NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Reds16-9-L1
Cubs14-91.0W7
Cardinals14-101.5L1
Pirates13-102.0L1
Brewers13-102.0L1

AL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Guardians14-12-L1
Tigers13-120.5W1
Twins12-121.0L1
Sox9-143.5W2
Royals8-175.5L1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Apr 14CLEHomeW 6-5 (10)
Apr 13CLEHomeL 3-9
Apr 12BOSHomeL 3-9
Apr 11BOSHomeL 1-7
Apr 10BOSHomeW 3-2
Apr 8WSHAwayW 6-1
Apr 7WSHAwayW 7-6 (10)
Apr 6WSHAwayL 6-9
Apr 5DETAwayW 5-3
Apr 4DETAwayL 6-11

STARTING PITCHERS

Dustin May (R) -- Cardinals

2026: 3-2, 5.84 ERA, 24.2 IP across 5 GS. 20 K (18.9% K%), 5 BB (4.7% BB%), 33 H, 3 HR allowed, 1.54 WHIP, 41.3% GB%. Career (2025 baseline via section 2N): 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, 2.20 K/BB over 132.1 IP. May's 2026 walk rate has actually improved from his career mark -- the command is there even as the ERA is not.

Slade Cecconi (R) -- Guardians

2026: 0-3, 6.20 ERA, 24.2 IP across 5 GS. 20 K (17.4% K%), 12 BB (10.4% BB%), 27 H, 5 HR allowed, 1.58 WHIP, 50.9% GB%. Career (2025 baseline via section 2N): 20.0% K%, 5.9% BB%, 3.41 K/BB over 132.0 IP. The 2026 walk rate has nearly doubled his career mark -- the key deviation to track tonight.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Expected)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.250.730
2HerreraDHR.250.817
3Burleson1BL.333.849
4WalkerRFR.185.720
5Gorman3BL.280.755
6WinnSSR.136.441
7ChurchLFL.250.564
8PagésCR.188.410
9ScottCFL.133.355

Handedness: 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Pagés), 5 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church, Scott).

Guardians (Expected)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1KwanCFL.450.978
2DeLauterRFL.2861.135
3RamírezDHS.118.485
4Manzardo1BL.200.438
5ValeraLFL.5001.125
6Brito2BS.154.522
7Schneemann3BL.3331.052
8NaylorCL.083.321
9RocchioSSS.4741.249

Handedness: 0 RHB, 6 LHB (Kwan, DeLauter, Manzardo, Valera, Schneemann, Naylor).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No Phase 2 web search was performed for this run. For current injury and roster move updates, consult the Cardinals and Guardians team sources. The JSON active roster snapshot for both teams is complete as of the report-generation timestamp (26 players per team).

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Masyn Winn332.667.6671.000000
Alec Burleson331.333.333.333001
Victor Scott221.500.500.500000
Nolan Gorman220.000.000.000001

Small sample: Masyn Winn (3 PA), Alec Burleson (3 PA), Victor Scott (2 PA), Nolan Gorman (2 PA).

Four batters have any BvP history vs Cecconi and none has more than 3 PA. Winn 2-for-3 and Scott 1-for-2 are eye-catching but statistically meaningless. Burleson 1-for-3 is pedestrian. Gorman 0-for-2 with a K is the only negative signal. The Cardinals are facing Cecconi essentially blind.

Wetherholt, Herrera, Walker, Church, Pages -- No data.

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Cecconi (Urias, Pozo, Saggese, Fermin not present in the BvP data).

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Kyle Manzardo440.000.000.000002
Bo Naylor441.250.250.250002
Jose Ramirez431.333.500.333011
Steven Kwan431.333.500.333010
Daniel Schneemann221.500.5002.000101
George Valera1111.0001.0001.000000
Brayan Rocchio110.000.000.000001

Small sample: Kyle Manzardo (4 PA), Bo Naylor (4 PA), Jose Ramirez (4 PA), Steven Kwan (4 PA), Daniel Schneemann (2 PA), George Valera (1 PA), Brayan Rocchio (1 PA).

Seven of the nine CLE starters have BvP history vs May; all are small samples. Schneemann 1-for-2 HR and Valera 1-for-1 are the green flags for Cleveland, but at 2 and 1 PA those numbers do not project. Manzardo 0-for-4 with 2 K is the closest thing to a real trend -- and it is still only 4 PA. Ramirez and Kwan have each reached base twice in 4 PA (1 H, 1 BB).

DeLauter, Brito -- No data.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371
Victor Scott L332.221.310.31753175
Ivan Herrera R328.268.343.399102466
Nolan Gorman L309.201.294.349937111
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194
Pedro Pagés R276.225.264.36491272
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314

Cardinals facing Cecconi (RHP) deploy 5 LHB and 4 RHB. Burleson's .296/.353/.478 vs RHP is the best platoon bat in the lineup. Gorman's .201 AVG with 37 BB in 309 PA reflects discipline paired with contact issues (111 K). Church's .114 in 51 PA is sample-thin and alarming. Among RHB, Herrera (.268/.343/.399) is the quality at-bat; Walker's .200 AVG / .263 OBP vs RHP is the weakest regular matchup in the lineup. Wetherholt is not in the 2025 platoon table -- he enters the split fresh.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Jose Ramirez B486.268.354.496245157
Steven Kwan L478.285.345.422114040
Kyle Manzardo L442.242.324.4582242111
Daniel Schneemann L363.216.287.386123196
Bo Naylor L334.198.289.403123887
Brayan Rocchio B272.239.284.35141445
George Valera L50.256.360.5353715
Chase DeLauter L5.250.400.250010

The Guardians deploy 6 LHB and 3 switch-hitters -- zero RHB against May, who shows a clear platoon split (.756 OPS vs LHB, .642 vs RHB). Ramirez (.268/.354/.496 vs RHP, 24 HR) is the anchor. Kwan (.285/.345/.422, 40 BB / 40 K) is the contact machine. Manzardo's 22 HR in 442 PA vs RHP is the power threat on the weaker AVG profile. Valera's .535 SLG in 50 PA is small but loud. The lineup stacks against May's worse split top to bottom.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Slade Cecconivs LHB279.222.276.428.6501362
Slade Cecconivs RHB276.271.313.465.7361150
Dustin Mayvs LHB334.261.357.495.7561582
Dustin Mayvs RHB250.256.325.386.642641

Cecconi is tougher to square up for LHB (.222 AVG vs .271 vs RHB) but surrenders near-equal power (.428 vs .465 SLG). Cardinals' 5 LHB strike out more but can still go deep. May's platoon runs the other way: vs LHB .756 OPS (.495 SLG, 15 HR in 334 PA), vs RHB .642 OPS (.386 SLG). With CLE fielding 6 LHB plus 3 switch-hitters (who typically bat left-handed against RHP), May faces his uncomfortable split for 9 consecutive batters.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Slade CecconiAway25762.13.47641310
Slade CecconiHome29872.04.38482014
Dustin MayAway25857.16.28502612
Dustin MayHome32675.03.2473309

Today's game is at Busch Stadium -- May pitching at home (career 3.24 ERA over 75.0 IP), Cecconi pitching away (career 3.47 ERA over 62.1 IP). Both pitchers live in their stronger split. The home/away effect cancels; recency (May 5.84, Cecconi 6.20 in 2026) is the more reliable signal tonight.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Slade CecconiTTO1216.225.350.57545313
Slade CecconiTTO2208.271.495.766124013
Slade CecconiTTO3131.244.528.7728197
Dustin MayTTO1227.226.347.57355623
Dustin MayTTO2220.290.508.79894417
Dustin MayTTO3137.263.517.78072316

Both starters have near-identical TTO1 profiles (.573-.575 OPS). The jump comes in TTO2: Cecconi +.191 OPS, May +.225 OPS. For both pitchers, innings 4-6 are where lineups stop chasing unfamiliar pitches and start driving them. May holds up marginally better in TTO3 (.780 OPS) than Cecconi (.772). If either lineup reaches a TTO3 pass, leverage flips toward the bats. Watch the 5th and 6th innings for pitching changes.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Ryan Fernandez8450.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5%, 26 IR) is the elite high-leverage arm -- the one to spend on the first jam. McGreevy (100.0%, 3 IR) is a small sample. Leahy at 62.1% sits below average. Svanson 50.0%, Graceffo 54.5%, Fernandez 50.0% are all well below league with enough entries to matter. The margin of error narrows after Romero -- the Cardinals do not have a second plus-strand arm in this group.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Slade Cecconi38343.9%29.8%25.3%
Dustin May37244.1%28.2%26.6%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CLE

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Chase DeLauter.250.000--
Steven Kwan.243.557.059
Kyle Manzardo.187.634.087
Bo Naylor.145.574.076
Jose Ramirez.237.674.058
Brayan Rocchio.200.611.086
Daniel Schneemann.234.574.097
George Valera.125.625.167

Both starters are marginal GB pitchers (44% GB rate each). CLE's hitters punish line drives across the board: Kwan .557, Manzardo .634, Naylor .574, Ramirez .674, Rocchio .611, Schneemann .574, Valera .625. FB AVGs are all under .100 -- flyballs are outs. The damage zone is the line drive middle. If May keeps balls off the barrel on that plane, the lineup's extra-base damage stays capped.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Will Smith1156.04.98.255----
Dalton Rushing634.23.89.227----
Carlos Narváez421.04.71.299----
Austin Barnes212.14.38.250----
Connor Wong25.16.75.348----

The catchers in this table reflect May's tenure with prior teams -- Will Smith (56.0 IP, 4.98 ERA), Dalton Rushing (34.2 IP, 3.89 ERA), Carlos Narvaez (21.0 IP, 4.71 ERA), Austin Barnes (12.1 IP, 4.38 ERA), and Connor Wong (5.1 IP, 6.75 ERA). None of these catchers is on the Cardinals' active roster.

Tonight's starting catcher is Pedro Pages, who has 0 career IP paired with May in this dataset -- a fresh battery. That is a signal in itself: unfamiliar pop-time calibration and signal sequencing still being built. Watch for early mistake-call sequences in the first pass through the order, and for Cleveland testing pop-times with Ramirez and Kwan on first.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

CLE speed profile (career SB / CS / success%):

-- Jose Ramirez: 44 SB, 7 CS, 86.3%. Elite runner. Every time he reaches first, a steal is live.

-- Steven Kwan: 21 SB, 5 CS, 80.8%. Secondary threat. Typically tests arms when leading off an inning.

-- Daniel Schneemann: 9 SB, 3 CS, 75.0%. Opportunistic but not a forcer.

-- Brayan Rocchio: 8 SB, 4 CS, 66.7%. Below break-even; not a green-light runner.

-- Kyle Manzardo: 2 SB, 0 CS. Not a baserunning factor.

-- Bo Naylor: 1 SB, 2 CS, 33.3%. Sits once he reaches.

The fresh battery (Pages + May, 0 IP together) raises the steal threat for Ramirez and Kwan specifically. Those are the two names to track in early innings.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Victor ScottCF136360.982
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Pedro PagésC110650.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Nolan Gorman3B541160.950
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Nolan Gorman2B28910.990
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Ivan HerreraC14010.989
Nolan Gorman1B7401.000
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Victor ScottRF7001.000
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Victor ScottLF4001.000
Ivan HerreraLF4001.000
Pedro Pagés1B2101.000
Pedro Pagés2B1001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Pedro Pages (.994 Fld% in 110 G at C) is primary tonight. Masyn Winn (.994 Fld% in 129 G at SS, 64 DP) anchors the infield. Victor Scott covers CF (.982 in 136 G). Gorman's 3B numbers (.950 Fld%, 6 E in 54 G) are the soft spot in today's alignment -- ground balls down the line are a live concern. Burleson's cross-positional usage (50 G at 1B, 41 LF, 34 RF) is the defensive flex card for late-inning matchup moves.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium plays as a pitcher-leaning venue historically. Cardinals vs Guardians head-to-head: 2025 STL 3-0, 2024 STL 2-1, 2023 STL 1-2. STL is 6-3 across the last three seasons. This 3-game series is tied 1-1 entering tonight; today's result decides the set.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Victor Scott46311124.0%429.1%
Ivan Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Nolan Gorman40213633.8%4711.7%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Pedro Pagés38910727.5%194.9%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%

Flags: Gorman 33.8% K% and Walker 31.8% K% -- both well above the 25% red line. Pages 4.9% BB% and Church 4.6% BB% are under the 6% floor -- they do not work counts. Burleson (14.5% K, 7.2% BB) is the most disciplined bat in the lineup.

Guardians

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Steven Kwan693608.7%557.9%
Jose Ramirez6727411.0%669.8%
Kyle Manzardo53113525.4%489.0%
Daniel Schneemann42211727.7%389.0%
Bo Naylor4149923.9%4510.9%
Brayan Rocchio3837720.1%225.7%
George Valera481327.1%714.6%

CLE contrasts sharply with STL. Kwan (8.7% K) and Ramirez (11.0% K) are among the hardest outs in baseball. Manzardo 25.4%, Schneemann 27.7%, Valera 27.1% are the strikeout-prone middle of the order. Valera's 14.6% BB% paired with high K% is classic three-true-outcomes. May's career 21.1% K% has room in the middle of the CLE order but will struggle to finish Kwan and Ramirez at the top.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Ivan Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Victor Scott25940.2%32.0%27.8%
Pedro Pagés24344.9%30.9%24.3%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nolan Gorman19930.2%41.7%28.1%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%

Gorman is the lineup's fly-ball outlier (30.2% GB / 41.7% FB) -- the HR source tonight against Cecconi's 43.9% GB profile. Church's 67.6% GB rate on 37 BIP is a tiny but extreme contact-on-the-ground signature.

Guardians

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Steven Kwan55539.3%30.6%30.1%
Jose Ramirez49535.8%38.2%26.1%
Kyle Manzardo31534.0%40.0%26.0%
Brayan Rocchio26245.8%26.7%27.5%
Daniel Schneemann25049.6%28.8%21.6%
Bo Naylor24933.3%42.2%24.5%
George Valera3053.3%20.0%26.7%
Chase DeLauter580.0%0.0%20.0%

CLE leans fly-ball in the heart: Manzardo 40.0% FB, Naylor 42.2% FB, Ramirez 38.2% FB. Against May's 44.1% GB career profile, the two forces meet in the middle -- keeping the ball on the ground requires working below their barrels. Schneemann (49.6% GB) is the one true ground-ball threat in the order and gets routed toward Gorman at 3B. DeLauter's 80.0% GB on 5 BIP is noise. Kwan's 30.1% LD rate is the highest in the lineup -- classic Kwan, finding grass.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Dustin May132.112321.1%569.6%2.20
Slade Cecconi132.010920.0%325.9%3.41

Career, Cecconi (3.41 K/BB) is sharper than May (2.20 K/BB) -- a cleaner ratio driven by a lower walk rate. But 2026 flips it: May has posted 4.0 K/BB (20 K, 5 BB in 24.2 IP) while Cecconi sits at 1.67 K/BB (20 K, 12 BB in 24.2 IP). Recent form runs opposite the career baseline. Today's version of each pitcher is not the 2025 version.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Jose Ramirez vs Dustin May

Career BvP 1-for-3 with 1 BB, 1 K (4 PA -- small sample). Against RHP 2025: .268/.354/.496 with 24 HR and 51 BB in 486 PA. Career running game 44 SB at 86.3%. The threat extends past the at-bat -- with a fresh battery behind the plate, every inning he leads off is live for steal or extra-base action.

Daniel Schneemann vs Dustin May

Career BvP 1-for-2 with a HR in 2 PA -- a meaningless sample on its own, but against RHP in 363 PA he hits .216/.287/.386 with 12 HR. The 27.7% K% makes him a swing-and-miss, but he's the non-obvious power threat batting 7th, positioned to swing at the end of a TTO2 pass.

Cardinals LHB vs Slade Cecconi

Cecconi career vs LHB: .222/.276/.428 over 279 PA, 13 HR (one every 21 PA). Cardinals deploy 5 LHB -- Wetherholt (leadoff, no 2025 platoon baseline), Burleson (.296/.353/.478 vs RHP -- the best matchup), Gorman (41.7% FB rate, 33.8% K% -- boom or bust), Church (.114 in 51 PA -- cold), Scott (.221 in 332 PA). Burleson and Gorman are the power pressure points.

Watchlist

-- May TTO2 window. OPS climbs from .573 (TTO1, 227 PA) to .798 (TTO2, 220 PA) -- a +.225 jump. The leverage flip lands in innings 4-6.

-- Cecconi walk rate. 10.4% BB% in 2026 (12 BB / 24.2 IP) vs 5.9% career. Free runners build innings without needing hits.

-- Cardinals bullpen fork. Romero 88.5% strand (26 IR) vs Svanson 50.0% (26 IR). Stanek gave up 3 ER in 0.2 IP yesterday. Which arm enters with runners on decides the middle innings.

-- Battery provenance. May's career catchers (Smith, Rushing, Narvaez, Barnes, Wong) are prior-team pairings. Pages starts tonight with 0 IP together with May in this dataset.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

-- May pitch-by-pitch TTO2 2026: Which pitch shape breaks down in the second pass?

-- Cecconi walks per start 2026: Is the walk spike consistent or concentrated in 1-2 outings?

-- Ramirez SB attempts vs Pages career: How has the dynamic looked previously?

-- Cardinals bullpen innings 7-9 ERA last 14 days: Is the back-end stable after Stanek's Apr 14 blowup?

-- Cleveland runs in innings 4-6 this season: Do they exploit TTO2 windows?

-- Wetherholt 2-HR games rookie season: How rare is a 2-HR walk-off game at this age?

-- May home GB% vs opponent LHB 2026: Is he still living on grounders at Busch?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025