NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 17-9 | - | W10 |
| Reds | 17-9 | - | W1 |
| Pirates | 15-11 | 2.0 | W1 |
| Cardinals | 14-11 | 2.5 | L2 |
| Brewers | 13-12 | 3.5 | L3 |
AL WEST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 14-12 | - | W1 |
| Rangers | 13-13 | 1.0 | L1 |
| Angels | 12-15 | 2.5 | L1 |
| Mariners | 12-15 | 2.5 | W2 |
| Astros | 10-17 | 4.5 | L1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24 | SEA | Home | L 2-3 |
| Apr 22 | MIA | Away | L 1-4 |
| Apr 21 | MIA | Away | W 5-3 |
| Apr 20 | MIA | Away | L 3-5 |
| Apr 19 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 (10) |
| Apr 18 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 |
| Apr 17 | HOU | Away | W 9-4 |
| Apr 15 | CLE | Home | W 5-3 |
| Apr 14 | CLE | Home | W 6-5 (10) |
| Apr 13 | CLE | Home | L 3-9 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Matthew Liberatore (L) -- STL
2026 to date: 0-1, 3.67 ERA, 27.0 IP, 16 K, 10 BB, 1.41 WHIP across 5 starts. 13.7% K%, 8.5% BB%, 41.3% GB%. 2025 baseline: 18.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 3.05 K/BB across 151.2 IP. The walk rate has crept up early in 2026 -- the swing variable tonight.
Bryan Woo (R) -- SEA
2026 to date: 1-2, 2.25 ERA, 32.0 IP, 26 K, 6 BB, 0.88 WHIP across 5 starts. 21.1% K%, 4.9% BB%, 34.3% GB%. 2025 baseline: 27.1% K%, 4.9% BB%, 5.50 K/BB across 186.2 IP. K-rate is off his career mark, but command is intact.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Burleson | 1B | L |
| Herrera | C | R |
| Wetherholt | SS | L |
| Walker | RF | R |
| Fermín | 2B | R |
| Winn | SS | R |
| Church | LF | L |
| Gorman | 2B | L |
| Pagés | C | R |
| Urías | 3B | R |
| Saggese | 2B | R |
| Scott | CF | L |
| Pozo | C | R |
Handedness: 8 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Fermín, Winn, Pagés, Urías, Saggese, Pozo), 5 LHB (Burleson, Wetherholt, Church, Gorman, Scott).
Mariners (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Raleigh | C | S |
| Young | 2B | L |
| Joe | 1B | R |
| Canzone | RF | L |
| Crawford | SS | L |
| Naylor | 1B | L |
| Rodríguez | CF | R |
| Rivas | 2B | S |
| Raley | RF | L |
| Garver | C | R |
| Arozarena | LF | R |
| Refsnyder | RF | R |
| Wilson | 3B | R |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Joe, Rodríguez, Garver, Arozarena, Refsnyder, Wilson), 5 LHB (Young, Canzone, Crawford, Naylor, Raley).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No Phase 2 injury web search performed for this run. Consult the Cardinals and Mariners official injury reports prior to first pitch for any late scratches or roster moves.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Herrera | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Burleson | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | 1.333 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jordan Walker | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Victor Scott | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Masyn Winn | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Ivan Herrera (3 PA), Alec Burleson (3 PA), Nolan Gorman (2 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), Victor Scott (2 PA), Thomas Saggese (2 PA), Masyn Winn (2 PA).
Tiny samples dominate. Burleson's HR in 3 PA and Herrera's hit in 3 PA are eye-catching but statistically meaningless. Five of seven listed batters have struck out in their two PA. The Cardinals are essentially facing Woo blind tonight.
Bench note: Wetherholt, Church, Fermin, Pages, Urias, Pozo -- No data. No significant bench BvP history against Woo.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor | 8 | 8 | 2 | .250 | .250 | .625 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Randy Arozarena | 6 | 5 | 2 | .400 | .333 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cal Raleigh | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitch Garver | 4 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .750 | 1.000 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Connor Joe | 3 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .667 | 1.000 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Julio Rodriguez | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Raley | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Josh Naylor (8 PA), Randy Arozarena (6 PA), Cal Raleigh (3 PA), Mitch Garver (4 PA), Rob Refsnyder (2 PA), Connor Joe (3 PA), Julio Rodriguez (2 PA), Luke Raley (1 PA).
Naylor is the standout (8 PA, 1 HR, 0 K, 0 BB, .625 SLG) -- a real sample, and he homered last night. Arozarena (6 PA, 1 HR, .400 / 1.000 SLG) is the second danger bat with track record. Garver, Refsnyder, and Joe show strong rate stats in 2-4 PA samples -- noisy but trending. Raleigh is 0-for-3 with no whiffs against Liberatore -- contact, but no production yet.
Bench note: Young, Canzone, Crawford, Rivas, Wilson -- No data. The relevant SEA bats with Liberatore history are already in the table.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Victor Scott L | 332 | .221 | .310 | .317 | 5 | 31 | 75 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 276 | .225 | .264 | .364 | 9 | 12 | 72 |
| Ramon Urias R | 273 | .233 | .278 | .367 | 7 | 17 | 57 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 227 | .254 | .305 | .340 | 1 | 15 | 63 |
| Yohel Pozo R | 126 | .217 | .254 | .358 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| José Fermín R | 59 | .280 | .379 | .420 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
2025 vs RHP: Burleson (.296 / .353 / .478, 419 PA) is the top RHP hitter in this group -- the at-bat to lean on against Woo. Fermin (.280 in 59 PA) profiles well in his small sample. Walker (.200, 289 PA) and Gorman (.201 / .294 / .349, 309 PA) are the structural concerns -- both will see Woo's K-rate-heavy stuff. Church (.114 in 51 PA) is the LHB bat that becomes a matchup question if leverage rises late.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh B | 214 | .284 | .350 | .680 | 23 | 18 | 65 |
| Randy Arozarena R | 210 | .238 | .290 | .446 | 9 | 11 | 53 |
| Josh Naylor L | 205 | .281 | .322 | .427 | 6 | 11 | 37 |
| Julio Rodriguez R | 191 | .249 | .304 | .480 | 10 | 14 | 48 |
| Mitch Garver R | 165 | .236 | .327 | .400 | 5 | 19 | 39 |
| Rob Refsnyder R | 144 | .289 | .389 | .537 | 7 | 20 | 34 |
| Dominic Canzone L | 69 | .271 | .362 | .339 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| Cole Young L | 67 | .220 | .313 | .322 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| Will Wilson R | 49 | .220 | .304 | .317 | 0 | 4 | 18 |
| Leo Rivas B | 43 | .316 | .395 | .368 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| Connor Joe R | 40 | .147 | .250 | .176 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| Luke Raley L | 36 | .094 | .194 | .125 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
2025 vs LHP: Cal Raleigh switch-hits, but his LHP slug (.680, 23 HR in 214 PA) is the most extreme platoon profile in either lineup tonight. Refsnyder (.289 / .389 / .537) and Naylor (.281 / .322 / .427) round out the top threats. Raley (.094 / .194 / .125 in 36 PA) and Joe (.147 in 40 PA) are exploitable holes if Liberatore avoids the middle. With five LHB facing a LHP, expect Seattle to lift Raley early if leverage rises.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | vs RHB | 515 | .265 | .304 | .426 | .691 | 16 | 93 |
| Matthew Liberatore | vs LHB | 133 | .274 | .348 | .410 | .684 | 3 | 29 |
| Bryan Woo | vs LHB | 381 | .193 | .253 | .343 | .536 | 12 | 89 |
| Bryan Woo | vs RHB | 373 | .208 | .240 | .360 | .568 | 14 | 112 |
Liberatore is roughly even across hands (.691 OPS vs RHB, .684 vs LHB) -- platoon is not a real lever. Woo punishes both sides too (.536 vs LHB, .568 vs RHB), with elite K-rate vs RHB (112 K in 373 PA, 30.0%). The Cardinals' 8 RHB / 5 LHB mix doesn't change Woo's job: he attacks everyone, and the Cards' R-handed bats face the higher whiff exposure.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | Away | 334 | 76.0 | 4.03 | 59 | 26 | 11 |
| Matthew Liberatore | Home | 314 | 75.2 | 3.69 | 63 | 14 | 8 |
| Bryan Woo | Away | 406 | 101.1 | 3.20 | 101 | 22 | 14 |
| Bryan Woo | Home | 348 | 90.2 | 2.38 | 100 | 17 | 12 |
Today is at Busch Stadium -- Liberatore at home (3.69 ERA, 75.2 IP, 14 BB) historically pitches the cleaner game vs his road work (4.03 ERA, 26 BB in 76.0 IP). Walks are the big split. Woo is on the road tonight (3.20 ERA away vs 2.38 at home) -- still strong, but the road sample shows slightly elevated HR risk (14 HR in 101.1 IP).
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO1 | 264 | .237 | .376 | .613 | 8 | 56 | 15 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO2 | 252 | .310 | .511 | .821 | 9 | 40 | 17 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO3 | 132 | .244 | .353 | .597 | 2 | 26 | 8 |
| Bryan Woo | TTO1 | 292 | .223 | .342 | .565 | 6 | 82 | 16 |
| Bryan Woo | TTO2 | 271 | .181 | .324 | .505 | 9 | 77 | 11 |
| Bryan Woo | TTO3 | 191 | .194 | .406 | .600 | 11 | 42 | 12 |
Liberatore's 2025 TTO2 line (.310 AVG / .511 SLG / .821 OPS in 252 PA) is the obvious vulnerability -- second-pass innings 4-6 are when his stuff stops missing bats. Woo's 2025 TTO pattern is unusual: TTO2 is his BEST stretch (.181 / .505), but TTO3 power spikes (.406 SLG, 11 HR in 191 PA). The Cardinals' offensive window opens late if they push Woo into a third pass.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
Romero (88.5% strand on 26 IR) is the cleanest mid-inning option; McGreevy's 100% (3 IR) is too small to lean on but trending. Svanson, Graceffo, and Fernandez (50.0% / 54.5% / 50.0%) are the leak points -- entering with traffic is when this bullpen gives runs back. League average strand rate: ~68-72%.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | 463 | 39.1% | 31.3% | 27.6% |
| Bryan Woo | 483 | 43.1% | 32.3% | 23.4% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- SEA
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | .322 | .543 | .098 |
| Dominic Canzone | .326 | .615 | .064 |
| Mitch Garver | .266 | .632 | .074 |
| Connor Joe | .200 | .500 | .125 |
| Josh Naylor | .263 | .634 | .150 |
| Cal Raleigh | .264 | .667 | .056 |
| Luke Raley | .169 | .680 | .133 |
| Rob Refsnyder | .241 | .733 | .118 |
| Leo Rivas | .276 | .600 | .148 |
| Julio Rodriguez | .282 | .589 | .104 |
| Will Wilson | .333 | .778 | .105 |
| Cole Young | .254 | .564 | .062 |
Both starters carry balanced career batted-ball profiles with mild GB lean: Liberatore 39.1% GB / 31.3% FB / 27.6% LD; Woo 43.1% / 32.3% / 23.4%. SEA's hitters punish line drives -- Refsnyder (.733 LD AVG), Wilson (.778), Raley (.680), Raleigh (.667), Naylor (.634), Garver (.632) -- most of the lineup squares balls at elite rates when contact happens. The angle: keep Seattle off balance and inside the GB zone, where SEA hits a more pedestrian .263 - .333.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 15 | 75.2 | 3.93 | .279 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 12 | 63.2 | 4.10 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 11.0 | 2.45 | .225 | -- | -- |
Pages and Pozo are both on tonight's active roster. Pages is the most likely starter behind the plate with Liberatore (15 G / 75.2 IP / 3.93 ERA together). Pozo (12 G / 63.2 IP / 4.10) is the backup. Jimmy Crooks appears in this table but is NOT on the active roster -- the 2.45 ERA / 11.0 IP line reflects a prior assignment and is not predictive for tonight. Tonight's catcher is Pages or Pozo.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Naylor (30 SB, 2 CS, 93.8%): the lineup's most efficient runner. Treat as automatic if he reaches second.
Arozarena (31 SB, 6 CS, 83.8%): volume runner; less efficient than Naylor but a constant pressure point.
Rodriguez (30 SB, 6 CS, 83.3%): the speed/power threat at the top of the order.
Raleigh (14 SB, 4 CS, 77.8%): a catcher who runs at a 77.8% clip is a surprising leverage piece.
Rivas (6 SB, 0 CS), Garver (3, 0), Refsnyder (3, 0), Wilson (2, 0): 100% on small samples -- watch trail runners advancing on contact.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott | CF | 136 | 3 | 6 | 0.982 |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Ramon Urias | 3B | 78 | 20 | 4 | 0.979 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Yohel Pozo | C | 46 | 0 | 5 | 0.982 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Ramon Urias | 2B | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | 2B | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Victor Scott | RF | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Yohel Pozo | 1B | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | 3B | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Victor Scott | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ramon Urias | 1B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | RF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Winn (.994 at SS, 64 DP) and Pages (.994 at C) anchor up the middle. Walker has 4 errors in 108 RF games (.981) -- a soft spot in the right-field corner if Woo's K-rate dips and balls find the outfield. Gorman at 3B (.950 in 54 G) is the infield liability if he plays there tonight; Saggese at 3B (.939 in 18 G) is a deeper concern still.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Cardinals vs Mariners head-to-head: 0-3 in 2025, 1-2 in 2024, 1-2 in 2023 -- 2-7 over the last three seasons. Busch Stadium plays as a neutral venue with no extreme handedness or HR-park lean to factor into tonight's decision tree.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Victor Scott | 463 | 111 | 24.0% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Ramon Urias | 391 | 88 | 22.5% | 27 | 6.9% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Yohel Pozo | 168 | 22 | 13.1% | 7 | 4.2% |
| José Fermín | 70 | 10 | 14.3% | 8 | 11.4% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
Cardinals contact tier (2025 K%): Pozo 13.1%, Fermin 14.3%, Burleson 14.5% -- the bats most likely to put Woo's stuff in play. Power tier risks (2025 K%): Gorman 33.8%, Walker 31.8% face the highest whiff exposure tonight against a 27.1% 2025 K% pitcher.
Mariners
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez | 710 | 152 | 21.4% | 44 | 6.2% |
| Randy Arozarena | 709 | 191 | 26.9% | 64 | 9.0% |
| Cal Raleigh | 705 | 188 | 26.7% | 97 | 13.8% |
| Josh Naylor | 600 | 83 | 13.8% | 48 | 8.0% |
| Mitch Garver | 290 | 80 | 27.6% | 30 | 10.3% |
| Dominic Canzone | 268 | 59 | 22.0% | 20 | 7.5% |
| Cole Young | 257 | 47 | 18.3% | 28 | 10.9% |
| Luke Raley | 219 | 64 | 29.2% | 19 | 8.7% |
| Rob Refsnyder | 209 | 54 | 25.8% | 24 | 11.5% |
| Leo Rivas | 111 | 24 | 21.6% | 20 | 18.0% |
| Will Wilson | 91 | 34 | 37.4% | 7 | 7.7% |
| Connor Joe | 80 | 20 | 25.0% | 7 | 8.8% |
Mariners discipline anchors (2025): Raleigh 13.8% BB% (.680 SLG vs LHP) and Naylor 13.8% K% are the patient, contact-strong bats. Wilson's 37.4% 2025 K% is the lineup hole if Liberatore catches him. Rivas's 18.0% 2025 BB% is the highest in the lineup -- a leadoff ladder if used.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Victor Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| Ramon Urias | 253 | 45.1% | 29.2% | 25.7% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Yohel Pozo | 133 | 40.6% | 33.1% | 26.3% |
| José Fermín | 46 | 37.0% | 32.6% | 30.4% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Cardinals air-game outlier: Gorman (41.7% 2025 FB%). Extreme ground-ball bat: Church (67.6% 2025 GB%) -- a poor collision with Woo's career 43.1% GB profile. Herrera also tilts ground (52.6% 2025 GB%).
Mariners
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez | 493 | 51.1% | 27.2% | 21.7% |
| Josh Naylor | 477 | 48.6% | 27.9% | 23.5% |
| Randy Arozarena | 424 | 46.9% | 31.4% | 21.7% |
| Cal Raleigh | 374 | 29.4% | 47.3% | 23.3% |
| Dominic Canzone | 191 | 48.2% | 24.6% | 27.2% |
| Cole Young | 171 | 39.2% | 38.0% | 22.8% |
| Mitch Garver | 170 | 37.6% | 40.0% | 22.4% |
| Rob Refsnyder | 122 | 47.5% | 27.9% | 24.6% |
| Luke Raley | 114 | 51.8% | 26.3% | 21.9% |
| Leo Rivas | 71 | 40.8% | 38.0% | 21.1% |
| Connor Joe | 50 | 40.0% | 32.0% | 28.0% |
| Will Wilson | 43 | 34.9% | 44.2% | 20.9% |
Mariners batted-ball spread (2025): Raleigh 47.3% FB%, Wilson 44.2%, Garver 40.0% are the air-game bats -- aligned with their elite LD AVG damage. Liberatore's career 39.1% GB / 31.3% FB profile means SEA's elevated FB% bats can lift him; that is the structural threat in this matchup.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo | 186.2 | 198 | 27.1% | 36 | 4.9% | 5.50 |
| Matthew Liberatore | 151.2 | 122 | 18.8% | 40 | 6.2% | 3.05 |
Woo's 2025 K/BB ratio of 5.50 is elite (27.1% K% / 4.9% BB%). 2026 to date: 21.1% K% / 4.9% BB% across 32.0 IP -- the K-rate is off a tick but command is intact. Liberatore's 2025 K/BB is 3.05 (18.8% K% / 6.2% BB%); 2026 to date 13.7% / 8.5% across 27.0 IP -- the walk rate has crept up. The K-rate gap defines this matchup: Woo will work in the zone, Liberatore is riding a thinner margin.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Naylor vs Liberatore. 8 PA, 1 HR, 0 K, 0 BB, .625 SLG career (Section 2B). Naylor homered in last night's win (Section 0a). The most repeatable threat against tonight's starter.
Cal Raleigh vs LHP. .284 AVG / .350 OBP / .680 SLG with 23 HR in 214 PA in 2025 (Section 2C). Switch-hitter; the LHP side is where the slug lives. Tonight's most lopsided platoon advantage in either lineup.
Burleson and the Cards' contact tier vs Woo. Burleson's 14.5% 2025 K% (Section 2L) is the contact profile that survives Woo's 27.1% 2025 K% (Section 2N). Pair him with Fermin (14.3%), Pozo (13.1%), and Winn (19.0%) -- the only realistic offensive path tonight.
Refsnyder vs LHP (bench). .289 / .389 / .537 with 7 HR in 144 PA in 2025 (Section 2C). The R-handed bench bat that punishes Liberatore if SEA reaches into platoon decisions late.
WATCHLIST
-- Woo TTO3 power. .194 2025 AVG but .406 SLG and 11 HR in 191 PA (Section 2E). Late-game mistakes leave the yard.
-- Liberatore TTO2. .310 / .511 / .821 in 252 PA in 2025 (Section 2E). Innings 4-6 are the trouble window.
-- Bullpen fork. Romero 88.5% strand vs Svanson 50.0%, Graceffo 54.5%, Fernandez 50.0% (Section 2F). Which arm enters in traffic decides the middle innings.
-- Raley vs LHP. .094 / .194 / .125 in 36 PA in 2025 (Section 2C). If he starts, he is the platoon liability to attack.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. Show me Naylor's career splits vs left-handed Cardinals starters.
2. What is Bryan Woo's pitch mix vs LHB in 2026?
3. JoJo Romero inherited-runner appearances last 14 days.
4. Liberatore game logs at Busch Stadium 2024-2025.
5. Mariners scoring distribution by inning, 2026 to date.
6. Cardinals batting with RISP in 2026 vs RHP.
7. Refsnyder career HR off LHP.
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025