Cardinals Deep Scout -- April 10, 2026

BOS @ STL | Busch Stadium | 7:15 PM CT | Game 1 of 3

SECTION 1: 2026 SEASON CONTEXT

NL Central Standings

Team	W-L	GB	Strk
Brewers	8-4	-	L2
Reds	8-5	0.5	L2
Pirates	7-5	1.0	L1
Cardinals	7-5	1.0	W2
Cubs	6-6	2.0	W2

AL East Standings

Team	W-L	GB	Strk
Yankees	8-4	-	L2
Orioles	6-6	2.0	W3
Rays	5-7	3.0	L2
Jays	5-7	3.0	W1
Red Sox	4-8	4.0	W2

Last 10 Cardinals Games

Date	Opp	Result
4/8	@WSH	W 6-1
4/7	@WSH	W 7-6 (10)
4/6	@WSH	L 6-9
4/5	@DET	W 5-3
4/4	@DET	L 6-11
4/3	@DET	L 0-4
4/2	@DET	W 4-2
4/1	NYM	W 2-1 (11)
3/31	NYM	W 3-0
3/30	NYM	L 2-4

Starting Pitchers

Dustin May (STL, RHP) -- 2026: 0-2, 15.95 ERA, 7.1 IP, 7 K, 3 BB, 2.73 WHIP, 17 H, 2 HR in 2 GS. Both starts on the road. Career home/away split: 3.24 ERA at home (75.0 IP) vs 6.28 ERA on the road (57.1 IP). Tonight is his first home start as a Cardinal. Heavy sinker pitcher.

Connelly Early (BOS, LHP) -- 2026: 0-0, 2.89 ERA, 9.1 IP, 10 K, 6 BB, 1.50 WHIP, 8 H, 0 HR in 2 GS. Rookie making his third career start. Elite K rate (36.7%) on just 79 career BF. Career away: 3.55 ERA vs 1.74 at home. Pitching away tonight.

Projected Lineups

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-04-08)

Player	Pos	Bats
Burleson	1B	L
Herrera	C	R
Wetherholt	SS	L
Walker	RF	R
Fermin	2B	R
Winn	SS	R
Church	LF	L
Gorman	2B	L
Pages	C	R
Urias	3B	R
Saggese	2B	R
Scott	CF	L
Pozo	C	R

13 players listed from roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

Red Sox (From active roster -- no batting order confirmed)

Player	Pos	Bats
Jarren Duran	LF	L
Roman Anthony	RF	L
Marcelo Mayer	3B	L
Masataka Yoshida	LF	L
Wilyer Abreu	RF	L
Willson Contreras	1B	R
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	R
Trevor Story	SS	R
Caleb Durbin	3B	R
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	SS	R
Connor Wong	C	R
Carlos Narvaez	C	R
Andruw Monasterio	SS	R

Injuries

Cardinals

Lars Nootbaar (OF) -- 60-day IL, heel surgery (Haglund's deformities). No return date.

Hunter Dobbins (RHP) -- 15-day IL, torn right ACL. Rehab with Triple-A Memphis.

Matt Pushard (RHP) -- 15-day IL, right knee patellar tendonitis (placed 3/30).

Red Sox

Triston Casas (1B) -- 10-day IL, ruptured left patellar tendon. Expected May at earliest.

Tanner Houck (RHP) -- 60-day IL, torn UCL. Out until late 2026/early 2027.

Kutter Crawford (RHP) -- 15-day IL, right wrist. Expected late April/early May.

Johan Oviedo (RHP) -- 15-day IL, right elbow strain.

Justin Slaten (RHP) -- IL, right oblique strain.

Romy Gonzalez (INF/OF) -- 60-day IL, left shoulder surgery. Expected June.

Series Context

Game 1 of 3. Interleague at Busch Stadium. Cardinals return home after a 4-2 road trip (Detroit, Washington). Red Sox arrive with two straight wins over Milwaukee. Jordan Walker has homered in 4 of his last 5 games. Head-to-head: Cardinals went 0-3 vs Boston in 2025, 2-1 in 2024, 3-0 in 2023, 1-2 in 2022.

SECTION 2: HISTORICAL DEPTH

All historical data from 2025 season or career totals through 2025 via Retrosheet/Lahman databases.

2a: BvP -- Cardinals Batters vs Connelly Early

No career BvP data exists. Early has faced only 79 career batters, all in the AL. First interleague meeting.

Lineup vs Early: All players -- No data.

Bench BvP Notes: No significant bench BvP history.

2b: BvP -- Red Sox Batters vs Dustin May

No career BvP data exists. May's entire career was in the NL (Dodgers). First time facing this Red Sox lineup.

All Red Sox players -- No data.

Bench BvP Notes: No significant bench BvP history.

2c: Platoon Splits -- Cardinals vs LHP (2025)

Player	Bats	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Winn	R	163	.255	.313	.349	2	11	31
Scott	L	131	.204	.290	.241	0	11	36
Burleson	L	127	.271	.310	.398	3	7	20
Herrera	R	124	.330	.455	.660	9	19	18
Urias	R	118	.262	.322	.421	4	10	31
Pages	R	113	.243	.292	.359	2	7	35
Walker	R	107	.255	.318	.347	2	8	32
Gorman	L	93	.220	.301	.439	5	10	25
Saggese	R	68	.273	.279	.348	1	1	20
Pozo	R	42	.275	.286	.425	1	1	6
Church	L	14	.417	.417	.500	0	0	4
Fermin	R	11	.300	.364	.400	0	1	2

Small sample warning: Church (14 PA), Fermin (11 PA).

Herrera is the standout: .330/.455/.660 with 9 HR in 124 PA vs LHP. Elite production.

2c: Platoon Splits -- Red Sox vs RHP (2025)

Player	Bats	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Duran	L	493	.273	.359	.481	13	50	115
Story	R	491	.265	.308	.433	18	24	136
Rafaela	R	432	.256	.302	.407	9	22	87
Contreras	R	418	.251	.333	.433	15	28	106
Durbin	R	398	.257	.341	.387	7	26	48
Kiner-Falefa	R	364	.266	.305	.343	0	16	60
Abreu	L	354	.246	.316	.479	21	34	90
Anthony	L	205	.299	.424	.479	4	32	46
Yoshida	L	180	.287	.328	.421	4	9	21
Wong	R	142	.194	.255	.248	0	10	30
Mayer	L	109	.248	.294	.446	4	7	31
Monasterio	R	86	.268	.302	.415	2	3	22

Boston's LHB group is dangerous vs RHP: Anthony (.299/.424/.479) has elite on-base skills; Duran (.273/.359/.481, 13 HR) provides power and speed; Abreu (.246/.316/.479, 21 HR) has raw power despite lower average. These three LHB directly attack May's LHB vulnerability (.261/.357/.495).

Story (18 HR) and Contreras (15 HR) provide RHB power but with high K rates (136 and 106 K respectively).

2d: Pitcher Platoon Splits

Pitcher	vs	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	K
Early	vs RHB	65	.279	.323	.311	.590	0	17
Early	vs LHB	33	.194	.242	.226	.420	0	18
May	vs LHB	334	.261	.357	.495	.756	15	82
May	vs RHB	250	.256	.325	.386	.642	6	41

Early is significantly more hittable vs RHB (.279, .590 OPS) than vs LHB (.194, .420 OPS). Cardinals have 7+ RHB -- the primary offensive path.

May is more vulnerable to LHB (.261/.357/.495, 15 HR) than RHB (.256/.325/.386, 6 HR). Boston has 5 LHB (Duran, Anthony, Abreu, Mayer, Yoshida) who could exploit this.

2d-HA: Pitcher Home/Away Splits

Pitcher	Split	BF	IP	ERA	K	BB	HR
Early	Away	57	12.2	3.55	21	4	0
Early	Home	41	10.1	1.74	14	1	0
May	Away	258	57.1	6.28	50	26	12
May	Home	326	75.0	3.24	73	30	9

Today at Busch Stadium -- Early pitching away, May at home. May's home/away split is dramatic: 3.24 vs 6.28 ERA. First home start of 2026.

2e: TTO Splits (Times Through Order)

Pitcher	TTO	PA	AVG	SLG	OPS	HR	K	BB
Early	TTO1	45	.163	.209	.372	0	21	2
Early	TTO2	44	.350	.375	.725	0	11	3
Early	TTO3	9	.222	.222	.444	0	3	0
May	TTO1	227	.226	.347	.573	5	56	23
May	TTO2	220	.290	.508	.798	9	44	17
May	TTO3	137	.263	.517	.780	7	23	16

Early's TTO2 cliff: .163 to .350 AVG (187-point jump). Both pitchers fade -- the middle innings (4-6) decide this game.

Small sample warning: Early's entire TTO dataset is 98 PA. TTO3 is only 9 PA.

2f: Inherited Runners Profile (Cardinals Bullpen)

Reliever	IR Entries	IR Total	Scored	Strand%
Leahy	21	29	11	62.1%
Romero	17	26	3	88.5%
Svanson	15	26	13	50.0%
Graceffo	8	11	5	54.5%
O'Brien	8	10	3	70.0%
McGreevy	1	3	0	100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5%) is elite. Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are liabilities with runners on.

2g: Batted Ball Matchup

Pitcher Batted Ball

Pitcher	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Early	57	49.1%	36.8%	14.0%
May	372	44.1%	28.2%	26.6%

Hitter Batted Ball (BOS vs Batted Ball Type)

Hitter	Type	AB	H	AVG
Abreu	fly	118	14	.119
Abreu	ground	86	24	.279
Abreu	line	49	33	.673
Anthony	fly	35	7	.200
Anthony	ground	88	26	.295
Anthony	line	42	34	.810
Contreras	fly	91	10	.110
Contreras	ground	147	36	.245
Contreras	line	90	60	.667
Duran	fly	135	16	.119
Duran	ground	191	52	.272
Duran	line	117	77	.658
Durbin	fly	128	8	.062
Durbin	ground	170	38	.224
Durbin	line	96	60	.625
Kiner-Falefa	fly	73	6	.082
Kiner-Falefa	ground	217	51	.235
Kiner-Falefa	line	89	57	.640
Mayer	fly	20	4	.200
Mayer	ground	42	6	.143
Mayer	line	20	15	.750
Monasterio	fly	37	4	.108
Monasterio	ground	29	11	.379
Monasterio	line	23	15	.652
Rafaela	fly	135	17	.126
Rafaela	ground	191	51	.267
Rafaela	line	91	51	.560
Story	fly	136	14	.103
Story	ground	193	63	.326
Story	line	90	63	.700
Wong	fly	36	4	.111
Wong	ground	63	12	.190
Wong	line	24	15	.625
Yoshida	fly	30	2	.067
Yoshida	ground	98	23	.235
Yoshida	line	38	25	.658

Key takeaway: Story hits .326 on ground balls and .700 on line drives -- if May's 26.6% LD rate holds, Story could be dangerous. Anthony's .810 line drive AVG is the highest in the BOS lineup. May needs to keep his LD% down tonight.

2h: Battery Pairing (Dustin May Career)

Catcher	G	IP	ERA	AVG
Will Smith	11	56.0	4.98	.255
Dalton Rushing	6	34.2	3.89	.227
Carlos Narvaez	4	21.0	4.71	.299
Austin Barnes	2	12.1	4.38	.250
Connor Wong	2	5.1	6.75	.348

All from May's Dodgers career. Tonight he works with a Cardinals catcher for the first time.

2i: Baserunning Matchup

No baserunning data available.

2j: Defensive Context (Cardinals, 2025)

Player	POS	G	DP	E	Fld%
Burleson	OF	75	1	1	.992
Burleson	1B	50	27	4	.990
Church	OF	30	0	1	.983
Fermin	2B	15	5	0	1.000
Fermin	3B	5	0	0	1.000
Fermin	OF	5	0	0	1.000
Gorman	3B	54	11	6	.950
Gorman	2B	28	9	1	.990
Gorman	1B	7	4	0	1.000
Herrera	C	14	0	1	.989
Pages	C	110	6	5	.994
Pozo	C	46	0	5	.982
Pozo	1B	6	2	0	1.000
Saggese	2B	35	24	4	.973
Saggese	SS	33	7	1	.988
Saggese	3B	18	0	2	.939
Scott	OF	147	3	6	.983
Urias	3B	68	18	3	.983
Urias	2B	25	7	0	1.000
Urias	3B	10	2	1	.944
Walker	OF	108	2	4	.981
Winn	SS	129	64	3	.994

Minimum 5 games at position. Sorted by player, then games.

Winn at SS (.994 Fld%, 64 DP) anchors the defense. Gorman at 3B (.950 Fld%, 6 E in 54 G) is the concern.

2k: Ballpark Context (Head-to-Head)

Season	STL W	STL L
2025	0	3
2024	2	1
2023	3	0
2022	1	2

Busch Stadium is neutral-to-slightly-pitcher-friendly. Cardinals were swept 0-3 by Boston in 2025 but swept them 3-0 in 2023.

2l: Batter K%/BB% Profile (2025)

Cardinals

Player	PA	K	K%	BB	BB%
Burleson	544	79	14.5%	39	7.2%
Winn	537	102	19.0%	34	6.3%
Scott	463	111	24.0%	42	9.1%
Herrera	450	84	18.7%	43	9.6%
Gorman	402	136	33.8%	47	11.7%
Walker	396	126	31.8%	29	7.3%
Urias	391	88	22.5%	27	6.9%
Pages	389	107	27.5%	19	4.9%
Saggese	295	83	28.1%	16	5.4%
Pozo	168	22	13.1%	7	4.2%
Fermin	70	10	14.3%	8	11.4%
Church	65	18	27.7%	3	4.6%

Red Sox

Player	PA	K	K%	BB	BB%
Duran	696	169	24.3%	60	8.6%
Story	654	176	26.9%	33	5.0%
Rafaela	587	117	19.9%	28	4.8%
Contreras	563	142	25.2%	44	7.8%
Durbin	506	50	9.9%	30	5.9%
Kiner-Falefa	459	77	16.8%	17	3.7%
Abreu	417	101	24.2%	40	9.6%
Anthony	303	84	27.7%	40	13.2%
Yoshida	205	24	11.7%	10	4.9%
Wong	188	42	22.3%	16	8.5%
Mayer	136	41	30.1%	8	5.9%
Monasterio	135	32	23.7%	7	5.2%

Key matchup: Durbin (9.9% K) and Yoshida (11.7% K) are nearly impossible to strike out. May's 21.1% K rate will not overpower them -- he needs weak contact. Anthony's 13.2% BB rate means free baserunners if May nibbles.

2m: Batter Batted Ball Profile (2025)

Cardinals

Player	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Burleson	398	42.0%	33.4%	24.6%
Winn	376	39.6%	34.0%	26.3%
Herrera	285	52.6%	21.8%	25.6%
Scott	259	40.2%	32.0%	27.8%
Urias	253	45.1%	29.2%	25.7%
Pages	243	44.9%	30.9%	24.3%
Walker	231	48.9%	29.4%	21.6%
Gorman	199	30.2%	41.7%	28.1%
Saggese	189	41.8%	29.6%	28.6%
Pozo	133	40.6%	33.1%	26.3%
Fermin	46	37.0%	32.6%	30.4%
Church	37	67.6%	21.6%	10.8%

Red Sox

Player	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Duran	443	43.1%	30.5%	26.4%
Story	419	46.1%	32.5%	21.5%
Rafaela	417	45.8%	32.4%	21.8%
Durbin	394	43.1%	32.5%	24.4%
Kiner-Falefa	379	57.3%	19.3%	23.5%
Contreras	328	44.8%	27.7%	27.4%
Abreu	253	34.0%	46.6%	19.4%
Yoshida	166	59.0%	18.1%	22.9%
Anthony	165	53.3%	21.2%	25.5%
Wong	123	51.2%	29.3%	19.5%
Monasterio	89	32.6%	41.6%	25.8%
Mayer	82	51.2%	24.4%	24.4%

Key cross-reference: Abreu's 46.6% FB rate opposes May's 44.1% GB tendency -- if Abreu elevates, his 21 HR vs RHP says the power is real. Kiner-Falefa (57.3% GB) and Yoshida (59.0% GB) play into May's ground ball game -- he should dominate these at-bats. Gorman's 41.7% FB rate (STL highest) opposes Early's 49.1% GB tendency.

2n: Pitcher K%/BB% Profile

Pitcher	IP	K	K%	BB	BB%	K/BB
May	132.1	123	21.1%	56	9.6%	2.20
Early	19.1	29	36.7%	4	5.1%	7.25

Early's 7.25 K/BB ratio is extraordinary but built on 79 BF. May's 584 BF provides much more reliable data.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. "How does Dustin May perform at home vs on the road in his career?"

2. "What are Ivan Herrera's career stats against left-handed pitching?"

3. "How do Red Sox left-handed batters perform against right-handed pitching?"

4. "Which Red Sox hitters have the lowest strikeout rate?"

5. "What is the Cardinals bullpen inherited runners strand rate?"

6. "Cardinals vs Red Sox head-to-head record last 4 seasons"

7. "Which batters have the highest ground ball rate on the Red Sox?"

2026 CARDINALS BULLPEN -- FIRST 12 GAMES

FIRST 12 GAMES vs FULL SEASON

Every Cardinals season since 1950. Bullpen ERA through first 12 games (Retrosheet) vs full-season ERA. Hover for details.

WHEN THE BULLPEN STARTED THIS BADLY

Cardinals seasons with a 5.00+ bullpen ERA through 12 games (1950-2025). Every single one saw the ERA drop.

Season	First 12	Full yr	Change	W-L	BB/9	Result
2026	5.33	--	--	--	5.69	12 GP
1959	7.91	4.88	-3.04	71-83	5.59
2017	7.34	3.81	-3.53	83-79	5.24
1980	7.09	3.93	-3.16	74-88	3.71
1954	7.07	5.46	-1.61	72-82	5.07
2004	6.38	3.01	-3.37	105-57	4.42	NL
1998	6.33	4.23	-2.10	83-79	5.70
2013	6.09	3.45	-2.64	97-65	3.18	NL
1951	5.75	3.92	-1.84	81-73	6.20
1964	5.64	3.33	-2.31	93-69	4.43	WS
1965	5.40	3.50	-1.90	80-81	4.37
2014	5.35	3.62	-1.72	90-72	3.21	NLCS
1953	5.19	4.70	-0.50	83-71	4.15
2009	5.02	3.67	-1.35	91-71	2.87	PS

2026 RELIEVERS -- THE DAMAGE REPORT

Pitcher	G	IP	ERA	H	BB	K	HR	WHIP	IR	IRS	Str%
O'Brien	7	7.1	0.00	4	0	7	0	0.545	2	0	100%
Romero	6	6.2	0.00	4	2	4	0	0.900	6	0	100%
Graceffo	4	4.2	1.93	1	4	2	0	1.071	5	0	100%
Soriano	5	6.0	3.00	3	3	3	0	1.000	0	0	--
Bruihl	7	6.1	5.68	5	6	3	0	1.737	5	4	20%
Stanek	6	5.2	6.35	7	5	8	1	2.118	3	2	33%
Svanson	6	7.2	11.74	12	5	6	3	2.217	2	2	0%
Roycroft	5	3.2	12.27	8	5	3	1	3.545	3	3	0%
Pushard	1	1.0	27.00	3	1	1	0	4.000	0	0	--
Total	--	49.0	5.33	47	31	37	5	1.592	26	11	58%

WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS -- HOW THEIR BULLPENS STARTED

Season	First 12 ERA	Full ERA	W-L	Note
1964	5.64	3.33	93-69	Worse start than 2026
1982	4.50	3.10	92-70
2006	3.93	4.06	83-78
2011	3.65	3.73	90-72
1967	2.27	3.20	101-60