NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 22-12 | - | W5 |
| Cardinals | 20-14 | 2.0 | L1 |
| Reds | 20-14 | 2.0 | L3 |
| Brewers | 18-15 | 3.5 | L1 |
| Pirates | 19-16 | 3.5 | W3 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | LAD | Home | L 1-4 |
| May 2 | LAD | Home | W 3-2 |
| May 1 | LAD | Home | W 7-2 |
| Apr 30 | PIT | Away | W 10-5 |
| Apr 29 | PIT | Away | W 5-4 |
| Apr 28 | PIT | Away | W 11-7 |
| Apr 27 | PIT | Away | W 4-2 |
| Apr 26 | SEA | Home | L 2-3 |
| Apr 25 | SEA | Home | L 9-11 |
| Apr 24 | SEA | Home | L 2-3 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Kyle Leahy (R) -- Cardinals
2026 to date: 3-3, 5.52 ERA, 1.67 WHIP across 29.1 IP and 6 starts. 22 K / 11 BB (16.4% K%, 8.2% BB%); 6 HR allowed; 63.3% GB%. The walk rate is up and the ERA reflects it. 2025 baseline: 22.0% K%, 7.7% BB%, 2.86 K/BB ratio over 88.0 IP -- much sharper command.
Home/road split is the lever: 2.68 ERA on the road versus 4.47 at home (career). Tonight is a home start.
Chad Patrick (R) -- Brewers
2026 to date: 2-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP across 28.0 IP and 4 starts. 16 K / 13 BB (14.0% K%, 11.4% BB%) -- ERA holds despite an elevated walk rate. 39.7% GB%; 2 HR allowed. 2025 baseline: 25.2% K%, 8.0% BB%, 3.18 K/BB ratio over 119.2 IP -- cleaner profile last year.
Patrick's 2025 TTO line collapses third pass through the order: .855 OPS in 75 PA, versus .625 first pass and .530 second pass.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-05-03)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .240 | .684 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .250 | .805 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .381 | 1.045 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .268 | .879 |
| 5 | Gorman | 3B | L | .237 | .684 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .214 | .574 |
| 7 | Church | LF | L | .235 | .564 |
| 8 | Pagés | C | R | .182 | .526 |
| 9 | Scott | CF | L | .100 | .308 |
Handedness: 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Pagés), 5 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church, Scott).
Brewers (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Perkins | LF | S |
| Lockridge | LF | R |
| Turang | 2B | L |
| Hamilton | 3B | L |
| Mitchell | CF | L |
| Sánchez | C | R |
| Jones | LF | S |
| Bauers | 1B | L |
| Ortiz | SS | R |
| Rengifo | 3B | S |
| Frelick | RF | L |
| Black | 3B | L |
| Contreras | C | R |
Handedness: 4 RHB (Lockridge, Sánchez, Ortiz, Contreras), 6 LHB (Turang, Hamilton, Mitchell, Bauers, Frelick, Black).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
Injury and roster-move detail is not tracked in the Phase 1 JSON. Active roster pulls from statsapi: Cardinals 26 players, Brewers 26 players. Cardinals lineup is projected from 2026-05-03; Brewers shown as roster-only (no batting order confirmed at publish time).
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ivan Herrera | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan Gorman | 4 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Victor Scott | 4 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alec Burleson | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Masyn Winn | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Church | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Pedro Pagés (4 PA), Jordan Walker (4 PA), Ivan Herrera (3 PA), Nolan Gorman (4 PA), Victor Scott (4 PA), Alec Burleson (2 PA), Masyn Winn (2 PA), Nathan Church (1 PA).
Career BvP samples vs Patrick are uniformly small (1-4 PA). No batter clears the 10 PA danger threshold. Burleson and Winn are 1-for-2 each, Herrera and Scott carry .333 lines on 1-of-3, Pages and Walker each 1-for-4. Wetherholt has no career data on Patrick.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Patrick (Urias, Saggese, Pozo, Fermin all unsampled).
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Ortiz | 5 | 5 | 1 | .200 | .200 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sal Frelick | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brice Turang | 5 | 4 | 0 | .000 | .200 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake Bauers | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Contreras | 5 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .400 | .250 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Blake Perkins | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gary Sanchez | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Joey Ortiz (5 PA), Sal Frelick (4 PA), Brice Turang (5 PA), Jake Bauers (4 PA), William Contreras (5 PA), Blake Perkins (1 PA), Garrett Mitchell (1 PA), Gary Sanchez (1 PA).
All eight Brewers samples are under the 10 PA danger threshold. Ortiz and Contreras lead at 5 PA each; Contreras' .400 OBP on a walk is the only on-base notable. Turang is 0-for-4 with one walk and a strikeout. Frelick has 2 K in 4 PA -- the only multi-K trace. The lineup is essentially facing Leahy blind.
Bench note: No career BvP history off Leahy for Black, Hamilton, Jones, Lockridge, or Rengifo.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Victor Scott L | 332 | .221 | .310 | .317 | 5 | 31 | 75 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 276 | .225 | .264 | .364 | 9 | 12 | 72 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
Patrick is RHP, so the relevant column is 2025 vs RHP. Burleson stands out: .296/.353/.478 with 15 HR over 419 PA -- the lineup's best stick against right-handers. Herrera (.268/.343/.399) and Winn (.251/.309/.368) carry above-average lines. Walker's 2025 vs RHP line of .200/.263/.291 (94 K in 289 PA) and Gorman's .201/.294/.349 (111 K in 309 PA) are the lineup's strikeout-prone ends. Church's 51 PA sample is too small to project but the .114 line is the floor.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras R | 502 | .263 | .349 | .409 | 14 | 59 | 92 |
| Brice Turang L | 489 | .274 | .352 | .447 | 16 | 53 | 117 |
| Sal Frelick L | 442 | .278 | .342 | .421 | 12 | 38 | 59 |
| Luis Rengifo B | 440 | .241 | .296 | .325 | 6 | 30 | 84 |
| Joey Ortiz R | 380 | .203 | .261 | .272 | 5 | 26 | 57 |
| Jake Bauers L | 214 | .244 | .360 | .428 | 8 | 31 | 56 |
| David Hamilton L | 174 | .203 | .263 | .354 | 6 | 13 | 41 |
| Blake Perkins B | 130 | .203 | .277 | .305 | 1 | 11 | 38 |
| Brandon Lockridge R | 77 | .246 | .289 | .275 | 0 | 4 | 19 |
| Gary Sanchez R | 59 | .245 | .322 | .491 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| Garrett Mitchell L | 54 | .208 | .278 | .333 | 0 | 5 | 21 |
| Tyler Black L | 13 | .250 | .538 | .375 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| Greg Jones B | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Leahy is RHP, so 2025 vs RHP applies. The Brewers' lineup tilts 6 LHB / 4 RHB / 3 SHB. Contreras (R) is the most dangerous regular at .263/.349/.409 with 14 HR. Turang (.274/.352/.447 with 16 HR) and Frelick (.278/.342/.421 with 12 HR) are top lefty bats; Bauers' .360 OBP over 214 PA is a discipline tag. Ortiz, Hamilton, Perkins, and Mitchell sit around the .200 mark vs RHP -- the soft underbelly Leahy can target.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | vs LHB | 163 | .252 | .337 | .364 | .616 | 3 | 37 |
| Kyle Leahy | vs RHB | 200 | .238 | .270 | .319 | .557 | 2 | 43 |
| Chad Patrick | vs LHB | 250 | .261 | .337 | .396 | .657 | 5 | 60 |
| Chad Patrick | vs RHB | 284 | .221 | .272 | .369 | .590 | 10 | 78 |
Both starters punish RHB more than LHB. Leahy: .557 OPS vs RHB versus .616 vs LHB. Patrick: .590 OPS vs RHB versus .657 vs LHB. The Brewers' 6-LHB tilt is a structural advantage on Leahy; the Cardinals' 5-LHB tilt is a structural advantage on Patrick. Both lineups built to exploit the opposing arm's weaker side.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | Away | 173 | 43.2 | 2.68 | 46 | 13 | 2 |
| Kyle Leahy | Home | 190 | 44.1 | 4.47 | 34 | 15 | 3 |
| Chad Patrick | Away | 240 | 58.1 | 3.39 | 52 | 17 | 7 |
| Chad Patrick | Home | 294 | 70.1 | 2.94 | 86 | 24 | 8 |
Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium. Leahy is pitching home: 4.47 ERA in 44.1 IP, versus 2.68 in 43.2 IP on the road -- a clear venue gap and the K rate falls (46 K away, 34 K home). Patrick pitches away: 3.39 ERA in 58.1 IP, versus 2.94 at home. Both pitchers are slightly worse in tonight's contexts than at their stronger venue, but Leahy's home discount is the larger of the two.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | TTO1 | 355 | .247 | .341 | .588 | 5 | 76 | 28 |
| Kyle Leahy | TTO2 | 8 | .125 | .250 | .375 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Chad Patrick | TTO1 | 254 | .249 | .376 | .625 | 6 | 68 | 21 |
| Chad Patrick | TTO2 | 205 | .209 | .321 | .530 | 5 | 54 | 14 |
| Chad Patrick | TTO3 | 75 | .290 | .565 | .855 | 4 | 16 | 6 |
Patrick's third pass through the order is the inflection point: .290/.347/.565 (.855 OPS) over 75 PA -- innings 7+ is where the lineup gets its best swings. The first pass (.625 OPS) is league-average and the second pass (.530 OPS) is suppressed; the cliff is the third trip. Leahy carries a 355 PA TTO1 sample at .588 OPS reflecting his reliever role; only 8 PA logged in TTO2 -- not enough to project, but the workload pattern suggests an early hook is likely.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero leads the Cardinals at 88.5% (3 of 26 IR scored), well above league. Svanson at 50.0% and Graceffo at 54.5% sit below; if either enters with runners, the inning is at risk. McGreevy 100% is on a 3-IR sample. Leahy's 62.1% predates his start role and is reference data only for tonight.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 249 | 44.2% | 26.9% | 27.7% |
| Chad Patrick | 336 | 32.4% | 36.6% | 30.4% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- MIL
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | .188 | .765 | .070 |
| Tyler Black | .333 | .333 | .000 |
| William Contreras | .241 | .651 | .067 |
| Sal Frelick | .269 | .682 | .076 |
| David Hamilton | .226 | .444 | .049 |
| Brandon Lockridge | .255 | .650 | .095 |
| Garrett Mitchell | .200 | .636 | .182 |
| Joey Ortiz | .281 | .449 | .087 |
| Blake Perkins | .273 | .696 | .097 |
| Luis Rengifo | .233 | .545 | .096 |
| Gary Sanchez | .222 | 1.000 | .000 |
| Brice Turang | .327 | .609 | .077 |
Leahy's career batted-ball mix is 44.2% GB / 26.9% FB / 27.7% LD -- ground-ball-leaning. The Brewers carry several heavy GB bats (Lockridge 57.3%, Contreras 53.1%, Rengifo 52.3%, Perkins 50.5% in 2025), and their GB AVG numbers are pedestrian (Contreras .241, Rengifo .233, Lockridge .255). Expect lots of one-hop grounders into the Cardinals' infield. Patrick reverses the profile (32.4% GB / 36.6% FB / 30.4% LD); Cardinals' fly-ball-tilted bat is Gorman (41.7% FB in 2025), the cleanest matchup with Patrick's pattern.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 43 | 62.0 | 3.05 | .225 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 13 | 16.0 | 2.25 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 4 | 6.1 | 8.53 | .346 | -- | -- |
| Ivan Herrera | 4 | 3.0 | 6.00 | .308 | -- | -- |
Pedro Pages is the scheduled catcher tonight (lineup #8). Pages-Leahy is the established battery -- 43 G, 62.0 IP, 3.05 ERA, .225 AVG against. Pozo (13 G, 2.25 ERA) is the strongest backup pairing in the data. Crooks (4 G, 8.53 ERA, .346 AVG) and Herrera (4 G, 6.00 ERA, .308 AVG) are well behind on small samples. Pages' familiarity with Leahy's mix is meaningful tonight given the Brewers' running-game volume.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Brewers SB leaders (2025):
-- Brice Turang: 24 SB / 8 CS / 75.0% success
-- David Hamilton: 22 SB / 6 CS / 78.6%
-- Sal Frelick: 19 SB / 6 CS / 76.0%
-- Joey Ortiz: 14 SB / 3 CS / 82.4%
-- Brandon Lockridge: 10 SB / 1 CS / 90.9%
-- Luis Rengifo: 10 SB / 7 CS / 58.8%
-- Jake Bauers: 8 SB / 1 CS / 88.9%
-- Blake Perkins: 7 SB / 2 CS / 77.8%
-- William Contreras: 6 SB / 4 CS / 60.0%
-- Garrett Mitchell: 3 SB / 0 CS / 100.0%
-- Greg Jones: 1 SB / 0 CS / 100.0%
Five Brewers carry double-digit SB totals; Turang, Hamilton, and Frelick are the headline volume threats. Lockridge's 90.9% on 11 attempts and Bauers' 88.9% are the success-rate flags. Pages catches tonight (110 G at .994 fielding) -- the strand-vs-steal balance is one of the night's main fulcrums.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott | CF | 136 | 3 | 6 | 0.982 |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Victor Scott | RF | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Victor Scott | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Tonight's lineup positions per the lineup card: Wetherholt 2B (rookie -- no career fielding sample in this dataset), Burleson 1B (50 G at .990, 4 errors), Walker RF (108 G at .981), Gorman 3B (54 G at .950 with 6 errors -- the lineup's weakest infield spot), Winn SS (129 G at .994 -- elite), Church LF (5 G at LF in the data, more time logged at CF and RF), Pages C (110 G at .994), Scott CF (136 G at .982). The left side of the infield (Gorman / Winn) faces a GB-heavy Brewers lineup against Leahy's GB-heavy career profile -- a lot of grounders are going to find that side.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Recent head-to-head records: 2025 STL 6-7, 2024 STL 5-8, 2023 STL 5-8, 2022 STL 10-9. Brewers have taken the season series each of the last three years.
Busch Stadium plays as a roughly neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue historically. Specific park factors are not provided in the JSON; qualitative framing only.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Victor Scott | 463 | 111 | 24.0% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
Gorman (33.8% K%) and Walker (31.8% K%) are the lineup's high-strikeout ends; both are 2025 figures. Pages 27.5% K% with 4.9% BB% is the worst plate-discipline ratio on the card. Burleson at 14.5% K% / 7.2% BB% is the cleanest contact profile.
Brewers
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang | 659 | 150 | 22.8% | 66 | 10.0% |
| William Contreras | 659 | 120 | 18.2% | 84 | 12.7% |
| Sal Frelick | 590 | 80 | 13.6% | 47 | 8.0% |
| Luis Rengifo | 541 | 104 | 19.2% | 33 | 6.1% |
| Joey Ortiz | 506 | 74 | 14.6% | 27 | 5.3% |
| Jake Bauers | 218 | 59 | 27.1% | 32 | 14.7% |
| David Hamilton | 194 | 47 | 24.2% | 13 | 6.7% |
| Blake Perkins | 171 | 47 | 27.5% | 15 | 8.8% |
| Brandon Lockridge | 148 | 36 | 24.3% | 8 | 5.4% |
| Gary Sanchez | 101 | 27 | 26.7% | 4 | 4.0% |
| Garrett Mitchell | 78 | 25 | 32.1% | 7 | 9.0% |
| Tyler Black | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 5 | 38.5% |
| Greg Jones | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Brewers' 2025 discipline tags: Bauers' 14.7% BB% is elite among regulars; Tyler Black's 38.5% BB% sits on a 13 PA sample and is too small to project. Mitchell (32.1% K%), Bauers (27.1%), Perkins (27.5%), and Sanchez (26.7%) are the high-strikeout ends. Contreras (18.2% K% / 12.7% BB%) is the most balanced regular -- the toughest at-bat on the card.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Victor Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Gorman's 2025 batted-ball mix is the lineup outlier: 30.2% GB / 41.7% FB -- a fly-ball-tilted bat against Patrick's fly-ball-friendly profile (36.6% FB, only 32.4% GB). Burleson, Winn, and Scott carry balanced ~40% GB lines. Herrera (52.6% GB) and Church (67.6% GB on a 37-BIP sample) skew heavily toward grounders.
Brewers
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Frelick | 458 | 47.8% | 28.8% | 23.4% |
| William Contreras | 454 | 53.1% | 22.9% | 24.0% |
| Brice Turang | 424 | 48.3% | 24.5% | 27.1% |
| Joey Ortiz | 400 | 46.3% | 31.5% | 22.3% |
| Luis Rengifo | 386 | 52.3% | 21.5% | 26.2% |
| Jake Bauers | 125 | 38.4% | 34.4% | 27.2% |
| David Hamilton | 121 | 43.8% | 33.9% | 22.3% |
| Blake Perkins | 109 | 50.5% | 28.4% | 21.1% |
| Brandon Lockridge | 96 | 57.3% | 21.9% | 20.8% |
| Gary Sanchez | 59 | 45.8% | 37.3% | 16.9% |
| Garrett Mitchell | 42 | 47.6% | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| Tyler Black | 7 | 42.9% | 14.3% | 42.9% |
| Greg Jones | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
The Brewers' top hitters trend GB-heavy in 2025: Contreras 53.1%, Frelick 47.8%, Turang 48.3%, Lockridge 57.3%, Rengifo 52.3%, Perkins 50.5%. Leahy's 44.2% GB profile fits this pattern -- a lot of grounders are likely tonight, and the Brewers' GB AVG numbers above (Contreras .241, Rengifo .233, Lockridge .255) are pedestrian. Bauers (38.4% GB) is the FB outlier on Milwaukee's side.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Patrick | 119.2 | 127 | 25.2% | 40 | 8.0% | 3.18 |
| Kyle Leahy | 88.0 | 80 | 22.0% | 28 | 7.7% | 2.86 |
2025 baselines: Patrick 25.2% K% / 8.0% BB% / 3.18 K/BB ratio. Leahy 22.0% K% / 7.7% BB% / 2.86 K/BB ratio. 2026 to date: Patrick 14.0% K% / 11.4% BB% (the walk rate has stepped up sharply from 2025); Leahy 16.4% K% / 8.2% BB% (also down from 2025 with a higher BB%). Both pitchers are walking more this year than they did in 2025; the K rates are softer too. The Patrick 2.57 ERA is masking command that has slipped versus his 2025 form.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Burleson vs Patrick. Burleson is the Cardinals' best stick versus right-handers (.296/.353/.478 with 15 HR over 419 PA in 2025). Career BvP off Patrick is 1-for-2 (.500), too small to project. Burleson's 2026 RISP slash is .381/.426/.619/1.045 -- a leverage bat against a Patrick whose third pass through the order is the cliff (.855 OPS in 2025).
Contreras vs Leahy. Brewers' top RHB at .263/.349/.409 vs RHP in 2025; 12.7% BB% leads the regulars. Career off Leahy: 1-for-4 with a walk. Leahy's vs-RHB profile is the better side of his platoon (.557 OPS vs .616 vs LHB), so this is the matchup where Leahy has the structural edge -- Contreras is the test.
Turang vs the Pages-Leahy battery. Turang has 24 SB on 75% success in 2025; Leahy carries a 44.2% career GB rate that creates first-pitch jump windows. Pages is the established battery (110 G at .994 fielding; 43 G with Leahy specifically) -- the strand-vs-steal balance is the night's biggest situational fulcrum.
X-factor: Leahy at home. 4.47 home ERA versus 2.68 on the road (career). The Brewers run out 6 LHB, and Leahy's vs-LHB OPS is .616 versus .557 vs RHB. The structural lever for Milwaukee tonight is to keep the lineup left.
Watchlist: Patrick TTO3 cliff (.855 OPS allowed, innings 7+); Brewers running game (5 hitters with 10+ SB; Lockridge 90.9%); STL lefty bats vs Patrick (.657 OPS allowed vs LHB in 2025, 5 LHB in the lineup); Romero leverage (88.5% IR strand percentage in 2025); avoid Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) with runners on.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Chad Patrick in their career?
2. How has Kyle Leahy fared against William Contreras in their career?
3. How has Brice Turang performed against JoJo Romero in their career?
4. What are Chad Patrick's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Alec Burleson's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025