NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

Team	W-L	GB	Strk
Cubs	23-12	-	W6
Cardinals	21-14	2.0	W1
Reds	20-15	3.0	L4
Pirates	19-16	4.0	W3
Brewers	18-16	4.5	L2

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

Date	Opp	H/A	Result
May 4	MIL	Home	W 6-3
May 3	LAD	Home	L 1-4
May 2	LAD	Home	W 3-2
May 1	LAD	Home	W 7-2
Apr 30	PIT	Away	W 10-5
Apr 29	PIT	Away	W 5-4
Apr 28	PIT	Away	W 11-7
Apr 27	PIT	Away	W 4-2
Apr 26	SEA	Home	L 2-3
Apr 25	SEA	Home	L 9-11

STARTING PITCHERS

Andre Pallante (R) -- STL

3-2, 3.73 ERA, 31.1 IP through 6 GS in 2026. 26 K, 14 BB, 1.31 WHIP, 4 HR allowed. 60.9% GB rate this season -- the sinker is doing its job. 2025 baseline: 1.79 K/BB ratio, 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB% across 162.2 IP.

Brandon Sproat (R) -- MIL

0-2, 6.75 ERA, 26.2 IP through 4 GS in 2026. 25 K, 15 BB, 1.61 WHIP, 7 HR allowed. 13.0% BB% is well above the 9.5% league average; 7 HR through 26.2 IP is the rougher number. 2025 baseline (small): 2.43 K/BB ratio, 20.2% K%, 8.3% BB% across 20.2 IP.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-05-04)

#	Player	Pos	Bats	2026 RISP AVG	2026 RISP OPS
1	Wetherholt	2B	L	.296	.787
2	Herrera	DH	R	.269	.859
3	Burleson	1B	L	.372	1.022
4	Walker	RF	R	.262	.860
5	Gorman	3B	L	.231	.668
6	Winn	SS	R	.233	.600
7	Church	LF	L	.235	.564
8	Pagés	C	R	.174	.535
9	Scott	CF	L	.100	.308

Handedness: 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Pagés), 5 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church, Scott).

Brewers (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

Player	Pos	Bats
Vaughn	1B	R
Lockridge	LF	R
Turang	2B	L
Hamilton	3B	L
Mitchell	CF	L
Sánchez	C	R
Chourio	CF	R
Bauers	1B	L
Ortiz	SS	R
Rengifo	3B	S
Frelick	RF	L
Black	3B	L
Contreras	C	R

Handedness: 6 RHB (Vaughn, Lockridge, Sánchez, Chourio, Ortiz, Contreras), 6 LHB (Turang, Hamilton, Mitchell, Bauers, Frelick, Black).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No external injury search performed for this run. The active rosters above reflect the most recent statsapi pull (26 STL, 26 MIL).

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

Sproat is essentially a blank slate to the Cardinals -- no career BvP rows for any STL hitter, including the four projected RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Pagés). The matchup will be decided on tonight's pitch profile, not on history.

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Sproat (Prieto, Fermín, Urías, Pozo all show no rows).

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Player	PA	AB	H	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Brice Turang	13	13	5	.385	.385	.462	0	0	1
William Contreras	13	12	3	.250	.308	.583	1	1	1
Sal Frelick	11	9	1	.111	.273	.222	0	2	0
Jackson Chourio	11	5	3	.600	.727	1.000	0	5	1
Garrett Mitchell	6	5	2	.400	.500	.400	0	1	1
Joey Ortiz	6	4	1	.250	.250	.250	0	0	0
Jake Bauers	5	3	1	.333	.600	.667	0	2	2
Gary Sanchez	2	2	1	.500	.500	.500	0	0	0
David Hamilton	2	2	1	.500	.500	.500	0	0	1

Small sample: Garrett Mitchell (6 PA), Joey Ortiz (6 PA), Jake Bauers (5 PA), Gary Sanchez (2 PA), David Hamilton (2 PA).

Two real-sample names sit at the top: Turang (5-for-13, 0 K) and Contreras (3-for-12 with the only HR). Chourio's 11 PA crosses the danger threshold -- 3-for-5 plus 5 walks -- and is the at-bat to watch. Frelick is the lone meaningful weak spot (.111 in 9 AB, but with 2 walks). Vaughn, Lockridge, Black, and Rengifo carry no BvP rows.

Bench note: Sanchez and Hamilton each have 2 PA samples -- not actionable, but no obvious cold spot to exploit.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Alec Burleson L	419	.296	.353	.478	15	32	59
Masyn Winn R	374	.251	.309	.368	7	23	71
Victor Scott L	332	.221	.310	.317	5	31	75
Ivan Herrera R	328	.268	.343	.399	10	24	66
Nolan Gorman L	309	.201	.294	.349	9	37	111
Jordan Walker R	289	.200	.263	.291	4	21	94
Pedro Pagés R	276	.225	.264	.364	9	12	72
Nathan Church L	51	.114	.216	.182	1	3	14

Sproat is right-handed, so the table above is the live read. Burleson (.296 vs RHP in 2025) is the clear plus bat in the lineup. Walker's .200 vs RHP in 2025 is the cleanest matchup hole, mirrored by Gorman's .201 / .294 OBP -- both LHB-vs-RHP problems for STL tonight. Church's 51 PA vs RHP is small but stark (.114 / .216 / .182).

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
William Contreras R	502	.263	.349	.409	14	59	92
Brice Turang L	489	.274	.352	.447	16	53	117
Jackson Chourio R	464	.249	.283	.435	16	20	91
Sal Frelick L	442	.278	.342	.421	12	38	59
Luis Rengifo B	440	.241	.296	.325	6	30	84
Joey Ortiz R	380	.203	.261	.272	5	26	57
Andrew Vaughn R	335	.227	.272	.385	12	19	64
Jake Bauers L	214	.244	.360	.428	8	31	56
David Hamilton L	174	.203	.263	.354	6	13	41
Brandon Lockridge R	77	.246	.289	.275	0	4	19
Gary Sanchez R	59	.245	.322	.491	4	2	16
Garrett Mitchell L	54	.208	.278	.333	0	5	21
Tyler Black L	13	.250	.538	.375	0	5	1

Pallante is right-handed; this is the live MIL table. Top of the threat list: Turang (.274 / .352 / .447 vs RHP, 16 HR), Frelick (.278 / .342 / .421 vs RHP), Contreras (.263 / .349 / .409, 14 HR), and Chourio (16 HR vs RHP though the OBP is just .283). Pallante's matchup holes are Ortiz (.203) and Hamilton (.203) -- both project as outs the staff cannot afford to give back.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Pitcher	vs	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	K
Andre Pallante	vs LHB	347	.266	.329	.434	.700	10	60
Andre Pallante	vs RHB	368	.275	.345	.429	.704	11	51
Brandon Sproat	vs LHB	42	.282	.333	.436	.718	0	9
Brandon Sproat	vs RHB	42	.200	.310	.257	.457	0	8

Pallante runs a flat platoon split (.700 vs LHB, .704 vs RHB) -- handedness is not a lever for MIL's lineup construction. Sproat, despite a tiny 84 PA total sample, runs a steep reverse split: .200 / .457 OPS vs RHB and .282 / .718 OPS vs LHB. With 5 LHB in the projected STL lineup and only 4 RHB, Sproat's matchup soft side is the larger half of the order. Burleson, Wetherholt, Gorman, Church, and Scott see the wrong matchup type tonight.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Pitcher	Split	BF	IP	ERA	K	BB	HR
Andre Pallante	Away	375	84.2	4.89	67	35	11
Andre Pallante	Home	340	78.0	5.42	44	27	10
Brandon Sproat	Away	44	10.2	5.06	9	5	0
Brandon Sproat	Home	40	10.0	3.60	8	2	0

Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium -- Pallante home, Sproat away. Pallante carries a 5.42 home ERA across 78.0 IP, worse than his 4.89 mark on the road. Sproat's 5.06 away ERA in 10.2 IP is small-sample but the rougher half of his career split (3.60 home). Both stretches favor STL run scoring on context alone.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Pitcher	TTO	PA	AVG	SLG	OPS	HR	K	BB
Andre Pallante	TTO1	279	.266	.393	.659	6	35	21
Andre Pallante	TTO2	270	.309	.487	.796	8	46	27
Andre Pallante	TTO3	166	.217	.408	.625	7	30	14
Brandon Sproat	TTO1	36	.100	.100	.200	0	9	5
Brandon Sproat	TTO2	35	.290	.516	.806	0	6	2
Brandon Sproat	TTO3	13	.462	.538	1.000	0	2	0

Pallante's 2025 second pass through the order is the cliff: .309 AVG / .487 SLG / .796 OPS over 270 PA, jumping from a .659 OPS first pass and dropping back to .625 on the third. The danger window is innings 4-6. Sproat's TTO line moves the opposite direction in tiny samples -- first pass dominant (.100 / .200 OPS), then climbs hard at the second pass (.290 / .806 OPS) and the third (.462 / 1.000 OPS in 13 PA). The Cardinals' offensive plan is patience: drag Sproat into a second look at the order.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

Reliever	IR	Scored	Strand%
Kyle Leahy	29	11	62.1%
JoJo Romero	26	3	88.5%
Matt Svanson	26	13	50.0%
Gordon Graceffo	11	5	54.5%
Riley O'Brien	10	3	70.0%
Michael McGreevy	3	0	100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero's 88.5% strand on 26 IR is the elite arm to bring into traffic; McGreevy's 100% is real but on only 3 IR (small sample). Svanson (50.0% on 26 IR) and Graceffo (54.5% on 11 IR) are the two below-league spots -- Graceffo gave up Turang's two-run HR yesterday entering with runners on. Leahy (62.1% on 29 IR) just threw 5.1 IP yesterday and is unlikely to be available tonight.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Pitcher	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Andre Pallante	515	61.2%	18.3%	19.6%
Brandon Sproat	58	50.0%	17.2%	32.8%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- MIL

Hitter	GB AVG	LD AVG	FB AVG
Jake Bauers	.188	.765	.070
Tyler Black	.333	.333	.000
Jackson Chourio	.307	.581	.101
William Contreras	.241	.651	.067
Sal Frelick	.269	.682	.076
David Hamilton	.226	.444	.049
Brandon Lockridge	.255	.650	.095
Garrett Mitchell	.200	.636	.182
Joey Ortiz	.281	.449	.087
Luis Rengifo	.233	.545	.096
Gary Sanchez	.222	1.000	.000
Brice Turang	.327	.609	.077
Andrew Vaughn	.197	.659	.059

Pallante's 61.2% career GB rate is elite-extreme and meets a MIL lineup pool that beats balls into the ground at high rates as well -- Contreras 53.1% GB, Rengifo 52.3%, Turang 48.3%, Frelick 47.8% in 2025. The collision favors Pallante if STL infield turns DPs (Winn 64 DP at SS leads the team). The risk: Chourio's career .307 GB AVG and Turang's .327 GB AVG -- both put the ball through the infield at above-average rates when they hit it on the ground. The line-drive column is where every MIL bat lives -- four of the lineup pool sit at .609 or higher.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Catcher	G	IP	ERA	AVG	OBP	SLG
Pedro Pagés	15	76.1	4.60	.257	--	--
Yohel Pozo	8	37.2	6.93	.303	--	--
Jimmy Crooks	5	23.1	4.24	.258	--	--
Ivan Herrera	5	23.2	4.56	.271	--	--

All four catchers in the table are recent Cardinals battery samples with Pallante. Tonight's scheduled catcher is Pedro Pagés, batting 8th -- the most-used pairing on the staff (15 G, 76.1 IP, 4.60 ERA / .257 AVG against). Familiar battery, no fresh-receiver wrinkle. Crooks (4.24 ERA in 23.1 IP) is the cleanest line but he is not on the active roster pool. Herrera (4.56 ERA in 23.2 IP, behind the dish today as DH) is the contingency if Pagés exits.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Brice Turang: 24 SB / 8 CS, 75% success.

David Hamilton: 22 SB / 6 CS, 78.6% success.

Jackson Chourio: 21 SB / 7 CS, 75% success.

Sal Frelick: 19 SB / 6 CS, 76% success.

Joey Ortiz: 14 SB / 3 CS, 82.4% success.

Brandon Lockridge: 10 SB / 1 CS, 90.9% success.

Luis Rengifo: 10 SB / 7 CS, 58.8% success.

Jake Bauers: 8 SB / 1 CS, 88.9% success.

William Contreras: 6 SB / 4 CS, 60% success.

Garrett Mitchell: 3 SB / 0 CS, 100% success.

MIL stacks running threats four deep at 75%+ success. With Pallante's 61.2% career GB rate putting more balls in the infield and Pages catching, the run game is the lever the Brewers will pull -- especially with Turang, Hamilton, Chourio, and Frelick all in the active pool tonight.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Player	POS	G	DP	E	Fld%
Victor Scott	CF	136	3	6	0.982
Masyn Winn	SS	129	64	3	0.994
Pedro Pagés	C	110	6	5	0.994
Jordan Walker	RF	108	2	4	0.981
Nolan Gorman	3B	54	11	6	0.950
Alec Burleson	1B	50	27	4	0.990
Alec Burleson	LF	41	0	0	1.000
Alec Burleson	RF	34	1	1	0.983
Nolan Gorman	2B	28	9	1	0.990
Nathan Church	CF	18	0	0	1.000
Ivan Herrera	C	14	0	1	0.989
Nolan Gorman	1B	7	4	0	1.000
Nathan Church	RF	7	0	1	0.833
Victor Scott	RF	7	0	0	1.000
Nathan Church	LF	5	0	0	1.000
Victor Scott	LF	4	0	0	1.000
Ivan Herrera	LF	4	0	0	1.000
Pedro Pagés	1B	2	1	0	1.000
Pedro Pagés	2B	1	0	0	1.000
Alec Burleson	P	1	0	0	--

Tonight's STL alignment per the lineup card: Wetherholt 2B (no career fielding sample in this dataset), Burleson 1B, Walker RF, Gorman 3B, Winn SS, Church LF, Pagés C, Scott CF, Herrera DH. Winn at SS (129 G, .994, 64 DP) is the high-leverage glove behind a 61.2% GB pitcher -- Pallante turns runners into double-play candidates. Gorman's 3B sample (54 G, 6 E, .950) is the soft spot in the infield. Scott's 136 G in CF anchors a deep outfield against Sproat's career 32.8% LD rate.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium plays as a pitcher-leaning venue historically. Recent head-to-head: 2025 STL 6-7, 2024 STL 5-8, 2023 STL 5-8, 2022 STL 10-9 -- the Brewers have had the Cardinals' number for three consecutive seasons.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Player	PA	K	K%	BB	BB%
Alec Burleson	544	79	14.5%	39	7.2%
Masyn Winn	537	102	19.0%	34	6.3%
Victor Scott	463	111	24.0%	42	9.1%
Ivan Herrera	450	84	18.7%	43	9.6%
Nolan Gorman	402	136	33.8%	47	11.7%
Jordan Walker	396	126	31.8%	29	7.3%
Pedro Pagés	389	107	27.5%	19	4.9%
Nathan Church	65	18	27.7%	3	4.6%

Three STL bats sit above the 25% K threshold in 2025 -- Gorman 33.8%, Walker 31.8%, Pagés 27.5%, plus Church's small-sample 27.7%. Burleson's 14.5% K% is the contact anchor. Pagés (4.9%) and Church (4.6%) are below the 6% BB threshold -- they will not work walks tonight.

Brewers

Player	PA	K	K%	BB	BB%
William Contreras	659	120	18.2%	84	12.7%
Brice Turang	659	150	22.8%	66	10.0%
Sal Frelick	590	80	13.6%	47	8.0%
Jackson Chourio	589	121	20.5%	30	5.1%
Luis Rengifo	541	104	19.2%	33	6.1%
Joey Ortiz	506	74	14.6%	27	5.3%
Andrew Vaughn	447	80	17.9%	31	6.9%
Jake Bauers	218	59	27.1%	32	14.7%
David Hamilton	194	47	24.2%	13	6.7%
Brandon Lockridge	148	36	24.3%	8	5.4%
Gary Sanchez	101	27	26.7%	4	4.0%
Garrett Mitchell	78	25	32.1%	7	9.0%
Tyler Black	13	1	7.7%	5	38.5%

Contreras (12.7% BB%) and Bauers (14.7% BB%) are the patience bats -- both above the league 9.5% mark and well above. Mitchell (32.1% K%, 78 PA), Bauers (27.1%), Sanchez (26.7%), and Lockridge (24.3%) are the swing-and-miss spots Pallante can attack. Ortiz, Sanchez, Chourio, and Lockridge all sit below the 6% BB threshold -- the bottom of MIL's order will swing.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Player	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Alec Burleson	398	42.0%	33.4%	24.6%
Masyn Winn	376	39.6%	34.0%	26.3%
Ivan Herrera	285	52.6%	21.8%	25.6%
Victor Scott	259	40.2%	32.0%	27.8%
Pedro Pagés	243	44.9%	30.9%	24.3%
Jordan Walker	231	48.9%	29.4%	21.6%
Nolan Gorman	199	30.2%	41.7%	28.1%
Nathan Church	37	67.6%	21.6%	10.8%

Sproat's 50.0% career GB rate (small sample) meets a Cardinals lineup with one notable air-ball bat -- Gorman's 41.7% FB rate in 2025. Herrera (52.6% GB) and Church (67.6% GB) are the ground-ball ends; their value tonight depends on hard contact through MIL's middle infield.

Brewers

Player	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Sal Frelick	458	47.8%	28.8%	23.4%
William Contreras	454	53.1%	22.9%	24.0%
Jackson Chourio	426	45.1%	30.3%	24.6%
Brice Turang	424	48.3%	24.5%	27.1%
Joey Ortiz	400	46.3%	31.5%	22.3%
Luis Rengifo	386	52.3%	21.5%	26.2%
Andrew Vaughn	334	44.0%	30.5%	25.4%
Jake Bauers	125	38.4%	34.4%	27.2%
David Hamilton	121	43.8%	33.9%	22.3%
Brandon Lockridge	96	57.3%	21.9%	20.8%
Gary Sanchez	59	45.8%	37.3%	16.9%
Garrett Mitchell	42	47.6%	26.2%	26.2%
Tyler Black	7	42.9%	14.3%	42.9%

Pallante's 61.2% career GB rate is the dominant frame here. Contreras (53.1% GB), Rengifo (52.3%), Turang (48.3%), and Frelick (47.8%) live on the ground -- the Cardinals' double-play infield with Winn at SS and Burleson at 1B is built for this. The carry threats are Bauers (34.4% FB, 27.2% LD) and Sanchez (37.3% FB) when they are in the lineup. Turang's 27.1% LD rate is the loudest line-drive bat in the pool.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Pitcher	IP	K	K%	BB	BB%	K/BB
Andre Pallante	162.2	111	15.5%	62	8.7%	1.79
Brandon Sproat	20.2	17	20.2%	7	8.3%	2.43

Pallante 2026 to date: 18.8% K%, 10.1% BB%. Pallante 2025 baseline: 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.79 K/BB ratio across 162.2 IP -- below the league 22.1% K average; he wins on grounders, not whiffs. Sproat 2026 to date: 21.7% K%, 13.0% BB%. Sproat 2025 baseline (small): 20.2% K%, 8.3% BB%, 2.43 K/BB ratio in 20.2 IP. Sproat's 2026 walk rate is the alarm: 13.0% is well above league average and matches what is happening to his ERA.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Brice Turang vs Pallante. 5-for-13 career (.385 / .385 / .462), 0 K. Combined with .274 / .352 / .447 vs RHP in 2025, 16 HR, and yesterday's 3-for-5 HR game, Turang is the lineup spot Pallante cannot afford to challenge inside.

Jackson Chourio vs Pallante. 3-for-5 with 5 BB in 11 career PA -- a .600 / .727 / 1.000 line that triggers the danger callout. Pallante has not solved him; the at-bats end in walks or hits at a .727 OBP clip. Chourio carries 16 HR vs RHP in 2025.

STL RHB vs Sproat (vs RHB .200 / .310 / .457 OPS in 42 PA). Herrera, Walker, Winn, and Pagés are the four-man RH path. Walker's .200 vs RHP in 2025 and Pagés's .225 vs RHP in 2025 are the cold spots; Herrera (.268 / .343 vs RHP in 2025) is the lever to pull.

Pallante TTO2 cliff (270 PA, .796 OPS). Second pass through the order is the historical danger window. Innings 4-6 are when MIL's lineup gets its second look at the sinker -- watch the bullpen-warmup signal there.

Sproat TTO turn (35 PA TTO2, .806 OPS; 13 PA TTO3, 1.000 OPS). The first-pass dominance flips at the second pass and stays flipped at the third. The Cardinals' offensive plan is to extend at-bats and force a third look.

MIL run game. Turang (24 SB, 75%), Hamilton (22 SB, 78.6%), Chourio (21 SB, 75%), Frelick (19 SB, 76%), Lockridge (10 SB, 90.9%) are all in the pool. Pagés catches; Pallante's 61.2% career GB rate keeps runners on first.

Bullpen leverage. Romero is the high-leverage arm (88.5% strand on 26 IR). Svanson (50.0% on 26 IR) and Graceffo (54.5% on 11 IR) are the spots the manager should avoid in tie-game traffic.

Pallante-Pagés battery (15 G, 76.1 IP, 4.60 ERA). Most-used STL battery this season -- familiar pairing tonight, no fresh-receiver wrinkle.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Brice Turang performed against Andre Pallante in their career?

2. How has Andre Pallante fared against Jackson Chourio in their career?

3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Jake Bauers in their career?

4. What are Andre Pallante's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Brice Turang's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?