NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 16-9 | - | W9 |
| Reds | 16-9 | - | L1 |
| Cardinals | 14-10 | 1.5 | L1 |
| Pirates | 14-11 | 2.0 | L1 |
| Brewers | 13-11 | 2.5 | L2 |
AL WEST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 13-12 | - | W1 |
| Athletics | 13-12 | - | L1 |
| Angels | 12-14 | 1.5 | W1 |
| Mariners | 11-15 | 2.5 | W1 |
| Astros | 10-16 | 3.5 | W1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22 | MIA | Away | L 1-4 |
| Apr 21 | MIA | Away | W 5-3 |
| Apr 20 | MIA | Away | L 3-5 |
| Apr 19 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 (10) |
| Apr 18 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 |
| Apr 17 | HOU | Away | W 9-4 |
| Apr 15 | CLE | Home | W 5-3 |
| Apr 14 | CLE | Home | W 6-5 (10) |
| Apr 13 | CLE | Home | L 3-9 |
| Apr 12 | BOS | Home | L 3-9 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Andre Pallante (R) -- Cardinals
2026 to date: 2-1, 4.05 ERA, 20.0 IP across 4 starts, 12 K / 11 BB, 1.45 WHIP, 64.6% GB, 13.2% K%, 12.1% BB%. The walk rate is the red line -- more than one free pass per inning early in the year.
2025 baseline: 162.2 IP, 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.79 K/BB, 61.2% GB. Extreme contact-manager who lives at the bottom of the zone. TTO2 is his weak window (2025: .309 AVG / .796 OPS), TTO3 actually recovers (.217 AVG). Home/road 2025 inverts -- 5.42 home ERA, 4.89 on the road.
George Kirby (R) -- Mariners
2026 to date: 3-2, 2.97 ERA, 33.1 IP across 5 starts, 27 K / 8 BB, 1.05 WHIP, 60.6% GB, 20.9% K%, 6.2% BB%. Early-season form is the strike-throwing Kirby the Cardinals saw in 2025.
2025 baseline: 126.0 IP, 26.1% K%, 5.5% BB%, 4.72 K/BB -- elite command. TTO1 and TTO2 OPS (.639 / .541) are suppression-level. TTO3 is the break point: .327 AVG / .645 SLG / .972 OPS over 117 PA. Road ERA 4.97 vs home 3.79 -- Kirby travels worse than he pitches in Seattle.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Burleson | 1B | L |
| Herrera | C | R |
| Wetherholt | SS | L |
| Walker | RF | R |
| Fermín | 2B | R |
| Winn | SS | R |
| Church | LF | L |
| Gorman | 2B | L |
| Pagés | C | R |
| Urías | 3B | R |
| Saggese | 2B | R |
| Scott | CF | L |
| Pozo | C | R |
Handedness: 8 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Fermín, Winn, Pagés, Urías, Saggese, Pozo), 5 LHB (Burleson, Wetherholt, Church, Gorman, Scott).
Mariners (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Raleigh | C | S |
| Young | 2B | L |
| Joe | 1B | R |
| Canzone | RF | L |
| Crawford | SS | L |
| Naylor | 1B | L |
| Rodríguez | CF | R |
| Rivas | 2B | S |
| Raley | RF | L |
| Garver | C | R |
| Arozarena | LF | R |
| Refsnyder | RF | R |
| Wilson | 3B | R |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Joe, Rodríguez, Garver, Arozarena, Refsnyder, Wilson), 5 LHB (Young, Canzone, Crawford, Naylor, Raley).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move intel is carried in tonight's Phase 1 data. Treat both rosters above as the available player pool; the nine-man lineup will be one of the 13-player subsets when it is posted.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 5 | 5 | 2 | .400 | .400 | .600 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Gorman | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Ramon Urias | 5 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .200 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ivan Herrera | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| José Fermín | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Victor Scott | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pedro Pagés | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Small sample: Alec Burleson (5 PA), Nolan Gorman (4 PA), Ramon Urias (5 PA), Ivan Herrera (3 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), José Fermín (2 PA), Victor Scott (2 PA), Pedro Pagés (2 PA), Thomas Saggese (2 PA).
Every sample here is under 10 PA, so the column of .500s and 1.000s is noise more than signal. Burleson's 2-for-5 is the largest sample against Kirby and the only one worth weighting; the rest is one or two trips. Wetherholt, Winn, Church, Scott (beyond the 2 PA), and Pozo carry no prior exposure to Kirby.
Bench note: No meaningful bench BvP history against Kirby beyond what appears above. JJ Wetherholt, Masyn Winn, Nathan Church, and Yohel Pozo -- No data.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Joe | 10 | 9 | 1 | .111 | .200 | .111 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Josh Naylor | 8 | 6 | 1 | .167 | .375 | .167 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 6 | 5 | 2 | .400 | .500 | .400 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Randy Arozarena | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominic Canzone | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Josh Naylor (8 PA), Rob Refsnyder (6 PA), Randy Arozarena (1 PA), Dominic Canzone (1 PA).
Only Connor Joe has reached the 10 PA threshold against Pallante, and the result is a weak .111 AVG with 3 K in 9 AB. Naylor's 8 PA is interesting for the approach (2 BB, 0 K) more than the outcome. No Mariner clears the 10-PA / .400 AVG bar, so there is no Danger Bat callout from BvP data.
Bench note: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Leo Rivas, Mitch Garver, Cole Young, Luke Raley, Will Wilson -- No data against Pallante. Kirby is the first Cardinals exposure for most of this lineup.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Victor Scott L | 332 | .221 | .310 | .317 | 5 | 31 | 75 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Pedro Pagés R | 276 | .225 | .264 | .364 | 9 | 12 | 72 |
| Ramon Urias R | 273 | .233 | .278 | .367 | 7 | 17 | 57 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 227 | .254 | .305 | .340 | 1 | 15 | 63 |
| Yohel Pozo R | 126 | .217 | .254 | .358 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| José Fermín R | 59 | .280 | .379 | .420 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
Kirby is right-handed, so this is the Cardinals vs RHP 2025 table. Burleson headlines the left side (.296 / .353 / .478 over 419 PA) -- the lone hitter in the lineup who genuinely attacks righties. Gorman's 2025 line vs RHP (.201 / .294) is the platoon risk on the left side; Scott (.221) is the other soft spot. On the right side, Herrera (.343 OBP) and Fermín in a small 59-PA sample (.379 OBP) do the most damage, while Walker (.200, .263 OBP) continues to struggle against same-handed pitching. Kirby's own 2025 vs LHB/RHB (below) suggests the lefties have more room.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez R | 574 | .268 | .329 | .474 | 26 | 37 | 123 |
| Randy Arozarena R | 558 | .231 | .346 | .399 | 19 | 57 | 158 |
| Cal Raleigh B | 547 | .238 | .367 | .558 | 42 | 87 | 140 |
| Josh Naylor L | 450 | .307 | .372 | .492 | 17 | 41 | 52 |
| Dominic Canzone L | 229 | .283 | .329 | .472 | 10 | 13 | 54 |
| Cole Young L | 190 | .207 | .298 | .299 | 4 | 21 | 33 |
| Luke Raley L | 188 | .219 | .341 | .342 | 4 | 16 | 56 |
| Mitch Garver R | 134 | .182 | .261 | .289 | 4 | 12 | 43 |
| Leo Rivas B | 89 | .174 | .360 | .261 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| Rob Refsnyder R | 71 | .212 | .268 | .348 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| Will Wilson R | 42 | .162 | .225 | .162 | 0 | 3 | 16 |
| Connor Joe R | 40 | .222 | .275 | .306 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
Pallante is right-handed, so this is SEA vs RHP 2025. Naylor's .307 / .372 / .492 line in 450 PA is the headline threat -- the best contact-plus-power profile in the lineup. Raleigh's switch-hitting .558 SLG and 42 HR vs RHP is the leverage bat. Rodriguez (.474 SLG) and Arozarena (.346 OBP) round out the top tier. The soft underside is Garver (.182), Rivas (.174 but .360 OBP from walks), and Wilson (.162 / .225). If Pallante stays in the zone, the bottom of the order is where the Cardinals get free outs.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | vs LHB | 325 | .273 | .326 | .424 | .697 | 11 | 85 |
| George Kirby | vs RHB | 278 | .237 | .277 | .389 | .626 | 8 | 73 |
| Andre Pallante | vs LHB | 347 | .266 | .329 | .434 | .700 | 10 | 60 |
| Andre Pallante | vs RHB | 368 | .275 | .345 | .429 | .704 | 11 | 51 |
Kirby runs a reverse-looking split: .697 OPS vs LHB, .626 OPS vs RHB -- left-handed bats punish him harder. The Cardinals carry 5 LHB in the roster pool (Burleson, Wetherholt, Church, Gorman, Scott), so the starting lineup is likely to have 3-4 on the left side to exploit that. Pallante's 2025 vs-L / vs-R split is basically flat (.700 / .704 OPS), meaning Seattle's mix of 5 LHB / 6 RHB / 2 switch hitters doesn't give either side an obvious platoon card to play.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | Away | 270 | 63.1 | 4.97 | 67 | 13 | 8 |
| George Kirby | Home | 333 | 80.2 | 3.79 | 91 | 20 | 11 |
| Andre Pallante | Away | 375 | 84.2 | 4.89 | 67 | 35 | 11 |
| Andre Pallante | Home | 340 | 78.0 | 5.42 | 44 | 27 | 10 |
Today's game is at Busch Stadium -- Pallante pitching Home (5.42 Home ERA vs 4.89 Away in 2025) and Kirby pitching Away (4.97 Away ERA vs 3.79 Home in 2025). Both pitchers are working from their worse split. Pallante's home K-rate drops sharply (44 K in 78.0 IP at home vs 67 K in 84.2 IP away), which matters because Busch strikeouts are the safest outs against a running lineup.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | TTO1 | 245 | .256 | .383 | .639 | 7 | 63 | 11 |
| George Kirby | TTO2 | 241 | .223 | .318 | .541 | 3 | 66 | 15 |
| George Kirby | TTO3 | 117 | .327 | .645 | .972 | 9 | 29 | 7 |
| Andre Pallante | TTO1 | 279 | .266 | .393 | .659 | 6 | 35 | 21 |
| Andre Pallante | TTO2 | 270 | .309 | .487 | .796 | 8 | 46 | 27 |
| Andre Pallante | TTO3 | 166 | .217 | .408 | .625 | 7 | 30 | 14 |
Kirby's 2025 TTO profile flips late: TTO1/TTO2 combined OPS around .590, then TTO3 jumps to a .972 OPS with 9 HR in 117 PA. That is the Cardinals' window -- innings 6 and later, when the order turns over for the third time. Pallante's 2025 TTO2 is his vulnerability (.309 AVG, .796 OPS), typically innings 4 through 6. If the Mariners are going to cash in, they cash in before Pallante reaches 75 pitches, not after.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5% on 26 IR) is the elite option and clearly the manager's first call when Pallante leaves traffic. Below him the bullpen splits sharply -- Svanson (50.0%), Fernandez (50.0%), and Graceffo (54.5%) are all well below league average over real workloads. Leahy (62.1% on 29 IR) lands between those tiers. The manager's mid-inning decision matters disproportionately tonight because the volatility between arms is large.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | 385 | 45.7% | 25.5% | 28.3% |
| Andre Pallante | 515 | 61.2% | 18.3% | 19.6% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- SEA
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | .322 | .543 | .098 |
| Dominic Canzone | .326 | .615 | .064 |
| Mitch Garver | .266 | .632 | .074 |
| Connor Joe | .200 | .500 | .125 |
| Josh Naylor | .263 | .634 | .150 |
| Cal Raleigh | .264 | .667 | .056 |
| Luke Raley | .169 | .680 | .133 |
| Rob Refsnyder | .241 | .733 | .118 |
| Leo Rivas | .276 | .600 | .148 |
| Julio Rodriguez | .282 | .589 | .104 |
| Will Wilson | .333 | .778 | .105 |
| Cole Young | .254 | .564 | .062 |
Pallante's 61.2% career GB% meets a Mariners lineup where most of the bats hit the ball on the ground too -- Rodriguez 51.1% (2025 GB profile), Raley 51.8%, Naylor 48.6%, Canzone 48.2%, Refsnyder 47.5%. When those hitters go to the ground, their career GB AVGs are .263-.326 -- serviceable but not lethal. The exception is Cal Raleigh: 29.4% GB / 47.3% FB in 2025, and his career fly-ball AVG is .056. Raleigh is the hitter Pallante wants to keep on the ground; every other Seattle bat is already playing into Pallante's map.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 15 | 76.1 | 4.60 | .257 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 8 | 37.2 | 6.93 | .303 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 5 | 23.1 | 4.24 | .258 | -- | -- |
| Ivan Herrera | 5 | 23.2 | 4.56 | .271 | -- | -- |
Jimmy Crooks in this table is historical only -- he is not on tonight's active roster, so the 23.1 IP of Crooks/Pallante work above carries no forward signal. Tonight's scheduled catcher will come from Pagés, Herrera, or Pozo, all of whom are on the active roster. The pairings that matter: Pagés (15 G / 76.1 IP / 4.60 ERA) is the established starter and the cleanest profile. Herrera (5 G / 23.2 IP / 4.56 ERA) has a smaller but comparable sample. Pozo (8 G / 37.2 IP / 6.93 ERA) is the red flag -- his Pallante-caught sample is the worst on the page. If Pozo catches tonight, flag it; if Pagés or Herrera catches, the pairing is broadly neutral.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Randy Arozarena -- 31 SB / 6 CS career, 83.8% success rate. Top-of-lineup threat if he reaches.
Josh Naylor -- 30 SB / 2 CS career, 93.8% success. Elite efficiency on a non-traditional profile.
Julio Rodriguez -- 30 SB / 6 CS career, 83.3% success. Runs with Naylor and Arozarena as the three-headed problem.
Cal Raleigh -- 14 SB / 4 CS career, 77.8%. Catcher power threat, not a runner, but will take the occasional base.
Leo Rivas -- 6 SB / 0 CS career, 100%. Small sample but perfect to date.
Dominic Canzone -- 3 SB / 1 CS, 75.0%. Situational, not a go-when-on threat.
Mitch Garver -- 3 SB / 0 CS, 100%. Spot-timing only.
Rob Refsnyder -- 3 SB / 0 CS, 100%. Spot-timing only.
Luke Raley -- 2 SB / 1 CS, 66.7%.
Connor Joe -- 2 SB / 2 CS, 50.0%. Not a threat.
Will Wilson -- 2 SB / 0 CS, 100%.
Cole Young -- 1 SB / 0 CS, 100%.
The Mariners carry three 30-SB runners in the same lineup (Arozarena, Naylor, Rodriguez) at 83-94% success. Whichever Cardinals catcher starts tonight will need to be live on pop times from pitch one.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott | CF | 136 | 3 | 6 | 0.982 |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Ramon Urias | 3B | 78 | 20 | 4 | 0.979 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Yohel Pozo | C | 46 | 0 | 5 | 0.982 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Ramon Urias | 2B | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | 2B | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Victor Scott | RF | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Yohel Pozo | 1B | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | 3B | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Victor Scott | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ramon Urias | 1B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | RF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Pallante is a ground-ball starter, so the middle infield is the pivotal glove group. Winn at SS (129 G / .994 / 64 DP) is the lineup's elite infielder. Saggese at 2B (.973) and Gorman at 3B (.950) are the relative soft spots -- if either starts tonight, hard-hit grounders that get past the bag play bigger. Pagés at C (.994) and Scott at CF (.982 over 136 G) give the outfield and battery stable baselines.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Busch Stadium plays as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue historically. Head-to-head across the last three seasons has not been kind to St. Louis: 2025 the Cardinals went 0-3 against Seattle, 2024 1-2, and 2023 1-2 -- a combined 2-7 ledger. The on-paper matchup tonight is close, but the Cardinals are playing into a recent series history where they have not solved this opponent.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Victor Scott | 463 | 111 | 24.0% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Ramon Urias | 391 | 88 | 22.5% | 27 | 6.9% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Yohel Pozo | 168 | 22 | 13.1% | 7 | 4.2% |
| José Fermín | 70 | 10 | 14.3% | 8 | 11.4% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
Against a command pitcher like Kirby (2025 K% 26.1, BB% 5.5), the Cardinals hitters most exposed are Gorman (2025 K%: 33.8), Walker (2025 K%: 31.8), Saggese (2025 K%: 28.1), and Church (2025 K%: 27.7). The contact-oriented bats are Burleson (2025 K%: 14.5), Pozo (2025 K%: 13.1), and Fermín (2025 K%: 14.3) -- those are the plate appearances that give Kirby the most trouble. Pagés's 2025 BB% of 4.9 is a zone-expanders warning against a pitcher who will not walk him.
Mariners
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez | 710 | 152 | 21.4% | 44 | 6.2% |
| Randy Arozarena | 709 | 191 | 26.9% | 64 | 9.0% |
| Cal Raleigh | 705 | 188 | 26.7% | 97 | 13.8% |
| Josh Naylor | 600 | 83 | 13.8% | 48 | 8.0% |
| Mitch Garver | 290 | 80 | 27.6% | 30 | 10.3% |
| Dominic Canzone | 268 | 59 | 22.0% | 20 | 7.5% |
| Cole Young | 257 | 47 | 18.3% | 28 | 10.9% |
| Luke Raley | 219 | 64 | 29.2% | 19 | 8.7% |
| Rob Refsnyder | 209 | 54 | 25.8% | 24 | 11.5% |
| Leo Rivas | 111 | 24 | 21.6% | 20 | 18.0% |
| Will Wilson | 91 | 34 | 37.4% | 7 | 7.7% |
| Connor Joe | 80 | 20 | 25.0% | 7 | 8.8% |
Pallante is pitch-to-contact (2025 K%: 15.5; 2026 to date K%: 13.2). The Seattle hitters who strike out most often are Wilson (2025 K%: 37.4), Raley (2025 K%: 29.2), Garver (2025 K%: 27.6), Arozarena (2025 K%: 26.9), and Raleigh (2025 K%: 26.7) -- but Pallante historically will not generate the strikeouts to punish that. The more relevant read is BB%: Raleigh's 2025 BB% of 13.8 and Rivas's 2025 BB% of 18.0 are patient profiles that match Pallante's 2026-to-date BB% of 12.1. Free passes are the leverage risk for Pallante tonight.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Victor Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| Ramon Urias | 253 | 45.1% | 29.2% | 25.7% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Yohel Pozo | 133 | 40.6% | 33.1% | 26.3% |
| José Fermín | 46 | 37.0% | 32.6% | 30.4% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
Kirby's 2025 batted-ball profile is balanced (45.7% GB / 25.5% FB / 28.3% LD). Against that, Herrera's 2025 52.6% GB and Church's 2025 67.6% GB (small 37 BIP sample) are the profiles least equipped to drive the ball over a middle infield. Gorman (2025: 30.2% GB / 41.7% FB) is the one Cardinals bat most likely to lift -- the profile Kirby has punished in 2025 TTO1/TTO2 but surrendered to in TTO3.
Mariners
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez | 493 | 51.1% | 27.2% | 21.7% |
| Josh Naylor | 477 | 48.6% | 27.9% | 23.5% |
| Randy Arozarena | 424 | 46.9% | 31.4% | 21.7% |
| Cal Raleigh | 374 | 29.4% | 47.3% | 23.3% |
| Dominic Canzone | 191 | 48.2% | 24.6% | 27.2% |
| Cole Young | 171 | 39.2% | 38.0% | 22.8% |
| Mitch Garver | 170 | 37.6% | 40.0% | 22.4% |
| Rob Refsnyder | 122 | 47.5% | 27.9% | 24.6% |
| Luke Raley | 114 | 51.8% | 26.3% | 21.9% |
| Leo Rivas | 71 | 40.8% | 38.0% | 21.1% |
| Connor Joe | 50 | 40.0% | 32.0% | 28.0% |
| Will Wilson | 43 | 34.9% | 44.2% | 20.9% |
Pallante's career 61.2% GB / 18.3% FB profile meets a lineup that is mostly ground-ball oriented (Rodriguez 2025: 51.1% GB, Raley 51.8%, Naylor 48.6%, Canzone 48.2%, Refsnyder 47.5%, Arozarena 46.9%). Those bats play into Pallante's shape -- most at-bats end on the infield or in shallow outfield. The collision point is Cal Raleigh (2025: 29.4% GB / 47.3% FB) and to a lesser extent Garver (40.0% FB), Wilson (44.2% FB), and Young (38.0% FB). These are the hitters who can launch a Pallante sinker that catches too much plate.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | 162.2 | 111 | 15.5% | 62 | 8.7% | 1.79 |
| George Kirby | 126.0 | 137 | 26.1% | 29 | 5.5% | 4.72 |
Two very different pitching shapes. Kirby 2026 to date: 20.9% K%, 6.2% BB%. Kirby 2025 baseline: 26.1% K%, 5.5% BB%, 4.72 K/BB -- elite strike-thrower. Pallante 2026 to date: 13.2% K%, 12.1% BB%. Pallante 2025 baseline: 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.79 K/BB -- contact-manager with a walk ceiling. The 2026-to-date walk spike (12.1% BB%) is the ratio most out of line with Pallante's 2025 baseline, and it is the number to watch tonight at home.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Cal Raleigh vs Pallante. Raleigh's 2025 line vs RHP (.558 SLG, 42 HR in 547 PA, 13.8% BB%) is the biggest single-at-bat threat on the page. His career batted-ball profile (47.3% FB, .056 AVG on flies, .667 AVG on liners) tells you he either pops up or barrels. Pallante's 2025 GB/FB (61.2% / 18.3%) cuts against that, but a Pallante mistake with Raleigh on is a multi-run swing. The plate-appearance playbook is: walk him in a threat-neutral count rather than challenge.
Alec Burleson vs Kirby. Burleson is the Cardinals' most reliable matchup piece: 2-for-5 (.400/.400/.600) in a 5-PA BvP sample, and a .296/.353/.478 2025 line vs RHP over 419 PA. Kirby's 2025 vs-LHB OPS of .697 is his weaker split. If Kirby sees Burleson three times tonight, the third one lands in his TTO3 danger window -- the .972 OPS inning.
Kirby TTO3 window. Kirby's 2025 TTO3 line over 117 PA: .327 AVG, .645 SLG, .972 OPS, 9 HR. His TTO1 (.639 OPS) and TTO2 (.541 OPS) are elite-tier. The cliff is late. The Cardinals' game-plan anchor is pitch selection in the first two innings -- see fastballs, spoil to get the count deep, push Kirby to throw 40+ pitches through two. That is how TTO3 arrives before the seventh.
Baserunning X-factor. Three Seattle runners with 30+ career SB at 83-94% success (Arozarena, Naylor, Rodriguez). If Pallante's walk rate from 2026 to date (12.1% BB%) shows up tonight, the Mariners have the personnel to turn a walk into second base before the next pitch. The Cardinals' catching decision -- Pagés, Herrera, or Pozo -- is a live variable precisely because the threat volume is that high.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. Show Cal Raleigh's HR by count and pitch type vs RHP in 2025.
2. Show Alec Burleson's results vs RHP with runners in scoring position in 2025.
3. Show Andre Pallante's pitch mix vs LHB in 2025.
4. Show JoJo Romero's inherited-runner outcomes by inning in 2025.
5. Show George Kirby's TTO3 pitch selection and swing-and-miss rate in 2025.
6. Show Seattle team results vs ground-ball starters (GB% over 55) in 2025.
7. Show SB attempt rate for Arozarena, Naylor, and Rodriguez by catcher pop time in 2025.
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025