NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Reds18-10-L1
Cubs17-111.0L2
Pirates16-122.0L1
Brewers14-133.5W1
Cardinals14-133.5L4

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Reds18-10-L1
Cubs17-111.0L2
Pirates16-122.0L1
Brewers14-133.5W1
Cardinals14-133.5L4

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Apr 26SEAHomeL 2-3
Apr 25SEAHomeL 9-11
Apr 24SEAHomeL 2-3
Apr 22MIAAwayL 1-4
Apr 21MIAAwayW 5-3
Apr 20MIAAwayL 3-5
Apr 19HOUAwayW 7-5 (10)
Apr 18HOUAwayW 7-5
Apr 17HOUAwayW 9-4
Apr 15CLEHomeW 5-3

STARTING PITCHERS

Dustin May (R) -- STL

2026 to date: 3-2, 5.84 ERA, 24.2 IP, 20 K, 5 BB, 1.54 WHIP, 18.9% K%, 4.7% BB%, 41.3% GB%. Career baseline: 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, 2.20 K/BB across 132.1 IP. Strikeouts down and contact up early in 2026; the road/home split (6.28 away vs 3.24 home) flags PNC as the wrong side of his ledger tonight.

Mason Montgomery (L) -- PIT

2026 to date: 1-0, 3.97 ERA, 11.1 IP, 21 K, 6 BB, 1.50 WHIP, 41.2% K%, 11.8% BB%, 38.5% GB% over 1 GS. Career baseline: 30.1% K%, 12.9% BB%, 2.33 K/BB across 46.0 IP. High-strikeout, high-walk profile -- swing-and-miss is real, but free passes are part of the package.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

PlayerPosBats
Burleson1BL
HerreraCR
WetherholtSSL
WalkerRFR
Fermín2BR
WinnSSR
ChurchLFL
Gorman2BL
PagésCR
Urías3BR
Saggese2BR
ScottCFL
PozoCR

Handedness: 8 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Fermín, Winn, Pagés, Urías, Saggese, Pozo), 5 LHB (Burleson, Wetherholt, Church, Gorman, Scott).

Pirates (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

PlayerPosBats
CookOFR
Lowe2BL
ReynoldsRFS
DavisCR
MangumLFS
BartCR
GriffinSSR
OzunaDHR
Gonzales2BR
Yorke2BR
CruzCFL
O'Hearn1BL
Horwitz1BL

Handedness: 7 RHB (Cook, Davis, Bart, Griffin, Ozuna, Gonzales, Yorke), 4 LHB (Lowe, Cruz, O'Hearn, Horwitz).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No Phase 2 web search performed for injuries on this run. Roster pool reflects the 26-man active list as queried by Phase 1; both teams' position-player groups are intact at the rostered level.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Pedro Pagés110.000.000.000000
Thomas Saggese110.000.000.000001
Nathan Church110.000.000.000000
Alec Burleson110.000.000.000000
Ramon Urias110.000.000.000000
Jordan Walker1111.0001.0001.000000
Nolan Gorman100--1.000--010

Small sample: Pedro Pagés (1 PA), Thomas Saggese (1 PA), Nathan Church (1 PA), Alec Burleson (1 PA), Ramon Urias (1 PA), Jordan Walker (1 PA), Nolan Gorman (1 PA).

Every BvP entry against Montgomery is a 1-PA snapshot -- statistically meaningless. Walker's 1-for-1 and Gorman's walk are the only non-outs in the table. Treat this matchup as effectively blank: STL is facing Montgomery without history.

Bench note: Herrera, Wetherholt, Fermin, Winn, Scott, Pozo -- No data vs Montgomery. No significant bench BvP history.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Marcell Ozuna1185.625.7271.125121
Joey Bart441.250.250.500002
Oneil Cruz331.333.3331.333101
Nick Gonzales330.000.000.000000
Spencer Horwitz321.500.667.500011
Brandon Lowe1111.0001.0004.000100
Bryan Reynolds3111.0001.0001.000020

Small sample: Joey Bart (4 PA), Oneil Cruz (3 PA), Nick Gonzales (3 PA), Spencer Horwitz (3 PA), Brandon Lowe (1 PA), Bryan Reynolds (3 PA).

Ozuna is the only meaningful sample -- 11 PA with 5 hits, a HR, and only 1 K. Beyond him, Cruz's 1-for-3 is a HR (1.333 SLG), Reynolds is 1-for-1 with 2 BB, and Horwitz is 2-for-3 reached. The BvP signal is uniformly hostile to May, and the Pirates' top hitters have either historic success or productive plate appearances against him.

Bench note: Cook, Davis, Mangum, Griffin, Yorke, O'Hearn -- No data vs May. No significant bench BvP history.

DANGER BAT: Marcell Ozuna

Ozuna is 5-for-8 (.625) against May with a HR, 2 walks, and only 1 K in 11 PA -- the only Pirates hitter with double-digit BvP and the only one above the .400 AVG threshold. He pairs that history with a 2025 line of 24.4% K% and 15.9% BB% (elite discipline), and his 2025 vs RHP line is .235/.347/.415 across 451 PA. Plan to attack him only with the platoon shift in mind, and accept that any first-pitch fastball can leave the yard. Treat every Ozuna at-bat tonight as a high-leverage moment.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Masyn Winn R163.255.313.34921131
Victor Scott L131.204.290.24101136
Alec Burleson L127.271.310.3983720
Ivan Herrera R124.330.455.66091918
Ramon Urias R118.262.322.42141031
Pedro Pagés R113.243.292.3592735
Jordan Walker R107.255.318.3472832
Nolan Gorman L93.220.301.43951025
Thomas Saggese R68.273.279.3481120
Yohel Pozo R42.275.286.425116
Nathan Church L14.417.417.500004
José Fermín R11.300.364.400012

2025 vs LHP. Herrera (.330/.455/.660 in 124 PA, 9 HR) is the headline -- a clean R-handed hitter against a lefty starter. Urias (.421 SLG), Burleson (.271, the rare LHB who handles southpaws decently), and Walker (.347 SLG) round out the right-side production. Scott's .204/.290/.241 vs LHP is the structural weak spot if he starts -- a LHB facing a lefty with a wide platoon split.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Bryan Reynolds B487.241.312.3901039124
Marcell Ozuna R451.235.347.4151864111
Ryan O'Hearn L438.282.370.427144983
Oneil Cruz L419.229.320.4381948130
Brandon Lowe L406.280.335.5382633104
Spencer Horwitz L360.283.358.455103760
Nick Gonzales R309.266.298.35531455
Jake Mangum B291.304.340.38021447
Joey Bart R246.230.333.29612667
Henry Davis R221.174.241.27241361
Nick Yorke R47.178.213.2671211
Billy Cook R2.000.000.000001

2025 vs RHP. The lefty cluster is dangerous: Lowe (.280/.335/.538, 26 HR), O'Hearn (.282/.370/.427), Horwitz (.283/.358/.455). Cruz (.229/.320/.438, 19 HR) trades average for power. Reynolds and Mangum hit from the L side vs RHP and both run elevated 2025 lines. The right-handed pieces (Ozuna, Gonzales, Bart) are league-average against righties; Davis (.174) and Yorke (.178) are exploitable.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Dustin Mayvs LHB334.261.357.495.7561582
Dustin Mayvs RHB250.256.325.386.642641
Mason Montgomeryvs RHB129.321.409.505.826539
Mason Montgomeryvs LHB80.206.313.324.530124

Two reverse-platoon arms in different ways. May handles RHB (.642 OPS) but bleeds power and walks vs LHB (.495 SLG, 15 HR in 334 PA). Montgomery is a textbook lefty who eats LHB (.530 OPS in 80 PA) but cannot get RHB out (.826 OPS in 129 PA). With STL projecting 8 RHB available and PIT showing 6 effective LHB vs RHP, both starters are exposed to the wrong side of the matchup.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Dustin MayAway25857.16.28502612
Dustin MayHome32675.03.2473309
Mason MontgomeryAway8818.29.1628164
Mason MontgomeryHome12127.13.6235112

Today's game is at PNC Park -- May pitching away (career 6.28 ERA, 12 HR allowed in 57.1 IP), Montgomery pitching home (career 3.62 ERA, 27.1 IP). The venue cuts against May and supports Montgomery. May's home/road delta of three full earned-run points is large enough that it should reframe expectations on his ceiling tonight.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Dustin MayTTO1227.226.347.57355623
Dustin MayTTO2220.290.508.79894417
Dustin MayTTO3137.263.517.78072316
Mason MontgomeryTTO1209.277.435.71266327

May's 2025 TTO line shows a sharp first-pass-to-second-pass cliff: .573 OPS in TTO1 jumps to .798 in TTO2 (+.225 OPS) and stays elevated at .780 in TTO3. Innings 4-6 are where the Cardinals lose the platoon edge. Montgomery only has TTO1 data (he's a relief-promoted starter); the 2025 .712 OPS in 209 first-pass PA suggests his second pass is uncharted territory the Cardinals can probe.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Ryan Fernandez8450.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5%) is the lockdown option in any leveraged inning. Leahy (62.1%) is below average, and Svanson (50.0%) plus Graceffo (54.5%) plus Fernandez (50.0%) are all liabilities -- bringing any of them in with men on bears asymmetric risk. Last night's bullpen log was Svanson (1 ER), Stanek (clean), Romero (1 ER, the Refsnyder PH HR). Pairing matters more than role tonight.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Dustin May37244.1%28.2%26.6%
Mason Montgomery11243.8%26.8%25.9%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- PIT

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Joey Bart.280.745.098
Billy Cook.000--.667
Oneil Cruz.240.590.043
Henry Davis.220.526.028
Nick Gonzales.283.584.099
Spencer Horwitz.241.671.109
Brandon Lowe.225.678.071
Jake Mangum.344.557.086
Ryan O'Hearn.294.611.134
Marcell Ozuna.184.658.152
Bryan Reynolds.213.600.198
Nick Yorke.276.600.071

Both starters are right around 44% career GB%, neither extreme. The PIT lineup's 2025 GB profile leans heavy: Mangum 62.0%, Cruz 52.7%, Bart 53.2%, Reynolds 49.5%. That's a lot of contact aimed at the dirt -- against May, who runs a 41.3% GB% in the 2026 sample, expect a higher LD/FB share than the career number suggests. Davis (.028 FB AVG, 42.6% career FB rate) is the only Pirate who profiles as a giveaway when he gets airborne.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Will Smith1156.04.98.255----
Dalton Rushing634.23.89.227----
Carlos Narváez421.04.71.299----
Austin Barnes212.14.38.250----
Connor Wong25.16.75.348----

The catchers above reflect May's prior tenure -- Smith, Rushing, Barnes are Dodgers backstops; Narvaez and Wong are not on tonight's STL active roster. None of these catchers are on the Cardinals. Tonight's catcher will be one of Iván Herrera, Pedro Pagés, or Yohel Pozo, and none of the three appear in the battery data above. That makes this a fresh battery in every combination -- unfamiliar pop-time calibration, signal sequencing still being built, and a base-running threat (Cruz at 88.4%) who will probe early. Look for first-pass mistake calls and watch whether the Cardinals carry a slide-step protocol with men on first.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Oneil Cruz -- 38 SB, 5 CS, 88.4% career success rate. Premier speed threat. Will probe a fresh battery early.

Jake Mangum -- 27 SB, 6 CS, 81.8%. Plus runner with strong success rate; switch-hitter who slaps on the ground (62.0% GB%) and can leg out infield singles.

Bryan Reynolds -- 3 SB, 2 CS, 60% (low success rate; not a green-light runner).

Brandon Lowe -- 3 SB, 2 CS, 60%.

Ryan O'Hearn -- 3 SB, 1 CS, 75%.

Henry Davis -- 2 SB, 1 CS, 66.7%.

Nick Yorke -- 1 SB, 0 CS, 100%.

Joey Bart -- 1 SB, 1 CS, 50%.

The matchup is essentially Cruz plus Mangum. With a fresh STL battery against May, both are live threats whenever they reach. The bottom of the chart (Reynolds, Lowe, Bart) shouldn't be running in green-light situations.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Victor ScottCF136360.982
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Pedro PagésC110650.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Ramon Urias3B782040.979
Nolan Gorman3B541160.950
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Yohel PozoC46050.982
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Thomas Saggese2B352440.973
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Thomas SaggeseSS33710.988
Nolan Gorman2B28910.990
Ramon Urias2B26701.000
Thomas Saggese3B18020.939
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
José Fermín2B15501.000
Ivan HerreraC14010.989
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Victor ScottRF7001.000
Nolan Gorman1B7401.000
Yohel Pozo1B6201.000
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
José Fermín3B5001.000
Victor ScottLF4001.000
José FermínLF4001.000
Ivan HerreraLF4001.000
Ramon Urias1B3001.000
Pedro Pagés1B2101.000
Alec BurlesonP100--
Pedro Pagés2B1001.000
José FermínRF1001.000

Winn (.994 Fld% over 129 G at SS, 64 DP turned) and Pagés (.994 over 110 G) are anchors. Walker holds a .981 in RF over 108 G. Gorman at 3B is the soft spot (.950 in 54 G, 6 E) -- if he starts at the hot corner, May's 41.3% GB profile this season can find him. Herrera has only 14 G behind the plate at the MLB level this season; throwing out Cruz on a contested attempt would be a real test.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

PNC Park plays as a relatively pitcher-leaning venue historically. Recent head-to-head: 2025 STL 6-7, 2024 STL 8-5, 2023 STL 4-9, 2022 STL 13-6. The Pirates have closed the gap meaningfully since 2022, and the 2023 sweep-style dominance from Pittsburgh is the most recent multi-game data point in PIT's favor at home.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Victor Scott46311124.0%429.1%
Ivan Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Nolan Gorman40213633.8%4711.7%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Ramon Urias3918822.5%276.9%
Pedro Pagés38910727.5%194.9%
Thomas Saggese2958328.1%165.4%
Yohel Pozo1682213.1%74.2%
José Fermín701014.3%811.4%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%

2025 STL line. Gorman (33.8% K%) and Walker (31.8% K%) are the high-K bats Montgomery's 30.1% career K% will attack. Burleson (14.5%) and Pozo (13.1%) are the contact ends. Pages, Saggese, and Church carry a high-K / low-BB combo that profiles poorly vs Montgomery's high-walk style -- they will not benefit from his free passes.

Pirates

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Bryan Reynolds65417326.5%578.7%
Marcell Ozuna59114424.4%9415.9%
Brandon Lowe55314926.9%386.9%
Oneil Cruz54417432.0%6411.8%
Ryan O'Hearn54410920.0%5810.7%
Jake Mangum4286415.0%194.4%
Spencer Horwitz4117317.8%4410.7%
Nick Gonzales4087317.9%215.1%
Joey Bart3329328.0%4012.0%
Henry Davis2817627.0%186.4%
Nick Yorke721520.8%34.2%
Billy Cook6116.7%00.0%

2025 PIT line. Cruz (32.0%), Bart (28.0%), Lowe (26.9%), Reynolds (26.5%), and Davis (27.0%) all sit above the 25% K% threshold -- May's 21.1% career K% has paths to swing-and-miss innings. Ozuna (15.9% BB%) and Bart (12.0% BB%) are the discipline anchors who punish a pitcher who falls behind. Mangum (4.4% BB%) is the swing-first leadoff candidate and pairs with his 62.0% GB% as a pure contact engine.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Ivan Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Victor Scott25940.2%32.0%27.8%
Ramon Urias25345.1%29.2%25.7%
Pedro Pagés24344.9%30.9%24.3%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nolan Gorman19930.2%41.7%28.1%
Thomas Saggese18941.8%29.6%28.6%
Yohel Pozo13340.6%33.1%26.3%
José Fermín4637.0%32.6%30.4%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%

2025 STL profile. Gorman (30.2% GB / 41.7% FB) is the lift-and-air bat who can punish Montgomery's 26.8% career FB% allowed. Herrera (52.6% GB) and Walker (48.9% GB) are the ground-ball ends -- against Montgomery's 43.8% GB profile, expect more GB-on-GB at-bats. Church's 67.6% GB rate in a small sample skews him toward infield rollers.

Pirates

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Bryan Reynolds39849.5%21.6%28.9%
Ryan O'Hearn35747.6%27.2%25.2%
Jake Mangum33762.0%17.2%20.8%
Brandon Lowe32742.2%30.3%27.5%
Marcell Ozuna32243.8%32.6%23.6%
Nick Gonzales30347.9%26.7%25.4%
Spencer Horwitz28040.0%32.9%27.1%
Oneil Cruz27752.7%25.3%22.0%
Joey Bart18853.2%21.8%25.0%
Henry Davis16934.9%42.6%22.5%
Nick Yorke5354.7%26.4%18.9%
Billy Cook540.0%60.0%0.0%

2025 PIT profile. Heavy GB tilt at the top: Mangum 62.0%, Bart 53.2%, Cruz 52.7%, Reynolds 49.5%. Against May's 41.3% GB% in 2026 (career 44.1%), the ground-ball cluster favors hitters when balls find the corners. Davis (42.6% FB%) is the rare lift hitter and has the worst FB AVG (.028) of the lineup -- if May elevates to him, he's a free out.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Dustin May132.112321.1%569.6%2.20
Mason Montgomery46.06330.1%2712.9%2.33

2026 to date: May 18.9% K%, 4.7% BB%. Career baseline: May 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, 2.20 K/BB. Walks are way down in the small 2026 sample but so are strikeouts. Montgomery has only the career figure (30.1% K%, 12.9% BB%, 2.33 K/BB across 46.0 IP) to lean on -- the 2026 11.1 IP sample (41.2% K%, 11.8% BB%) hints at strikeouts trending higher, walks roughly stable. Both arms run elevated walk rates by career; Cardinals discipline (Burleson, Herrera, Fermin) translates to free passes.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Marcell Ozuna vs Dustin May. The largest BvP sample in the matchup -- 11 PA, 5-for-8, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K (.625/.727/1.125, see Section 2B). Ozuna's 2025 BB% of 15.9% (Section 2L) means May cannot pitch around him without consequence. Highest-leverage at-bat of the night every time he comes up.

Cardinals RHB vs Mason Montgomery. Montgomery's career split allows .321/.409/.505/.826 OPS to RHB (Section 2D). The active-roster pool gives STL 8 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Urias, Pages, Saggese, Winn, Pozo, Fermin). Herrera's 2025 vs LHP line of .330/.455/.660 (Section 2C) is the cleanest individual matchup edge.

Oneil Cruz on the bases. 38 SB / 88.4% career rate (Section 2I). Tonight's STL battery has zero career innings paired with May (Section 2H), and Herrera has only 14 G behind the plate this season (Section 2J). Even Cruz's first-base presence flips the inning.

Watchlist: May TTO2 inning 4-6 window (career OPS jumps from .573 to .798, Section 2E). May away from home (career 6.28 ERA, Section 2D-HA). Romero as the bullpen's best lockdown arm (88.5% strand rate, Section 2F). Davis as a free out when elevated (.028 career FB AVG, Section 2G; 42.6% career FB rate, Section 2M). Cardinals high-K bats (Gorman 33.8%, Walker 31.8%, Section 2L) facing Montgomery's 30.1% career K%.

X-factor. The fresh battery. Five different catchers caught May in his prior career (Section 2H), zero of them on tonight's Cardinals roster. Whichever STL catcher starts is calling pitches on instinct and walking into a stolen base threat (Cruz at 88.4%) cold.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

- Show me Dustin May's pitch mix and command tonight inning by inning.
- Update Marcell Ozuna's BvP line vs May after each PA.
- Track Oneil Cruz's stolen base attempts and pop-time data tonight.
- How is Mason Montgomery's K-BB ratio trending after 50 pitches?
- Compare May's TTO2 OPS allowed tonight to his career .798 baseline.
- Which Cardinals RHB has the best xwOBA so far against Montgomery's fastball?
- Show STL bullpen leverage index when each reliever enters tonight.

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025