NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 18-9 | - | W2 |
| Cubs | 17-10 | 1.0 | L1 |
| Pirates | 16-11 | 2.0 | W2 |
| Cardinals | 14-12 | 3.5 | L3 |
| Brewers | 13-13 | 4.5 | L4 |
AL WEST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 14-13 | - | W1 |
| Athletics | 14-13 | - | L1 |
| Mariners | 13-15 | 1.5 | W3 |
| Angels | 12-16 | 2.5 | L2 |
| Astros | 10-18 | 4.5 | L2 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | SEA | Home | L 9-11 |
| Apr 24 | SEA | Home | L 2-3 |
| Apr 22 | MIA | Away | L 1-4 |
| Apr 21 | MIA | Away | W 5-3 |
| Apr 20 | MIA | Away | L 3-5 |
| Apr 19 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 (10) |
| Apr 18 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 |
| Apr 17 | HOU | Away | W 9-4 |
| Apr 15 | CLE | Home | W 5-3 |
| Apr 14 | CLE | Home | W 6-5 (10) |
STARTING PITCHERS
Michael McGreevy (RHP, STL)
2026 to date: 1-2, 3.29 ERA, 27.1 IP, 0.91 WHIP, 14.3% K, 4.8% BB across 5 starts. The profile is unchanged from the 2025 baseline (14.5% K, 5.0% BB, 2.90 K/BB, 95.2 IP) -- a contact-suppression starter who lives at the bottom of the zone (50.8% GB this year). Big watch-out: McGreevy's 2025 home ERA was 5.22 (50.0 IP) vs 3.55 on the road, and tonight is a home start.
Emerson Hancock (RHP, SEA)
2026 to date: 2-1, 2.83 ERA, 28.2 IP, 0.87 WHIP, 26.7% K, 3.8% BB across 5 starts. The K rate has jumped sharply from his 2025 baseline (16.6% K, 8.1% BB, 2.06 K/BB across 90.0 IP) -- if it's real, he is a different pitcher than scouting reports indicate. He has allowed 5 HR in 28.2 IP this year; his 2025 vs-LHB line (.262/.352/.486, 12 HR in 211 PA) is the matchup to attack.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Burleson | 1B | L |
| Herrera | C | R |
| Wetherholt | SS | L |
| Walker | RF | R |
| Fermín | 2B | R |
| Winn | SS | R |
| Church | LF | L |
| Gorman | 2B | L |
| Pagés | C | R |
| Urías | 3B | R |
| Saggese | 2B | R |
| Scott | CF | L |
| Pozo | C | R |
Handedness: 8 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Fermín, Winn, Pagés, Urías, Saggese, Pozo), 5 LHB (Burleson, Wetherholt, Church, Gorman, Scott).
Mariners (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Raleigh | C | S |
| Young | 2B | L |
| Joe | 1B | R |
| Canzone | RF | L |
| Crawford | SS | L |
| Naylor | 1B | L |
| Rodríguez | CF | R |
| Rivas | 2B | S |
| Raley | RF | L |
| Garver | C | R |
| Arozarena | LF | R |
| Refsnyder | RF | R |
| Wilson | 3B | R |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Joe, Rodríguez, Garver, Arozarena, Refsnyder, Wilson), 5 LHB (Young, Canzone, Crawford, Naylor, Raley).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury notes available in the data feed for this report. Both active rosters were confirmed via statsapi at report generation -- 26 STL, 26 SEA.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Urias | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ivan Herrera | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Victor Scott | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Burleson | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Ramon Urias (2 PA), Ivan Herrera (1 PA), Victor Scott (1 PA), Nolan Gorman (1 PA), Alec Burleson (1 PA).
Five Cardinals have ever stepped in against Hancock and the combined line is 0-for-6 with 1 K. The total sample (6 PA across the lineup) is statistically meaningless -- the Cardinals are facing Hancock blind.
Bench note: Wetherholt, Walker, Fermín, Winn, Church, Pagés, Saggese, Pozo -- No data.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cal Raleigh | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julio Rodriguez | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Naylor | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cole Young | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominic Canzone | 2 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Randy Arozarena (3 PA), Cal Raleigh (3 PA), Julio Rodriguez (3 PA), Josh Naylor (3 PA), Cole Young (2 PA), Dominic Canzone (2 PA).
Six Mariners have BvP history with McGreevy and four of them (Arozarena, Raleigh, Rodriguez, Naylor) are each 1-for-3 (.333) -- 3 PA samples are noise, not signal. Cole Young is 0-for-2, Canzone 0-for-1.
Bench note: Crawford, Garver, Refsnyder, Wilson, Joe, Raley, Rivas -- No data.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Victor Scott L | 332 | .221 | .310 | .317 | 5 | 31 | 75 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 276 | .225 | .264 | .364 | 9 | 12 | 72 |
| Ramon Urias R | 273 | .233 | .278 | .367 | 7 | 17 | 57 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 227 | .254 | .305 | .340 | 1 | 15 | 63 |
| Yohel Pozo R | 126 | .217 | .254 | .358 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| José Fermín R | 59 | .280 | .379 | .420 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
Burleson is the lefty answer to Hancock -- 2025 vs RHP: .296/.353/.478 with 15 HR in 419 PA. Herrera (.268/.343/.399) is the right-handed counter. The drag is at the bottom: Walker (.200), Gorman (.201), Church (.114, 51 PA) all post weak 2025 vs-RHP lines -- if any of these three start, Hancock has a built-in escape route.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez R | 574 | .268 | .329 | .474 | 26 | 37 | 123 |
| Randy Arozarena R | 558 | .231 | .346 | .399 | 19 | 57 | 158 |
| Cal Raleigh B | 547 | .238 | .367 | .558 | 42 | 87 | 140 |
| Josh Naylor L | 450 | .307 | .372 | .492 | 17 | 41 | 52 |
| Dominic Canzone L | 229 | .283 | .329 | .472 | 10 | 13 | 54 |
| Cole Young L | 190 | .207 | .298 | .299 | 4 | 21 | 33 |
| Luke Raley L | 188 | .219 | .341 | .342 | 4 | 16 | 56 |
| Mitch Garver R | 134 | .182 | .261 | .289 | 4 | 12 | 43 |
| Leo Rivas B | 89 | .174 | .360 | .261 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| Rob Refsnyder R | 71 | .212 | .268 | .348 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| Will Wilson R | 42 | .162 | .225 | .162 | 0 | 3 | 16 |
| Connor Joe R | 40 | .222 | .275 | .306 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
Naylor (.307/.372/.492 vs RHP, 2025) is the headline danger and the Mariners lean heavily lefty (5 LHB plus 2 switch including Raleigh). Raleigh is a 42-HR switch-hitter with a .558 SLG vs RHP -- McGreevy's biggest single-bat threat. The down-card lefties (Young .207, Wilson .162) can be navigated, but the top four bats all post elevated OBPs vs RHP.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson Hancock | vs LHB | 211 | .262 | .352 | .486 | .748 | 12 | 38 |
| Emerson Hancock | vs RHB | 192 | .269 | .325 | .383 | .652 | 3 | 29 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs LHB | 190 | .318 | .368 | .543 | .861 | 9 | 27 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs RHB | 210 | .225 | .255 | .325 | .550 | 3 | 31 |
McGreevy's 2025 platoon split is dramatic: .861 OPS allowed to LHB vs .550 to RHB. SEA's lineup is built to exploit that -- 5 LHB plus switch-hitter Raleigh with a .558 2025 SLG vs RHP. Hancock's split runs the other way (.748 OPS to LHB, .652 to RHB), and STL has 5 LHB. Both starters are working into the platoon side that hurts them.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson Hancock | Away | 213 | 48.2 | 4.62 | 32 | 18 | 9 |
| Emerson Hancock | Home | 190 | 45.1 | 4.76 | 35 | 18 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | Away | 188 | 45.2 | 3.55 | 24 | 9 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | Home | 212 | 50.0 | 5.22 | 34 | 11 | 6 |
Today's game is at Busch Stadium -- McGreevy pitching at home, where his 2025 ERA was 5.22 (50.0 IP) vs 3.55 on the road. The 1.67-run home/road delta on a 50.0 IP home sample is profile, not noise. Hancock is on the road today; his 2025 home/away ERAs were nearly identical (4.76/4.62), so venue is not his variable.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson Hancock | TTO1 | 199 | .257 | .380 | .637 | 5 | 39 | 18 |
| Emerson Hancock | TTO2 | 132 | .239 | .419 | .658 | 6 | 21 | 12 |
| Emerson Hancock | TTO3 | 72 | .339 | .629 | .968 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO1 | 154 | .282 | .465 | .747 | 5 | 22 | 8 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO2 | 152 | .271 | .417 | .688 | 4 | 14 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO3 | 94 | .241 | .379 | .620 | 3 | 22 | 6 |
Hancock's 2025 TTO line is the swing variable: .637 OPS (TTO1) -> .658 (TTO2) -> .968 (TTO3). The third pass is .331 OPS above his TTO1 baseline, with 4 HR in just 72 PA -- the largest TTO collapse on the card. If SEA leaves him in for a third pass, innings 6-7 are when the runs come.
McGreevy's 2025 TTO line is unusually inverted: .747 OPS (TTO1) -> .688 (TTO2) -> .620 (TTO3). Familiarity helps him -- the second and third passes are his best. The first inning is when he is hit hardest (.282 AVG / .465 SLG TTO1).
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5% on 26 IR) is the elite arm -- protect him for the highest-leverage entry. Svanson (50.0%), Graceffo (54.5%), and Fernandez (50.0%) all sit below league average and below the staff median -- if any of them enter with traffic, expect runs. Leahy (62.1%) is the in-between option, and McGreevy's 100% on 3 IR is too small a sample to weight.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson Hancock | 280 | 45.7% | 28.2% | 25.4% |
| Michael McGreevy | 307 | 49.2% | 25.7% | 24.4% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- SEA
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | .322 | .543 | .098 |
| Dominic Canzone | .326 | .615 | .064 |
| Mitch Garver | .266 | .632 | .074 |
| Connor Joe | .200 | .500 | .125 |
| Josh Naylor | .263 | .634 | .150 |
| Cal Raleigh | .264 | .667 | .056 |
| Luke Raley | .169 | .680 | .133 |
| Rob Refsnyder | .241 | .733 | .118 |
| Leo Rivas | .276 | .600 | .148 |
| Julio Rodriguez | .282 | .589 | .104 |
| Will Wilson | .333 | .778 | .105 |
| Cole Young | .254 | .564 | .062 |
Hancock is a 45.7% career GB pitcher, and the most dangerous SEA bats post huge career LD averages: Refsnyder .733, Raley .680, Raleigh .667, Naylor .634, Garver .632, Canzone .615. When Hancock leaves something flat against this group, it's a hit.
McGreevy (49.2% career GB) lives on the same approach. The matchup he wants: ground balls into Winn at SS (.994 fld%) and Pagés behind the plate. The matchup that hurts him: SEA's elevated 2025 FB rates from Raleigh (47.3%) and Wilson (44.2%) feed into his HR profile -- contact-management starters bleed homers when fly-ball bats are on the card.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 14 | 80.2 | 4.24 | .266 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 8.2 | 9.35 | .385 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 1 | 5.2 | 0.00 | .056 | -- | -- |
Pagés is McGreevy's primary battery (14 G, 80.2 IP, 4.24 ERA, .266 AVG against) and is on tonight's active roster. Pozo (1 G, 5.2 IP, .056 AVG) is the backup option also on the active roster. Jimmy Crooks (2 G, 9.35 ERA) is NOT on tonight's active roster -- his row is historical context only and should not factor into game-planning. If Herrera (the third active catcher) starts, he has 0 IP paired with McGreevy in this dataset -- a fresh battery, with the calibration risk that implies on signal sequencing and pop times.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
SEA's running game is a top-of-table problem:
Arozarena -- 31 SB / 6 CS (83.8%).
Naylor -- 30 SB / 2 CS (93.8%). Stole 2 bases yesterday.
Rodriguez -- 30 SB / 6 CS (83.3%).
Raleigh -- 14 SB / 4 CS (77.8%).
Rivas -- 6 SB / 0 CS (100%).
McGreevy and his catcher have a four-runner top group to manage. Pagés (.994 fld%) has a strong defensive reputation, but the SEA tier is fast and patient.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott | CF | 136 | 3 | 6 | 0.982 |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Ramon Urias | 3B | 78 | 20 | 4 | 0.979 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Yohel Pozo | C | 46 | 0 | 5 | 0.982 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Ramon Urias | 2B | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | 2B | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Victor Scott | RF | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Yohel Pozo | 1B | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | 3B | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Victor Scott | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ramon Urias | 1B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | RF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
STL's primary alignment is defensively strong up the middle: Scott CF (.982), Winn SS (.994), Pagés C (.994), Walker RF (.981). The vulnerable spots are Gorman at 3B (.950, 6 E in 54 G) and the secondary corner-OF assignments. With McGreevy's 50.8% GB rate this year, Winn and the IF are the primary run-savers.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Busch Stadium plays as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue historically. Recent head-to-head: STL 0-3 in 2025, 1-2 in 2024, 1-2 in 2023 -- the Cardinals are 2-7 against the Mariners across the last three seasons, and after dropping the first two of this set the sweep is on the table.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Victor Scott | 463 | 111 | 24.0% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Ramon Urias | 391 | 88 | 22.5% | 27 | 6.9% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Yohel Pozo | 168 | 22 | 13.1% | 7 | 4.2% |
| José Fermín | 70 | 10 | 14.3% | 8 | 11.4% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
Gorman (33.8% 2025 K%) and Walker (31.8%) are the Cardinals' two extreme strikeout bats; Pagés (4.9% 2025 BB%) and Pozo (4.2%) walk the least. Versus Hancock's 26.7% 2026-to-date K rate (vs 16.6% 2025 baseline), the Cardinals' K-prone bats are the at-risk group.
Mariners
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez | 710 | 152 | 21.4% | 44 | 6.2% |
| Randy Arozarena | 709 | 191 | 26.9% | 64 | 9.0% |
| Cal Raleigh | 705 | 188 | 26.7% | 97 | 13.8% |
| Josh Naylor | 600 | 83 | 13.8% | 48 | 8.0% |
| Mitch Garver | 290 | 80 | 27.6% | 30 | 10.3% |
| Dominic Canzone | 268 | 59 | 22.0% | 20 | 7.5% |
| Cole Young | 257 | 47 | 18.3% | 28 | 10.9% |
| Luke Raley | 219 | 64 | 29.2% | 19 | 8.7% |
| Rob Refsnyder | 209 | 54 | 25.8% | 24 | 11.5% |
| Leo Rivas | 111 | 24 | 21.6% | 20 | 18.0% |
| Will Wilson | 91 | 34 | 37.4% | 7 | 7.7% |
| Connor Joe | 80 | 20 | 25.0% | 7 | 8.8% |
Wilson's 37.4% 2025 K% is the lineup-wide outlier on the SEA side. Raleigh's 13.8% 2025 BB% is the standout in the other direction -- a high-OBP, high-power switch-hitter is the worst kind of matchup for McGreevy's contact-management profile. Naylor's 13.8% 2025 K% paired with .307 vs RHP is the cleanest at-bat in the SEA order.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Victor Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| Ramon Urias | 253 | 45.1% | 29.2% | 25.7% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Yohel Pozo | 133 | 40.6% | 33.1% | 26.3% |
| José Fermín | 46 | 37.0% | 32.6% | 30.4% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Church's 67.6% 2025 GB% is extreme but on a 37 BIP sample -- track but don't anchor. Gorman is the inverted profile (30.2% GB / 41.7% FB) -- a flyball-leaning bat against Hancock's 28.2% career FB rate. Herrera leans heavy GB (52.6%) -- ground balls into a SEA infield are low-leverage at-bats unless he punches one through.
Mariners
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez | 493 | 51.1% | 27.2% | 21.7% |
| Josh Naylor | 477 | 48.6% | 27.9% | 23.5% |
| Randy Arozarena | 424 | 46.9% | 31.4% | 21.7% |
| Cal Raleigh | 374 | 29.4% | 47.3% | 23.3% |
| Dominic Canzone | 191 | 48.2% | 24.6% | 27.2% |
| Cole Young | 171 | 39.2% | 38.0% | 22.8% |
| Mitch Garver | 170 | 37.6% | 40.0% | 22.4% |
| Rob Refsnyder | 122 | 47.5% | 27.9% | 24.6% |
| Luke Raley | 114 | 51.8% | 26.3% | 21.9% |
| Leo Rivas | 71 | 40.8% | 38.0% | 21.1% |
| Connor Joe | 50 | 40.0% | 32.0% | 28.0% |
| Will Wilson | 43 | 34.9% | 44.2% | 20.9% |
Raleigh (29.4% 2025 GB / 47.3% FB) is the SEA collision with McGreevy's 49.2% career GB profile -- Raleigh hunts elevated pitches and McGreevy's escape is the bottom of the zone. Wilson is a similar shape (34.9% GB / 44.2% FB). The bulk of the SEA top of the order (Rodriguez 51.1% GB, Naylor 48.6%, Arozarena 46.9% in 2025) plays into McGreevy's preferred batted-ball mix -- ground balls to Winn and Urias.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | 95.2 | 58 | 14.5% | 20 | 5.0% | 2.90 |
| Emerson Hancock | 90.0 | 64 | 16.6% | 31 | 8.1% | 2.06 |
McGreevy: 2026 to date 14.3% K, 4.8% BB. 2025 baseline 14.5% K, 5.0% BB, 2.90 K/BB. He doesn't miss bats; he doesn't walk hitters; he wins with weak contact. Hancock: 2026 to date 26.7% K, 3.8% BB. 2025 baseline 16.6% K, 8.1% BB, 2.06 K/BB. The 2026 K rate is more than 10 percentage points above his 2025 baseline -- if it's real, Hancock is meaningfully better than scouting reports indicate; if it's variance, the 2025 K/BB profile says he leaves more pitches over the plate.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
1. Cal Raleigh vs McGreevy. Switch-hitter, .238/.367/.558 with 42 HR vs RHP in 2025, 47.3% 2025 FB rate, .667 LD AVG career. McGreevy's contact-management plan is built to suppress weak hitters; Raleigh is the wrong opponent for that approach. The 1-for-3 BvP is meaningless -- focus on the platoon and batted-ball profile.
2. Josh Naylor vs McGreevy. Hottest bat in the series (2-for-5, 2 SB yesterday). 2025 vs RHP: .307/.372/.492 with a 13.8% K rate -- the cleanest at-bat in the SEA order. Plus a 93.8% career SB success rate keeps every count situation live.
3. Burleson + Wetherholt vs Hancock. Hancock's 2025 vs-LHB line: .262/.352/.486, 12 HR in 211 PA. Burleson's 2025 vs RHP is .296/.353/.478. Wetherholt homered yesterday and starts in this group. The lefty stack is the most projectable Cardinals offensive lever.
4. The TTO3 window. Hancock 2025 TTO3: .339/.417/.629, 4 HR in 72 PA, .968 OPS. If he reaches innings 6-7, the door is open. The TTO1-to-TTO3 OPS gap is .331 -- the biggest single-pitcher swing on this card.
5. Bullpen fork. Romero (88.5% strand) is the Cardinals' elite leverage arm. Svanson (50.0%), Graceffo (54.5%), Fernandez (50.0%) all strand below league average. Liberatore went 3.1 IP / 5 ER yesterday, so today's bullpen leverage starts early -- which arm enters with traffic decides the middle innings.
Watchlist
-- McGreevy at home (5.22 ERA / 50.0 IP in 2025). The home/road delta is 1.67 ER. Today is at Busch.
-- Hancock 2026 K-rate spike. 26.7% K in 28.2 IP (2026) vs 16.6% across 90.0 IP (2025). If real, the K-prone STL bats (Gorman 33.8%, Walker 31.8%, Saggese 28.1%, Church 27.7%) are exposed.
-- SEA running game. Naylor + Arozarena + Rodriguez = 91 SB combined (career profile in this dataset). McGreevy is a slow-tempo arm. Expect at least one stolen-base attempt before the 5th.
-- Sweep on the line. SEA leads 2-0. STL is 2-7 vs SEA across 2023-2025. Today is the avoid-the-sweep game.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. Show me Hancock's TTO3 line vs lefty-heavy lineups in 2025.
2. McGreevy at home: 2025 splits by month and opponent.
3. Naylor vs RHP, last 30 days, with stolen-base attempts.
4. JoJo Romero leverage index entries since the start of 2026.
5. Cal Raleigh batted-ball locations on flyballs hit to right-center.
6. Cardinals 5-run innings in 2026 -- frequency and pitcher exit timing.
7. Burleson vs RHP by FB% allowed band, 2025.
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025