NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

Team	W-L	GB	Strk
Cubs	24-12	-	W7
Cardinals	21-14	2.5	W1
Reds	20-16	4.0	L5
Brewers	18-16	5.0	L2
Pirates	19-17	5.0	L1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

Date	Opp	H/A	Result
Jul 7	MIL	Home	L 0-0
May 4	MIL	Home	W 6-3
May 3	LAD	Home	L 1-4
May 2	LAD	Home	W 3-2
May 1	LAD	Home	W 7-2
Apr 30	PIT	Away	W 10-5
Apr 29	PIT	Away	W 5-4
Apr 28	PIT	Away	W 11-7
Apr 27	PIT	Away	W 4-2
Apr 26	SEA	Home	L 2-3

STARTING PITCHERS

Andre Pallante (R) -- Cardinals

2026 to date: 3-2, 3.73 ERA in 31.1 IP across 6 starts. 26 K, 14 BB, 1.31 WHIP, 60.9% GB rate, 4 HR allowed. 2025 baseline: 162.2 IP, 1.79 K/BB ratio, 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%. Pallante's 2025 home/away pattern leans road-friendly (4.89 ERA away, 5.42 home), and Busch is the venue today.

Brandon Sproat (R) -- Brewers

2026 to date: 0-2, 6.75 ERA in 26.2 IP across 4 starts. 25 K, 15 BB, 1.61 WHIP, 7 HR allowed, 44.7% GB rate. 2025 baseline: 20.2 IP, 2.43 K/BB ratio, 20.2% K%, 8.3% BB%. The HR rate this year is the loudest line in his profile -- and his 13.0% BB% in 2026 says command remains the variable.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-05-05)

#	Player	Pos	Bats	2026 RISP AVG	2026 RISP OPS
1	Wetherholt	2B	L	.296	.787
2	Herrera	DH	R	.269	.859
3	Burleson	1B	L	.372	1.022
4	Walker	RF	R	.262	.860
5	Gorman	3B	L	.231	.668
6	Winn	SS	R	.233	.600
7	Church	LF	L	.235	.564
8	Pagés	C	R	.174	.535
9	Scott	CF	L	.100	.308

Handedness: 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Pagés), 5 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church, Scott).

Brewers (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

Player	Pos	Bats
Vaughn	1B	R
Lockridge	LF	R
Turang	2B	L
Hamilton	3B	L
Mitchell	CF	L
Sánchez	C	R
Chourio	CF	R
Bauers	1B	L
Ortiz	SS	R
Rengifo	3B	S
Frelick	RF	L
Black	3B	L
Contreras	C	R

Handedness: 6 RHB (Vaughn, Lockridge, Sánchez, Chourio, Ortiz, Contreras), 6 LHB (Turang, Hamilton, Mitchell, Bauers, Frelick, Black).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move notes retrieved for this run. Confirm active-roster status via team feeds before publish.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

Sproat is a young arm with no recorded BvP history against any Cardinal -- the lineup is essentially facing him blind. Read TTO and platoon tables instead for the matchup signal.

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Sproat.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Player	PA	AB	H	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Brice Turang	13	13	5	.385	.385	.462	0	0	1
William Contreras	13	12	3	.250	.308	.583	1	1	1
Sal Frelick	11	9	1	.111	.273	.222	0	2	0
Jackson Chourio	11	5	3	.600	.727	1.000	0	5	1
Garrett Mitchell	6	5	2	.400	.500	.400	0	1	1
Joey Ortiz	6	4	1	.250	.250	.250	0	0	0
Jake Bauers	5	3	1	.333	.600	.667	0	2	2
Gary Sanchez	2	2	1	.500	.500	.500	0	0	0
David Hamilton	2	2	1	.500	.500	.500	0	0	1

Small sample: Garrett Mitchell (6 PA), Joey Ortiz (6 PA), Jake Bauers (5 PA), Gary Sanchez (2 PA), David Hamilton (2 PA).

Two real samples (Turang and Contreras at 13 PA each) and one outlier (Chourio at 11 PA, .600 AVG / 1.000 SLG). Turang has put the ball in play every time but never walked; Contreras has the only home run in the table. The rest are 6 PA or fewer and should be read as noise.

Bench note: Bauers, Sanchez, Hamilton, Mitchell, and Ortiz are all bench-leaning options for tonight's lineup with thin BvP samples (2-6 PA). No high-leverage matchup history beyond the starters.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Alec Burleson L	419	.296	.353	.478	15	32	59
Masyn Winn R	374	.251	.309	.368	7	23	71
Victor Scott L	332	.221	.310	.317	5	31	75
Ivan Herrera R	328	.268	.343	.399	10	24	66
Nolan Gorman L	309	.201	.294	.349	9	37	111
Jordan Walker R	289	.200	.263	.291	4	21	94
Pedro Pagés R	276	.225	.264	.364	9	12	72
Nathan Church L	51	.114	.216	.182	1	3	14

Sproat is a RHP, so the entire 2025 vs RHP table is in play. Burleson is the standout (.296 / .353 / .478, 15 HR), and Herrera and Pages give the right-handed half real SLG against righties (.399 and .364 respectively). Gorman and Walker carry the K risk -- both struggled to hit RHP in 2025 (.201 and .200 AVG), and Sproat's 20.2% K% is enough to extend that pattern.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
William Contreras R	502	.263	.349	.409	14	59	92
Brice Turang L	489	.274	.352	.447	16	53	117
Jackson Chourio R	464	.249	.283	.435	16	20	91
Sal Frelick L	442	.278	.342	.421	12	38	59
Luis Rengifo B	440	.241	.296	.325	6	30	84
Joey Ortiz R	380	.203	.261	.272	5	26	57
Andrew Vaughn R	335	.227	.272	.385	12	19	64
Jake Bauers L	214	.244	.360	.428	8	31	56
David Hamilton L	174	.203	.263	.354	6	13	41
Brandon Lockridge R	77	.246	.289	.275	0	4	19
Gary Sanchez R	59	.245	.322	.491	4	2	16
Garrett Mitchell L	54	.208	.278	.333	0	5	21
Tyler Black L	13	.250	.538	.375	0	5	1

Pallante is a RHP, so the 2025 vs RHP table is the right read here. Turang (.274 / .352 / .447, 16 HR), Frelick (.278 / .342 / .421), and Contreras (.263 / .349 / .409, 14 HR) lead the lineup pool against righties. Chourio's 2025 line (.249 / .283 / .435 with 16 HR but only 20 BB in 464 PA) is the SLG-first profile -- and the BvP table above suggests he is also walking against Pallante specifically.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Pitcher	vs	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	K
Andre Pallante	vs LHB	347	.266	.329	.434	.700	10	60
Andre Pallante	vs RHB	368	.275	.345	.429	.704	11	51
Brandon Sproat	vs LHB	42	.282	.333	.436	.718	0	9
Brandon Sproat	vs RHB	42	.200	.310	.257	.457	0	8

Pallante's 2025 platoon is essentially neutral -- .700 OPS vs LHB, .704 vs RHB. The Brewers' 6/6 RHB-LHB lineup pool gets no exploitable handedness lever against him. Sproat, on a 42-42 PA sample, runs a reverse split: better vs RHB (.200 / .457 OPS) than vs LHB (.282 / .718 OPS). The Cardinals send 5 LHB into that matchup, which is the side Sproat has handled less well in his short 2025 sample.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Pitcher	Split	BF	IP	ERA	K	BB	HR
Andre Pallante	Away	375	84.2	4.89	67	35	11
Andre Pallante	Home	340	78.0	5.42	44	27	10
Brandon Sproat	Away	44	10.2	5.06	9	5	0
Brandon Sproat	Home	40	10.0	3.60	8	2	0

Today's game is at Busch Stadium -- Pallante pitching home (5.42 career ERA, his weaker split) and Sproat pitching away (5.06 career ERA, also his weaker split, on 10.2 IP). Both starters are stepping into their road-leaning context, which slants the run environment up.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Pitcher	TTO	PA	AVG	SLG	OPS	HR	K	BB
Andre Pallante	TTO1	279	.266	.393	.659	6	35	21
Andre Pallante	TTO2	270	.309	.487	.796	8	46	27
Andre Pallante	TTO3	166	.217	.408	.625	7	30	14
Brandon Sproat	TTO1	36	.100	.100	.200	0	9	5
Brandon Sproat	TTO2	35	.290	.516	.806	0	6	2
Brandon Sproat	TTO3	13	.462	.538	1.000	0	2	0

Both starters carry pronounced second pass through the order steps in 2025. Pallante: TTO1 .266 / .393 / .659, then TTO2 .309 / .487 / .796 in 270 PA -- the cliff is real and innings 4-6 are the danger zone. Sproat is more dramatic on a thinner sample: TTO1 .100 / .100 / .200 in 36 PA, then TTO2 .290 / .516 / .806 in 35 PA. The first turn through is when Sproat suppresses contact; the second turn is when the lineup catches up. TTO3 (13 PA) is too small to read.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

Reliever	IR	Scored	Strand%
Kyle Leahy	29	11	62.1%
JoJo Romero	26	3	88.5%
Matt Svanson	26	13	50.0%
Gordon Graceffo	11	5	54.5%
Riley O'Brien	10	3	70.0%
Michael McGreevy	3	0	100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero's 88.5% on 26 IR is well above that band -- the arm to call when traffic shows up. Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) sit clearly below it, and Leahy's 62.1% on 29 IR is the largest sample in the table and trails league average. Bullpen sequencing in the middle innings -- particularly which arm enters mid-frame -- is one of today's swing variables.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Pitcher	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Andre Pallante	515	61.2%	18.3%	19.6%
Brandon Sproat	58	50.0%	17.2%	32.8%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- MIL

Hitter	GB AVG	LD AVG	FB AVG
Jake Bauers	.188	.765	.070
Tyler Black	.333	.333	.000
Jackson Chourio	.307	.581	.101
William Contreras	.241	.651	.067
Sal Frelick	.269	.682	.076
David Hamilton	.226	.444	.049
Brandon Lockridge	.255	.650	.095
Garrett Mitchell	.200	.636	.182
Joey Ortiz	.281	.449	.087
Luis Rengifo	.233	.545	.096
Gary Sanchez	.222	1.000	.000
Brice Turang	.327	.609	.077
Andrew Vaughn	.197	.659	.059

Pallante's career 61.2% GB rate is elite, and the Brewers' 2025 batted-ball profile is GB-heavy across the lineup -- Contreras 53.1%, Rengifo 52.3%, Turang 48.3%, Frelick 47.8%, Mitchell 47.6%, Ortiz 46.3%, Chourio 45.1%. That collision should produce early-count grounders. The exception is the line-drive damage column above: Turang hits .327 on grounders and Chourio hits .307 -- when balls do go through, MIL turns them into singles. Sproat's career 32.8% LD rate (on 58 BIP) is the loud number on his side -- the Cardinals' top LD profile (Walker 21.6%, Burleson 24.6%, Herrera 25.6%) gets a pitcher who has surrendered line drives at an elevated clip in his small sample.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Catcher	G	IP	ERA	AVG	OBP	SLG
Pedro Pagés	15	76.1	4.60	.257	--	--
Yohel Pozo	8	37.2	6.93	.303	--	--
Jimmy Crooks	5	23.1	4.24	.258	--	--
Ivan Herrera	5	23.2	4.56	.271	--	--

Tonight's catcher per the lineup card is Pedro Pages -- the largest pairing on the table at 76.1 IP with Pallante and a 4.60 catcher ERA. Pozo's 6.93 ERA over 37.2 IP is the laggard, and Herrera and Crooks each carry mid-4.00s ERAs in shorter samples. Pages-Pallante is the established pairing of this group, so today's signal sequencing is in the rhythm both have built; no fresh-battery flag.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Brice Turang -- 24 SB / 8 CS / 75.0% in 2025. Top SB total in this lineup pool and a real threat from the leadoff slot.

David Hamilton -- 22 SB / 6 CS / 78.6% in 2025. Bench speed option who runs at high volume when on.

Jackson Chourio -- 21 SB / 7 CS / 75.0% in 2025. Power-speed combo; if he reaches off Pallante (BvP suggests he will), second base is in play.

Sal Frelick -- 19 SB / 6 CS / 76.0% in 2025.

Joey Ortiz -- 14 SB / 3 CS / 82.4% in 2025. Most efficient of the high-volume runners.

Brandon Lockridge -- 10 SB / 1 CS / 90.9% in 2025. Smaller sample, top success rate in the table.

Luis Rengifo -- 10 SB / 7 CS / 58.8% in 2025. The one weak running profile.

Jake Bauers -- 8 SB / 1 CS / 88.9% in 2025.

William Contreras -- 6 SB / 4 CS / 60.0% in 2025.

Garrett Mitchell -- 3 SB / 0 CS / 100.0% in 2025.

League run-game context: Turang, Hamilton, Chourio, Frelick, and Ortiz all sit at or above 75.0% on substantial volume. With Pages catching at a .257 catcher AVG over 76.1 IP this season, the Brewers will probe early -- particularly with Turang on first.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Player	POS	G	DP	E	Fld%
Victor Scott	CF	136	3	6	0.982
Masyn Winn	SS	129	64	3	0.994
Pedro Pagés	C	110	6	5	0.994
Jordan Walker	RF	108	2	4	0.981
Nolan Gorman	3B	54	11	6	0.950
Alec Burleson	1B	50	27	4	0.990
Alec Burleson	LF	41	0	0	1.000
Alec Burleson	RF	34	1	1	0.983
Nolan Gorman	2B	28	9	1	0.990
Nathan Church	CF	18	0	0	1.000
Ivan Herrera	C	14	0	1	0.989
Nolan Gorman	1B	7	4	0	1.000
Nathan Church	RF	7	0	1	0.833
Victor Scott	RF	7	0	0	1.000
Nathan Church	LF	5	0	0	1.000
Victor Scott	LF	4	0	0	1.000
Ivan Herrera	LF	4	0	0	1.000
Pedro Pagés	1B	2	1	0	1.000
Pedro Pagés	2B	1	0	0	1.000
Alec Burleson	P	1	0	0	--

Today's lineup puts Winn at SS (.994 Fld%, 64 DP), Pages behind the plate, Walker in RF (.981 over 108 G), Scott in CF, and Burleson at 1B (.990 over 50 G). Note that Wetherholt is starting at 2B today with no fielding sample in this dataset, and Gorman is at 3B (the position he carries the highest error sample at -- 6 E in 54 G, .950 Fld%). With Pallante's 60.9% 2026 GB rate, the infield does heavy lifting -- the Wetherholt-Winn middle and Gorman at the corner are the alignment to watch when MIL puts balls on the ground.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium plays as a pitcher-leaning venue historically. Recent head-to-head: 2025 STL 6-7, 2024 STL 5-8, 2023 STL 5-8, 2022 STL 10-9. The Brewers have taken three of the last four season series.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Player	PA	K	K%	BB	BB%
Alec Burleson	544	79	14.5%	39	7.2%
Masyn Winn	537	102	19.0%	34	6.3%
Victor Scott	463	111	24.0%	42	9.1%
Ivan Herrera	450	84	18.7%	43	9.6%
Nolan Gorman	402	136	33.8%	47	11.7%
Jordan Walker	396	126	31.8%	29	7.3%
Pedro Pagés	389	107	27.5%	19	4.9%
Nathan Church	65	18	27.7%	3	4.6%

Cardinals carry three high-K bats in 2025: Gorman 33.8%, Walker 31.8%, Church 27.7%, plus Pages at 27.5% with the lowest BB% in the lineup (4.9%). Burleson and Herrera anchor the contact side at 14.5% and 18.7% K%.

Brewers

Player	PA	K	K%	BB	BB%
William Contreras	659	120	18.2%	84	12.7%
Brice Turang	659	150	22.8%	66	10.0%
Sal Frelick	590	80	13.6%	47	8.0%
Jackson Chourio	589	121	20.5%	30	5.1%
Luis Rengifo	541	104	19.2%	33	6.1%
Joey Ortiz	506	74	14.6%	27	5.3%
Andrew Vaughn	447	80	17.9%	31	6.9%
Jake Bauers	218	59	27.1%	32	14.7%
David Hamilton	194	47	24.2%	13	6.7%
Brandon Lockridge	148	36	24.3%	8	5.4%
Gary Sanchez	101	27	26.7%	4	4.0%
Garrett Mitchell	78	25	32.1%	7	9.0%
Tyler Black	13	1	7.7%	5	38.5%

Contreras (12.7% BB%) and Bauers (14.7% BB%) are the high-walk threats in 2025; Pallante's 8.7% BB% career and 10.1% in 2026 give them looks. Mitchell (32.1%) and Bauers (27.1%) are the strikeout exposures. Frelick is the contact lead-off type at 13.6% K%, and Tyler Black's 7.7% K% / 38.5% BB% in 13 PA is too small to read but worth flagging if he sees innings.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Player	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Alec Burleson	398	42.0%	33.4%	24.6%
Masyn Winn	376	39.6%	34.0%	26.3%
Ivan Herrera	285	52.6%	21.8%	25.6%
Victor Scott	259	40.2%	32.0%	27.8%
Pedro Pagés	243	44.9%	30.9%	24.3%
Jordan Walker	231	48.9%	29.4%	21.6%
Nolan Gorman	199	30.2%	41.7%	28.1%
Nathan Church	37	67.6%	21.6%	10.8%

Gorman is the lineup's air-ball outlier in 2025 (30.2% GB% / 41.7% FB%) -- the right profile to challenge Sproat's 7-HR season. Burleson, Winn, and Scott carry mid-tier 2025 LD rates (24.6-27.8%) -- Sproat's 32.8% career LD allowed sits as a complementary signal here.

Brewers

Player	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Sal Frelick	458	47.8%	28.8%	23.4%
William Contreras	454	53.1%	22.9%	24.0%
Jackson Chourio	426	45.1%	30.3%	24.6%
Brice Turang	424	48.3%	24.5%	27.1%
Joey Ortiz	400	46.3%	31.5%	22.3%
Luis Rengifo	386	52.3%	21.5%	26.2%
Andrew Vaughn	334	44.0%	30.5%	25.4%
Jake Bauers	125	38.4%	34.4%	27.2%
David Hamilton	121	43.8%	33.9%	22.3%
Brandon Lockridge	96	57.3%	21.9%	20.8%
Gary Sanchez	59	45.8%	37.3%	16.9%
Garrett Mitchell	42	47.6%	26.2%	26.2%
Tyler Black	7	42.9%	14.3%	42.9%

The lineup pool is GB-heavy in 2025: Lockridge 57.3%, Contreras 53.1%, Rengifo 52.3%, Turang 48.3%, Frelick 47.8%, Mitchell 47.6%, Ortiz 46.3%, Sanchez 45.8%, Chourio 45.1%, Vaughn 44.0%. That meets Pallante's 61.2% career GB% directly -- expect early-count grounders dominating innings 1-3. Turang's 27.1% LD% and Bauers's 27.2% LD% in 2025 are the plant-the-bat profiles to watch when the cliff comes.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Pitcher	IP	K	K%	BB	BB%	K/BB
Andre Pallante	162.2	111	15.5%	62	8.7%	1.79
Brandon Sproat	20.2	17	20.2%	7	8.3%	2.43

Pallante 2026 to date: 18.8% K%, 10.1% BB%. 2025 baseline: 1.79 K/BB ratio, 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%. The 2026 walk rate is up against the 2025 baseline -- command is the variable. Sproat 2026 to date: 21.7% K%, 13.0% BB%. 2025 baseline: 2.43 K/BB ratio, 20.2% K%, 8.3% BB%. The K%/BB% gap has narrowed sharply this year, and the 13.0% BB% is the loud number heading into the start.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Jackson Chourio vs Pallante. 11 PA, .600 / .727 / 1.000 with 5 BB and 1 K career. Chourio's 2025 line vs RHP (.249 / .283 / .435 in 464 PA) shows the SLG plays even when the BB rate is normal, so the BvP signal here points squarely at extra-base damage. Section 2A and the Danger Bat callout flag him; he is the Brewers' primary offensive lever today.

Brice Turang vs Pallante. 13 PA, .385 / .385 / .462 with one K and zero walks. Turang has put the bat on the ball every time -- and 24 SB on 32 attempts in 2025 (Section 2I) layers a stolen base on top once he reaches. The lead-off problem is Turang on first.

Cardinals power vs Sproat. Sproat has surrendered 7 HR in 26.2 IP this year. Burleson (15 HR vs RHP in 2025), Herrera (10), Gorman (9), and Pages (9) are the bats that turn that vulnerability into runs. Sproat's 2025 reverse-platoon (.282 / .436 vs LHB; .200 / .257 vs RHB) means the four LHB power slots in the middle of the order get the friendlier hand-side too.

X-factor: TTO2 collision. Both starters carry pronounced TTO2 cliffs in 2025 (Pallante .796 OPS allowed in TTO2; Sproat .806 OPS allowed in TTO2). Whichever bullpen first answers a fourth-inning trouble call shapes the middle innings -- which is why Romero's 88.5% strand rate (Section 2F) carries more weight than usual today.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Jackson Chourio performed against Andre Pallante in their career?

2. How has Andre Pallante fared against William Contreras in their career?

3. How has Alec Burleson performed against Brandon Sproat in their career?

4. What are Andre Pallante's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Alec Burleson's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?