NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 18-10 | - | L1 |
| Cubs | 17-11 | 1.0 | L2 |
| Pirates | 16-12 | 2.0 | L1 |
| Brewers | 14-13 | 3.5 | W1 |
| Cardinals | 14-13 | 3.5 | L4 |
NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 18-10 | - | L1 |
| Cubs | 17-11 | 1.0 | L2 |
| Pirates | 16-12 | 2.0 | L1 |
| Brewers | 14-13 | 3.5 | W1 |
| Cardinals | 14-13 | 3.5 | L4 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | SEA | Home | L 2-3 |
| Apr 25 | SEA | Home | L 9-11 |
| Apr 24 | SEA | Home | L 2-3 |
| Apr 22 | MIA | Away | L 1-4 |
| Apr 21 | MIA | Away | W 5-3 |
| Apr 20 | MIA | Away | L 3-5 |
| Apr 19 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 (10) |
| Apr 18 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 |
| Apr 17 | HOU | Away | W 9-4 |
| Apr 15 | CLE | Home | W 5-3 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Dustin May (R) -- STL
2026 to date: 3-2, 5.84 ERA, 24.2 IP, 20 K, 5 BB, 1.54 WHIP, 18.9% K%, 4.7% BB%, 41.3% GB%. Career baseline: 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, 2.20 K/BB across 132.1 IP. Strikeouts down and contact up early in 2026; the road/home split (6.28 away vs 3.24 home) flags PNC as the wrong side of his ledger tonight.
Mason Montgomery (L) -- PIT
2026 to date: 1-0, 3.97 ERA, 11.1 IP, 21 K, 6 BB, 1.50 WHIP, 41.2% K%, 11.8% BB%, 38.5% GB% over 1 GS. Career baseline: 30.1% K%, 12.9% BB%, 2.33 K/BB across 46.0 IP. High-strikeout, high-walk profile -- swing-and-miss is real, but free passes are part of the package.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Burleson | 1B | L |
| Herrera | C | R |
| Wetherholt | SS | L |
| Walker | RF | R |
| Fermín | 2B | R |
| Winn | SS | R |
| Church | LF | L |
| Gorman | 2B | L |
| Pagés | C | R |
| Urías | 3B | R |
| Saggese | 2B | R |
| Scott | CF | L |
| Pozo | C | R |
Handedness: 8 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Fermín, Winn, Pagés, Urías, Saggese, Pozo), 5 LHB (Burleson, Wetherholt, Church, Gorman, Scott).
Pirates (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Cook | OF | R |
| Lowe | 2B | L |
| Reynolds | RF | S |
| Davis | C | R |
| Mangum | LF | S |
| Bart | C | R |
| Griffin | SS | R |
| Ozuna | DH | R |
| Gonzales | 2B | R |
| Yorke | 2B | R |
| Cruz | CF | L |
| O'Hearn | 1B | L |
| Horwitz | 1B | L |
Handedness: 7 RHB (Cook, Davis, Bart, Griffin, Ozuna, Gonzales, Yorke), 4 LHB (Lowe, Cruz, O'Hearn, Horwitz).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No Phase 2 web search performed for injuries on this run. Roster pool reflects the 26-man active list as queried by Phase 1; both teams' position-player groups are intact at the rostered level.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Saggese | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Church | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Burleson | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ramon Urias | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- | 1.000 | -- | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Small sample: Pedro Pagés (1 PA), Thomas Saggese (1 PA), Nathan Church (1 PA), Alec Burleson (1 PA), Ramon Urias (1 PA), Jordan Walker (1 PA), Nolan Gorman (1 PA).
Every BvP entry against Montgomery is a 1-PA snapshot -- statistically meaningless. Walker's 1-for-1 and Gorman's walk are the only non-outs in the table. Treat this matchup as effectively blank: STL is facing Montgomery without history.
Bench note: Herrera, Wetherholt, Fermin, Winn, Scott, Pozo -- No data vs Montgomery. No significant bench BvP history.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna | 11 | 8 | 5 | .625 | .727 | 1.125 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Joey Bart | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Oneil Cruz | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | 1.333 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Gonzales | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Spencer Horwitz | 3 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .667 | .500 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brandon Lowe | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Small sample: Joey Bart (4 PA), Oneil Cruz (3 PA), Nick Gonzales (3 PA), Spencer Horwitz (3 PA), Brandon Lowe (1 PA), Bryan Reynolds (3 PA).
Ozuna is the only meaningful sample -- 11 PA with 5 hits, a HR, and only 1 K. Beyond him, Cruz's 1-for-3 is a HR (1.333 SLG), Reynolds is 1-for-1 with 2 BB, and Horwitz is 2-for-3 reached. The BvP signal is uniformly hostile to May, and the Pirates' top hitters have either historic success or productive plate appearances against him.
Bench note: Cook, Davis, Mangum, Griffin, Yorke, O'Hearn -- No data vs May. No significant bench BvP history.
DANGER BAT: Marcell Ozuna
Ozuna is 5-for-8 (.625) against May with a HR, 2 walks, and only 1 K in 11 PA -- the only Pirates hitter with double-digit BvP and the only one above the .400 AVG threshold. He pairs that history with a 2025 line of 24.4% K% and 15.9% BB% (elite discipline), and his 2025 vs RHP line is .235/.347/.415 across 451 PA. Plan to attack him only with the platoon shift in mind, and accept that any first-pitch fastball can leave the yard. Treat every Ozuna at-bat tonight as a high-leverage moment.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn R | 163 | .255 | .313 | .349 | 2 | 11 | 31 |
| Victor Scott L | 131 | .204 | .290 | .241 | 0 | 11 | 36 |
| Alec Burleson L | 127 | .271 | .310 | .398 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 124 | .330 | .455 | .660 | 9 | 19 | 18 |
| Ramon Urias R | 118 | .262 | .322 | .421 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 113 | .243 | .292 | .359 | 2 | 7 | 35 |
| Jordan Walker R | 107 | .255 | .318 | .347 | 2 | 8 | 32 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 93 | .220 | .301 | .439 | 5 | 10 | 25 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 68 | .273 | .279 | .348 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| Yohel Pozo R | 42 | .275 | .286 | .425 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Nathan Church L | 14 | .417 | .417 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| José Fermín R | 11 | .300 | .364 | .400 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
2025 vs LHP. Herrera (.330/.455/.660 in 124 PA, 9 HR) is the headline -- a clean R-handed hitter against a lefty starter. Urias (.421 SLG), Burleson (.271, the rare LHB who handles southpaws decently), and Walker (.347 SLG) round out the right-side production. Scott's .204/.290/.241 vs LHP is the structural weak spot if he starts -- a LHB facing a lefty with a wide platoon split.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds B | 487 | .241 | .312 | .390 | 10 | 39 | 124 |
| Marcell Ozuna R | 451 | .235 | .347 | .415 | 18 | 64 | 111 |
| Ryan O'Hearn L | 438 | .282 | .370 | .427 | 14 | 49 | 83 |
| Oneil Cruz L | 419 | .229 | .320 | .438 | 19 | 48 | 130 |
| Brandon Lowe L | 406 | .280 | .335 | .538 | 26 | 33 | 104 |
| Spencer Horwitz L | 360 | .283 | .358 | .455 | 10 | 37 | 60 |
| Nick Gonzales R | 309 | .266 | .298 | .355 | 3 | 14 | 55 |
| Jake Mangum B | 291 | .304 | .340 | .380 | 2 | 14 | 47 |
| Joey Bart R | 246 | .230 | .333 | .296 | 1 | 26 | 67 |
| Henry Davis R | 221 | .174 | .241 | .272 | 4 | 13 | 61 |
| Nick Yorke R | 47 | .178 | .213 | .267 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| Billy Cook R | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
2025 vs RHP. The lefty cluster is dangerous: Lowe (.280/.335/.538, 26 HR), O'Hearn (.282/.370/.427), Horwitz (.283/.358/.455). Cruz (.229/.320/.438, 19 HR) trades average for power. Reynolds and Mangum hit from the L side vs RHP and both run elevated 2025 lines. The right-handed pieces (Ozuna, Gonzales, Bart) are league-average against righties; Davis (.174) and Yorke (.178) are exploitable.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | vs LHB | 334 | .261 | .357 | .495 | .756 | 15 | 82 |
| Dustin May | vs RHB | 250 | .256 | .325 | .386 | .642 | 6 | 41 |
| Mason Montgomery | vs RHB | 129 | .321 | .409 | .505 | .826 | 5 | 39 |
| Mason Montgomery | vs LHB | 80 | .206 | .313 | .324 | .530 | 1 | 24 |
Two reverse-platoon arms in different ways. May handles RHB (.642 OPS) but bleeds power and walks vs LHB (.495 SLG, 15 HR in 334 PA). Montgomery is a textbook lefty who eats LHB (.530 OPS in 80 PA) but cannot get RHB out (.826 OPS in 129 PA). With STL projecting 8 RHB available and PIT showing 6 effective LHB vs RHP, both starters are exposed to the wrong side of the matchup.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | Away | 258 | 57.1 | 6.28 | 50 | 26 | 12 |
| Dustin May | Home | 326 | 75.0 | 3.24 | 73 | 30 | 9 |
| Mason Montgomery | Away | 88 | 18.2 | 9.16 | 28 | 16 | 4 |
| Mason Montgomery | Home | 121 | 27.1 | 3.62 | 35 | 11 | 2 |
Today's game is at PNC Park -- May pitching away (career 6.28 ERA, 12 HR allowed in 57.1 IP), Montgomery pitching home (career 3.62 ERA, 27.1 IP). The venue cuts against May and supports Montgomery. May's home/road delta of three full earned-run points is large enough that it should reframe expectations on his ceiling tonight.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | TTO1 | 227 | .226 | .347 | .573 | 5 | 56 | 23 |
| Dustin May | TTO2 | 220 | .290 | .508 | .798 | 9 | 44 | 17 |
| Dustin May | TTO3 | 137 | .263 | .517 | .780 | 7 | 23 | 16 |
| Mason Montgomery | TTO1 | 209 | .277 | .435 | .712 | 6 | 63 | 27 |
May's 2025 TTO line shows a sharp first-pass-to-second-pass cliff: .573 OPS in TTO1 jumps to .798 in TTO2 (+.225 OPS) and stays elevated at .780 in TTO3. Innings 4-6 are where the Cardinals lose the platoon edge. Montgomery only has TTO1 data (he's a relief-promoted starter); the 2025 .712 OPS in 209 first-pass PA suggests his second pass is uncharted territory the Cardinals can probe.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5%) is the lockdown option in any leveraged inning. Leahy (62.1%) is below average, and Svanson (50.0%) plus Graceffo (54.5%) plus Fernandez (50.0%) are all liabilities -- bringing any of them in with men on bears asymmetric risk. Last night's bullpen log was Svanson (1 ER), Stanek (clean), Romero (1 ER, the Refsnyder PH HR). Pairing matters more than role tonight.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 372 | 44.1% | 28.2% | 26.6% |
| Mason Montgomery | 112 | 43.8% | 26.8% | 25.9% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- PIT
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Bart | .280 | .745 | .098 |
| Billy Cook | .000 | -- | .667 |
| Oneil Cruz | .240 | .590 | .043 |
| Henry Davis | .220 | .526 | .028 |
| Nick Gonzales | .283 | .584 | .099 |
| Spencer Horwitz | .241 | .671 | .109 |
| Brandon Lowe | .225 | .678 | .071 |
| Jake Mangum | .344 | .557 | .086 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | .294 | .611 | .134 |
| Marcell Ozuna | .184 | .658 | .152 |
| Bryan Reynolds | .213 | .600 | .198 |
| Nick Yorke | .276 | .600 | .071 |
Both starters are right around 44% career GB%, neither extreme. The PIT lineup's 2025 GB profile leans heavy: Mangum 62.0%, Cruz 52.7%, Bart 53.2%, Reynolds 49.5%. That's a lot of contact aimed at the dirt -- against May, who runs a 41.3% GB% in the 2026 sample, expect a higher LD/FB share than the career number suggests. Davis (.028 FB AVG, 42.6% career FB rate) is the only Pirate who profiles as a giveaway when he gets airborne.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 11 | 56.0 | 4.98 | .255 | -- | -- |
| Dalton Rushing | 6 | 34.2 | 3.89 | .227 | -- | -- |
| Carlos Narváez | 4 | 21.0 | 4.71 | .299 | -- | -- |
| Austin Barnes | 2 | 12.1 | 4.38 | .250 | -- | -- |
| Connor Wong | 2 | 5.1 | 6.75 | .348 | -- | -- |
The catchers above reflect May's prior tenure -- Smith, Rushing, Barnes are Dodgers backstops; Narvaez and Wong are not on tonight's STL active roster. None of these catchers are on the Cardinals. Tonight's catcher will be one of Iván Herrera, Pedro Pagés, or Yohel Pozo, and none of the three appear in the battery data above. That makes this a fresh battery in every combination -- unfamiliar pop-time calibration, signal sequencing still being built, and a base-running threat (Cruz at 88.4%) who will probe early. Look for first-pass mistake calls and watch whether the Cardinals carry a slide-step protocol with men on first.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Oneil Cruz -- 38 SB, 5 CS, 88.4% career success rate. Premier speed threat. Will probe a fresh battery early.
Jake Mangum -- 27 SB, 6 CS, 81.8%. Plus runner with strong success rate; switch-hitter who slaps on the ground (62.0% GB%) and can leg out infield singles.
Bryan Reynolds -- 3 SB, 2 CS, 60% (low success rate; not a green-light runner).
Brandon Lowe -- 3 SB, 2 CS, 60%.
Ryan O'Hearn -- 3 SB, 1 CS, 75%.
Henry Davis -- 2 SB, 1 CS, 66.7%.
Nick Yorke -- 1 SB, 0 CS, 100%.
Joey Bart -- 1 SB, 1 CS, 50%.
The matchup is essentially Cruz plus Mangum. With a fresh STL battery against May, both are live threats whenever they reach. The bottom of the chart (Reynolds, Lowe, Bart) shouldn't be running in green-light situations.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott | CF | 136 | 3 | 6 | 0.982 |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Ramon Urias | 3B | 78 | 20 | 4 | 0.979 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Yohel Pozo | C | 46 | 0 | 5 | 0.982 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Ramon Urias | 2B | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | 2B | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Victor Scott | RF | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Yohel Pozo | 1B | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | 3B | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Victor Scott | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ramon Urias | 1B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | RF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Winn (.994 Fld% over 129 G at SS, 64 DP turned) and Pagés (.994 over 110 G) are anchors. Walker holds a .981 in RF over 108 G. Gorman at 3B is the soft spot (.950 in 54 G, 6 E) -- if he starts at the hot corner, May's 41.3% GB profile this season can find him. Herrera has only 14 G behind the plate at the MLB level this season; throwing out Cruz on a contested attempt would be a real test.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
PNC Park plays as a relatively pitcher-leaning venue historically. Recent head-to-head: 2025 STL 6-7, 2024 STL 8-5, 2023 STL 4-9, 2022 STL 13-6. The Pirates have closed the gap meaningfully since 2022, and the 2023 sweep-style dominance from Pittsburgh is the most recent multi-game data point in PIT's favor at home.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Victor Scott | 463 | 111 | 24.0% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Ramon Urias | 391 | 88 | 22.5% | 27 | 6.9% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Yohel Pozo | 168 | 22 | 13.1% | 7 | 4.2% |
| José Fermín | 70 | 10 | 14.3% | 8 | 11.4% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
2025 STL line. Gorman (33.8% K%) and Walker (31.8% K%) are the high-K bats Montgomery's 30.1% career K% will attack. Burleson (14.5%) and Pozo (13.1%) are the contact ends. Pages, Saggese, and Church carry a high-K / low-BB combo that profiles poorly vs Montgomery's high-walk style -- they will not benefit from his free passes.
Pirates
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 654 | 173 | 26.5% | 57 | 8.7% |
| Marcell Ozuna | 591 | 144 | 24.4% | 94 | 15.9% |
| Brandon Lowe | 553 | 149 | 26.9% | 38 | 6.9% |
| Oneil Cruz | 544 | 174 | 32.0% | 64 | 11.8% |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 544 | 109 | 20.0% | 58 | 10.7% |
| Jake Mangum | 428 | 64 | 15.0% | 19 | 4.4% |
| Spencer Horwitz | 411 | 73 | 17.8% | 44 | 10.7% |
| Nick Gonzales | 408 | 73 | 17.9% | 21 | 5.1% |
| Joey Bart | 332 | 93 | 28.0% | 40 | 12.0% |
| Henry Davis | 281 | 76 | 27.0% | 18 | 6.4% |
| Nick Yorke | 72 | 15 | 20.8% | 3 | 4.2% |
| Billy Cook | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0% |
2025 PIT line. Cruz (32.0%), Bart (28.0%), Lowe (26.9%), Reynolds (26.5%), and Davis (27.0%) all sit above the 25% K% threshold -- May's 21.1% career K% has paths to swing-and-miss innings. Ozuna (15.9% BB%) and Bart (12.0% BB%) are the discipline anchors who punish a pitcher who falls behind. Mangum (4.4% BB%) is the swing-first leadoff candidate and pairs with his 62.0% GB% as a pure contact engine.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Victor Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| Ramon Urias | 253 | 45.1% | 29.2% | 25.7% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Yohel Pozo | 133 | 40.6% | 33.1% | 26.3% |
| José Fermín | 46 | 37.0% | 32.6% | 30.4% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
2025 STL profile. Gorman (30.2% GB / 41.7% FB) is the lift-and-air bat who can punish Montgomery's 26.8% career FB% allowed. Herrera (52.6% GB) and Walker (48.9% GB) are the ground-ball ends -- against Montgomery's 43.8% GB profile, expect more GB-on-GB at-bats. Church's 67.6% GB rate in a small sample skews him toward infield rollers.
Pirates
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 398 | 49.5% | 21.6% | 28.9% |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 357 | 47.6% | 27.2% | 25.2% |
| Jake Mangum | 337 | 62.0% | 17.2% | 20.8% |
| Brandon Lowe | 327 | 42.2% | 30.3% | 27.5% |
| Marcell Ozuna | 322 | 43.8% | 32.6% | 23.6% |
| Nick Gonzales | 303 | 47.9% | 26.7% | 25.4% |
| Spencer Horwitz | 280 | 40.0% | 32.9% | 27.1% |
| Oneil Cruz | 277 | 52.7% | 25.3% | 22.0% |
| Joey Bart | 188 | 53.2% | 21.8% | 25.0% |
| Henry Davis | 169 | 34.9% | 42.6% | 22.5% |
| Nick Yorke | 53 | 54.7% | 26.4% | 18.9% |
| Billy Cook | 5 | 40.0% | 60.0% | 0.0% |
2025 PIT profile. Heavy GB tilt at the top: Mangum 62.0%, Bart 53.2%, Cruz 52.7%, Reynolds 49.5%. Against May's 41.3% GB% in 2026 (career 44.1%), the ground-ball cluster favors hitters when balls find the corners. Davis (42.6% FB%) is the rare lift hitter and has the worst FB AVG (.028) of the lineup -- if May elevates to him, he's a free out.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 132.1 | 123 | 21.1% | 56 | 9.6% | 2.20 |
| Mason Montgomery | 46.0 | 63 | 30.1% | 27 | 12.9% | 2.33 |
2026 to date: May 18.9% K%, 4.7% BB%. Career baseline: May 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, 2.20 K/BB. Walks are way down in the small 2026 sample but so are strikeouts. Montgomery has only the career figure (30.1% K%, 12.9% BB%, 2.33 K/BB across 46.0 IP) to lean on -- the 2026 11.1 IP sample (41.2% K%, 11.8% BB%) hints at strikeouts trending higher, walks roughly stable. Both arms run elevated walk rates by career; Cardinals discipline (Burleson, Herrera, Fermin) translates to free passes.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Marcell Ozuna vs Dustin May. The largest BvP sample in the matchup -- 11 PA, 5-for-8, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K (.625/.727/1.125, see Section 2B). Ozuna's 2025 BB% of 15.9% (Section 2L) means May cannot pitch around him without consequence. Highest-leverage at-bat of the night every time he comes up.
Cardinals RHB vs Mason Montgomery. Montgomery's career split allows .321/.409/.505/.826 OPS to RHB (Section 2D). The active-roster pool gives STL 8 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Urias, Pages, Saggese, Winn, Pozo, Fermin). Herrera's 2025 vs LHP line of .330/.455/.660 (Section 2C) is the cleanest individual matchup edge.
Oneil Cruz on the bases. 38 SB / 88.4% career rate (Section 2I). Tonight's STL battery has zero career innings paired with May (Section 2H), and Herrera has only 14 G behind the plate this season (Section 2J). Even Cruz's first-base presence flips the inning.
Watchlist: May TTO2 inning 4-6 window (career OPS jumps from .573 to .798, Section 2E). May away from home (career 6.28 ERA, Section 2D-HA). Romero as the bullpen's best lockdown arm (88.5% strand rate, Section 2F). Davis as a free out when elevated (.028 career FB AVG, Section 2G; 42.6% career FB rate, Section 2M). Cardinals high-K bats (Gorman 33.8%, Walker 31.8%, Section 2L) facing Montgomery's 30.1% career K%.
X-factor. The fresh battery. Five different catchers caught May in his prior career (Section 2H), zero of them on tonight's Cardinals roster. Whichever STL catcher starts is calling pitches on instinct and walking into a stolen base threat (Cruz at 88.4%) cold.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
- Show me Dustin May's pitch mix and command tonight inning by inning.
- Update Marcell Ozuna's BvP line vs May after each PA.
- Track Oneil Cruz's stolen base attempts and pop-time data tonight.
- How is Mason Montgomery's K-BB ratio trending after 50 pitches?
- Compare May's TTO2 OPS allowed tonight to his career .798 baseline.
- Which Cardinals RHB has the best xwOBA so far against Montgomery's fastball?
- Show STL bullpen leverage index when each reliever enters tonight.
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025