NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 20-11 | - | W1 |
| Cubs | 19-12 | 1.0 | W2 |
| Cardinals | 18-13 | 2.0 | W4 |
| Brewers | 16-14 | 3.5 | W1 |
| Pirates | 16-16 | 4.5 | L5 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | PIT | Away | W 5-4 |
| Apr 28 | PIT | Away | W 11-7 |
| Apr 27 | PIT | Away | W 4-2 |
| Apr 26 | SEA | Home | L 2-3 |
| Apr 25 | SEA | Home | L 9-11 |
| Apr 24 | SEA | Home | L 2-3 |
| Apr 22 | MIA | Away | L 1-4 |
| Apr 21 | MIA | Away | W 5-3 |
| Apr 20 | MIA | Away | L 3-5 |
| Apr 19 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 (10) |
STARTING PITCHERS
Hunter Dobbins (STL)
2026 to date: 0-0, 6.23 ERA across 4.1 IP (1 GS). 4 K, 5 BB, 1.62 WHIP, 0 HR allowed. The walk rate is the headline issue in the early sample (26.3% BB% in 2026 to date), and a 21.1% K% does not offset it. Dobbins gets his game on the road today against a Pirates lineup that has been swept 0-3 in the series so far.
Paul Skenes (PIT)
2026 to date: 4-2, 3.18 ERA across 34.0 IP (7 GS). 39 K, 7 BB, 0.85 WHIP. The Cardinals draw the toughest possible matchup to close the series -- Skenes is at home, where he carries a 1.75 career ERA across 92.1 IP. Career K% 29.5, BB% 5.7, K/BB ratio 5.14.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Expected)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .273 | .764 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .250 | .805 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .366 | .998 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .237 | .743 |
| 5 | Gorman | 3B | L | .242 | .633 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .222 | .572 |
| 7 | Church | LF | L | .267 | .635 |
| 8 | Pagés | C | R | .200 | .577 |
| 9 | Scott | CF | L | .111 | .338 |
Handedness: 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Pagés), 5 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church, Scott).
Pirates (Expected)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz | CF | L | .281 | 1.020 |
| 2 | Lowe | 2B | L | .226 | .766 |
| 3 | Reynolds | RF | S | .273 | .860 |
| 4 | O'Hearn | DH | L | .250 | .722 |
| 5 | Gonzales | 3B | R | .440 | 1.013 |
| 6 | Horwitz | 1B | L | .200 | .553 |
| 7 | Griffin | SS | R | .318 | .703 |
| 8 | Mangum | LF | S | .143 | .360 |
| 9 | Davis | C | R | .118 | .368 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Gonzales, Griffin, Davis), 4 LHB (Cruz, Lowe, O'Hearn, Horwitz).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
Both lineups confirmed via statsapi. The series storyline drives the day: the Cardinals enter on a four-game win streak with three straight wins at PNC Park, while the Pirates have lost five in a row. The Pirates send their ace (Skenes) to try to avoid a sweep; the Cardinals counter with their less-established starter in Dobbins.
Roster note: The catchers in the 2H battery table (Narváez, Wong) are not on the Cardinals' active roster -- that pairing data reflects Dobbins' prior team. Tonight's scheduled catcher is Pedro Pagés. See Section 2H for the fresh-battery scouting angle.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | 18 | 18 | 3 | .167 | .167 | .222 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Alec Burleson | 18 | 17 | 6 | .353 | .389 | .412 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Pedro Pagés | 9 | 9 | 2 | .222 | .222 | .222 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Nolan Gorman | 8 | 8 | 2 | .250 | .250 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Victor Scott | 7 | 7 | 2 | .286 | .286 | .571 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jordan Walker | 7 | 6 | 1 | .167 | .286 | .167 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Small sample: Pedro Pagés (9 PA), Nolan Gorman (8 PA), Victor Scott (7 PA), Jordan Walker (7 PA).
Burleson is the only Cardinal with both meaningful sample (18 PA) and meaningful production against Skenes (.353 / .389 / .412 with 1 BB and just 3 K). Winn has the same 18 PA but with .167 / .167 / .222 -- four punchouts, zero walks. Below those two, every line is a small-sample read: Scott's .571 SLG comes on 7 PA, and Gorman, Pagés, and Walker are all under 10 PA. Wetherholt, Herrera, and Church are not in the BvP table -- no career history vs Skenes.
Bench note: Urías and Saggese have no BvP history vs Skenes. No significant bench BvP data.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Hearn | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Mangum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Ryan O'Hearn (2 PA), Jake Mangum (1 PA).
The Pirates are essentially blind against Dobbins -- only O'Hearn (2 PA) and Mangum (1 PA) carry any career history, and both samples are noise. Cruz, Reynolds, Lowe, Horwitz, Gonzales, Griffin, and Davis have no BvP history with Dobbins. The Pirates lineup will be reading him fresh, which can cut both ways: a young arm without a tape record gets first-pass surprise but usually loses the second time through (see 2E).
Bench note: No bench BvP history vs Dobbins.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Victor Scott L | 332 | .221 | .310 | .317 | 5 | 31 | 75 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 276 | .225 | .264 | .364 | 9 | 12 | 72 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
Skenes throws right, so this 2025 vs RHP table is the relevant lane. Burleson (.296 / .353 / .478) leads the carry, with Herrera (.268 / .343 / .399) the secondary anchor. Winn's 2025 line vs RHP is solid contact-and-OBP (.251 / .309) but light slug. Gorman and Walker are the structural concerns -- both under .210 against same-side handedness (Walker R vs RHP, Gorman L vs RHP -- both 2025 lines), with K rates that have not yet shown a fix. Church's 51-PA 2025 line vs RHP (.114 / .216 / .182) is small-sample but consistent with the 2L K%/BB% profile.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds B | 167 | .257 | .335 | .439 | 6 | 18 | 49 |
| Brandon Lowe L | 147 | .194 | .231 | .317 | 5 | 5 | 45 |
| Jake Mangum B | 137 | .279 | .309 | .341 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| Oneil Cruz L | 125 | .102 | .224 | .176 | 1 | 16 | 44 |
| Ryan O'Hearn L | 119 | .264 | .345 | .443 | 3 | 10 | 28 |
| Nick Gonzales R | 99 | .242 | .303 | .385 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| Henry Davis R | 62 | .140 | .210 | .298 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| Spencer Horwitz L | 51 | .186 | .314 | .279 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
This table is the opponent's 2025 line vs LHP, which is the wrong-hand pull for today's matchup -- Dobbins throws right. Read it as a structural reference rather than the live read; the operative same-side question for Dobbins (vs RHB) sits in 2D. The standout takeaway here is Cruz's .102 / .224 / .176 against LHP -- if a Cardinals lefty arm enters in middle innings, Cruz becomes a more aggressive matchup target.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins | vs LHB | 124 | .267 | .315 | .431 | .698 | 3 | 20 |
| Hunter Dobbins | vs RHB | 132 | .248 | .311 | .372 | .620 | 3 | 25 |
| Paul Skenes | vs LHB | 395 | .209 | .271 | .333 | .542 | 7 | 125 |
| Paul Skenes | vs RHB | 341 | .185 | .226 | .275 | .460 | 4 | 93 |
Skenes is harder on right-handed bats (.185 / .226 / .275 OPS .460) than on lefties (.209 / .271 / .333 OPS .542). The Cardinals' 5 LHB, 4 RHB construction means the lefties are the relatively higher-slug lane, but "relatively" is doing heavy lifting -- both sides of Skenes' platoon stay under .550 OPS. For Dobbins, lefties hit him harder (.431 SLG vs LHB, .372 SLG vs RHB), and the Pirates run 4 LHB plus 2 switch-hitters -- expect Cruz, Lowe, O'Hearn, and Horwitz to be the structural at-risk matchups.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins | Away | 98 | 23.0 | 4.70 | 12 | 8 | 3 |
| Hunter Dobbins | Home | 158 | 38.0 | 2.61 | 33 | 9 | 3 |
| Paul Skenes | Away | 381 | 96.1 | 1.96 | 117 | 24 | 5 |
| Paul Skenes | Home | 355 | 92.1 | 1.75 | 101 | 18 | 6 |
Today's game is at PNC Park -- Dobbins is pitching away (4.70 career road ERA), Skenes is pitching at home (1.75 career home ERA). The home/away gap is the larger split on the Dobbins side: 4.70 on the road, 2.61 at home. The K rate also drops sharply on the road (12 K in 23.0 IP away vs 33 in 38.0 IP at home). Skenes' home/road split is essentially flat -- there is no road-team relief for the Cardinals to chase on this end.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins | TTO1 | 116 | .208 | .302 | .510 | 1 | 21 | 10 |
| Hunter Dobbins | TTO2 | 105 | .300 | .480 | .780 | 3 | 21 | 5 |
| Hunter Dobbins | TTO3 | 35 | .290 | .484 | .774 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Paul Skenes | TTO1 | 292 | .199 | .272 | .471 | 2 | 94 | 14 |
| Paul Skenes | TTO2 | 286 | .189 | .291 | .480 | 3 | 85 | 16 |
| Paul Skenes | TTO3 | 158 | .212 | .397 | .609 | 6 | 39 | 12 |
Dobbins has a sharp 2025 TTO1-to-TTO2 cliff: .208 AVG / .510 OPS on the first pass through the order jumps to .300 AVG / .780 OPS on the second pass through the order. That is the Pirates' window, typically innings 4-6. TTO3 stays elevated (.290 / .774 OPS) but on a 35 PA sample. Skenes runs the opposite shape -- dominant on the first pass and second pass through the order (both under .490 OPS), then a real third-pass-through-the-order break (.397 SLG, 6 HR) typically innings 7+. The Cardinals' best chance to score off Skenes is late, but it requires getting him there with the score still close.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate sits in the 68-72% range. Romero's 88.5% strand on 26 inherited runners is elite firefighter work -- if Dobbins leaves traffic in the middle innings, Romero is the call. Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) both sit well below league average and are the structural risk if pulled into a jam. Leahy at 62.1% is below average but on the largest sample in the bullpen (29 IR).
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins | 186 | 50.0% | 24.2% | 25.8% |
| Paul Skenes | 459 | 45.5% | 31.2% | 23.1% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- PIT
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz | .240 | .590 | .043 |
| Henry Davis | .220 | .526 | .028 |
| Nick Gonzales | .283 | .584 | .099 |
| Spencer Horwitz | .241 | .671 | .109 |
| Brandon Lowe | .225 | .678 | .071 |
| Jake Mangum | .344 | .557 | .086 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | .294 | .611 | .134 |
| Bryan Reynolds | .213 | .600 | .198 |
Dobbins is a 50.0% career GB pitcher; the 2025 GB profile of the Pirates' lineup is GB-heavy at the top and bottom (Cruz 52.7%, Mangum 62.0%) but with high-line-drive bats (Lowe, Horwitz, Reynolds, Gonzales) sprinkled through the middle. The line-drive lane is the danger -- Lowe carries a .678 career LD AVG, Horwitz .671, O'Hearn .611. If Dobbins misses up, those are the at-bats that turn into doubles. Skenes' 45.5% career GB rate against Cardinals contact bats Wetherholt (no career data) and Burleson (42.0% 2025 GB rate) is a roughly even profile -- nothing extreme to exploit.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Narváez | 11 | 47.0 | 3.45 | .257 | -- | -- |
| Connor Wong | 3 | 13.2 | 3.29 | .259 | -- | -- |
The catchers above (Narváez, Wong) are not on the Cardinals' active roster -- the pairing data reflects Dobbins' prior team. Tonight's scheduled catcher is Pedro Pagés, who has 0 career IP paired with Dobbins in this dataset. That fresh battery is a scouting angle on its own: pop-time calibration is not yet wired in, signal sequencing is new, and the first pass through the order is when miscall risk is highest. Pagés' season fielding (110 G at C, .994 Fld%) is reliable -- the question is the new pairing, not the catcher's hands.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Oneil Cruz: 38 SB / 5 CS career, 88.4% success. This is the alpha SB threat in the lineup -- Cruz at first base is an automatic running situation.
Jake Mangum: 27 SB / 6 CS, 81.8% success. Speed-first bottom-of-order bat; if he reaches in front of Cruz/Lowe, the bag is in play.
Brandon Lowe: 3 SB / 2 CS, 60% -- not a runner.
Ryan O'Hearn: 3 SB / 1 CS, 75% -- situational, not a primary threat.
Bryan Reynolds: 3 SB / 2 CS, 60% -- not a runner.
Henry Davis: 2 SB / 1 CS, 66.7% -- not a runner.
Cardinals battery is fresh (Pagés-Dobbins, 0 career IP together). Cruz on first is the most exploitable handoff -- pop-time signal calibration has not been built up in this pairing.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott | CF | 136 | 3 | 6 | 0.982 |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Victor Scott | RF | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Victor Scott | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Tonight's alignment puts Wetherholt at 2B (no career fielding sample in this dataset -- a fresh defensive read), Gorman at 3B, Burleson at 1B, Walker in RF, Winn at SS, Church in LF, Scott in CF, Pagés behind the plate, Herrera at DH. Winn (.994 Fld% at SS, 64 DP) and Pagés (.994 at C) are the high-end gloves in the picture. Gorman at 3B (.950 across 54 G) is the structurally weaker spot -- against a 50.0% GB pitcher in Dobbins, third-base hops will be a recurring test.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
PNC Park plays as a pitcher-leaning venue historically. Recent Cardinals-Pirates head-to-head: 2025 (6-7), 2024 (8-5), 2023 (4-9), 2022 (13-6). The Cardinals have already taken the first three games of this four-game series at PNC (5-4, 11-7, 4-2 -- see Recent Results), so today's game is a sweep attempt against PIT's ace.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Victor Scott | 463 | 111 | 24.0% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
Cardinals 2025 K/BB profile vs a 29.5% K%, 5.7% BB% career strikeout machine in Skenes is uncomfortable. Gorman (33.8% 2025 K%), Walker (31.8% 2025 K%), Pagés (27.5% 2025 K%), and Church (27.7% 2025 K% on a 65 PA sample) are all above league average and structurally exposed. Burleson (14.5% 2025 K%) is the contact insulator at the top of the order.
Pirates
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 654 | 173 | 26.5% | 57 | 8.7% |
| Brandon Lowe | 553 | 149 | 26.9% | 38 | 6.9% |
| Oneil Cruz | 544 | 174 | 32.0% | 64 | 11.8% |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 544 | 109 | 20.0% | 58 | 10.7% |
| Jake Mangum | 428 | 64 | 15.0% | 19 | 4.4% |
| Spencer Horwitz | 411 | 73 | 17.8% | 44 | 10.7% |
| Nick Gonzales | 408 | 73 | 17.9% | 21 | 5.1% |
| Henry Davis | 281 | 76 | 27.0% | 18 | 6.4% |
Pirates 2025 K profile is also strikeout-heavy at the top -- Cruz 32.0%, Lowe 26.9%, Reynolds 26.5%, Davis 27.0%. Against Dobbins' modest 17.6% career K%, this is more about whether his walks bite him than chasing the K. O'Hearn (10.7% 2025 BB%) and Cruz (11.8% 2025 BB%) are the patient bats. Mangum (15.0% 2025 K%) is the contact bat at the bottom of the order.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Victor Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Cardinals 2025 GB profile shows Gorman as the lone fly-ball lean (41.7% FB) and Herrera leaning ground (52.6% GB). Skenes runs a 45.5% career GB rate -- closest to the Cardinals' middle of the lineup. Gorman's FB tilt against Skenes' lower HR-allow rate is a low-percentage power lane.
Pirates
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 398 | 49.5% | 21.6% | 28.9% |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 357 | 47.6% | 27.2% | 25.2% |
| Jake Mangum | 337 | 62.0% | 17.2% | 20.8% |
| Brandon Lowe | 327 | 42.2% | 30.3% | 27.5% |
| Nick Gonzales | 303 | 47.9% | 26.7% | 25.4% |
| Spencer Horwitz | 280 | 40.0% | 32.9% | 27.1% |
| Oneil Cruz | 277 | 52.7% | 25.3% | 22.0% |
| Henry Davis | 169 | 34.9% | 42.6% | 22.5% |
Pirates 2025 GB rates run mostly in the 40-50% band, with Mangum (62.0% GB) the extreme ground-ball bat and Davis (42.6% FB) the one fly-ball tilt. Against Dobbins' 50.0% career GB rate, the Mangum and Cruz at-bats are squarely in the GB collision lane -- expect ground balls toward Wetherholt at 2B and Winn at SS to be high-volume. Davis' FB tilt against Dobbins is a power lane to watch with two strikes.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 187.2 | 216 | 29.5% | 42 | 5.7% | 5.14 |
| Hunter Dobbins | 61.0 | 45 | 17.6% | 17 | 6.6% | 2.65 |
Skenes' 2025 K/BB ratio of 5.14 is elite -- 29.5% 2025 K%, 5.7% 2025 BB%. The Cardinals' 2026-to-date offense averages a 22-23% team K rate against Skenes' overall body of work; expect punchouts to dominate the early innings. Dobbins' 2025 K/BB ratio of 2.65 is league-average territory (17.6% 2025 K%, 6.6% 2025 BB%). The 2026 to date BB% (26.3%) is a 4.1-IP small-sample spike that has not been corrected yet -- if it persists, Pittsburgh's patient bats (Cruz 11.8% 2025 BB%, O'Hearn 10.7% 2025 BB%) collect free baserunners early.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Burleson vs Skenes. Burleson is .353 / .389 / .412 in 18 PA career vs Skenes -- 1 BB, 3 K, no HR. He is the only Cardinal with both a usable sample and a positive line, and he stacks 2025 platoon health (.296 / .353 / .478 vs RHP) on top. Burleson is the best-priced at-bat in the lineup today.
Cruz vs Dobbins. No BvP history, but the surrounding profile points to a tough matchup for Dobbins: Cruz hits .240 GB AVG / .590 LD AVG career, Dobbins is a 50.0% career GB pitcher, and Cruz is a 32.0% 2025 K% bat. The K-or-line-drive shape favors the offense -- if Dobbins misses up, Cruz's line-drive lane is in play, and the at-bat starts the running game (88.4% career SB success on a fresh battery).
Wetherholt vs Skenes (TTO3). Wetherholt has no career BvP vs Skenes and no career platoon data in this dataset -- he is reading the ace fresh. The third pass through the order (.397 SLG, 6 HR allowed) is the only window where Skenes' 2025 splits visibly soften, and Wetherholt is leading off, so he is most likely to see a fourth at-bat in the late innings.
X-factor: Romero vs Cruz/Lowe/O'Hearn. If Dobbins leaves a middle-innings jam, JoJo Romero (88.5% 2025 strand rate, 26 IR) is the call against a left-handed PIT heart. Cruz's 2025 .102 / .224 / .176 line vs LHP is the most specific exploit point in the day's matchups.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Paul Skenes in their career?
2. How has Hunter Dobbins fared against Oneil Cruz in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Brandon Lowe in their career?
4. What are Paul Skenes's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Oneil Cruz's splits vs LHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at PNC Park in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025