/BB. He misses bats at a real rate but walks too many; the 2026 walk rate is the watch number tonight.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-05-07)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.296.787
2HerreraDHR.259.832
3Burleson1BL.362.978
4WalkerRFR.262.873
5Gorman3BL.220.666
6WinnSSR.235.649
7ChurchLFL.211.506
8PagésCR.160.494
9ScottCFL.100.308

Handedness: 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Pagés), 5 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church, Scott).

Padres (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

PlayerPosBats
JohnsonRFS
TatisRFR
FerminCR
Sheets1BL
MerrillCFL
Machado3BR
Andujar3BR
CastellanosRFR
LaureanoLFR
DuránCR
Song3BL
France1BR
BogaertsSSR

Handedness: 9 RHB (Tatis, Fermin, Machado, Andujar, Castellanos, Laureano, Durán, France, Bogaerts), 3 LHB (Sheets, Merrill, Song).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster move updates are carried in tonight's data feed. Active rosters are 26 players for both clubs per the statsapi pull.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson662.333.333.333000
Nolan Gorman550.000.000.000001
Pedro Pagés220.000.000.000002
Ivan Herrera321.500.667.500010
Victor Scott221.500.500.500001
Jordan Walker220.000.000.000001
Masyn Winn210.000.500.000010

Small sample: Alec Burleson (6 PA), Nolan Gorman (5 PA), Pedro Pagés (2 PA), Ivan Herrera (3 PA), Victor Scott (2 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), Masyn Winn (2 PA).

Burleson's 6 PA is the only sample with any analytical weight, and his .333 line at least matches his 2025 vs-RHP profile rather than contradicting it. Gorman's 0-for-5 with one strikeout is the next-largest sample and is a quiet warning for a hitter whose 2025 vs-RHP line is .201. Wetherholt and Church do not appear -- no career BvP history against Canning. The Cardinals are essentially facing Canning fresh.

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Canning in tonight's dataset.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Manny Machado664.667.6671.000000
Jackson Merrill661.167.167.667101
Xander Bogaerts662.333.333.333000
Fernando Tatis651.200.333.400011
Miguel Andujar332.667.6671.000000
Ramon Laureano331.333.3331.000001
Gavin Sheets331.333.333.333000
Freddy Fermin220.000.000.000000

Small sample: Manny Machado (6 PA), Jackson Merrill (6 PA), Xander Bogaerts (6 PA), Fernando Tatis (6 PA), Miguel Andujar (3 PA), Ramon Laureano (3 PA), Gavin Sheets (3 PA), Freddy Fermin (2 PA).

Machado is 4-for-6 with zero strikeouts and a 1.000 SLG -- the centerpiece of the danger profile. Merrill's 1-for-6 conceals an HR (.667 SLG); contact has been rare but loud. Andujar's 2-for-3 and Laureano's 1-for-3 with extra-base power both come at three-PA samples and are flags rather than verdicts. Tatis is 1-for-5 with a walk -- the line is light, but the 2025 vs-RHP track record (.277 / .366 / .466) is the more reliable read. Bogaerts is 2-for-6 (.333) with no strikeouts and put the only Padres run on the board last night.

Danger profile: Machado's 4-for-6 (.667 AVG, 1.000 SLG, 6 PA) sits below the formal BVP danger threshold (10 PA), but the slug profile against McGreevy plus the 2025 vs-RHP baseline (.279 / .332 / .440 in 500 PA) earns the at-bat-by-at-bat treatment.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371
Victor Scott L332.221.310.31753175
Ivan Herrera R328.268.343.399102466
Nolan Gorman L309.201.294.349937111
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194
Pedro Pagés R276.225.264.36491272
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314

Canning is right-handed and the Cardinals send 5 LHB to the plate (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church, Scott). Burleson is the standout -- .296 / .353 / .478 in 419 PA in 2025 -- and the only LHB whose slug holds up. Gorman's .201 / .294 / .349 vs RHP shows on-base via walks but a contact problem the Padres can lean on. Church's 51-PA 2025 vs-RHP line (.114 / .216 / .182) is the lineup's softest hand. The 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Pagés) cluster between .200 and .268 in 2025 vs RHP -- Walker's .200 is the lineup's other red flag.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Fernando Tatis R516.277.366.4662058100
Manny Machado R500.279.332.440153699
Nick Castellanos R412.252.291.405122186
Gavin Sheets L393.250.323.452173480
Xander Bogaerts R389.246.317.36883470
Ty France R351.263.330.34941660
Ramon Laureano R329.281.340.508152288
Jackson Merrill L321.279.336.514152476
Miguel Andujar R250.289.332.42761533
Freddy Fermin R246.269.314.36631343
Bryce Johnson B50.370.408.5001012

McGreevy is right-handed, and the Padres' RHP-facing damage profile is concentrated in three bats: Tatis (20 HR, .466 SLG), Machado (15 HR, .440 SLG), and Laureano (15 HR, .508 SLG). Merrill's left-handed line vs RHP (.279 / .336 / .514) is the lineup's other slug threat -- 15 HR in 290 AB. Sheets adds another LHB power source (.452 SLG, 17 HR). The walks lean Padres: Tatis 58 BB and Bogaerts 34 BB give the lineup an on-base floor that does not depend on any single hot bat.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Griffin Canningvs LHB172.243.331.368.699541
Griffin Canningvs RHB156.236.310.357.667329
Michael McGreevyvs LHB190.318.368.543.911927
Michael McGreevyvs RHB210.225.255.325.580331

McGreevy carries a deep reverse split: .580 OPS vs RHB versus .911 OPS vs LHB. The Padres' projected pool is 9 RHB, 3 LHB, 1 SHB -- exactly the matchup type that flatters him. The three Padres LHB (Sheets, Merrill, Song) are where the slug risk concentrates if a left-handed bat starts. Canning's split is muted -- .699 OPS vs LHB, .667 vs RHB -- but he walks LHB at 11.6% and RHB at 9.6%; the Cardinals' 5 LHB lineup gets the slightly better walk path.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Griffin CanningAway15837.12.8933135
Griffin CanningHome17039.03.2337223
Michael McGreevyAway18845.23.552496
Michael McGreevyHome21250.05.2234116

Tonight's game is at Petco Park -- McGreevy pitching away, Canning pitching home. McGreevy has the wider gap: 3.55 ERA away (45.2 IP, 9 BB) versus 5.22 at home, a substantial road-leaning split. Canning's home/away ERA gap is narrower (2.89 away vs 3.23 home), but he walks more at home (22 BB / 39.0 IP) than away (13 BB / 37.1 IP) -- the Cardinals get the version of Canning that gives up the most free passes.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Griffin CanningTTO1144.267.374.70733513
Griffin CanningTTO2129.177.248.52112715
Griffin CanningTTO355.313.6041.004487
Michael McGreevyTTO1154.282.465.7925228
Michael McGreevyTTO2152.271.417.7154146
Michael McGreevyTTO394.241.379.6773226

Canning's 2025 second pass through the order is a wall (.177 / .521 OPS, 27 K in 129 PA), but the third pass blows up to .313 / 1.004 OPS with 4 HR in just 55 PA. The second-pass dominance helps the Padres in innings 4-6; the third-pass cliff is the Cardinals' counter-window in innings 7+. McGreevy's progression runs the other way: 2025 TTO1 .282 / .792 is his most-vulnerable pass; TTO2 settles to .271 / .715; TTO3 tightens to .241 / .677. He gets stronger as the game goes on, which fits a pitcher carrying a 14.5% K%, 5.0% BB% profile.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5% on 26 IR) and McGreevy himself (100% on 3 IR -- tiny sample) are the high-leverage cleanup options. Svanson (50.0% on 26 IR) and Graceffo (54.5% on 11 IR) are the soft spots. Leahy at 62.1% is below league average. Whichever of Romero or Svanson enters with runners on tonight will likely shape the middle innings more than any single batter matchup.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Griffin Canning21552.1%25.1%21.9%
Michael McGreevy30749.2%25.7%24.4%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- SD

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Miguel Andujar.315.683.133
Xander Bogaerts.302.509.113
Nick Castellanos.222.569.171
Freddy Fermin.276.625.076
Ty France.192.660.143
Bryce Johnson.364.750.111
Ramon Laureano.274.667.110
Manny Machado.238.694.081
Jackson Merrill.323.552.098
Gavin Sheets.240.523.114
Fernando Tatis.294.681.032

Both starters are ground-ball leaning (Canning 52.1% career GB, McGreevy 49.2%), so the at-bats that decide tonight will be mostly hit on the ground. The SD bats most punished by ground balls are France (.192 GB AVG), Castellanos (.222), Machado (.238), and Sheets (.240). The exceptions are Merrill (.323 GB AVG) and Tatis (.294) -- both manage productive ground contact. Line drives are universally damaging across the SD lineup; minimizing barrels is the watch metric.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Pedro Pagés1480.24.24.266----
Jimmy Crooks28.29.35.385----
Yohel Pozo15.20.00.056----

Tonight's catcher is Pedro Pages, who is on the active roster and is McGreevy's most-paired catcher in this dataset (14 G, 80.2 IP, 4.24 ERA, .266 AVG allowed). It is the familiar battery -- signal sequencing and pop-time calibration are set. Crooks (8.2 IP, 9.35 ERA) and Pozo (5.2 IP, 0.00 ERA) are tiny secondary samples that do not change the night's setup.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

SD running threats vs the Pages-McGreevy battery:

- Fernando Tatis: 32 SB / 7 CS, 82.1% career success rate.

- Xander Bogaerts: 20 SB / 2 CS, 90.9% career success rate -- the lineup's most efficient runner.

- Manny Machado: 14 SB / 3 CS, 82.4% career success rate.

- Ramon Laureano: 7 SB / 4 CS, 63.6% career success rate -- the lineup's least efficient regular runner.

- Bryce Johnson: 4 SB / 1 CS, 80.0% career success rate.

- Nick Castellanos: 4 SB / 0 CS, 100.0% career success rate (low-volume but clean).

- Gavin Sheets: 2 SB / 1 CS, 66.7% career.

- Miguel Andujar: 1 SB / 0 CS, 100.0% career.

- Ty France: 1 SB / 0 CS, 100.0% career.

- Jackson Merrill: 1 SB / 2 CS, 33.3% career.

- Freddy Fermin: 1 SB / 2 CS, 33.3% career.

Watch the top of the order: Tatis and Bogaerts are the live threats, Machado is selective but effective. Laureano's 63.6% rate is exploitable if he reads McGreevy's slide-step.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Victor ScottCF136360.982
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Pedro PagésC110650.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Nolan Gorman3B541160.950
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Nolan Gorman2B28910.990
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Ivan HerreraC14010.989
Nolan Gorman1B7401.000
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Victor ScottRF7001.000
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Victor ScottLF4001.000
Ivan HerreraLF4001.000
Pedro Pagés1B2101.000
Pedro Pagés2B1001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Tonight's projected defensive alignment carries Wetherholt at 2B, Burleson at 1B, Walker in RF, Gorman at 3B, Winn at SS, Church in LF, Pages at C, and Scott in CF. Winn at SS (.994 fld%, 64 DP in 129 G) and Pages behind the plate (.994 fld%, 110 G) are the alignment's anchor points -- both starters are ground-ball leaning, so SS-2B and the C-glove will see the highest volume. Scott in CF (.982 fld%, 136 G) handles the heaviest range zone behind a fly-tolerant matchup. Gorman's 3B sample is the alignment's softest spot (.950 fld%, 6 E in 54 G); against Tatis and Machado on the ground, it is the position to watch.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Tonight's game is at Petco Park, which historically plays as a pitcher-leaning venue. Recent head-to-head: 2025 Cardinals 3-4, 2024 4-3, 2023 3-3, 2022 4-2 -- a near-even split across four years.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Victor Scott46311124.0%429.1%
Ivan Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Nolan Gorman40213633.8%4711.7%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Pedro Pagés38910727.5%194.9%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%

Three Cardinals carry 2025 K rates above 25% (Gorman 33.8%, Walker 31.8%, Church 27.7%, Pages 27.5%) -- a high-strikeout cluster Canning's 21.3% K% can lean on. Burleson is the lineup's contact anchor (14.5% K%); his 7.2% BB% is below the group walk rate but his 2025 OBP profile is built on hits, not walks.

Padres

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Fernando Tatis69112918.7%8912.9%
Manny Machado67813119.3%558.1%
Nick Castellanos58913322.6%325.4%
Xander Bogaerts5529417.0%488.7%
Gavin Sheets54510719.6%448.1%
Ty France4908316.9%224.5%
Ramon Laureano48811924.4%357.2%
Jackson Merrill48310822.4%336.8%
Freddy Fermin3476518.7%195.5%
Miguel Andujar3414914.4%175.0%
Bryce Johnson841922.6%33.6%

Tatis is the on-base anchor (12.9% BB% in 2025) and Bogaerts adds another patient bat (8.7% BB%). The K profile is moderate -- only Laureano (24.4%) sits above 23% -- so McGreevy's contact-driven 14.5% K% will not generate volume strikeouts; he will need defense and ground-ball outs. France (4.5%) and Castellanos (5.4%) are the lineup's least-walked bats and the cleanest paths through the order at-bat-by-at-bat.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Ivan Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Victor Scott25940.2%32.0%27.8%
Pedro Pagés24344.9%30.9%24.3%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nolan Gorman19930.2%41.7%28.1%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%

Canning's 2025 GB profile is the heavy lean (52.1% career, 50.0% in 2026). Cardinals bats with a matching ground-ball tendency -- Herrera 52.6%, Walker 48.9%, Pages 44.9%, Burleson 42.0% -- will see most balls in play diverted to the SD infield. Gorman is the inverse profile (30.2% GB, 41.7% FB) -- if he gets elevated, that is the lineup's most likely extra-base path.

Padres

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Manny Machado46341.7%32.2%26.1%
Fernando Tatis44751.7%28.0%20.4%
Nick Castellanos40941.8%31.5%26.7%
Xander Bogaerts39545.3%26.8%27.8%
Gavin Sheets37139.4%30.7%29.9%
Ty France35748.2%25.5%26.3%
Jackson Merrill31940.8%32.0%27.3%
Ramon Laureano29845.3%27.5%27.2%
Miguel Andujar26549.1%28.3%22.6%
Freddy Fermin25146.2%31.5%22.3%
Bryce Johnson5143.1%17.6%39.2%

McGreevy's 2025 batted-ball profile (49.2% GB) lines up against an SD lineup that has six bats above 45% GB (Tatis 51.7%, Andujar 49.1%, France 48.2%, Fermin 46.2%, Bogaerts 45.3%, Laureano 45.3%). Machado (41.7% GB) is the lineup's most balanced bat, which makes his career LD AVG (.694) the most exploitable damage path. Tatis's 51.7% GB rate plus a 2025 line-drive AVG of .681 is the on-the-ground threat to track.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Michael McGreevy95.25814.5%205.0%2.90
Griffin Canning76.17021.3%3510.7%2.00

McGreevy: 2026 to date 14.5% K%, 5.4% BB% (essentially identical to his 2025 baseline of 14.5% K%, 5.0% BB%, 2.90 K/BB). The walk floor is the strength -- one walk per 20 batters faced. Canning: 2025 baseline 21.3% K%, 10.7% BB%, 2.00 K/BB. Real swing-and-miss but a walk every 9-10 hitters. The two starters cut a clean contrast: McGreevy throws strikes and lets contact decide, Canning generates whiffs but pays in free passes.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Manny Machado vs McGreevy. 4-for-6 career with zero strikeouts and a 1.000 SLG. The PA is small but the pattern is consistent with Machado's 2025 vs-RHP profile (.279 / .332 / .440 in 500 PA). McGreevy is a 49.2% GB pitcher and Machado's 41.7% GB rate is the lineup's least-grounded -- the at-bats most likely to leave the infield are these.

Burleson vs Canning. 2-for-6 in the only meaningful career BvP sample (.333 AVG) and a .296 / .353 / .478 line vs RHP across 419 PA in 2025. Canning's vs-LHB walk rate is the soft spot (11.6% in 2025), so Burleson's 7.2% BB% may understate the on-base path tonight.

McGreevy reverse split vs SD's right-handed core. Tatis (.277 / .366 / .466 vs RHP), Castellanos (.252 / .291 / .405), and Bogaerts (.246 / .317 / .368) all hit RHP at or below McGreevy's 2025 vs-RHB allowed line (.225 / .255 / .325). The lineup type is in the Cardinals' favor; Machado is the spoiler.

Watchlist. Canning's 2026 walk rate (15.8% on 5 IP, vs 10.7% 2025 baseline) -- if it carries, the Cardinals can run a count-pressure offense without slugging; Bullpen fork between Romero (88.5% IR strand) and Svanson (50.0%) -- whoever enters with runners on shapes the middle innings; Bryce Johnson .370 / .408 / .500 vs RHP in 50 PA in 2025 -- a tiny but emphatic switch-hit threat off the bench; Pages-McGreevy familiar battery (14 G, 80.2 IP) -- signal sequencing is set, hard contact is the variable.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Griffin Canning in their career?

2. How has Michael McGreevy fared against Manny Machado in their career?

3. How has Xander Bogaerts performed against JoJo Romero in their career?

4. What are Griffin Canning's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Manny Machado's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Petco Park in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025